College Football Picks- Bowl Games 2021 (December 29-January 2)

The final thread for the College Football Bowl Season will focus on the big games leading up to the New Year and that includes both College Football PlayOff games before the National Championship.

Motivations can be hard to figure out for the top schools with key players opting out of Bowl Games if they are heading to the NFL, and especially if they are not going to be playing in one of the premium post-season games.

It is something to keep in mind with the final few days of the College Football season in front of us.

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Maryland Terrapins Pick: Two teams who have the same record heading into this Bowl Game are looking to secure a victory that will see them end up with a winning record. The losing team will have a losing record though and that should bring some motivation onto the field for the Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) and Maryland Terrapins (6-6).

Both of these teams secured their Bowl eligibility by winning their last regular season game, but the season will be looked back upon vastly differently from the eyes of the players on opposite sidelines. The Terrapins have not been in a Bowl Game since 2016, while they have not won a post-season game since 2010, and a win on Wednesday will give Maryland a winning record for the first time since 2014.

Head Coach Mike Locksley has seen his team steadily progress and this is his third year in charge of the Terrapins. He has admitted that the extra Bowl practices will stand Maryland in good stead in 2022 and this is a team that looks capable of building on what they have laid down in 2021.

Excitement around the Maryland camp may be a much different feeling than the one the Hokies will be playing with. Justin Fuente was not able to escape another sub-par season as Head Coach of Virginia Tech and that is mainly down to the expectations around this school which means they demand winning seasons every season.

There was a real fear that the Hokies were going to have a losing record in three of four seasons and so it was no surprise that Fuente was fired, although a win over rivals Virginia has given the Hokies a chance to avoid that fate. They will have to win this game, but the Hokies have lost their last three Bowl Games.

New Head Coach Brent Pry will not be on the sidelines for the Hokies and this is a team that will be short-handed in the Bowl Game with a number of players opting out. Quarter Back Braxton Burmeister has decided he will transfer to another school despite starting every game for the Hokies this season and this does feel like a game that is more of a dead rubber for Virginia Tech than the Maryland Terrapins.

The layers have cottoned on with the spread moving six points from the opening line- Virginia Tech had been set as the favourite, but it feels like the correct move to have the Terrapins go into the Bowl Game laying the points. I think they can show off their Offensive firepower to pull clear of the Hokies in this one with the uncertainty that the latter will be dealing with ahead of this game too.

Maryland do have a strong balance on the Offensive side of the ball, although they may not have as much room to run the ball as they found towards the end of the regular season. The Hokies Defensive Line have been proud of being able to clamp down on the run, but there are some huge holes in the Secondary which can be exposed by Tua's younger brother, Taulia Tagovailoa.

A Hokies pass rush can cause some problems, but even then I would expect Maryland to move the ball with consistency in this one as long as Taulia Tagovailoa can make sure he avoids any mistakes in the passing game. That will put some pressure on the Virginia Tech Offensive unit who are going to be missing some key players in the Bowl Game and I think it will be enough for the Terrapins to come away with a big win.

I don't think Virginia Tech will go away quietly and that is because they should still be able to run the ball despite losing key Offensive playmakers. Over the last three games the Virginia Tech Offensive Line have taken over at the line of scrimmage and this Terrapins Defensive Line have given up some big gains on the ground.

The problem for the Hokies is that they are going to have to use an inexperienced Quarter Back with Braxton Burmeister out of the line up. I am not sure they will be able to exploit the Maryland Secondary as well as they would like and the motivation on the Virginia Tech sidelines may not be as high as the Terrapins with things changing at the Coaching positions for 2022.

Neither team has been much to back at the betting window, but Maryland are 5-1 against the spread in their last six non-Conference games and I think they will do enough to win this one and cover the mark.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Clemson Tigers Pick: After the successes of recent seasons, even the departure of Trevor Lawrence would not have lowered expectations around the Clemson Tigers (9-3). Instead it was a very difficult opening couple of months of the season which meant the Tigers came up short not only when it came to the College Football PlayOff selection, but they also failed to reach the ACC Championship Game.

Much of the problems were down to an inconsistent Offensive unit which has not played up to the level of the Defensive side of the ball. However, there is still something to hold onto for the Tigers who finished the regular season with five straight wins and came place the school alongside some of the elite schools in College Football history by producing double digit wins for an eleventh straight season.

Only two other teams have maintained that kind of standard so there should be plenty of motivation on the Clemson sidelines despite the fact they have not nearly reached their goals for the season.

The same can be said for the Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) who would have been looking to reach the Big 12 Championship Game at the very least. Instead it has been an inconsistent season for the Cyclones, although Head Coach Matt Campbell has helped the team produce five consecutive winning seasons.

It is an achievement that should not be overlooked even if the Cyclones have fallen short of their main ambitions of the season and Matt Campbell will be looking forward to pitting wits with Dabo Swinney. The Iowa State Head Coach has been a real admirer of the work that Dabo Swinney has done as Head Coach of the Clemson Tigers and he would love to show what he has learned in previous visits to South Carolina.

Brock Purdy would love to sign off on the 2021 season with a big performance at Quarter Back and the feeling is that the Cyclones are going to have to lean on his arm. While the Offensive Line has opened up some solid holes up front, running the ball against the Tigers has proven to be an almost impossible task and it is the strength up front which has allowed Clemson to stall drives.

While I do think Brock Purdy can make some plays against this Secondary, being in third and long is a tough ask for any Quarter Back against this Defensive unit. The Cyclones have graded the road for the run, but the Offensive Line has not been as comfortable in pass protection and the Tigers have a fierce pass rush that will be looking to get the ball back into the hands of their Offensive unit with good field position.

Controlling the clock will also be important for the Tigers to make sure they are able to keep the Cyclones on the sidelines cooling off and I do think Clemson can do that. I expect the Tigers to win on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that means I am looking for them to establish the run and keep the team in third and manageable spots at the very least.

With the Iowa State Defensive Line struggling down the stretch, I think the Tigers Offense could have the balance on this side of the ball that makes it hard to stop them. The Offensive Line have been able to open holes to pound the ball, but they have also been protecting Quarter Back DJ Uiagalelei who has not really reached the expectation level around him.

He should be better next year, but I also think he can have a solid Bowl outing with the Offense likely to be in front of the chains. The Cyclones Secondary haven't given up big plays, but there is room for DJ Uiagalelei to find his Receivers and the Tigers look to have kept all the players together for this Bowl Game which should give them the edge.

Clemson are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen Bowl Games and I expect them to be well Coached and ready to compete. The Tigers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite and they are 16-5 against the spread in their last twenty-one when playing on a neutral field.

I would be surprised if the Cyclones roll over, but they are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven on a neutral field and 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.

With that in mind I will look for the Clemson Defensive unit to come up strong and help the team win and cover the spread and earn a tenth win in the 2021 season.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: Following in the path laid down by a father with a legendary name in College Football is never going to be an easy task, but Shane Beamer has impressed in his first season as Head Coach of the South Carolina Gamecocks (6-6). After winning just six games across the last two seasons, the Gamecocks would have seen 2021 as a rebuilding season under a new Head Coach, but instead they have exceeded most expectations.

They will be a pretty big underdog in this Bowl Game, the first South Carolina are playing since 2018, and motivation should not be a problem against a non-Conference rival.

The North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6) were expected to challenge for the ACC Championship this season, but they have not been consistent enough and will not match the eight wins secured last year. However, the Tar Heels can end 2021 with a third winning season in a row under Head Coach Mack Brown and they have key players happy to play in the Bowl Game to secure that record.

Sam Howell could easily have decided to do what many others have and skip the Bowl Game in favour of preparing for the NFL Draft with the feeling he will declare himself eligible for the pro game at the end of this season. The Tar Heels will need their Quarter Back to lead from the front in this one having ended up playing in a Bowl Game far below the level on which they would have liked to perform, but I do think North Carolina are the better team in this one.

While the headlines are likely to be about Howell's participation, it will be the North Carolina Offensive Line that could be the key to putting the Tar Heels in a position to win the game. They have been very strong at the line of scrimmage and been able to run the ball very well and now they are facing a South Carolina Defensive Line which has been unable to clamp down on the run.

The strong gains that have been made on the ground have perhaps been the main reason the South Carolina Secondary has the kind of numbers they do down the stretch. Teams have not needed to make a lot of throws against them, but I think the Tar Heels will be looking to run the ball to open up the passing game down the field.

It should be a game in which the Tar Heels are able to move the ball with some consistency, but you can't rule out the South Carolina Gamecocks considering this is a rivalry game. The fans will be in the Stadium to back the underdog and there are some bragging rights on the line, but South Carolina will be without ZaQuandre White at Running Back.

The decision from White may not be a bad one considering the issues the Gamecocks Offensive Line has had in trying to establish the run down the stretch. They are also going to be up against a solid North Carolina Defensive Line and the Tar Heels will feel that making the Gamecocks a little one-dimensional Offensively can give them a real edge.

The record has to be respected in 2021, but the inexperience at Quarter Back has just held South Carolina back this season. I think they will be better for it in 2022, but the Gamecocks have struggled for consistency passing the ball and I think that will be the main reason the team stalls when driving for points and ultimately leads to the Tar Heels pulling away for a good win.

Clamping down on the run like they have been will also give the Tar Heels pass rush a chance to make a big impact on the game and I would expect them to get after Luke Doty at Quarter Back whenever he is left in third and long. If the Gamecocks are forced to rely on the pass, I expect the Tar Heels to make those plays on the Defensive Line that gives them a serious edge in this Bowl Game, even if they may have hoped for a more important post-season spot.

North Carolina upset South Carolina in August 2019, but this time the Tar Heels are the big favourite.

They will be aware of the strong trends that South Carolina have in Bowl Games, but this is a new experience for the Head Coach and the Gamecocks are 3-11 against the spread in their last fourteen games as the underdog. I expect the Tar Heels to take control behind the run and that should see the Defensive unit make enough big plays to help North Carolina pull clear and then produce a late stop to secure another winning season.

Purdue Boilermakers vs Tennessee Volunteers Pick: There was very little expectation on the shoulders of either of these schools in 2021, but both the Purdue Boilermakers (8-4) and Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) have secured winning records and can head into this Bowl Game looking to end the season in the right way.

Having a strong season is a positive, but it does mean some of the players on both rosters have impressed enough to not want to risk any injury before the NFL Draft. The Purdue Boilermakers have been hit much harder by players deciding to opt out of the Bowl Game and that is the main reason they are such an underdog.

The Boilermakers showed some improvement running the ball down the stretch in the regular season, but the overall season suggests it will be difficult for them to establish the run with any consistency against this Tennessee Defensive Line. Any team that can be made a little one-dimensional is vulnerable, but the Purdue passing game has impressed, led by Aidan O'Connell at Quarter Back.

I do think Aidan O'Connell can have a very big game because there have been some vulnerabilities in the Tennessee Secondary, but he is going to be without some of the better Receivers on the roster. While the Quarter Back can have others step up, he is also without one of the key Offensive Linemen and I think O'Connell could find himself under more pressure when throwing the ball than he has been used to in the 2021 season.

The problem for the Boilermakers is that they are not only without key players on the Offensive side of the ball, but they are missing their two top Defensive players and that is not ideal against a Tennessee team that have impressed on this side of the ball under Head Coach Josh Heupel in his first season in Knoxville.

Hendon Hooker has played really well for the Volunteers at Quarter Back having arrived in a transfer from Virginia Tech, but it is the balance on the Offense which makes Tennessee so dangerous. They should be able to establish the run, even though Tiyon Evans has decided to leave the team, and that is largely down to a strong Offensive Line.

Over the course of the season, the Boilermakers Defensive Line has been vulnerable to the run and I think the Volunteers will be in a position where they can use play-action and short yardage situations for Hooker to try and hit Purdue down the field.

It should also be important in negating the strong Purdue pass rush and I think Tennessee are going to be more motivated by the fact this game is being played in Nashville and so they should have the majority of support inside the Stadium.

Purdue have been a very good underdog to back and have taken on the tag 'Spoilermakers' this season, but they are down multiple quality starters. The Volunteers should be able to take advantage and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite and I expect they will do just enough to edge past this mark in what should be a really fun game.

Michigan State Spartans vs Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: The struggles of the Clemson Tigers early in 2021 left the ACC feeling like a wide open Conference and it is the Pittsburgh Panthers (11-2) who won the Championship. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Pat Narduzzi who has led the Panthers to a winning record in five of the seven seasons he has been in charge in Pittsburgh, while the team have won at least seven games in six of those years.

They have surpassed expectations significantly and won a first ACC Championship having previously played in the Big East, and the Panthers will feel they can finish this season with twelve wins for the first time since finishing the 1976 season with a perfect 12-0 record and a National Championship.

Kenny Pickett has been a key part of the Panthers success and the Quarter Back is expected to be Drafted in the First Round of the NFL Draft coming up in April. However, that also means Pickett has decided he will miss the Bowl Game to prepare for the next stage of his career and the Panthers are going to hand the ball to Nick Patti at Quarter Back.

Unsurprisingly, Nick Patti is largely inexperienced playing behind Pickett, but he will be encouraged by the players around him and I think the Panthers will be able to move the ball against this tough Michigan State Spartans (10-2) team who have been a revelation in 2021. There were almost no expectations on the Spartans in the second season under Mel Tucker having finished 2-5 last season, but they pushed the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes all the way in the tough Big Ten East and actually hold a win over their rivals Michigan who will be playing in the College Football PlayOff.

Mel Tucker has been rewarded with a big contract extension and his team will be looking to finish on the right note, although they are also going to be missing some important players who are preparing for the NFL Draft. The Defensive unit has not been playing to the level we have become used to in East Lansing, but the Spartans have massively impressed.

However, as I have stated above, I do think Nick Patti will have some success against them with the Panthers likely to have some success trying to establish the run. As inexperienced as the Quarter Back is, Nick Patti has some playing time behind him and the Spartans have a Secondary which has been guilty of giving up some big plays towards the end of the regular season.

Michigan State will feel their pass rush can at least rattle Patti behind Center, but the Spartans are going to be without their top player, Kenneth Walker, and they are going to have some problems moving the ball themselves. It makes the spread appealing in favour of the underdog ACC Champions and I think the Spartans will not be able to establish the run as well as their opponents could do.

Payton Thorne has played well at Quarter Back and I do think he will have a good game throwing the ball into the vulnerable Pittsburgh Secondary, but the Spartans base so much of their success on running the ball efficiently. Otherwise they are going to have to deal with a Panthers pass rush which is capable of getting to the Quarter Back and I think that will be important to stall some drives and give the Panthers an opportunity to cover this mark.

The Spartans have played really well this season and the layers have not been able to get in front of them, but I think this spread has moved too far the other way. Pittsburgh are without their top Quarter Back, but I think Nick Patti could surprise and I will take the points that are on offer in this big Bowl Game.

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Wisconsin Badgers Pick: A poor start put the Wisconsin Badgers (8-4) behind the black ball as to how far they could go this season, but they rallied and looked set to play in the Big Ten Championship Game. A disappointing defeat to the Minnesota Golden Gophers prevented that from happening, but the Badgers are looking to bounce back in this Bowl Game.

They are the favourites in this one against the Arizona State Sun Devils (8-4), but this is a team who has to be respected having secured another winning season under Head Coach Herm Edwards. Arizona State won the Bowl Game they played in 2019, but they came up short in the Pac-12 South Division this season, although there are some positives to take on board.

Jayden Daniels did not really play up to the level expected in 2021, but the Quarter Back has already decided he is going to return to the Sun Devils and that should mean 2022 could be a really big year for the team. However, this is a really challenging test for Daniels and the Sun Devils Offensive unit against a powerful Wisconsin Defense and even more so without the top two Running Backs.

It has been a key for the Sun Devils to establish the run and then open up the passing lanes, but Arizona State will struggle to do that here. Rachaad White and DeaMonte Trayanum are both absent and the Badgers Defensive Line is strong enough to contain the back up Running Backs and that should put a lot of pressure on Jayden Daniels.

Failing to establish the run will mean Jayden Daniels will have to deal with the Wisconsin pass rush, while he has to show more consistency throwing the ball. Jayden Daniels has thrown 10 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions and he has to be wary about testing this Badgers Secondary which has been very good at turning the ball over.

Like the Sun Devils, Wisconsin will be looking to run the ball and set up the entire playbook for the Offensive unit and I do think they could have a little more success than their opponent too. The Badgers Offensive Line have been very strong at the line of scrimmage, while the Arizona State Secondary are missing key players to open things up for Graham Mertz at Quarter Back.

He has not had to do too much with the way the Badgers have been able to pound the ball, but Graham Mertz could have success in this one against a weakened Arizona State Secondary. I think that will be the key for the Badgers in pulling away and covering a pretty big mark and I do like Wisconsin in this Bowl Game.

Wisconsin are usually well prepared for the post-season and have gone 5-2 against the spread in their last seven Bowl Games.

Herm Edwards has the enthusiasm to get the best out of his Arizona State team though and the Sun Devils have been a strong underdog with Edwards at Head Coach. However, they are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine against non-Conference opponents and I think the Sun Devils are short-handed in this one which should give this strong Wisconsin team an opportunity to find the big plays to cover the mark.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: A run of four consecutive winning seasons was ended in 2020, but the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (10-3) were expecting to be a much better team in 2021. Even then, the run to the ACC Championship Game and securing ten wins before the Bowl Game would have surprised everyone associated with the team as they look to put an exclamation mark on one of their best ever College Football seasons.

The Demon Deacons have not won a Bowl Game since 2018 so there will be motivation in the camp, while they may have benefited from having a replacement to face in this game. Covid issues have allowed the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-7) to become the only team with a losing record taking part in the post-season, but they are on short preparation for the Bowl Game and Rutgers lost seven of their last nine regular season games.

Rutgers have now had six losing seasons in succession and will be taking part in a Bowl for the first time since 2014 and you do have to wonder how much they will have in the tank for this one. A reprieve to reach a Bowl Game should be encouraging the players, but the preparation will be far from ideal, although the Scarlet Knights may also be hoping that the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are a little distracted by the late change in opponent.

Playing a team with a losing record is perhaps not the most fitting way to end what has been a strong season, but I still think the Demon Deacons will have too much for their Big Ten opponent.

To put it simply, I am not sure Rutgers have the Offensive firepower to keep up with a Demon Deacons team that have been able to light up the scoreboard. There are holes in the Wake Forest Defensive unit, but the Scarlet Knights have not really shown they are a team who could expose those problems and I think it will lead to a pretty big win for the favourite.

Wake Forest have struggled to run the ball down the stretch and they may not find a lot of room up front, but Sam Hartman can end his season with a bang thanks to his strong passing displays. Even though the Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection down the stretch, the Scarlet Knights have not generated much of a pass rush and I think Sam Hartman will have plenty of time to hit his Receivers down the field and help the Demon Deacons score the kind of number of points they have been averaging all season.

As I have mentioned, there have been some issues for Wake Forest on the Defensive side of the ball and I do think they are going to have problems clamping down on the run. However, if they can move a couple of scores ahead of the Scarlet Knights, the feeling is that Rutgers do not have the kind of passing attack to really keep up with the Demon Deacons and that is where the ACC Atlantic Division Champions can pull away for a win and a cover of a large spread.

The Demon Deacons have covered the last four times as a favourite and Rutgers have ended this season with a 1-4 record against the spread when set as the underdog. As long as Wake Forest are not too disappointed by the quality of the replacement in this Bowl Game, I think they can pull clear for a big win.

Washington State Cougars vs Central Michigan Chippewas Pick: Two teams who were on the verge of missing out on an opportunity to compete in the Bowl season have come together to make sure the players have their deserved chance to play. The Washington State Cougars (7-5) and the Central Michigan Chippewas (8-4) have the records to have earned their right to play in the Sun Bowl and they are meeting midway between where they were supposed to originally take part.

It has been a really tough season for the Cougars who lost their Head Coach midway through the season after Nick Rolovich refused to take the Covid vaccination which was made mandatory at Washington State. Even then, the Cougars won three of their last four games to ensure a winning record and they are going to be the favourites in this Bowl Game.

The Central Michigan Chippewas missed out on a Bowl Game in the shortened 2020 season, but they have secured winning records in two of the three seasons under Head Coach Jim McElwain. He will be looking for a much better all around effort than the one seen when Central Michigan were blown out in a Bowl Game in 2019.

Momentum is with the Chippewas who have won four in a row since losing by a point against Northern Illinois and they will certainly feel they can do enough Offensively to at least give themselves a better showing than when beaten heavily by the San Diego State Aztecs a couple of seasons ago.

As well as Washington State have played down the stretch, the Defensive Line has struggled and I do think this is an opportunity for the Central Michigan Offensive Line to establish some dominance up front. Running the ball will see the team controlling the clock and being in front of the chains will give Central Michigan a chance to at least keep this one close.

The Cougars have produced a limited pass rush and Daniel Richardson should have enough time to keep the chains moving as long as the team are able to establish the run as expected.

At the same time it is almost impossible to believe the Washington State Cougars will not have the type of Offensive output to be in a position to win this Bowl Game. They have produced numbers in the Pac-12 which should give the Cougars a chance to move the ball on the Chippewas, although Washington State have continued to struggle to run the ball since changing system from the Mike Leach Air Raid to the one we see now.

Failing to run the ball effectively will bring the Chippewas pass rush into play and I think it could at least keep the underdog in this Bowl Game, even if they do ultimately come up short. Jayden de Laura has had a very good season for the Washington State Cougars and I think he will make some very good plays in this one to keep the chains moving, but I like the Central Michigan Offensive Line and I think they help keep this one close by establishing the run.

The Cougars have overachieved with their strong performance against the spread, but the Chippewas are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog. Central Michigan were well beaten by the LSU Tigers in the regular season, but the Cougars are not as strong as that SEC team and I think the Chippewas can be worth backing on the spread.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The College Football PlayOff has been dominated by the top Conferences since its inception, but all credit has to be given to the unbeaten Cincinnati Bearcats (13-0) who won the American Athletic Conference and deserved their place in the final four.

The win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, on the road no less, is the best one that the Bearcats have had this season, but schools up and down the country fell away and the Committee had not choice but to pick Cincinnati in the Number Four Seed. It is a big test of their credentials right out of the gate as they prepare to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) who overcame their defeat to the Texas A&M Aggies and ended up winning the SEC Championship.

It is that win over the Georgia Bulldogs which has carried the Crimson Tide into the PlayOff once again and they are the favourites to go on and win another National Championship under Nick Saban. With Bryce Young leading the team at Quarter Back, there is no doubt that the Bearcats are going to be facing the toughest Offensive unit they will have seen all season.

Head Coach Luke Fickell knows all about the challenges that are presented by the Crimson Tide from his time as Defensive Co-Ordinator of the Ohio State Buckeyes, but he was part of the team that upset the Crimson Tide in the final four of the PlayOff.

That remains the sole defeat for Alabama before the National Championship Game when they have been picked to take part in the PlayOff and I am not surprised that they are such a favourite in this Game considering the dominating win over the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game.

I do feel the Bearcats Defensive unit is all it is hyped up to be, but my feeling is that the Crimson Tide's own Defensive unit will build pressure by making sure Cincinnati have to be on the field more than they are used to. Field position is another factor that could swing this game in favour of the favourites and I am not sure how efficient Desmond Ridder is going to be at Quarter Back for the American Athletic Champions.

Desmond Ridder has not had a bad season by any stretch, but the Bearcats are a team that are propelled by establishing the run. However, they are facing up to an Alabama Defensive Line which has been very strong at clamping down on the run and the SEC competition will have hardened them up enough to deal with the Bearcats.

It is then going to mean Desmond Ridder has to make plays from third and long and I do think he could struggle- I do believe there are some holes in the Alabama Secondary with this entire unit not being as strong as the teams we have seen in recent seasons, but the Crimson Tide have rushed the passer with tremendous success and they could rattle Ridder into a mistake or two, which could prove to be costly.

The Bearcats could keep things close for a while considering the level of the Defense that Luke Fickell has put together in this part of Ohio, but the challenge for the Bearcats is dealing with the speed that comes with a SEC team. The Defensive Line should be able to clamp down on the run on this side of the ball too, especially when you consider the inconsistent performances from the Crimson Tide's rushing Offense, but Bryce Young could be they key to the outcome.

Bryce Young won't have things all his own way though and that is because the Bearcats have been able to generate a really effective pass rush. The Alabama Offensive Line has not only failed to run block as we have been used to, but they have allowed Young to be hit plenty of times and it may just slow down the passing game of the SEC Champions.

Over the years the Crimson Tide have largely dominated the first of the two PlayOff Games they have come to expect and I think they will do enough to get over this line, despite the strong Cincinnati team in front of them.

The Bearcats have to be respected for the way they have handled themselves as an underdog, but this is a huge challenge for them. I am not sure they will have enough Offensive output to stay with the Crimson Tide who can wear down Cincinnati's Defensive unit over the course of the game and eventually cover a big mark.

Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: The Jim Harbaugh era began with a lot of excitement at the Michigan Wolverines (12-1), but it has largely been a time of underachievement.

At least before 2021.

For the first time under Harbaugh, Michigan were able to top rivals Ohio State Buckeyes and winning the Big Ten East opened the door for the Wolverines to earn their way into the College Football PlayOff for the first time too. They still had to crush the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game and that was enough for the Wolverines to finish with the Number 2 Seed in the PlayOff, although they are a pretty big underdog in this Bowl Game.

They are facing the Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) who lost the SEC Championship Game and ultimately were not able to finish unbeaten and also force the Committee to pick someone other than the Alabama Crimson Tide in the final four. Covid issues have been a concern for the Bulldogs heading into this Bowl Game, but the Michigan Wolverines have some problems on their own which may be a factor in how this one shapes up.

Both of these teams are very much relying on a strong Defensive unit to set the table and I think both Michigan and Georgia are going to have success on that side of the ball. That is despite the fact that both teams have shown Offensive power over the course of the season and it will be the team that is able to establish the run which is likely to win the game.

The heavy loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide has dented some of the Georgia Defensive numbers, but I still think their Defensive Line is the strongest one on display in this game and can make more stops up front.

It should mean the Georgia Bulldogs are able to set up Stetson Bennett in slightly better third down and distance than Cade McNamara can expect for the Michigan Wolverines and it should mean the SEC team have the edge. Stetson Bennett is also going to be encouraged by some of the holes that have been seen in the Michigan Secondary over their last few games and the Quarter Back should have success.

The Georgia Offensive Line also looks like it can protect Stetson Bennett well enough to give him time to throw into the Secondary and it should mean the Bulldogs are in a position to cover.

I have a lot of time for the Michigan Wolverines in 2021 and I have been impressed by the performance of Quarter Back Cade McNamara, but the Wolverines may need more from him if they are going to be competitive. If they cannot establish the run against the very strong Georgia Defensive Line, Cade McNamara will be in an uncertain position and that is where mistakes could be made.

The turnover battle is going to be really important in this Bowl Game and I am just looking for Stetson Bennett to out-duel Cade McNamara.

Georgia have been used to being a favourite in this neutral site games and they have been very strong to back in those, while the Michigan Wolverines are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the underdog on a neutral field.

This should be close, but a late turnover may swing the game completely in the direction of the Georgia Bulldogs who can move into the National Championship Game and anticipate looking for revenge against likely opponents Alabama.

MY PICKS: Maryland Terrapins - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Panthers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Wisconsin Badgers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 17 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Central Michigan Chippewas + 7 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 13 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NFL Week 16 Picks 2021 (December 23-27)

It was a really miserable time for the NFL Picks in the middle of the regular season, but back to back strong weeks have just gotten the numbers moving in a positive direction.

Work has to be done to turn it around completely before we get into the NFL PlayOffs, but momentum is important and I do feel the luck has just turned in my favour.

The Week 16 Picks begin with Thursday Night Football and there are NFL games to be played on four of the next five days and that is not withstanding the fact that there could be more postponements as there were in Week 15. The PlayOffs are beginning to take shape and there could be a few more teams confirming their spot in the post-season having seen the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North.

Teams are chasing Seeding positions too and I think that will keep most focused right through to Week 18 of the regular season.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: With two of the three worst teams in the NFL in the Division and with two wins over your biggest rival, you would imagine in most cases that winning the Division should be firmly in hand. Unbelievably that is not the case for the Tennessee Titans (9-5) who have been slumping ever since Derrick Henry went down with an injury and who gave away another game when falling to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15.

At this point even a Wild Card position may be slipping out of the Titans grasp and that is with an extra place on offer in both Conferences. The pressure has to be building on Tennessee and they are not being helped with more injuries as Julio Jones is unlikely to suit up and AJ Brown may be activated, but unable to play as many snaps as he would like.

As the Titans are slipping with three losses in their last four games, they are up against the San Francisco 49ers (8-6) who are trending in the opposite direction as they look to secure a place in the post-season. A couple more wins should be enough for a top seven finish in the NFC, but the 49ers have won five of their last six games and will feel they can make some serious noise in the PlayOffs if they can keep this momentum going.

The sharp money has come down on the Tennessee Titans and that has seen the spread just shrink a little more and to the point where it is at a key number right now. I think that makes the road team appealing on the short week, even though the San Francisco 49ers are having to travel across the country for the Week 16 game.

They look to be matching up pretty well with the Titans on both sides of the ball and I think that will only help the 49ers produce an important win as long as Jimmy Garoppolo looks after the ball. In recent games the Quarter Back has played well and he has been able to avoid mistakes which can be a killer for this team, but Garoppolo has also been seriously backed by the performance of the Defensive unit.

Jimmy Garoppolo may have to use his arm more than he is usually used to against the Titans and that is because of how impressively Tennessee's Defensive Line have shut down the run in recent games. The Titans Defensive unit clearly feel they need to be at their very best to try and give the Offense a spark, but there are issues in the Secondary which can be exposed.

Both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel continue to find spaces past the line of scrimmage and I think the Quarter Back is going to have to target them here. Jimmy Garoppolo will have to be aware of the Titans pass rush if he is being left in third and long situations, but he may also be asked to throw the ball quickly in lieu of a running game, which may keep the 49ers in front of the chains and in a position to win this game.

However, I think it is the improvement of the performance level of the San Francisco Defense which is going to be key to the outcome of this one. As I have mentioned, Tennessee have struggled without Derrick Henry, although the Offensive Line is strong and have still opened up significant holes for D'Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard. Both had solid outings last week in the defeat in Pittsburgh, but it should be noted that the San Francisco Defensive Line have really picked up their level of play when looking to shut down the run and Tennessee have not played a team as strong as this since Henry was lost.

Inconsistencies up front have prevented the Titans from leaning on the run, but they have not been helped by the extremely short time Ryan Tannehill has been given in the pocket when he has been asked to throw. Losing Jones and Brown means he can't really look for a trustworthy target, but the Offensive Line have not been able to keep Tannehill upright and now the Titans will have to try and block an extremely fierce, productive pass rush generated by the 49ers.

It feels like this is where the game is going to be won for the 49ers as they can make enough plays to at least win out on the field position battle.

Ryan Tannehill has been struggling without his top two Receivers, and even a limited AJ Brown may not be able to do enough for his team to change that narrative.

The short week is not ideal for San Francisco, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road favourite. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has made the Titans a tough team to beat as the underdog, but they have also struggled on the short week and I think Tennessee could struggle to keep this one close.

Nothing comes easy for teams on the road, but I do like the 49ers here.

Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers Pick: They have become the first team to secure a spot in the NFL PlayOffs, but the Green Bay Packers (11-3) still have a goal in mind before the end of the regular season. Win out and the Packers will secure the top Seed in the NFC for a second season in a row and this year it is even more important with only one team in each Conference earning a Bye through to the Divisional Round of the post-season.

The Packers almost blew a big Fourth Quarter lead on the road in Week 15, but they are still one of the better teams at covering the spread, although they are being asked to cover a very big number in this Christmas Day game.

They are taking on the desperate Cleveland Browns (7-7) who saw a short-handed roster beaten on a walk off Field Goal in Week 15 to drop to 12th in the AFC standings. Like the Packers, the Browns have to be focusing on winning out and hoping that ten wins is good enough to secure a spot in the post-season, but there is little room for error after the defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders.

At least the Browns will have a number of players back from off the Covid list and that includes Baker Mayfield at Quarter Back who is set to be cleared to play on Friday. However, the lack of practice will be a concern and Cleveland have suffered some big injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, which does not bode well against the high-octane Offense run by the Green Bay Packers led by Aaron Rodgers.

Myles Garrett is set to play even if he does not practice and that is important for the Browns who have lost a couple of key players on the Defensive Line. The best way to try and beat a top Quarter Back is by putting them under pressure up front, but Cleveland may not be as effective at doing this against Aaron Rodgers as they would have been if all of their players were available.

If they are not able to get the pressure they like, the Browns could see the banged up Secondary exposed in a much more clinical manner than Derek Carr was able to do for the Raiders on Monday. Aaron Rodgers is a significantly better Quarter Back and he has had a big year despite the amount of Sacks he has had to take, but in this one he may have a touch more time and can find Receivers down the field, even if the improving Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been ruled out.

The Offensive Line is a little banged up, but I am not sure the Browns have the personnel to expose that and especially not with Myles Garrett fighting through the pain. Green Bay may not be able to run the ball as they would like, but Aaron Jones can be a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, while I expect the Packers have worked all week to find a way to scheme Davante Adams open.

I have to respect how well the Cleveland Defensive unit have played all season, but the injuries on the Defensive Line coupled with the absence of John Johnson at Safety is a major blow for them. The Packers have been very powerful at home and I think they are going to be able to move the ball successfully and can shift the pressure onto Cleveland to try and keep up with them.

As long as the game is close, I do think Cleveland have a chance to do that with Nick Chubb likely to have another big showing running the ball. He wore down the Raiders last week and it has long been considered a real possibility to have success running the ball against Green Bay, while the Browns Offensive Line looks like it will be even stronger with players returning from Covid issues.

Nick Chubb will be key to keeping the Browns in front of the chains and that will give Baker Mayfield a chance, but the Quarter Back is going to be without Jarvis Landry. Baker Mayfield has been well protected by his Offensive Line, but the rumour is that Cleveland will want to upgrade this position in a possible trade market in the off-season considering the amount of inconsistency we have come to expect from Mayfield.

He is not helped by the lack of skill players, but Baker Mayfield has also been guilty of some poor decision making and I do think he is going to be under pressure in this one. Another loss may end the Browns hopes of making the post-season and I think at some point their Quarter Back is going to have to throw the ball to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense.

I don't think this will be a blowout from the off, but I do think the Green Bay Packers will eventually pull clear as they force the Cleveland Browns to lean away from the run. That is where the Packers can take advantage of Baker Mayfield and eventually get the best of a mistake that helps them cover this big mark.

The Packers have covered in their last five as the home favourite and in general they have been very good at home since Matt LaFleur has come in as the Head Coach. Aaron Rodgers will want to remind the watching nation that he should be a leading candidate for the MVP award again and he will want to keep Green Bay on track for the top Seed in the NFC and I think the Packers can end up securing a double digit win on Christmas Day.

Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: PlayOff implications can be found in many of the games to be played in Week 16 of the NFL season and this the second of a double header with those implications on Christmas Day. The Indianapolis Colts (8-6) have won two in a row and they will likely need to win at least two of their final three games to finish in the top seven in the Conference, although the Tennessee Titans won on Thursday Night Football which means the AFC South is almost certainly out of reach.

The Colts will travel to face the slumping Arizona Cardinals (10-4) who have lost two in a row and three of their last five and now the Cardinals have lost control of the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. They are only a game behind the Green Bay Packers, but the slump in form has come at a bad time and the Arizona Cardinals are only just holding off the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West.

Falling behind the Rams would mean having to play on the road in the PlayOffs and the Cardinals are in danger.

The loss at the Detroit Lions in Week 15 was a really disappointing one for the Arizona Cardinals and they could be without some key players in this game. DeAndre Hopkins is a major loss for the Offensive unit, while James Connor is Questionable, even though the Running Back is convinced he will be able to play in this game.

Arizona will need him too, especially with Kyler Murray having a few issues at Quarter Back, but I do think the Cardinals Offensive Line can open up some holes for whoever is running the ball for the home team. That is important for the Cardinals to make sure they are not putting Murray in difficult third and long spots, while the play-calling has to be better on this side of the ball after a poor showing in Detroit.

I expect they can establish the run against the Indianapolis Defensive Line and that may give Kyler Murray a chance to make some plays through the air. It has to be noted that the Colts Secondary have played well, but Murray can target Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz and it should mean they are able to have some success moving the ball and turning drives into Touchdowns rather than settling for Field Goals.

Even then, it is hard to trust the Cardinals without Hopkins at Receiver as he clearly was the favourite target for Kyler Murray who has struggled without him. Some way, somehow, Murray has to find a way to make adjustments with DeAndre Hopkins not expected back until the NFC Championship Game at best and so this is still going to be a challenging game for the Quarter Back who was one of the leading candidates for the MVP award a few weeks ago.

While Murray's stock has fallen in the race for that award, Indianapolis will be heading to the desert with a player that may yet force his way into the leading spot for MVP. Jonathan Taylor has become the leading Running Back in the NFL ever since Derrick Henry went down with an injury and he has had some monster games in recent weeks to put the Colts in a position to reach the PlayOffs.

It was the Jonathan Taylor show in Week 15 as he ran all over the New England Patriots and over the course of this season it has been a real problem for Arizona when it comes to shutting down the run. In recent games they have had a bit more success on the Defensive Line, but the Colts have an Offensive Line that can bully others at the line of scrimmage and they will feel they can set Taylor up for another huge outing.

One concern for the road team is the injuries on the Offensive Line, but they did manage in Week 15 and the Colts will feel they can still win at the line of scrimmage. It is absolutely the key for the team if they are going to earn what will be seen as an upset, and will also mean keeping the pressure off of Carson Wentz at Quarter Back.

The lean on Jonathan Taylor means Indianapolis have not asked too much of Wentz behind Center, but being in front of the chains will give the Quarter Back every chance of attacking what has been a vulnerable Arizona Secondary. The pass rush would also be negated and I think Carson Wentz will be able to find some of the skill players around him with slightly more time when dropping back to throw the ball.

Jonathan Taylor may be most comfortable running with the ball behind the Offensive Line, but he is also a capable Receiver and I think the Colts can do enough on this side of the ball to win this game.

It will not be easy, but Arizona have struggled as a relatively short favourite this season where they have put a 1-3 record against the spread on the board. The Cardinals are 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven at home overall, but they are an awful 9-23 against the spread in their last thirty-two as the home favourite.

Arizona are going to try and bounce back from a loss and good teams in that spot have to be respected, but I am not sure how good this current Cardinals team is. Playing the better teams has been a problem with the Cardinals gong 2-7 against the spread in the last nine when facing a team with a winning record.

The Colts have covered the last four times they have been set as the road underdog and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven when playing a team with a winning record.

This should be highly competitive and the spread is not a big one, but I think the road underdog can establish the run and use that to find a way to earn the victory.

Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints Pick: No one will be surprised that there is a hugely pivotal game being played in Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season, but this non-Conference game looks to be even bigger than most played over the last few days.

The Miami Dolphins (7-7) and New Orleans Saints (7-7) share the same record, but the losing team on Monday Night Football is going to be under immense pressure to make the PlayOffs with just two weeks of the season remaining. The Dolphins are much further down the AFC standings with their 0.500 record than the New Orleans Saints are in the NFC, but the one difference is that a win will propel Miami into the top seven.

Plenty of twists and turns are to come over the next two weeks, but the Dolphins will be looking to keep their six game winning run alive by moving above 0.500 with another victory to turn around the disappointing 1-7 start to the season. The team is looking healthier with Jaylen Waddle returning to the team having missed out in Week 15, and I do think they are in a good spot to keep their winning run going.

Tua Tagovailoa may still have some doubters as to his chances of being a full time franchise Quarter Back, but the Dolphins are rolling with him through the end of the 2021 season and he has been playing very well during the run of victories. He will be challenged by a New Orleans Saints Defensive unit that have just held Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoreless, but injuries are impacting the Saints on both sides of the ball, but they are going to have Sean Payton on the sidelines.

An emotional effort was needed to beat the Buccaneers and I am not sure New Orleans will be able to do the same here- problems on the Defensive Line have given teams a chance to run the ball effectively on them and Duke Johnson offered Miami a spark on the ground in their win over the New York Jets. Over the course of the season the Dolphins Offensive Line have not really been very good at run blocking, but they have also not been helped by inconsistent performances from the Running Backs and the hope is that Johnson can offer something different to Myles Gaskin.

That Offensive Line has at least given Tua Tagovailoa a bit more time to make his throws down the field and I think the Quarter Back can have some success in this one. He has to be wary of the New Orleans Secondary which is capable of making some huge stops, but the Saints will be without some key starters in that unit and I do think the Miami Dolphins can produce points in this one.

However, the key to the outcome of the Monday Night Football game may be on the others side of the ball and that is because the New Orleans Saints are missing Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. The former is injured and the latter two are both on the Covid list which means Ian Book will be making his first start in the pro game in a season in which the rookie was expected to sit back and learn how to develop into a Quarter Back in the NFL.

It is a huge challenge for Ian Book considering the lack of support around him- Alvin Kamara is available and is likely to be a huge part of the Offensive game plan, but Miami will know that and the Saints are also likely to be without key pieces of the Offensive Line. Head Coach Brian Flores has shown he is a sharp Defensive mind and I have little doubt that Miami are going to try and bamboozle a rookie with blitzes coming from funky areas of the field and with Kamara being the main player to shut down on this side of the ball.

During the winning run, the Miami Dolphins have returned to some elite Defensive levels, albeit against limited competition. This Saints Offense is not expected to be much better having only produced nine points last week and now being down to a fourth string Quarter Back who is making his first start in the NFL.

With an Offensive Line banged up, the Dolphins should be able to shut down Alvin Kamara at Running Back and the much improved pass rush is likely to rattle Ian Book. That should offer Miami a chance to win the field battle during the game and I think they can score enough points to earn the cover, although the spread has moved from the Dolphins being a Field Goal underdog to a Field Goal favourite.

I would not be surprised if the Defensive unit is able to produce points for the Dolphins too and I think they can win this game on the road.

The Saints continue to impress as the underdog, but they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five at home. I do have to worry about the poor record Miami have as the road favourite, but they will rarely have headed on the road to play a team with as many issues as the Saints have.

In most circumstances I would expect an A + effort from the decimated home team, but they are off an emotional effort in beating the Buccaneers again and this looks a poor spot for New Orleans.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Los Angeles Chargers - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)

Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)

Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Season 2021: 61-58-1, - 4.86 Units (240 Units Staked, - 2.03% Yield)

College Football Picks- Bowl Games 2021 (December 22-28)

The Bowl season continues and this is going to be where I place the Picks from the games to come over the next week.

Guessing motivations and working out Covid problems is a test for us all, but I do like some of the Games we are due to see.

Army Black Knights vs Missouri Tigers Pick: Most teams will have been chasing Bowl Games that generate bigger headlines than the Armed Forces Bowl and that is especially the case for team playing in the Power 5 Conferences. With that in mind, it is perhaps not a major surprise that a couple of key skill players are going to be missing for the Missouri Tigers (6-6), but this is the first Bowl Game played by many on the Tigers roster.

It should mean there is plenty of motivation on their side of the field, but they are facing the Army Black Knights (8-4) who will be looking to bounce back and redeem themselves for losing to the Navy Midshipmen earlier this month. The Black Knights won at least ten games in 2017 and 2018, but they won't match the nine wins secured last season without winning this one and Army will be a team that will be focused at all times.

I would expect Army to bounce back and show they are much better than they were in the defeat to Navy, while they have enjoyed considerable success in the Armed Forces Bowl when asked to play in this game. The Black Knights will also feel they can recover from a poor day running the ball with the opponent they are facing in this one, although the Missouri Defensive Line did close the regular season looking stronger at the line of scrimmage.

Ultimately you can't ignore that the Tigers have struggled to defend the run all season and that should see the Black Knights open up some holes up front. It is very important to do so with Army having an inconsistent passing game that will only have an impact if they are able to run the ball and I do think it is possible for them to have a good time moving the ball.

However, it will be the Army Defensive unit which may be the strength of the team in this Bowl Game and especially as Missouri are going to be without Tyler Badie and Conor Bazelak. Tyler Badie is the strong Running Back that is heading to the NFL Draft and so has opted to miss this game, while Conor Bazelak is the starting Quarter Back, but the Tigers have decided to give Brady Cook a chance to build his experience leading the team.

If Badie was playing for the Tigers, you would think they could establish the run in this one, but it may be more difficult without a player who is hopefully going to be playing Pro Football next season. The Tigers should still have some success, but the Black Knights Defensive Line have largely been solid against the run and I think that will put some pressure on Brady Cook to make his plays through the air.

Brady Cook should be well protected by the Missouri Offensive Line, but the Army Defensive unit is one that has been a key in the eight wins secured this season and who held Navy to just 17 points in the loss last time out. I have to accept that a SEC school will have capable players of making big plays and so Missouri could have success, but Army look like they have the edge in the game and can grind the Tigers down for an important win.

Missouri are without their top two players on the Offensive side of the ball and that is the main reason they have been set as the underdog, but I think that is the right position for this Bowl Game. They are just 2-9 against the spread in their last eleven games facing a team with a winning record, while the Tigers have not covered in their last four games against non-Conference opponents.

The Black Knights have covered in their last four following a straight up loss, and they are also 4-1 against the spread in the last five Bowl Games played. There are a couple of historical trends that favour Army in this one too with Military teams coming off a straight up loss as a favourite covering six straight Bowl Games.

Those Military schools are also 6-2 against the spread in the last eight Armed Forces Bowls and I think the Army Black Knights will hammer Missouri on the ground and take advantage of inexperienced skill players that the Tigers will be using on the Offensive side of the ball.

North Texas Mean Green vs Miami (OH) Redhawks Pick: The Frisco Football Classic has been formed this season to give more schools a chance of playing a Bowl Game after the number of eligible teams that made it. After the Covid issues of the last twelve months, it is only right that the likes of North Texas Mean Green (6-6) and Miami (OH) Redhawks (6-6) an opportunity to finish the season with a winning record.

This is going to feel like a home game for the Mean Green who are looking to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2018. They have won five in a row to recover from a disappointing start to the season and that means North Texas will be entering the game with a lot of confidence and momentum behind them.

Winning a Bowl Game is a huge achievement for schools like North Texas and they are going to be very motivated to do that with the crowd likely to be firmly behind them. However, there has to be a lot of respect for the Miami Redhawks who have won five of their last eight games and suffered the three defeats by a combined four points.

Brett Gabbert has been in really good form for the Redhawks at Quarter Back and he is going to be very important for the favourites if they are going to win this game. Miami cannot really rely on being able to run the ball as they would have liked and that is going to put more pressure on Gabbert, but he has shown he can handle the workload on his arm.

The Quarter Back will have to be aware of the kind of pass rush that Mean Green have been able to generate and being in third and long may see some of the pressure get to him, but Brett Gabbert has a strong supporting cast who will feel they can win their battles on the outside. It won't be easy against the Mean Green Secondary which has also ramped up their levels on this winning run that has taken North Texas into a Bowl Game, while I also think the key for North Texas is to try and limit the amount of possessions that Gabbert and the Miami Redhawks have.

What is the best way to do that? Control the clock by pounding the rock and the Mean Green are more than capable of being able to establish the run in this one. The winning run has come about thanks to an impressive Offensive Line paving the way for the likes of DeAndre Torrey who has had his best season for the Mean Green with over 1200 yards on the ground.

As the regular season wore on, the Miami Redhawks gave up almost 200 yards per game on the ground in their last three games and that has to be highly encouraging for North Texas. The Offensive Line have also been very good at protecting the Quarter Back, but the key for the Mean Green is bullying the Redhawks Defensive Line and making sure they do not need to pass too many times and get the Miami pass rush into play.

Turnovers are likely to have a big impact on the game, but I like the way North Texas have been able to look after the ball of late. The Secondary may feel they can force an Interception or two and it will be important for the North Texas Running Backs to hold onto the ball with the Redhawks likely to be ripping at the hands to pull it away.

The Redhawks were strong at home this season, but struggled on the road and this is going to feel like a road game for them. Miami are just 2-5 against the spread in the last seven when being set as the favourite and I do think they are going to have a tough time dealing with the confident North Texas Mean Green.

North Texas have lost their last three Bowl Games in blowouts, which is a concern, but they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the underdog. As long as they can remain focused on running the ball, the Mean Green can cover here.

Florida Gators vs UCF Knights Pick: Things really fell apart for the Florida Gators (6-6) in the 2021 season and they barely finished eligible for a Bowl Game, while a decision was made to fire Head Coach Dan Mullen despite the fact he had led the team to a 29-9 record before this season. Some will be surprised by the decision, but the Gators have not really impressed over the last thirteen months and it is Billy Napier who will be tasked to rejuvenate the school.

The former Louisiana Head Coach will not be taking charge of this Bowl Game though and it will be up to the former Coaching staff to guide Florida. Against most opponents I would really be questioning the motivation of a group that will be wondering what the future holds for them when the new Head Coach comes in, but this is a State rivalry game and Florida will not want to lose bragging rights.

Florida will be facing the UCF Knights (8-4) who have already secured a winning record for a fifth season in a row, even if some of the lustre of the campaign would have been lost in seeing the Cincinnati Bearcats reach the College Football PlayOff. Most Knights fans believe their team should have been given the same opportunity when finishing unbeaten in the 2017 season.

The Knights certainly feel they are going into the Bowl Game with more momentum than the Florida Gators and Mikey Keene has played well in relief of Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back. In fact Gabriel is leaving the Knights to play for the UCLA Bruins next season and Keene will cement his place as the starter if he can lead UCF to their first ever win over the Gators.

It will be a challenge for the Knights on the Offensive side of the ball and it should be remembered that they are facing a SEC Defense in this Bowl Game. As well as Mikey Keene has played and as strong as Isaiah Bowser has been at Running Back, establishing Offensive consistency against a SEC school will be a real test for the American Athletic school.

Even then, I do think the Gators may not be as focused as they would have been if this was a regular season game and that should give the UCF Knights an opportunity to move the ball. The Knights Offensive Line have really played well and they have been able to establish the run in recent games, and you have to accept it is a possibility that the Gators may not be willing to dig deep at the line of scrimmage to control the Knights.

That could especially be the case with Zachary Carter opting out of this Bowl Game and preparing for the NFL Draft and that is a big loss on the Florida Defensive Line.

On the other side of the ball, Emory Jones will be leading the Gators at Quarter Back, but he is leaving the team at the end of this game and will be playing College Football elsewhere in 2022. Once again I would have to question whether Jones and the current Coaching staff are that focused on a Bowl Game that is being played before Christmas Day, although the Knights Secondary struggled down the stretch and you would expect Jones to have a decent outing.

Ultimately I am questioning the motivation of the Gators after an underwhelming 2021 season- Emory Jones may be able to make some plays, but it might not be a big surprise if another player is given some extra reps in live Football experience with a look ahead to the next year.

This feels like a big enough spread to back the UCF Knights, even if they have not been the best underdog to back. However, Florida have failed to cover in their last five as the favourite and all of the uncertainty around the team after Dan Mullen's firing could leave them as a vulnerable favourite, even with State bragging rights to consider.

Florida have also failed to cover in their last six games against non-Conference opponents and I will take the points on offer here.

Bowl State Cardinals vs Georgia State Panthers Pick: They are going to need a win in the Bowl Game to reach the seven win mark they secured last season, but even with that in mind it has been an underwhelming season for the Ball State Cardinals (6-6). Finishing with a losing record would be a real blow, but it also a position that has become familiar to fans of Ball State having only ended a six year run without a winning record in 2020.

Head Coach Mike Neu won't comfort himself with that fact and he will be looking to guide Ball State to back to back Bowl wins, which would be a major achievement. They have lost three of their last five games in the regular season and the MAC teams have been having a hard time in the Bowl season so far, which is perhaps the reason the Cardinals are the underdog in this one.

They are facing the Georgia State Panthers (7-5) who have had winning seasons in four of the last five years and who also won a Bowl Game in 2020. In the recent winning years under Head Coach Shawn Elliot, the Panthers have yet to surpass seven wins so there is plenty of motivation on the Panthers sideline.

Unlike Ball State, the Panthers have built momentum through the regular season and they have won six of their last seven games, including the last three in succession. Confidence can be very important at this time of the season and the Panthers should be feeling really good about themselves.

The two teams will be looking to approach this game in different ways- Georgia State like to run the ball, while the Ball State Cardinals are much more comfortable throwing the ball.

The line of scrimmage could end up being a very important part of the game and that is where the Panthers Offensive Line can have the edge over the Ball State Defensive Line. The Panthers have been able to establish the run very effectively and at the end of the regular season it looked the Cardinals had been worn down up front.

They were giving up over 5 yards per carry down the stretch and I think the Panthers are going to take advantage by hammering the ball right down the Ball State throat. Keeping the team in third and short should make it easier for the Panthers to move the ball with consistency and there are spaces in the Ball State Secondary which should mean Darren Grainger should be able to use play-action to get the ball moving down the field.

Running the ball has been the main feature of the Georgia State Offensive Line, but they are also very proud of the level being produced by the Defensive Line when it comes to shutting down the run. Forcing the Cardinals into becoming one-dimensional will give Georgia State a huge advantage in this game, especially as it will allow the Panthers to unleash a strong pass rush that has been very efficient at making plays behind the line of scrimmage.

Drew Plitt did not have the best ending to the season, but I do think he will have some success with the issues that the Panthers Secondary have had in defending the pass. Being able to avoid the pass rush from third and long on a consistent basis is difficult though and I think the Georgia State Panthers are the right team in this Bowl Game.

Ball State have played well as the underdog, but MAC teams have been struggling with the improved level of competition in December. They are also facing a very confident Georgia State team that have plenty of momentum behind them and who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the favourite.

It is a big spread, but I think running the ball will give the Panthers the edge and I expect the pass rush to make enough plays to swing this Bowl Game in their favour as they reach eight wins for the first time in school history.

Western Michigan Broncos vs Nevada Wolf Pack Pick: If this was a regular season game, you would have likely had the Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4) as a relatively big favourite to beat the Western Michigan Broncos (7-5). It would have been a competitive game, but I think the Wolf Pack would have had too much, but things have changed around this Bowl Game and I think the Broncos can take advantage of the situation as they look to win their first post-season game since 2015.

There are some concerns about the Broncos- the teams playing in Bowl Games out of the MAC have been terrible this season and they vastly underachieved in the Conference. Going into the season as favourites to reach the Championship Game in the MAC West, the Western Michigan Broncos only finished 4-4 in Conference play and bottom of the Division.

However, the team did win two of their last three games to become Bowl eligible and Western Michigan also upset the Pittsburgh Panthers who ended up winning the ACC Championship.

The Broncos will be facing a Nevada Wolf Pack team who have won at least seven games in each of the last four seasons and they have closed the season with wins in two of their last three Bowl Games. However, the Wolf Pack are going to be missing a huge amount of the players who have propelled them to eight wins this season, although they fell a little short of the leading teams in the Mountain West Conference.

Carson Strong is the biggest absentee on the team and the Quarter Back has declared that he will enter the NFL Draft and feels his best preparation for that is to avoid taking any unnecessary punishment in this Bowl Game. It will be up to Nate Cox to take over at Quarter Back, but he will be missing a number of skill players on the Offensive unit and you do have to wonder if that will be an issue with the chemistry of the team facing this Broncos Defensive unit.

It has to be considered that the Western Michigan Defense would be one that seemingly matches up well with the Wolf Pack even if all of the players were available for this game for the latter. They have a Defensive Line that has struggled to shut down the run, but a Secondary that has been able to protect against the pass.

Nevada are a team that has preferred to throw the ball though having had issues opening up holes up front and with Carson Strong they have been able to overcome third and long spots. It may be more difficult for Nate Cox and especially as he will be throwing behind an Offensive Line which has not protected the Quarter Back as well as they would have liked.

I do think the Broncos can get after Cox, while they have a pretty good Offensive unit of their own which should be able to have success moving the ball. The line of scrimmage is an area where they have excelled on this side of the ball and I think Western Michigan will be able to establish the run against the Wolf Pack Defensive Line and that should open things up for Kaleb Eleby who has thrown 21 Touchdown passes with just 5 Interceptions this seasosn.

The Wolf Pack Secondary has played pretty well down the stretch, but that may also be down to the fact that the Defensive Line have not been able to stop the run. I think it is a real possibility for Western Michigan to control the clock and then make some big plays with their pass rush to pull clear of Nevada.

Nevada are without Head Coach Jay Norvell who has accepted a job at Colorado State, but their new Head Coach will not be on the sideline for this one. Those players who will be returning next season may be a little unsure about the future and I think it is another distraction for a team without so many leading players.

It can't be ignored how well Nevada have played as an underdog and this is a big spread, but the Broncos have picked up their level when playing better teams. The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games against a team with a winning record and I think they can find the plays to cover the spread.

Auburn Tigers vs Houston Cougars Pick: They finished with a perfect record in the American Athletic Conference regular season, but the Houston Cougars (11-2) bookended their campaign with defeats. The loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats means they were not able to play spoiler for a team that will be playing in the College Football PlayOff, but they have finally earned their first winning season under Head Coach Dana Holgorsen in his third year in Houston and the Cougars have already secured their most wins in a single season since 2015.

This is a difficult Bowl Game for the Houston Cougars as they paired up to compete with the Auburn Tigers (6-6) from the SEC, although the Tigers had a tough end to the season with four straight losses.

There has to be some motivation in the Auburn locker room as they are bidding to avoid a first losing record since the 2012 season, but the Tigers have lost their last two Bowl Games and there is little doubt that they wanted to be competing at a much more prestigious post-season game.

Without that you cannot be surprised that some players have decided they are going to skip this Bowl Game as they begin to prepare for life in the NFL with Draft preparation the focus. Bo Nix has also announced that he will be leaving Auburn in the transfer portal and that means they are going to have to give the ball to TJ Finley who has not been able to oust Nix as starter in the regular season after coming in from the LSU Tigers.

The Tigers do play at a higher level than the Cougars and I think that makes it tougher to put the numbers together and try and piece together how the game will go. The Houston Defensive unit have played really well at the American Athletic level, but they are going to have to take another step up in level.

However, I do think the Cougars can have some success when you think of the troubles Auburn have had with their Offensive Line. That unit will also be down a player preparing to move into the pro Ranks with Brodarius Hamm out at Right Tackle and that could be a problem against the Houston pass rush.

TJ Finley may have to do the majority of the work behind Center with the running game not really working as Auburn would like and I do think Houston can make enough plays on the line of scrimmage to at least try and keep Auburn from scoring Touchdown after Touchdown.

Forcing Punts and Field Goal efforts would be a tremendous win for the Houston Cougars, but their own Offensive unit will be under pressure to show they can compete with a tough SEC Defensive unit. Clayton Tune has had a good, solid season at Quarter Back for the Cougars, but it may be up to him to keep the Houston chains moving with little support expected from the run game that had struggled down the stretch.

Like the Houston Defensive Line, the Auburn Defensive Line has not only clamped down on the run, but they have also been able to dial up a fierce pass rush. The difference between the units is the holes that have been evident in the Secondary and I do think Clayton Tune will find a way to out-duel TJ Finley, while the motivation has to be questioned when it comes to Auburn despite the fact they are looking to avoid a first losing season in ten years.

Houston are going to be massively motivated to show they can step up their level again next season and they are looking for a first Bowl win since 2017. The last two have been embarrassing performances from the Cougars, but they look strong and the absences on the Tigers roster has to give the underdog and edge.

The Cougars are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the underdog on a neutral field, while Auburn are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Bowl Games. I do think the Tigers are better than their end of season suggested, but those losses piled up and I am not sure the team is going to be as ready to compete as Houston who will want to underline the successful 2021 season.

Louisville Cardinals vs Air Force Falcons Pick: This is a very important Bowl Game for the Louisville Cardinals (6-6) who are looking to avoid a third losing season in four on Tuesday. Anyone who thinks they just have to turn up to win will be in for a surprise though as they face the Air Force Falcons (9-3) who will be chasing a second season in three in which they have won double digit games.

The layers are finding it hard to separate these teams, but much is going to depend on the line of scrimmage and which of the teams is best placed to control that. Ultimately it is the key to the game on both sides of the ball and my feeling is that the Air Force Falcons have a genuine edge over the Cardinals.

Momentum may be with the Falcons too as they finished the regular season with three wins in a row, while the Cardinals have lost three of their last four. Most worrying for Louisville fans attending this Bowl Game is watching their team and seeing how they deal with the triple-option after allowing in-State rivals Kentucky to pile up the yards on the ground in the final regular season game.

It has been a struggle for the Louisville Defensive Line to clamp down on the run all season, but there was a real sign of wear and tear down the stretch in the regular season, culminating in giving up over 360 rushing yards to the Kentucky Wildcats. The yards being allowed on the ground have come at a healthy clip too and I really do feel the Falcons are going to be able to hammer Louisville hard on the ground.

Air Force run a system in which they will not throw the ball very much, but I don't think that will matter to the Falcons who can pound the rock all day and give themselves every chance of winning this Bowl Game.

Running the ball has been a real feature of the way Louisville have been playing down the stretch and they have produced some big numbers on the ground thanks to the quality of dual-threat Quarter Back Malik Cunningham behind Center. Barring an injury, I have to expect Cunningham to pick up the 32 yards needed to produce 1000 rushing yards for the season, but even with a talented Quarter Back it will be tough to run with consistency against the Falcons Defensive Line.

The Cardinals have some strong numbers that have to be respected and I think they will have some success on the ground, but Malik Cunningham may need to open the lanes by making some big throws early in this one. It would be best if they can get in front of the chains, if only to make sure they are not dealing with the effective pass rush that the Falcons have been generating down the stretch, but there should be a touch more balance about their play-calling than what we will see from the Falcons.

Extra possessions could be important to the winner of this Bowl Game and I think it will be a competitive game, but one where I like the production of the Air Force Falcons at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Air Force have been a very good team to back at the window when it comes to Bowl Games, playing non-Conference opponents and when they have been set as the underdog.

Louisville have also been very good when it comes to the spread in Bowl Games, but they are 11-27-1 against the spread in their last thirty-nine games against a team with a winning record. They are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven neutral field games and Louisville are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four games against Mountain West schools.

This is not a huge amount of points at all, but I think the underdog can be backed with the Falcons Offensive Line likely to pave the way for a huge game on the ground.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: There is no love lost between Mike Leach and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6), but the current Coaching staff will only be focusing on trying to help Texas Tech finish with a winning record. They have had five seasons in succession without doing that, while the obvious added motivation of playing their former Head Coach may not be lost on the fans.

Unfortunately it has been a long time since Mike Leach left Lubbock and that means the players may not be as ready to get one over on the one time Head Coach of the Red Raiders. And that is quite different for Leach himself who will be bringing in his Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5) knowing he has secured a winning record in his second season with the team.

That alone will not be enough for the Head Coach and I do think he is going to be looking for his 'Air Raid' Offense to really put the Red Raiders in a tough position throughout this game. I have little doubt that Mike Leach would like to remind the Texas Tech fans of the successes he had when Head Coach at the school and there has been enough to like about his Bulldogs team to be encouraged.

Mississippi State ended the season with four wins in their last six games, which is in complete contrast to the Texas Tech Red Raiders who have lost four of their last five. The Red Raiders are also going to be playing under an interim Head Coach, one that has decided he will be moving on as soon as this Bowl Game has been played, and there is every feeling of this being a blow out.

As the season wound down, the Bulldogs did begin to run the ball with some efficiency, but no one will be surprised to read that the 'Air Raid' has been the most productive way for the Bulldogs to move the ball. That means allowing Will Rogers to step back and rip the ball around the field and the Quarter Back has really played well for the Bulldogs and I think he can have one more big game before the end of 2021.

There are some significant holes in the Texas Tech Secondary, but worse is that the Red Raiders have been able to generate little pass rush pressure down the stretch. Giving Will Rogers time and a Head Coach with a score to settle sounds like a bad combination for the Red Raiders and I am impressed that the Quarter Back has been one that has avoided turning the ball over too.

The expectation is that the Bulldogs will have a lot of success throwing the ball and that will open up some running lanes to keep some control of this game. It will also put pressure on Texas Tech to try and keep up in what may be a shoot out, but the Red Raiders are also going to have to rely on a Quarter Back to make the plays.

Texas Tech have not been able to establish the run as they would have liked in their last few regular season games, while the Bulldogs Defensive Line is stout and will not give up a lot of big plays on the ground. Donovan Smith is the third Quarter Back to play for the Red Raiders and I think it is a big ask for him to make plays consistently against a SEC Secondary.

Donovan Smith will be facing more pass rush pressure in and around his face and I think that will be a reason some drives will stall. I do think Smith can have a solid outing, but it may not be close to what Will Rogers does with the ball and I think the Mississippi State Bulldogs are the right team to back in this Bowl Game.

The Bulldogs ended the season on a 5-1 run against the spread and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five following a straight up loss.

It has been tough sledding for the Red Raiders who are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten Bowl Games and 7-15 against the spread in their last twenty-two neutral field games. Add in the poor 1-5 record against the spread in their last six against SEC opponents and I think the players may not be able to change the narrative with so much uncertainty about what the future will hold in Lubbock.

NC State Wolfpack vs UCLA Bruins Pick: There are some good looking Bowl Games yet to be played around the New Year period, but there may not be many better than the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. The UCLA Bruins (8-4) will feel there will be plenty of home support for them and they may need that against the very strong NC State Wolfpack (9-3) who are looking to win at least ten games for just the second time in school history.

Even the defeats have come in highly competitive affairs and the Wolfpack are bolstered by the feelings of players that they are going to return in 2022. This will make the NC State team experienced and arguably the favourites in the ACC Conference along with Divisional rivals Clemson Tigers.

They were plenty experienced in this season too and the Wolfpack have won four of their last five games in the regular season to build the confidence ahead of the extra practices for the Bowl Game. However, they are facing a Bruins team who have won three in a row and who have had their first winning record under Head Coach Chip Kelly.

Some rumours had been around that the Head Coach may be thinking about returning to Oregon, but Chip Kelly will remain with the Bruins after a strong 2021 and Dillon Gabriel is going to be the Quarter Back going forward. He will be transferring to UCLA for the 2022 season, but Chip Kelly has been praising Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the strong performances at Quarter Back to end this season.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson could return for the Bruins even with Gabriel coming in, and he could show that he is still the man at the Quarter Back position with a big Bowl performance against a very good opponent. This season he has thrown 21 Touchdown passes with 6 Interceptions, but the performances down the stretch have been really encouraging with the Bruins looking more and more like a Chip Kelly team.

It all starts with the run and Thompson-Robinson is capable of moving the ball with his legs as well as his arm- the Bruins Offensive Line and all the misdirections that were a part of Chip Kelly's identity with the Oregon Ducks has seen UCLA racking up big yards on the ground in recent games and I think that will continue against the Wolfpack Defensive Line which has struggled down the stretch.

Throwing against the Wolfpack Secondary has been a real issue for teams, but establishing the run should give the Bruins a chance to do that and especially if their Quarter Back is careful with the ball.

Any issues running the ball brings the fierce Wolfpack pass rush into play and that would be a major problem for the Bruins. However, I do think they are going to be able to have success on the ground and that will mean there is some pressure on the NC State Wolfpack to respond.

I expect they will be able to do that, although there may be some issues in running the ball. Devin Leary has had a very big year for the NC State Wolfpack at Quarter Back, but he would love for the team to be able to establish the run considering what we have seen from the Bruins Defensive unit down the stretch.

The Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run, although the Bruins will be without Otito Ogbonnia on this unit after he declared he will be heading to the NFL Draft. That will have an impact on the Bruins when losing such a talent, but they will feel they can force the Wolfpack to be a little one-dimensional, although shutting out Devin Leary when it comes to throwing the ball will be a huge challenge.

The loss of Ogbonnia will impact the pass rush, but the Bruins have been able to get to the Quarter Back and the Wolfpack Offensive Line has sometimes struggled in pass protection. If UCLA can win at the line of scrimmage, they will have to believe they can get some pressure around Leary and that can see them force some errant throws into a Secondary that played well in their last three regular season games.

It should be a close and competitive game, but I think the underdog can use the likely home support to help them through this Holiday Bowl.

UCLA have not won a Bowl Game since 2014, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog. The Wolfpack have to be respected with strong records as a favourite and in recent Bowl Games, but I think the UCLA Bruins may be able to find the balance on the Offensive side of the ball which gives them a narrow edge.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: Things may have been a lot different for the Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) in 2021 if they had not lost their best playmaker on the Offensive side of the ball early in the season. Even without Mohamed Ibrahim, the Golden Gophers have put together three winning years in four under Head Coach PJ Fleck and they will be looking for a third Bowl win in a row under Fleck too.

They are the favourites when facing the West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6) who are going for a second winning season in a row under Neal Brown. The Head Coach has never been beaten in a Bowl Game which will add to the motivation for the Mountaineers, but they have been an inconsistent team in 2021 having finished with a 6-4 record in 2020 and it would be some turnaround having won two in a row to close out the regular season.

The Golden Gophers have also won two in a row, but they are not a dominant Offensive team and I do think this Bowl Game has every chance of being one decided at the very end by whichever team holds the ball last.

Both teams will be approaching this one in a similar way- establishing the run may open up holes in the improved Secondaries of both teams with the pass not an easy way to move the chains against either unit. It is not easy to predict which team will be able to get going on the ground though and that is where this game is going to be won or lost.

Minnesota have not been as efficient running the ball down the stretch as they may have been with Ibrahim in the line up, but they are not facing a very strong West Virginia Defensive Line and so there may be more room than usual. On the other side, the Mountaineers have been able to establish the run, but it will be a test for the Offensive Line when facing a Golden Gophers team that have been able to clamp down on the run.

Tanner Morgan will have time at Quarter Back for the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but the Mountaineers Secondary have played well and they are a ball-hawking unit that will love to give their own team extra possessions. Jarret Doege has been a little inconsistent at Quarter Back for the Mountaineers, but he also should have time to make his throws and the key for this player is to try and erase the mistakes which have been as much as part of his season as the Touchdown passes.

My feeling is that Jarret Doege may be the one that makes the costly mistake that makes the difference, but I would be surprised if the Mountaineers are blown out.

The majority of the trends favour Minnesota, but they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the favourite.

As poor as the Mountaineers record is in Bowl Games, they are the underdog this time and Neal Brown has shown he can make use of the extra practices here and in his previous role as Head Coach of Troy. I think that will be key for the underdog here and taking the points on offer in this Bowl Game seems the play.

MY PICKS: Army Black Knights - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

North Texas Mean Green + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

UCF Knights + 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Georgia State Panthers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Western Michigan Broncos - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Houston Cougars + 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Air Force Falcons + 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Mississippi State Bulldogs - 10 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

UCLA Bruins + 2 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)

West Virginia Mountaineers + 5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)