With just six Premier League games to be played this weekend I think there will be a number of people in a similar boat, although every point matters at this stage of the season. I would even suggest playing an additional transfer even for the cost of 4 points if you need to, but pick a player that is guaranteed to start as that should mean at least 2 of those points are returned.
I very rarely choose a goalkeeper or defender to lose points on because of their limited chances of a return, but a midfielder and striker can make up for those 'hits' taken very quickly.
The players I identified last week in my Fantasy portion of the thread turned out to be very good selections so I am hoping some readers would have benefited. The outstanding contributions in the Double GameWeek came from the top three Defenders I had selected, while all three higher priced strikers all scored too.
The Defenders were the best on the GW though with Cesar Azpilicueta scoring and keeping a clean sheet, Aymeric Laporte being involved in both clean sheets and adding an assist and Luke Shaw adding an assist even though the late Watford goal at Old Trafford was a blow in taking away the clean sheet.
With a smaller amount of Premier League games to be played this weekend I am going to have fewer players selected, but you can read my thoughts on the Weekend games from the Premier League and FA Cup and the Fantasy thoughts below.
Southampton v Liverpool Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend comes on Friday night from St Mary's as both Southampton and Liverpool chase the points they need to fulfil different ambitions.
The home team will be looking for one more win to really begin to feel they have enough points to avoid relegation. The 0-1 win at Brighton last weekend was a big result for Southampton who have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games and their last 2 at St Mary's against Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur.
While the win over Spurs was a big result, Southampton know they could have been in a big hole by half time as they were being dominated by the top four club. That is a concern when they get ready to take on a Liverpool team who have won 4 in a row in all competitions and seem to have a little bit of fortune on their side as late goals have gone their way.
Liverpool have a solid away record in the Premier League and they are a team who have looked secure defensively, but I expect that to be tested by Southampton who will feel they have nothing to lose here. Any points earned against the top six has to be considered a bonus for Southampton in their fight to avoid the drop, but they have been better at home under Ralph Hasenhuttl and this is a team that can cause problems for the bigger clubs at St Mary's.
Both North London clubs have been beaten here since Hasenhuttl took over as manager of Southampton, while The Saints have also scored against Manchester United in a draw and Manchester City in a defeat at home. I do think they can do the same against a Liverpool team who have not had a clean sheet in 4 games and that includes conceding against Burnley and Fulham who are both below Southampton in the Premier League table.
The Southampton defensive issues makes it very difficult to imagine Liverpool not scoring here themselves so the selection is picking both teams to score at odds against.
Fantasy Star: Sadio Mane- you have to stick with the former Southampton player who has been in hot form.
Alternative: Roberto Firmino- I think Southampton could cause problems for Liverpool, but the latter are playing with a feeling of destiny behind them and someone popping up with a winner would not be a surprise.
Bournemouth v Burnley Pick: This is an interesting fixture with Bournemouth understandably the favourite, but they have a poor recent record against Burnley and that has to be factored into any selection that is made.
I did consider backing Bournemouth on the Asian Handicap which would return half the stakes in the case of a draw, but their recent record has been underwhelming. It would have looked a lot better if they had converted a late penalty to beat Wolves and then held on through injury time in their draw with Newcastle United, but those setbacks and overall recent form has to be a concern.
That is not to say that Burnley have been in great form having had 4 straight League losses prior to the international break, but the 2-0 win over Wolves last weekend at Turf Moor has to be a huge confidence boost. Burnley will make the long trip down to the south coast with very little to lose as they look to move even clearer of the bottom three, while their 3 straight wins over Bournemouth have to give them further belief.
What has been clear in recent games between these clubs is that they match up well and usually produce plenty of goals when they face one another. The last 5 have all ended with at least three goals shared out and I do think Bournemouth and Burnley will be chasing goals to protect what have been vulnerable defences.
Bournemouth have conceded in 3 home games in a row, while Burnley have scored at least once in 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games. The home team have only failed to score in 1 of their last 7 here in all competitions, and Burnley have not had a clean sheet in their last 5 away games.
With recent history and the recent performances of both teams I would not be surprised to see a 2-1 scoreline either way and I am going to recommend looking at three or more goals to be shared out on the day.
Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- is back leading the line for Bournemouth who should have chances against a Burnley defence that has not looked as strong as previous years.
Alternative: Dwight McNeil- I identified him last week and he came up with an assist and a goal. Key player for Burnley in their fight against relegation.
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City Pick: Relegation has looked inevitable for a number of weeks now at Huddersfield Town, but big decisions look like they will need to be made. There have been reports of the players not being happy under new manager Jan Siewert so the Huddersfield Town board have to decide whether they want to bring someone else in to take the club forward on their return to the Championship.
It is going to be a big season for Huddersfield Town who won't want to spend too long out of the top flight as the return becomes that much more difficult. The Championship is loaded with some quality teams though and earning an immediate return to the top flight is going to be a real challenge for The Terriers.
The fans will begin to worry about that when they complete their Premier League fixture list and Huddersfield Town can play without some pressure now relegation is confirmed. That could free the players up, but they are short of the quality of those in the top flight and I think Leicester City will have too much for them.
Brendan Rodgers has made an immediate impact with the Leicester City players who had been struggling under Claude Puel and the attacking intent of the manager is something the players will enjoy. There is going to be work to mould the squad like Rodgers wants in the summer, but for now they are chasing the top seven finish which may see them playing in the Europa League next season.
3 wins in a row under Rodgers means Leicester City are playing with belief and they have been scoring plenty of goals in that run. They should have enough to see off Huddersfield Town here who have not been able to keep clean sheets and struggling to avoid defeats at the John Smith's Stadium and I will back the visitors to win a game featuring two or more goals.
Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- amongst the goals since Claude Puel was sacked and could keep his run going.
Alternative: James Maddison- I am expecting Leicester City to be the stronger team and the English midfielder does play in advanced positions on the pitch.
Newcastle United v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace look to have enough to steer clear of the bottom three in the Premier League, but both Rafael Benitez and Roy Hodgson will be reminding their players that a win on Saturday will ease any remaining doubts about their ability to survive in the top flight.
There is almost nothing to lose for either team in this fixture with a 7 and 8 point lead over Cardiff City in the bottom three and I think that could see an attacking game develop.
Newcastle United have found a groove at home where they have scored at least twice in 5 successive League games and won each of those. That might be an issue for a Crystal Palace team who have not been defending as well as they would have liked and have conceded at least twice in losing 3 of 4 overall.
That includes losing 2-1 at Watford and 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, but the latter is the first away game since late November in which Crystal Palace have failed to score. I do think they can create problems for Newcastle United with the pace and quality they have in the final third and I would not be surprised at all if we see both teams find the net in this one.
While neither will want to lose, I do think the three points will encourage the players to take chances too and I think that is going to produce a decent game of football. With both teams having some defensive problems, I can see this fixture going against the recent trend when these two teams face one another and I will recommend looking for at least three goals to be shared out at odds against.
Fantasy Star: Solomon Rondon- has scored in three of the last four games at St James' Park.
Alternative: Wilfried Zaha- the main threat for Crystal Palace who will be looking to counter attack in this fixture.
Everton v Arsenal Pick: There are some questions for both Everton and Arsenal to answer when they face each other in front of the television cameras on Sunday afternoon.
Marco Silva has been backed by the Everton board and his players seem to be playing hard for him having secured solid wins over Chelsea and West Ham United either side of the international break. The win over Chelsea ended a poor run at home, but Everton also held Liverpool in the Merseyside derby and I think they can cause problems for Arsenal.
One of the main reasons for that is Arsenal have not been as comfortable away from the Emirates Stadium and it is going to be the poorer away form that prevents them making the top four. The Gunners have a chance to make a statement by winning at Goodison Park and that will be a confidence boost for a team who are playing five of their remaining seven League games away from home.
Arsenal do have a decent record against Everton which is another reason they could be as short as they are to win this game. There is no doubt they are a very short price, but Arsenal looked very strong in their 1-1 draw against Tottenham Hotspur at the start of March and I think they have the goals to win this game if at their best.
Goals have been a real feature of Everton versus Arsenal fixtures in recent years and I think this one is going to follow suit. The home team will look to get forward and Arsenal look to be rounding into strong form and I think they can combine to produce at least three goals on Sunday afternoon.
Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- leading the line for Arsenal more often than not and seemingly involved in plenty of their goals.
Alternative: Gylfi Sigurdsson- I seem to pick him in every Everton game as their main threat and positive returns in three of the last five fixtures suggests that remains the case. Key player if the home team are going to upset Arsenal.
Chelsea v West Ham United Pick: It can be something of an irritation for those clubs playing in the Europa League that they are asked to play on a Monday night ahead of a Thursday European commitment, but Chelsea have to deal with the schedule as it comes.
At this moment they have not prioritised a top four finish over the Europa League or vice versa as they chase a spot in the Champions League and so I do think a strong home team is selected.
They could be facing West Ham United at the right time as the team have perhaps just taken their foot off the pedal with the season coming to a conclusion. A top ten finish would be ideal for the club, but the players don't always think the same way with a number of them considering their future with the club in the summer.
West Ham United could be missing some key players for this trip across London too and they have not been at their best defensively in recent games. Add in the fact that The Hammers have been beaten in 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions and I think it is going to be very difficult for them to get a result at Stamford Bridge this Monday.
The home team have been in very good form in front of their own fans too and I think they are playing with plenty of confidence even if Chelsea have not been blowing teams away. Maurizio Sarri's tactics have yet to really take hold with the players, but I think Chelsea will dominate the ball and they will likely have too much for a West Ham United team who are perhaps lacking a bit of focus at the moment.
You can't ignore the results West Ham United have had in recent visits to Stamford Bridge with 3 draws from their last 5 trips here, but I think Chelsea will have enough to win by a two goal margin on the day.
Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- a goal and an assist in Chelsea's win over Brighton, everything goes through Eden Hazard.
Alternative: Olivier Giroud- got the nod ahead of Gonzalo Higuain on Wednesday and scored the opener which may mean another start for the Frenchman.
Manchester City v Brighton Pick: The first FA Cup Semi Final is played between Manchester City and Brighton and the Premier League leaders are a clear favourite to reach the Final that is played next month.
On current form it is very difficult to see anything other than a Manchester City win, but the key question is whether this is going to be a comfortable victory or one where Brighton can make things very difficult and try and earn the upset.
Chris Hughton's game plan has to be frustrate Manchester City for long periods and try and hurt them on the counter attack. As long as Brighton have a chance in the final 20 minutes I think the manager will be very happy, but recent form has been a worry and I do believe it will be very difficult to contain Pep Guardiola's men.
Manchester City have been a little wasteful in front of goal in their last couple of League games although they have comfortably beaten both Fulham and Cardiff City. They could have won both fixtures by wide margins if they had produced better finishing and I do think there will be spaces for them to exploit if they get their noses in front and just show a touch more composure in front of goal.
Brighton are rarely beaten easily, but they looked short of confidence in going down 3-0 at Chelsea during the week. The focus may already be on big League games coming up next weekend as Brighton fight to avoid a relegation to the Championship and I think Manchester City can keep their positive momentum going.
Most markets have been priced down for Manchester City as the layers take no chances with a team chasing an unprecedented Quadruple, but I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap here even if they have fallen short twice in the last week.
Watford v Wolves Pick: This may not be a FA Cup Semi Final that jumps off the page, but the performances of both Watford and Wolves throughout this season suggests it is going to be a decent game of football for the viewers.
Both teams have been able to play good, attacking football that has impressed the neutrals and I think both Watford and Wolves will enjoy playing on the big Wembley pitch. Wolves already showed that when crushing Tottenham Hotspur 1-3 here in the Premier League, but Watford also were leading against Spurs in an eventual 2-1 loss and I think the football that both managers expect their teams to play makes this an intriguing Semi Final.
Watford look a very big price as the underdog considering they deservedly beat Wolves at Molineux earlier this season, but Wolves have had the superior Cup run. That actually doesn't mean anything ahead of the Semi Final and I would be concerned in backing Wolves considering they have not won any of their last 4 away from their own Stadium.
Some will point to Watford losing their last 3 away from Vicarage Road, but those have come at Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United. Compare that to the Wolves run of away games without a victory being at Bournemouth, Huddersfield Town, Chelsea and Burnley and the fact that they have lost half of those fixtures and I was close to suggesting backing Watford to avoid a loss in normal time by backing them as the underdog on the Asian Handicap.
Instead I am going to look for the two teams to combine for at least three goals which is not what the layers are expecting judging by the odds against quotes. Wolves don't score a lot of goals away from Molineux, but they did score three at this Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur and I think their style will be suited to the big surroundings.
Watford have been scoring and conceding goals regularly in recent weeks and I would not be surprised if both teams get on the scoreboard in this one. The nature of the Cup does lead to spaces potentially opening up if a team is chasing the fixture and I will look for three or more goals to be shared out between these teams who are both also chasing a 7th place finish in the Premier League.
Fantasy Football
Only six of the scheduled ten Premier League fixtures are being played in GW33 but that doesn't mean there are not options for people playing the Fantasy game. There may not be as many players identified in this part of the Weekend Football thread as usual, but you can see those I think can be the difference makers in this GW below.
Goalkeeper 4.8 Million and Above
Kepa (Chelsea- 5.4 Million): A home game with a West Ham United team that may already have turned their attention to the summer does offer a real chance of a clean sheet.
Kasper Schmeichel (Leicester City- 5 Million): In recent games Leicester City have struggled for clean sheets, but they earned one last week and a trip to Huddersfield Town does offer an opportunity for another.
Goalkeeper 4.7 Million and Below
Angus Gunn (Southampton- 4.3 Million): Is going to need to be a big influence if Southampton are going to derail the Liverpool title run. Hard to see a clean sheet and in all honesty I think it's going to be tough for a real positive return from this position outside of the bigger investments.
Defender 5.1 Million and Above
Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool- 5.5 Million): A lot cheaper than both Andrew Robertson and Virgil Van Dijk and retains the same kind of attacking threat as those two pose.
Emerson (Chelsea- 5.2 Million): Marcos Alonso has not been in the best form and struggling with an injury. It could mean a run in the team for Emerson who has an attacking threat to his game too.
Ben Chilwell (Leicester City- 5.1 Million): Another defender with an attacking edge and one who could add a clean sheet with the trip to Huddersfield Town to come this weekend.
Defender 5 Million and Below
Jonny Evans (Leicester City- 4.8 Million): A cheaper way into the Leicester City defence although without the same threat as Chilwell.
Florian Lejeune (Newcastle United- 4.4 Million): Been much better at home and Newcastle United have had a couple of clean sheets here in the last few games.
Midfielder 7.1 Million and Above
Eden Hazard (Chelsea- 11.1 Million): At this stage Chelsea are not prioritising the Europa League over the Premier League top four race and everything good for them comes through Eden Hazard.
Sadio Mane (Liverpool- 10.1 Million): The price jump is down to the form Sadio Mane has been in, cheaper option than Mohamed Salah and player in form.
Mesut Ozil (Arsenal- 7.9 Million): Not a bad price for a player who has been in good form and back in the manager's plans. Problem is Arsenal have been poor away from home and Ozil can underline their lethargy on their travels.
Midfielder 7 Million and Below
James Maddison (Leicester City- 6.8 Million): A trip to Huddersfield Town and James Maddison has produced decent returns in three of the five games played since Claude Puel was sacked.
Callum Hudson-Odoi (Chelsea- 4.2 Million): Maurizio Sarri has indicated he will keep the same line up that beat Brighton and Callum Hudson-Odoi had a strong showing that day.
Forward 6.4 Million and Above
Roberto Firmino (Liverpool- 9.3 Million): Scored last week and another alternative to the pricey Mohamed Salah to get involved in the Liverpool attack.
Jamie Vardy (Leicester City- 9.1 Million): He has been a popular pick for me in this section, but the goals being scored makes the England player hard to ignore.
Olivier Giroud (Chelsea- 7.7 Million): Started up front for Chelsea and scored in the win over Brighton. With hints the same team start against West Ham United, Olivier Giroud could be a relatively cheap attacking option.
Forward 6.3 Million and Below
Solomon Rondon (Newcastle United- 5.9 Million): Has scored in three of the last four games at St James' Park.
Ashley Barnes (Burnley- 5.7 Million): Should have chances at Bournemouth and scored twice against them earlier this season.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton- 5.4 Million): Has scored in two of the last five games for Everton and playing a vulnerable Arsenal defence this weekend.
MY PICKS: Southampton-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Bet365
Bournemouth-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Leicester City to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Fred
Newcastle United-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Ladbrokes
Everton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet365
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365
Watford-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Victor
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