The Ladies Semi Finals have been played, but the Gentlemen's Semi Finals are set for Friday.
My thoughts can be read bekow.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: The winning run at Wimbledon continues for Novak Djokovic who is a huge favourite to win the title here for the third time in succession. There is pressure on the World Number 1 as he looks to match the Grand Slam totals of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, while Novak Djokovic is also looking to complete a calendar Grand Slam, but he is vastly more experienced than the three other remaining players in the draw and the history at Wimbledon is hard to ignore.
Novak Djokovic was able to beat Marton Fucsovics in the Quarter Final without too many issues, although the latter didn't disgrace himself in the straight sets loss. Ultimately Fucsovics did not have enough firepower to keep Novak Djokovic at bay and the Serb was able to break four times which means he has managed to do that in each match played in SW19 this year.
The serve continues to be an important weapon for Novak Djokovic, but he is likely going to expect a more challenging match against Denis Shapovalov who has a game that is very pleasing on the eye. The young Canadian is playing in his first Grand Slam Semi Final having come from 2-1 down to beat Karen Khachanov in five sets in his second Grand Slam Quarter Final, while the performances in the build up to Wimbledon on the grass were plenty encouraging.
He was a touch fortunate to get through the First Round and then was the beneficiary of a walkover, but Denis Shapovalov has looked strong in the last three Rounds. The return of serve has been highly effective in those last three wins and that has been a part of the Denis Shapovalov tennis which has perhaps let him down previously.
We all know that the Canadian has a very big serve which can put pressure on opponents, but Denis Shapovalov is going to have to find more against Novak Djokovic who has beaten him in all six previous matches on the Tour. The last of those came on the hard courts in Australia earlier this year, and Novak Djokovic has dropped just two sets against this opponent which gives him a huge mental edge.
Their sole meeting at a Grand Slam was won in four sets by Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, but this is the first time they will play on grass. It may help Denis Shapovalov who has only held 68% of his service games played against Djokovic, but I do wonder if he will have as much joy on the return as Shapovalov has enjoyed in the last three Rounds at Wimbledon.
In their previous matches, Novak Djokovic has held 93% of the service games he has played against Denis Shapovalov. Since their meeting at the Australian Open in January 2019, Novak Djokovic has dropped his serve twice in five matches against Denis Shapovalov and I think the favourite is likely going to find the breaks of serve to move past this handicap line.
Matteo Berrettini-Hubert Hurkacz over 40.5 games: A huge opportunity has opened up for both Matteo Berrettini and Hubert Hurkacz as they get set to play in the Wimbledon Semi Final on Friday, although the tougher path has been tread by the underdog. Hubert Hurkacz has beaten both Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer in the last two Rounds and became the first player to ever bagel Federer at Wimbledon as the Pole ran through the third and final set in a straight sets win.
So while Hubert Hurkacz has two top ten wins, Matteo Berrettini has not played anyone above World Number 19 when beating Felix Auger-Aliassime in four sets in the Quarter Final. It was easily the most challenging match the Italian has played in the tournament so far, but he was able to play the big points well enough to edge past his opponent and Matteo Berrettini's run is far less of a surprise than the Hurkacz run.
Matteo Berrettini has backed up his success at Queens Club to reach the Semi Final here, but Hubert Hurkacz had suffered early defeats at both Stuttgart and Halle before arriving in London. The latter did not win a set in those losses, but the performances at Wimbledon have been hugely impressive from Hubert Hurkacz who has dropped his serve just four times in the tournament so far.
Both of these players are hugely reliant on the big serve and I do think that is going to be the key to the outcome of the match with tie-breakers also a real possibility.
The Italian did not serve as well as he would have liked in the Quarter Final, but even then he was able to hold of Felix Auger-Aliassime in the big moments and Matteo Berrettini has only dropped serve five times himself. He has a big game full of aggressive tennis which should be well suited to the grass, but Hubert Hurkacz is going to bring a new kind of pressure as he looks to close to the net and try and force Berrettini to pass him over and over again.
Hubert Hurkacz is going to be heading into this match off an emotional win over his idol Roger Federer and I do wonder if he is going to perhaps feel the effects of that going into his maiden Grand Slam Semi Final. Matteo Berrettini has had more experience at this level of the Tour and that may give him the edge, but previous matches between the players suggests there won't be much between them.
They have one win apiece with the more recent being a Hubert Hurkacz straight sets win over Matteo Berrettini at the Miami Masters in 2019. Both will feel they are improved players from that last match, but what has been clear is the importance of the serve with both being able to produce big efforts behind that shot.
We should see more of the same here and my slight edge is with Matteo Berrettini who has had the stronger overall Wimbledon and also showed plenty of grass court ability when winning at Queens. However, I do think Hubert Hurkacz is playing at a really good level behind his serve and that is going to see this Semi Final go a little longer and deeper than I anticipate the other Semi Final will be.
Big serves could be the order of the day here and I will look for at least four sets to be played which should see the total game line being surpassed.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini-Hubert Hurkacz Over 40.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 61-49, + 10.98 Units (220 Units Staked, + 4.99% Yield)
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