NBA PlayOffs 2019- First Round Series
The regular season is over and we are down to the sixteen teams that are trying to win the NBA Championship.
The PlayOffs begin on Saturday and the first four games of each First Round Series is going to be played between April 13th and April 22nd and I will use this thread to hold all of my selections from those games.
I was enjoying a pretty good start to the NBA regular season when it came to the NBA Picks, but I thought I just needed to step back and make sure I am making the selections for the right reasons. We will soon know if that was the right decision or not as I look to back up the strong PlayOff showing in 2018 which included a solid 3-1 return in the NBA Finals.
Saturday 13th April
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: There are some big expectations around the Philadelphia 76ers but they look like they will be beginning the PlayOffs without Joel Embiid. That is a serious loss for a team that have gone 8-10 without him this season and who have yet to form the chemistry they would have wanted since Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris have joined the team.
Of course they can get things together once the Play Offs begin, but it has been very difficult for teams to turn on the switch when they have not been able to find the consistency at any time in the regular season. The 76ers will be looking to show what they are about when they play Game 1 to open the NBA PlayOffs, but they are facing a Brooklyn Nets team who have been in Play Off mode for some time.
The Nets had to battle for their place in the top eight in the Eastern Conference and they return to the PlayOffs since 2015 when Brooklyn had splashed the cash to try and join the elite in the NBA. This Brooklyn team have surpassed all expectations and they know they will have to play at their best if they are going to find a way to get past the 76ers.
These teams split four games in the regular season and both teams won one of those games on the road. The last time they met came at the end of March and Philadelphia were able to produce a 13 point win on the day, although they did have Embiid available to them.
Now they have entered the PlayOffs with four losses in the last six games compared with the Nets who have won three in a row. The Nets are not as strong on the road as they are at home, but they have been shooting the ball well enough to keep things competitive against the Philadelphia 76ers and edging them out on the boards could make the points on offer for Brooklyn look very appealing.
Philadelphia are capable of getting very hot from the field and pulling away for a comfortable win, but I think the Nets can be trusted having gone 6-1 against the spread in their last seven road games. I know the 76ers have got a stunning record when facing teams with losing records on the road, but Brooklyn should have learnt plenty from the more recent loss to the 76ers and they can keep this one closer than the layers imagine.
The Nets having familiarity with the 76ers through their Division rivalry could be key here with those teams in the Number 6 Seed having a very strong record against the spread in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs against the Number 3 Seed. In Game 1 I will take the points with the underdog.
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Toronto Raptors did not quite have enough to stay with the Milwaukee Bucks for the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but they remain one of the teams favoured to reach the NBA Finals. Seven wins from their last eight games shows the Raptors are ready for the NBA PlayOffs and the depth of the team will have caught the eye of many as that run came through a time when they began to rest players.
One of those wins was against the Orlando Magic who returned to the PlayOffs having missed the post-season in six years in a row before earning the Number 7 Seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Magic made their way into the post-season with four straight wins to end the regular season and that momentum could make them dangerous in Game 1 as they look to steal home court advantage. However they have to hope momentum has not been lost with the regular season ending on Wednesday and the PlayOffs beginning on Saturday, while being in Play Off mode for a while can be difficult for teams who may just relax once they get into the first post-season game.
There is a lot to like about Orlando who have been shooting the ball efficiently from the field and coupling that with the size and energy around the boards to make it difficult for opponents. The Raptors have been shooting the ball just as efficiently as the Magic though and they have been lights out from the three point range which does give them a chance to pull clear if they find their rhythm early in this one.
Games between these teams have been competitive in the regular season and Orlando have tended to be under-rated in those games as proven by their 4-1-1 record against the spread in the last six between these teams. The Magic are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against teams who have won at least 60% of games played.
They are also 8-2 against the spread in their last ten facing a team with a winning record and this looks like enough points to back the underdog in this one.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: They might have finished with the best record in the Western Conference, but there were many times during the regular season when it felt like the Golden State Warriors were going through the motions. Some of that had to be down to the fact that they have won the NBA Finals in three of the last four years and they are chasing a third NBA title in a row with the intensity expected to ramp up in the Play Offs.
There have been times during the regular season when the Warriors did turn up the temperature of their play and that was the case when they last played the Los Angeles Clippers last week. Now they face the Clippers in Game 1 of the NBA PlayOffs as they chase the first of sixteen games they need to win to win another NBA Championship.
It is something of a surprise to see the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA PlayOffs and not many would have expected that of them when they traded away Tobias Harris back in February. A number of rookies have stepped up to join veterans Lou Williams, Danilo Galinari and Patrick Beverley to propel the Clippers into the post-season, but four losses in the last seven games meant they finished with the Number 8 Seed.
The Clippers come into the PlayOffs having continued to perform effectively Offensively, but I think it is going to be a challenge against the Golden State Warriors. Draymond Green could be missing for the Warriors to perhaps weaken the Defensive play, but Golden State have been shooting the ball very well themselves and I think they have a little too much all around for the young Clippers trying to deal with the new environment of PlayOff Basketball.
It can be difficult to back Golden State at home in the last couple of years as they tend to be asked to cover big numbers like the one in front of them in Game 1 on Saturday. However they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games off a straight up loss, and the defending Champions have gone 17-9-1 against the spread in Game 1 of the NBA PlayOffs the following season.
Los Angeles have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five visits to the Oracle Arena, but they were beaten by 27 points earlier this month. I will look for the Warriors to make a statement in their opening NBA PlayOff game on Saturday and I will look for them to cover the number.
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Pick: The San Antonio Spurs maintained their streak of consecutive seasons reaching the PlayOffs and they are the team with the longest record in all American sports in doing that. They finished with the Number 7 Seed in the Western Conference and the San Antonio Spurs have surprised many who felt they would not be good enough to finish in the top eight of a loaded Conference at the start of the season.
It seems like that doubt is going to be used as motivation for the San Antonio Spurs, but it may not be enough when they take on the Number 2 Seeded Denver Nuggets. If some doubted the Spurs, most would have felt the Nuggets were going to come up short in their bid to return to the PlayOffs having missed five post-seasons in a row.
Denver will be using the motivation of being doubted to help them too and home court could be key for them with the altitude at Mile High proving difficult for teams to handle. All four of the regular season games between the Nuggets and Spurs were won by the home team including a blow out in favour of Denver earlier this month.
Momentum is behind the Spurs who have won their last three regular season games compared with the Denver Nuggets who finished off with three wins and four losses. There was no real concern about the way Denver were finishing as Head Coach Michael Malone made sure he was resting key players and looking to keep them fresh for the PlayOffs.
In recent games the teams have been performing at a similar level with decent Defensive performances backed up by good Offensive performances. The Spurs may have a very slight edge when it comes to shooting the three ball at the moment and if they can find themselves getting hot from that distance it will remove the power the Nuggets have around the boards.
However it can be difficult to trust a team that might not to get hot from three point range and I think the Nuggets can back up their blow out win of the Spurs earlier this month. The favourite has actually improved to 10-4 against the spread in the last fourteen games in this Series.
The public look to be behind the Spurs with the points and i do think the Nuggets are going to be highly motivated to show they are a deserving Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference. Denver look to have been focusing on Game 1 a lot longer than the Spurs who were jockeying for position right to the end of the regular season and I think that can potentially show up in Game 1 with the intensity of the home team higher than the visitors.
The Number 2 Seed being opposed by the public have a very strong record against the spread in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs and I will look for the Nuggets to clear the handicap.
Sunday 14th April
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The relatively strong end to the regular season will have just given the Boston Celtics fanbase some optimism to take into the NBA PlayOffs despite finishing with the Number 4 Seed in the Eastern Conference. With LeBron James playing in the Western Conference for the first time in his career, the Celtics were supposed to be the team to beat in the East, but they have struggled to gel together in the way they would have imagined, although recent signs have been more encouraging.
They host the First Round Series with the Indiana Pacers thanks to two wins over them in the final couple of weeks of the regular season. That gave Boston the tie-breaker and ultimately earned them Home Court advantage in the First Round Series and there is some pressure on the Pacers to respond.
Inconsistent form in the final couple of weeks of the regular season has not helped the Pacers who have lost six of their last ten games and tend to play better than the sum of their parts. The 20 point home loss to the Boston Celtics has to be erased from the mind, but it is hard to ignore the fact that Indiana suffered two blow out losses in the three defeats Boston during the regular season.
The more efficient play in the last two games between these teams came from the Celtics, although the loss of Marcus Smart through the next couple of Rounds is going to be a blow to the team. They should still have the depth to beat the Indiana Pacers, especially if Boston can up the intensity on the Defensive side of the court even without arguably their best Defender in Smart.
Even then I think the Celtics may have the edge on the boards and they have players who have produced big post-seasons to give them the edge in Game 1 and in the Series in general.
Boston have been a hard team to trust in home games this season, but Indiana are 7-16 against the spread in their last twenty-three road games. The Pacers have also struggled against teams with winning records at home by going 4-12 against the spread in their last sixteen in that spot and I am going to look for the Celtics to confirm their dominance over this rival by winning by a margin to cover the number in Game 1.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder will be a little disappointed they have not earned a Home Court First Round Series in the NBA PlayOffs, but a five game winning run to end the regular season will have given them some momentum. One of those wins saw them come from double digits behind in the Fourth Quarter to knock off the Houston Rockets and it is a win that has proved to be pivotal to who they are going to face in the First Round.
That win for the Thunder allowed the Portland Trail Blazers to win their last three regular season games and steal the Number 3 Seed from the Houston Rockets. It might not have been the match up that the Trail Blazers would have wanted though as they were beaten in all four regular season games against Oklahoma City, although none of those came by huge margins.
There is going to be a mental obstacle to overcome for the Trail Blazers too who won't have forgotten being swept out of the PlayOffs by the New Orleans Pelicans twelve months ago. Portland were beaten in Game 1 and Game 2 at home in that First Round Series so there are going to be some tensions to deal with on Sunday.
An injury to Jusuf Nurkic is a huge blow for Portland, while CJ McCollum has returned from a ten game absence and yet to really lock in back on the court. That does mean Damian Lillard is under more pressure to perform too and his match up with Russell Westbrook is going to be key to the Series.
Injuries are not just being felt by Portland as Paul George has been struggling for the Thunder. He is going to play in this one, although perhaps not at 100% and that is a concern for Oklahoma City considering how well George has played against Portland all season.
I can see this being a close Series despite the sweep the Thunder earned in the regular season. Both teams match up well and each Game could be decided by which of the two teams finds their rhythm best from three point range.
Being the underdog should motivate the Oklahoma City Thunder and I do think taking the points is appealing in Game 1. The Thunder are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when playing a team with a winning record, while Portland have to deal with the ghosts of PlayOffs past and some tough losses in the post-season.
Mentally the road team should have the edge and the Number 3 Seed has not been a good team to back when playing Divisional opponents in the First Round of the PlayOffs like Portland are having to do here. I am going back yet another road underdog to get off to a good start by covering the number at the least.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Go back three weeks and it would have felt like the Detroit Pistons were not very far away from securing their spot in the PlayOffs. Injuries and a loss of form really hurt the team though and they needed to win their final two regular season games to earn their spot in the post-season, although the 'reward' is facing the team with the best record in the NBA through the regular season.
The task becomes that much bigger for Detroit when thinking they were swept in all four regular season games with the Milwaukee Bucks and star player Blake Griffin could be missing for Game 1.
Milwaukee look to be coming into the PlayOffs as healthy as they could have hoped after getting Giannis Antetokounmpo some rest down the stretch. He is ready to showcase his talents on the big stage, but the Bucks fans might be a little wary knowing their team have lost eight First Round PlayOff Series in a row including a 4-3 defeat to the Boston Celtics twelve months ago.
This does feel like a new era for Milwaukee though and it would be a stunning turn of events for them to be beaten by a team they dominated through the regular season. The average margin of victory was almost 15 points per game so it is no surprise to see the Bucks as a big favourite in Game 1 when you add in the factor of Griffin being a doubt.
In recent games the Bucks have been much more efficient shooting the ball and I do think their depth is going to be a little too much for Detroit in Game 1. This is a difficult first game anyway, but adding to that is the emotion put into the last couple of regular season games to earn a spot into the PlayOffs which has to have had an effect on the Detroit players.
Milwaukee are 13-7 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season, they are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last eleven at home against Detroit.
I do think Detroit will play with nothing to lose and they could be a little more problematic for the Milwaukee Bucks later in this Series, but this first game looks to come at a much better time for the Bucks. It is a huge spread, but I have opposed one already with a Number 1 Seed from the Western Conference and I will lay the points with this Number 1 Seed too.
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets blew a big Fourth Quarter lead in their final regular season game against the Oklahoma City Thunder and that eventually knocked them down into the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference. It does mean they get to host this First Round Series, but there is no doubting the tough set of games in front of them.
The Utah Jazz split four games with the Houston Rockets in the regular season, although they have to recover mentally from a blow out home loss to them in February. This is a tough team that won't allow that to bother them in this First Round Series, but Utah need to make a positive start through the first two games both played on the road.
There won't have been too many associated with the Jazz who have forgotten being beaten in five games by the Rockets in the Western Conference Semi Finals last season either. Once again it makes Game 1 crucial to them to make sure the players know they can compete with a very strong Houston team who had a very good end to the regular season to earn a Home Court Series.
You know what you are going to get from Houston from an Offensive point of view as they will see a lot of James Harden coupled with heavy three point shooting. Despite knowing what is coming, it can be tough for the Utah Jazz to deal with that if they are not able to pick up their intensity on the Defensive side of the court.
In recent games Utah have not been as strong Defensively as they would have liked and that is going to be magnified if Houston continue to play as well as they have been on that side of the court. The reality is that Utah have to make these games low-scoring Defensive ones if they are going to upset the Rockets.
Game 1 could prove to be a chance for them to do that if Clint Capela is still not feeling at 100% which may give Utah the opportunity to dominate the boards. It sounds like Capela will go on Sunday, but Utah can still earn the edge on the glass which can provide them the platform to make this a competitive game.
I do think it is dangerous to oppose Houston who can blitz teams with a heavy dose of the three point shooting. They have been playing very well at home and covering numbers, but I am hoping the delay between the regular season and start of the PlayOffs can just cool down Houston to keep this one close for the road team.
Utah are 20-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty-six games off a straight up loss, while they are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen on the road. They have gone 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four in Houston and the road team is 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight in this series.
This feels like just enough points to take the start with the road team.
Monday 15th April
So every Game 1 from the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs 2019 is now in the books and the favourites have finished up with a 5-3 record against the spread.
Some of them look like they are going to be capable of sweeping through the First Round, although I am expecting better from a few of the teams who did slip to a defeat in Game 1. We had some huge upsets on Saturday afternoon and lower Seeded teams will be looking to move into a 2-0 position before returning home for two games, but this is a time when some of the better teams will be looking to respond and bounce back from a defeat.
There will be some big spreads to cover in Game 2's that are being played over the next three days, and now is the time to really start capping these games and not being dragged into given too much of a factor to how Game 1's have gone.
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: A best of seven First Round Series means none of the teams who have lost the first game should be feeling like things are a lost cause. That is especially the case for those teams who have dropped the first game at home and historically those teams have been very strong at bouncing back when they are playing at home after a defeat.
There is a strong trend that shows teams in the same position as the Philadelphia 76ers have gone 20-7-1 against the spread in this spot and it does make it difficult to want to oppose them.
However they are going to need to make some serious adjustments if they are going to get the better of the Brooklyn Nets after the visitors stole Home Court in this First Round Series on Saturday. One of the main problems for the 76ers was the fact they struggled so badly to shoot the ball from three point range compared with the Brooklyn Nets and you do have to wonder if Philadelphia will be as poor again from the outer arc.
It seems unlikely, but Joel Embiid is not quite at 100% and I do think that is having a negative impact on the team. There is going to be pressure on Philadelphia after the home team turned on them in Game 1 and Ben Simmons won't have helped the situation by having a shot at the fans after that defeat.
Simmons has really been struggling with his shot and the 76ers are going to need someone to help Jimmy Butler and Embiid. Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Mike Scott all had poor showings in Game 1, but they will feel they can be a lot more effective and Philadelphia will be confident they head to New York City with this Series tied.
The Brooklyn Nets have to believe this is a good chance for them to make it 2-0 in the Series and they are going to play Game 2 in a very similar way as they did in Game 1. That is going to be a lot of pick and roll plays as well as looking to move the ball to open positions around the three point line and make sure they sustain their shooting from that range.
That strong trend I mentioned when teams are coming off an upset loss and playing at home in their next game worries me. It is understandable that an underdog perhaps loses some intensity after winning a game on the road while the home favourite focuses to avoid back to back home defeats in the PlayOffs, but Brooklyn are 13-3 against the spread in their last sixteen playing a team with a winning record at home.
The Nets also improved to 5-2 against the spread in their last seven on the road at Philadelphia and I will back them with the points for a second time in this First Round Series.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: This is one of the First Round Series that looked very one-sided at the start of the PlayOffs and nothing that happened in Game 1 will have changed the views of the layers and the fans. The Golden State Warriors are going into Game 2 as a huge favourite again as they look to work their way through to the Western Conference Semi Finals with the minimum of fuss.
In Game 1 the Warriors put together the big runs which has become a feature of their PlayOff Basketball over the last four years and they blew past the Los Angeles Clippers. However they came close to blowing the cover of the big handicap as they managed minutes in the Fourth Quarter and that could be the case in Game 2.
In reality there really isn't a real case to be made for the Clippers who are using a youthful roster and hoping the bench can make the big plays to keep this one competitive. The Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers will be kicking themselves that they were not able to finish above the Clippers and I really don't know if this Series is going to need more than four games to be decided.
That is not the question in this Game 2 though.
The real question is whether the Clippers or Warriors will cover and I am leaning towards the visitor with the points despite their three straight blow outs to Golden State. As much as it can be hard to look past Golden State in a Series like this one, I do think they played close to a perfect Game 1 and being even slightly off with their three point shooting may make this game a little closer.
Los Angeles are set as a double digit underdog again and those teams have gone 26-14-1 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs when they are coming off a loss as a double digit underdog. The Warriors are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten when coming off a win by 10 points or more and the road team is 8-3 against the spread in the last eleven in this series.
Tuesday 16th April
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: Not for the first time this season the Orlando Magic have not only given the Toronto Raptors all they can handle, but they have beaten them as a big underdog on the road. The Magic have stolen home court advantage from Toronto and are looking to back that up with another win to move 2-0 ahead in this First Round Series before it heads to Florida for two games later this week.
It was yet more opening game drama for the Toronto Raptors in the PlayOffs who are now 2-14 in Game 1's played in their history. The fans won't have been too happy, but Toronto have managed to bounce back and fight fire with fire in previous PlayOff Series so there will be a real belief in the locker room they can at least square up the Series before the move to Florida.
The Raptors know they are going to need more out of Kyle Lowry who did not score a bucket from the field in Game 1, although the impact he made on the game was not ignored by Head Coach Nick Nurse. Fans don't look at those things as much as Coaches so Lowry needs to respond and offer some support to Kahwi Leonard who did have a strong PlayOff opening and is not interested in the history of the franchise as an excuse for the Game 1 setback.
I expect Toronto to make some adjustments, but the same can be said for Orlando who will feel very good about winning a game in which both Nikola Vucevic and former Raptor Terrence Ross struggled from the field. Both are bigger influences than what they produced in Game 1 and Vucevic is a few days further from the illness that had made his participation in doubt.
Toronto will continue loading up with the three point shot that was not falling as well as they would have liked in Game 1 and they have to respect Orlando considering they would have had the third best record in the NBA in the regular season from February. However I am expecting a reaction from the Raptors who have gone 3-1 against the spread in their last four Game 2's played after a Game 1 loss and when not facing LeBron James.
The Raptors beat Orlando by double digits in early April here and the Number 2 Seed has gone 21-13-2 against the spread when the public are favouring their Number 7 Seed opponent in the PlayOffs. I ignored this trend with the 76ers on Monday, but teams off an upset loss as a top three Seed have gone 21-7-1 against the spread in their next game if their opponent covered the spread by 11 points or more in the previous game.
Orlando have some very strong trends behind them thanks to a really strong run to end the regular season, but I am looking for a reaction from the Raptors and I think they can win this one going away.
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: The Denver Nuggets are one of a number of teams who have lost Home Court advantage in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but this is a team who have shown they won't let one or two losses get them down. They return home for Game 2 and will be looking to remind the San Antonio Spurs why they finished with the Number 2 Seed and the Nuggets should be backed by a raucous home crowd.
It was a wire to wire win for the San Antonio Spurs, but they had to ride out a storm at the end of the game which could have very easily gone the other way. They are expecting a real reaction from the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio are going to be challenged for back to back road wins considering how erratically they played on the road all season.
For now the players know they have a chance to really put their stamp on this First Round Series by moving two games ahead and knowing three of the remaining five games would be played on their home court where the Spurs have been very strong. That should keep them relaxed and focused with all of the pressure on the home team and the veterans of San Antonio with their deep PlayOff experience should be able to produce another big game.
Jamal Murray had a tough debut in the PlayOffs, but the Nuggets are very much behind their young star and I think he will have a bounce back performance in Game 2. You have to believe the entire Nuggets team will shoot much more efficiently from the field, especially from the three point distance, and a strong home record against the San Antonio Spurs before Game 1 will not have been erased from the memories.
I do think San Antonio have scope for improvement too, but I am going with the same selection I had in Game 1 and that is backing the Denver Nuggets to win and cover the spread.
Like the Toronto Raptors, the Denver Nuggets are being opposed by the public and the Number 2 Seed is 21-13-2 against the spread against the Number 7 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. Also like the Raptors, Denver are off an upset loss and are home for the next game where teams have improved to 30-16-1 against the spread when they are one of the top three Seeds off that upset.
The Spurs are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven off a straight up win and I am going to lay the points in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 2 Pick: A blistering start to Game 1 saw the Portland Trail Blazers build a big lead by the end of the First Quarter. They were able to hang on for their first PlayOff win in eleven attempts and the memories of being swept out of 2018 PlayOffs in the First Round by the New Orleans Pelicans should be behind them.
The start to Game 1 saw Portland drain three pointer after three pointer, but the fightback made by the Thunder continues to demonstrate why the team who swept the regular season series between the two teams is such a hard matchup for the Trail Blazers. Huge efforts from Damian Lillard and especially Enes Kanter helped Portland come away with the win, but getting a repeat from both is going to be critical.
I can't imagine Oklahoma City are going to give Lillard the same type of room they did in Game 1 when a huge three pointer with under three minutes to play in a one point game proved the big play to win the game for the home team. Russell Westbrook almost dared Lillard to launch from way outside the three point arc, but the ball going down should mean one of the adjustments is to get closer to the star Point Guard.
Oklahoma City also have to hope Paul George can get a little healthier, although it is a long shot when you think of where he was in the days leading up to the PlayOffs. It is arguable that George is a bigger factor than Westbrook for the Thunder if they are going to upset the higher Seed and Game 2 will tell us plenty about what kind of energy he is going to have in the tank.
Paul George himself has announced he is ready to go, but the real test will come during the game and the Thunder will need to him so they can turn the tables on the three point shooting from Game 1. Where Portland nailed plenty, Oklahoma City struggled and in a five point game it doesn't take a genius to suggest a slight adjustment there will swing the game the other way.
The Trail Blazers are not sitting down and admiring their own performance in Game 1 and will be looking to make some adjustments too, but I am still of the belief that the Thunder are the better team. That is especially the case if George is good to go, and they can win their first PlayOff road game in three years.
The layers feel this is going to be the closest of the three NBA PlayOff games scheduled for Tuesday and I feel the same. However I will take the points with the road team who I feel have more scope for improvement from Game 1 to Game 2.
Wednesday 17th April
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: Game 1 of this NBA PlayOffs First Round Series was pretty much one of the more ugly ones we have seen in the post-season so far. Neither the Boston Celtics or the Indiana Pacers shot the ball anywhere near the level they can produce, but the home team won't be overly concerned after locking down Defensively in the second half and moving into a 1-0 lead.
The Boston Celtics will still be looking to make some adjustments to get their shooters a little more open in this one as they look to put a fourth consecutive win over the Pacers in the books for April 2019. Two of those wins in the regular season ensured a Home Court First Round Series between these two teams, but Game 1 was the first time both struggled from the field as much as they did.
More adjustments obviously have to be made by the Indiana Pacers who will believe they can be more efficient from the field than they were in Game 1. The absence of Victor Oladipo does mean Indiana don't have the consistent scorer you would like to turn to in the PlayOffs, but they are not using that as an excuse and have to hope Darren Collison is a little healthier having struggled in Game 1.
There will also be the belief that the Celtics can't produce the same type of Defensive effort as they did in Game 1 especially with Marcus Smart out of the line up.
The layers have made a significant adjustment of their own as they have reduced the total point line by 6.5 points from Game 1 to Game 2. I think that may be too much of an adjustment based on a single game sample and three of their four games in the regular season saw the 'over' come into play.
Indiana have bounced back from sub-par Offensive efforts this season with the three times they have been held to under 80 points being followed by 100 plus points being scored. The 'over' is also 14-3 in the last seventeen when Indiana have scored less than 75 points and I think both teams will be a lot better Offensively in Game 2 which can see this total line surpassed.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: We have seen a couple of huge blow outs in the NBA PlayOffs over the first few days of the post-season, but the biggest was the one handed out by the Milwaukee Bucks to the Detroit Pistons. For the third time this season Milwaukee have beaten Detroit by 20 plus points at home and they are being asked to cover the biggest spread of the Game 2's being played in the First Round Series.
The absence of Blake Griffin is a huge one for the Pistons, although I am not sure he is going to be missing the entire Series as some reported prior to the start of the PlayOffs. Griffin himself is pushing for a return in Game 2, but I think he is going to be held out for a few more days at the least and that means there is a pressure on the rest of the Detroit roster to step up their game.
Game 1 was a terrible performance all around from the Pistons and it is hard to see much changing for them considering how the regular season panned out between these teams. However I am not sure the Milwaukee Bucks are going to be as intense as they were and that may give Detroit an opportunity to cover with the huge amount of points being given to them.
The Pistons are going to have to make some serious adjustments to be more competitive as the Milwaukee Bucks seemed to be able to do whatever they wanted to from the field. A heavy dose of three pointers being hit made it impossible for Detroit to keep up with the Bucks who have been very strong covering the spread when set as a huge favourite of 14 points or higher.
In reality it is very difficult seeing anything but another Milwaukee win. This is a team with a lot of reasons to continue to make a statement after finishing with the best regular season record and Milwaukee work hard on the court which gives them every chance of covering a spread that is even as big as this one.
Winning is one thing, but I also think the Pistons should now be settled into the PlayOffs having battled hard to finish with the Number 8 Seed after needing to win their final two regular season games. That could have been another factor in the manner of their defeat in Game 1 and I would expect Detroit to be a lot better all around even if they are unlikely to be good enough to extend this Series.
Teams that have lost as double digit underdogs and set as a double digit underdog again have gone 27-14-1 against the spread in the NBA PlayOffs First Round. That situation improved when the Los Angeles Clippers upset the Golden State Warriors earlier this week in Game 2 too, and I will look for Detroit to make this a much more competitive game with the points behind them.
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Game 2 Pick: A blowout defeat in Game 1 will have hurt the Utah Jazz and you have to think they are going to need to be a lot more competitive in Game 2 to avoid having memories of the way they were beaten by the Houston Rockets in the PlayOffs twelve months ago. There are some real adjustments Utah need to make on both sides of the court if they are going to make this Game 2 a lot closer than the last one was, but they have the confidence to do that.
Failing to dominate the boards and a 39% shooting percentage from the field put Utah in a very difficult position, but the players are reminding everyone that they are only 1-0 down in the Series regardless of the margin of defeat. Last year the Jazz lost Game 1 in Houston and came back and beat them in Game 2 on their way to a five game defeat in the Western Conference Semi Finals so they have shown they can pick themselves up from setbacks.
That Series has also been on the minds of the Houston players who remember what happened after a Game 1 win last season. James Harden will be looking to find a little more room and the role players are going to have to keep their performances at a high level to help the Rockets move into a commanding 2-0 lead in the Series.
The Rockets will be looking to lock down Defensively against the Utah Jazz again and their improvement on that side of the court makes Houston a real threat to reach the NBA Finals. As much as they have been stronger on the Defensive side of the court, I do think Utah can expect to get more out of their starters who underachieved in Game 1 and I think that is going to factor in this Game 2 and produce the first 'over' between these teams in Houston.
In their Western Conference Semi Final Series last season Game 2 did end up sailing 'over' the line after an 'under' in Game 1 and I think that could be the outcome again.
Utah's ability to bounce back from big defeats has helped the 'over' which has gone 8-3 in their last eleven games following a double digit loss. I think Houston will continue to get their points, but I am also expecting a lot more from the Jazz and I will look for these teams to combine for more than the total points line.
Wednesday 18th April
The First Round Series are all shifting from the venue for the first two games as the top Seeds get set for two games on the road.
Half of those Series have seen the top Seeds win both home games while the other half are at 1-1. Not many are going to be tipping up too many of the lower Seeds to get through to the Conference Semi Finals from here, but I think or two have real life in them. All of those lower Seeds will be looking to win two games at home in the next few days over the Easter Weekend to keep their dreams alive, but there is going to be a lot of work to do to manage that.
I would expect at least one, and possibly two, of the First Round Series to be concluded without the need for a Game 5 but games are played on the court and I will be watching with some interest in what has been a mixed PlayOffs for the First Round selections made.
The favourites have been dominating since the first day of the PlayOffs and that is something that the layers will begin to make adjustments for. Hopefully I will be able to spot the value plays through to Easter Monday and start putting a consistent positive run together.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The most chippy of the First Round NBA PlayOff Series has to be the one between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Brooklyn Nets and I think there is going to be a raucous atmosphere at the Barclays Center on Thursday evening.
One of the controversial moments in Game 2 had to be the Joel Embiid elbow on Jarrett Allen which saw Embiid avoid an ejection from the game. Some have criticised the referees for missing the call, while the Nets have been upset by the cameras catching Embiid and Ben Simmons laughing about the incident in the post-game conference.
There have been a few comments from the Nets about the whole issue, but they are also concentrating on returning home for two games having stolen Home Court advantage in Game 1. The Nets even led at half time in Game 2 before Simmons turned on the style and the 76ers had a huge third quarter which changed the game in their favour.
Both regular games between these teams at the Barclays Center were very close affairs and I have every reason to believe this one is going to be the same. The Nets will make the adjustments to get themselves a little more open from the three point line and I do think they match up well with the 76ers despite the way they were blown away in the second half of Game 2.
I have backed the Nets in both games as the underdog and I think they can be backed as the home underdog in Game 3 too. The 76ers still don't have a fully healthy Joel Embiid which does weaken the Number 3 Seed, while they are going to need Ben Simmons to perform at a very high level throughout the Series and I am not sure he can match the Game 2 performance.
Brooklyn have shown they can bounce back from defeats like the one they suffered in Game 2 and they have gone 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve games off a double digit loss. The Nets have also enjoyed a 16-5 record against the spread in their last twenty-one games when playing with two days rest between games having played Game 2 on Monday.
A lot of people are likely going to assume that the Philadelphia 76ers are completely back on track, but I think they are going to need another big performance from inconsistent Simmons to win Game 3. The close games with Brooklyn show these teams match up well and the 76ers are 2-11 against the spread when favoured by less than 4 points this season.
The 76ers are also 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a win and they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven on the road. With the Nets returning home in what should be a fantastic atmosphere, I am suggesting taking the points with Brooklyn in this one as I have in the first two games of this Series.
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: It looked like the Denver Nuggets were going to be heading to Texas in a big hole as they trailed the San Antonio Spurs in the fourth quarter of Game 2. Jamal Murray came alive for the Number 2 Seed in that quarter after struggling throughout the first seven quarters of the Series and he was a huge influence in the Nuggets rallying and winning and covering.
The Number 2 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have had considerable success historically, but I am not sure the Nuggets are as a strong a 2 Seed as the others that have had this spot previously. There are some really good trends that are favouring the Denver Nuggets, but the San Antonio Spurs have been a different prospect at home all season and the veterans will know they had the better of the Denver Nuggets through the first two games of this Series and should be 2-0 ahead.
Being at 1-1 is a blow, but DeMar DeRozan was correct in saying that the Spurs are still in a very strong position and holding onto Home Court through the remainder of the First Round Series will move them onto the Western Conference Semi Finals.
San Antonio have won the battle on the boards in each of the first two games and it was only some poor Defensive play and losing their way from the field that cost them Game 2. I still think more adjustments need to be made by the Denver Nuggets if they are going to find the consistency they want to beat a team who have tended to dominate the head to head between the teams.
The Spurs won both regular season games between these teams at home and it was only another poor fourth quarter that gave the Denver the chance of winning the last of those. Gregg Popovich will be urging his players to perform for the full 48 minutes and make sure San Antonio maintain their advantage in the Series and I do think they are the superior team.
Denver have failed to cover in five of their last seven visits to San Antonio and the Spurs are 16-7 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season. The favourite has improved to 11-5 against the spread in this Series and the Nuggets are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record at home.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 3 Pick: The DeMarcus Cousins injury in the first half of Game 2 has ruled him out of the entire post-season for the Golden State Warriors, but that was not the reason the defending Champions blew Game 2 of this First Round Series. The Los Angeles Clippers completed the biggest comeback in PlayOff history by recovering from a 31 point deficit in the second half to not only cover as a double digit underdog, but actually square up this First Round Series.
Home Court has been stolen by the Clippers, but they are going to need plenty more magic if they are going to upset the Warriors. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell were huge off the bench as the Clippers rallied, but they are going to need to do plenty more of the same if Golden State are to be beaten.
There is no doubting how irritated Golden State were in losing the game in the manner they did and I expect them to come out focused and ready to show why they are the team to beat in most people's eyes. The Warriors can't have such a sloppy half again as they did in Game 2 and I think they showed in the first two games they have a lot of advantages over the Clippers who will be relying on the bench to produce again.
The injury to Cousins is a blow for the Warriors, but they were successful without him last season and I think Golden State are going to produce a big performance in this Game 3. Prior to the defeat in Game 2, the Warriors had beaten the Los Angeles Clippers by 18, 27 and 17 points in three consecutive games and I think they can keep control of the boards and also double down their focus to make sure they can steal back Home Court advantage.
Golden State are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in Los Angeles against the Clippers. They are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games following a loss. I expect them to be well rested and focused to redeem themselves after the way Game 2 ended and the Clippers did not end the season in very good form when playing the better teams in the NBA.
I am expecting a big reaction from the defending Champions.
Friday 19th April
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Game 3 Pick: After losing yet another Game 1 in a PlayOff Series, the Toronto Raptors have bounced back with a dominant win in Game 2 to head to Florida at 1-1 with the Orlando Magic. That has been the case in recent PlayOff Series for the Raptors, but they will want to break the trend of losing Game 3 having done that in their last four PlayOff Series including in the First Round in each of the last two seasons.
The blowout in Game 2 might suggest this is going to be the time when Toronto take full control of the Series, but the Orlando Magic are one of the hottest teams coming into the PlayOffs. There has to be a boost from the first PlayOff game at home since 2012 and the Magic have won their last nine games at home in the regular season.
There is going to be a confidence they can perform at home and Orlando have covered in both games played against the Raptors here in the regular season. They won one of those games outright so the Magic are going to be encouraged as they look to take a grip on this First Round Series.
Nikola Vucevic is going to be needed if the Magic are going to give the Raptors all they can handle in this Series and he has yet to really produce in the first two games played north of the border. He has made a point of studying the tapes and figuring out how he can make a bigger impact in Game 3 and that is going to be a key adjustment in this one.
I am expecting a response from the Magic who are 5-2-1 against the spread in the last eight in their head to heads with Toronto. One concern has to be the 14-1 run against the spread that favourites are on in the NBA PlayOffs and Toronto are a team who have some very strong trends behind them, but this feels like a few too many points to be handing a team who have been in fine form at home.
Orlando are 10-7-1 against the spread as a home underdog this season and the Magic are 12-7 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. The Magic have played well enough to think they can keep this one competitive and I will look for this underdog to snap the negative run those teams have been on in the NBA PlayOffs since the opening Saturday of the post-season.
My remaining two Picks from Good Friday can be seen in the MY PICKS section below.
Saturday 20th April
It is Easter Weekend so there needs to be some time spent with family as well as making sure I am putting up a few of my NBA Picks as well as from the Boxing which is taking place. It means on Saturday I will have two fuller posts about the selections being made from the Game 3's and Game 4's being played and two that I will add to the 'MY PICKS' section below.
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 4 Pick: The San Antonio Spurs moved 2-1 up in this First Round Series with a home victory on Thursday and with a little more focus they could easily have been on the brink of making the Western Conference Semi Finals. Only a blown fourth quarter in Game 2 is preventing the Spurs having the chance to sweep this Series, but they look the best placed of the lower Seeds that are going to upset their opponents in the First Round.
Focus is the key for the Spurs and they know this Series can quickly turn on its head if they were to drop Game 4 and then be involved in what is essentially a best of three Series with two of those games being played on the road. There have been times when the Spurs have failed to complete a full 48 minutes and allowed opponents to steal wins they shouldn't have earned and that is a concern for them, but three wins out of three at home against the Denver Nuggets in the 2018/19 season will give them plenty of belief.
More adjustments have to be made by the Denver Nuggets who achieved the Number 2 Seed but had doubters about their abilities throughout the season. They pushed the Golden State Warriors all the way in the regular season for the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference, so you have to respect the Nuggets, but this is a team who are struggling without the experience of much PlayOff Basketball in recent years and they are going to need San Antonio to help them as much as anything they do themselves to get back into this Series.
There are some decent talents on the Denver roster, but they have yet to really put together the kind of chemistry they had in the regular season. The Nuggets have also struggled on the road all season and now face one of the toughest home teams in the NBA and one who made into the PlayOffs very much because of the huge amount of wins they produced in front of their own fans.
Gregg Popovich has plenty of experience to make sure he can keep his players grounded and focused for this game and I think that will help them ignore the noise about being favourites and moving to the hill at 3-1 in the Series. It can be hard to back a team who are being pounded by the public and the zig-zag theory has worked in this PlayOff Series so far, while the Number 2 Seed historically has been in a very strong spot to be backed when facing the Number 7 Seed on the road as also as an underdog.
However I can't ignore how well the Spurs have played as a small favourite as they improved to 17-7 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season. They also improved to 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at home against the Denver Nuggets and the visitors are now 2-6 against the spread in their last eight road games at a team who have a winning record at home.
Sometimes the spread can be too good to be true, and that is a concern when the public money hasn't shifted the number, but the Spurs look the better team. It might be even a little closer than Game 3, but I think the San Antonio Spurs will cover and move to the brink of the Western Conference Semi Finals.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Game 3 Pick: This always felt like a Series that would be dominated by the Milwaukee Bucks and they have put up two strong victories over the Detroit Pistons to move into a commanding position.
Now the First Round Series is headed back to Detroit who have to be hoping a change of scenery will help them find a way to get back into this one. The absence of Blake Griffin has really not helped the chances of earning an upset, although his presence on the bench has actually resulted in a Technical being given against him in both games played in the Series.
That does show there is a real passion from the Pistons to try and challenge the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They were much better in Game 2 compared with the complete blowout in Game 1, but once again it was a defeat by 20 plus points and I really don't know if there is a lot that the Pistons can do about things to change them around.
Their biggest asset may be complacency on the part of the Milwaukee Bucks, but that is looking a long shot with this group of players all working hard to write their names down in NBA history. The two games played in Detroit were closer in the regular season, although both were won by the Bucks and one of those came by a double digit margin so all in all it looks a very tall task for the Number 8 Seed to get back into this Series.
A Number 1 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs playing a Number 8 Seed with a sub 0.500 record have improved to 38-25-2 against the spread. A Number 1 Seed who have won and covered in back to back games are also 24-11 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs and those are two trends favouring the Bucks in this one.
Those teams are also 15-3 against the spread when the Number 1 Seed has covered the last spread by four or more points which is the case for the Bucks and I am leaning heavily towards the road team. Detroit have to be respected with their 11-3 record against the spread in their last fourteen home games, but Milwaukee are riding some incredible trends and the road team can move to the brink of the First Round sweep.
Picks from Philadelphia @ Brooklyn and Houston @ Utah can be seen in the MY PICKS section.
Sunday 21st April
It has not been a great Easter Sunday after the Manchester United result earlier in the day and I am going to add the NBA PlayOff selections for this day in the 'MY PICKS' section below as the majority of the First Round Series complete their Game 4s.
Monday 22nd April
The remaining First Round PlayOff Games are going to be covered in a new thread which I will post on Tuesday, but the last of the Game 4s is played on Easter Monday and those are going to be covered below. A poor Sunday knocked me back a little bit, but I am going to conclude the first half of the First Round with a winning record regardless of what happens on Monday, but I would very much like to have two more winners to add to a solid start to the PlayOffs.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Game 4 Pick: Blake Griffin was back to give the Detroit Pistons a boost in this First Round PlayOff Series, but it was more of the same as they were beaten for the seventh time this season by the Number 1 Seeded Milwaukee Bucks. Once again it was a big loss for the Pistons who almost backed their way into the PlayOffs and who have struggled to match a Milwaukee team that are set for a huge Eastern Conference Semi Final Series with the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics have already swept through their First Round Series with the Indiana Pacers on Sunday and now will be resting and hoping the Pistons can at least extend this First Round Series by one or even two more games. That does look like being a long shot with Milwaukee dominating in all aspects of the first three games and I am not sure how Detroit can adjust to make this Game 4 any more competitive than the first three games have been.
Like I mentioned in Game 3, Detroit are desperately searching for the adjustments to make this a competitive Series, but they look short in most areas. Even the boost that would have come with seeing Griffin suited up was not enough for Detroit whose strengths are bettered by what the Bucks bring to the table.
The layers have made the biggest adjustment so far by inflating this point spread between Game 3 and Game 4. The Milwaukee Bucks have won by at least 16 points in each of the three games in this First Round Series, while the closest the Pistons have got to the Bucks in their last six games is a 10 point defeat.
Milwaukee have improved to 6-0-1 against the spread in the last seven between these Divisional rivals and they are also 15-7 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season. The favourite in this series between these two teams is now 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven games and I do think the Milwaukee Bucks will be looking to get the broomsticks out and make sure they are rested physically and mentally before the big Semi Final Series with the Boston Celtics.
Teams who have lost three in a row in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs are 87-103-1 against the spread historically in this Round of the post-season. Those teams have been a bit more successful at home, but the Detroit Pistons will do well to get this back to Milwaukee and I do think the Bucks can produce one more big game to cover what is a large spread for any road team to be dealing with.
The Detroit Pistons have not covered in any of their last six games facing a team with a winning record, while they are 1-5 against the spread when coming off a double digit loss at home. Milwaukee have dominated Divisional rivals by improving to 16-4-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one against those teams in their Division and I think they can cover the number here.
Houston Texans @ Utah Jazz Game 4 Pick: Last season the Houston Rockets crushed the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference Semi Finals and they are on the brink of doing the same in the NBA PlayOffs First Round this time around. Game 3 was a tighter contest than the first two games in this Series have been, but Utah came up short again and the Houston Rockets will be looking to sweep their way through to what many expect will be a Series with the defending Champions Golden State Warriors.
Being up 3-0 and the chance to get the broomsticks out will motivate the Houston Rockets and all of the money seems to be going on the Rockets. The public are convinced the superior team is going to do enough to not only win this game, but also come through as a favourite as the layers have switched the favourite from Game 3 to Game 4.
In reality the Utah Jazz could not have played much better than they did in Game 3 and they still came up short with the Houston Rockets edging them out in a 3 point road win. My concern for the Jazz is the players will have dropped their heads completely and the trend I mentioned in the Milwaukee-Detroit game of teams on a three game losing run in the First Round of the PlayOffs could come to the fore in favour of the road Rockets again.
However I did mention that teams playing at home have shown a little more fight and that is where the Utah Jazz will be for Game 4. They are also coming off a home loss as the favourite and will be hosting Game 4 which has been a good spot for teams off upset losses in the past. Those teams are 57-35-4 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs and I think the Utah Jazz can do their best to try and force a Game 5 at the least.
Most of the trends in the head to head are favouring Houston, but Utah will be motivated to give their fans something to smile about. They are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven following a loss and I will look to take the points here with the home team.
Sunday 14th April
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The relatively strong end to the regular season will have just given the Boston Celtics fanbase some optimism to take into the NBA PlayOffs despite finishing with the Number 4 Seed in the Eastern Conference. With LeBron James playing in the Western Conference for the first time in his career, the Celtics were supposed to be the team to beat in the East, but they have struggled to gel together in the way they would have imagined, although recent signs have been more encouraging.
They host the First Round Series with the Indiana Pacers thanks to two wins over them in the final couple of weeks of the regular season. That gave Boston the tie-breaker and ultimately earned them Home Court advantage in the First Round Series and there is some pressure on the Pacers to respond.
Inconsistent form in the final couple of weeks of the regular season has not helped the Pacers who have lost six of their last ten games and tend to play better than the sum of their parts. The 20 point home loss to the Boston Celtics has to be erased from the mind, but it is hard to ignore the fact that Indiana suffered two blow out losses in the three defeats Boston during the regular season.
The more efficient play in the last two games between these teams came from the Celtics, although the loss of Marcus Smart through the next couple of Rounds is going to be a blow to the team. They should still have the depth to beat the Indiana Pacers, especially if Boston can up the intensity on the Defensive side of the court even without arguably their best Defender in Smart.
Even then I think the Celtics may have the edge on the boards and they have players who have produced big post-seasons to give them the edge in Game 1 and in the Series in general.
Boston have been a hard team to trust in home games this season, but Indiana are 7-16 against the spread in their last twenty-three road games. The Pacers have also struggled against teams with winning records at home by going 4-12 against the spread in their last sixteen in that spot and I am going to look for the Celtics to confirm their dominance over this rival by winning by a margin to cover the number in Game 1.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder will be a little disappointed they have not earned a Home Court First Round Series in the NBA PlayOffs, but a five game winning run to end the regular season will have given them some momentum. One of those wins saw them come from double digits behind in the Fourth Quarter to knock off the Houston Rockets and it is a win that has proved to be pivotal to who they are going to face in the First Round.
That win for the Thunder allowed the Portland Trail Blazers to win their last three regular season games and steal the Number 3 Seed from the Houston Rockets. It might not have been the match up that the Trail Blazers would have wanted though as they were beaten in all four regular season games against Oklahoma City, although none of those came by huge margins.
There is going to be a mental obstacle to overcome for the Trail Blazers too who won't have forgotten being swept out of the PlayOffs by the New Orleans Pelicans twelve months ago. Portland were beaten in Game 1 and Game 2 at home in that First Round Series so there are going to be some tensions to deal with on Sunday.
An injury to Jusuf Nurkic is a huge blow for Portland, while CJ McCollum has returned from a ten game absence and yet to really lock in back on the court. That does mean Damian Lillard is under more pressure to perform too and his match up with Russell Westbrook is going to be key to the Series.
Injuries are not just being felt by Portland as Paul George has been struggling for the Thunder. He is going to play in this one, although perhaps not at 100% and that is a concern for Oklahoma City considering how well George has played against Portland all season.
I can see this being a close Series despite the sweep the Thunder earned in the regular season. Both teams match up well and each Game could be decided by which of the two teams finds their rhythm best from three point range.
Being the underdog should motivate the Oklahoma City Thunder and I do think taking the points is appealing in Game 1. The Thunder are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when playing a team with a winning record, while Portland have to deal with the ghosts of PlayOffs past and some tough losses in the post-season.
Mentally the road team should have the edge and the Number 3 Seed has not been a good team to back when playing Divisional opponents in the First Round of the PlayOffs like Portland are having to do here. I am going back yet another road underdog to get off to a good start by covering the number at the least.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Go back three weeks and it would have felt like the Detroit Pistons were not very far away from securing their spot in the PlayOffs. Injuries and a loss of form really hurt the team though and they needed to win their final two regular season games to earn their spot in the post-season, although the 'reward' is facing the team with the best record in the NBA through the regular season.
The task becomes that much bigger for Detroit when thinking they were swept in all four regular season games with the Milwaukee Bucks and star player Blake Griffin could be missing for Game 1.
Milwaukee look to be coming into the PlayOffs as healthy as they could have hoped after getting Giannis Antetokounmpo some rest down the stretch. He is ready to showcase his talents on the big stage, but the Bucks fans might be a little wary knowing their team have lost eight First Round PlayOff Series in a row including a 4-3 defeat to the Boston Celtics twelve months ago.
This does feel like a new era for Milwaukee though and it would be a stunning turn of events for them to be beaten by a team they dominated through the regular season. The average margin of victory was almost 15 points per game so it is no surprise to see the Bucks as a big favourite in Game 1 when you add in the factor of Griffin being a doubt.
In recent games the Bucks have been much more efficient shooting the ball and I do think their depth is going to be a little too much for Detroit in Game 1. This is a difficult first game anyway, but adding to that is the emotion put into the last couple of regular season games to earn a spot into the PlayOffs which has to have had an effect on the Detroit players.
Milwaukee are 13-7 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season, they are 7-3-1 against the spread in their last eleven at home against Detroit.
I do think Detroit will play with nothing to lose and they could be a little more problematic for the Milwaukee Bucks later in this Series, but this first game looks to come at a much better time for the Bucks. It is a huge spread, but I have opposed one already with a Number 1 Seed from the Western Conference and I will lay the points with this Number 1 Seed too.
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets blew a big Fourth Quarter lead in their final regular season game against the Oklahoma City Thunder and that eventually knocked them down into the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference. It does mean they get to host this First Round Series, but there is no doubting the tough set of games in front of them.
The Utah Jazz split four games with the Houston Rockets in the regular season, although they have to recover mentally from a blow out home loss to them in February. This is a tough team that won't allow that to bother them in this First Round Series, but Utah need to make a positive start through the first two games both played on the road.
There won't have been too many associated with the Jazz who have forgotten being beaten in five games by the Rockets in the Western Conference Semi Finals last season either. Once again it makes Game 1 crucial to them to make sure the players know they can compete with a very strong Houston team who had a very good end to the regular season to earn a Home Court Series.
You know what you are going to get from Houston from an Offensive point of view as they will see a lot of James Harden coupled with heavy three point shooting. Despite knowing what is coming, it can be tough for the Utah Jazz to deal with that if they are not able to pick up their intensity on the Defensive side of the court.
In recent games Utah have not been as strong Defensively as they would have liked and that is going to be magnified if Houston continue to play as well as they have been on that side of the court. The reality is that Utah have to make these games low-scoring Defensive ones if they are going to upset the Rockets.
Game 1 could prove to be a chance for them to do that if Clint Capela is still not feeling at 100% which may give Utah the opportunity to dominate the boards. It sounds like Capela will go on Sunday, but Utah can still earn the edge on the glass which can provide them the platform to make this a competitive game.
I do think it is dangerous to oppose Houston who can blitz teams with a heavy dose of the three point shooting. They have been playing very well at home and covering numbers, but I am hoping the delay between the regular season and start of the PlayOffs can just cool down Houston to keep this one close for the road team.
Utah are 20-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty-six games off a straight up loss, while they are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen on the road. They have gone 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four in Houston and the road team is 6-1-1 against the spread in the last eight in this series.
This feels like just enough points to take the start with the road team.
Monday 15th April
So every Game 1 from the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs 2019 is now in the books and the favourites have finished up with a 5-3 record against the spread.
Some of them look like they are going to be capable of sweeping through the First Round, although I am expecting better from a few of the teams who did slip to a defeat in Game 1. We had some huge upsets on Saturday afternoon and lower Seeded teams will be looking to move into a 2-0 position before returning home for two games, but this is a time when some of the better teams will be looking to respond and bounce back from a defeat.
There will be some big spreads to cover in Game 2's that are being played over the next three days, and now is the time to really start capping these games and not being dragged into given too much of a factor to how Game 1's have gone.
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: A best of seven First Round Series means none of the teams who have lost the first game should be feeling like things are a lost cause. That is especially the case for those teams who have dropped the first game at home and historically those teams have been very strong at bouncing back when they are playing at home after a defeat.
There is a strong trend that shows teams in the same position as the Philadelphia 76ers have gone 20-7-1 against the spread in this spot and it does make it difficult to want to oppose them.
However they are going to need to make some serious adjustments if they are going to get the better of the Brooklyn Nets after the visitors stole Home Court in this First Round Series on Saturday. One of the main problems for the 76ers was the fact they struggled so badly to shoot the ball from three point range compared with the Brooklyn Nets and you do have to wonder if Philadelphia will be as poor again from the outer arc.
It seems unlikely, but Joel Embiid is not quite at 100% and I do think that is having a negative impact on the team. There is going to be pressure on Philadelphia after the home team turned on them in Game 1 and Ben Simmons won't have helped the situation by having a shot at the fans after that defeat.
Simmons has really been struggling with his shot and the 76ers are going to need someone to help Jimmy Butler and Embiid. Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Mike Scott all had poor showings in Game 1, but they will feel they can be a lot more effective and Philadelphia will be confident they head to New York City with this Series tied.
The Brooklyn Nets have to believe this is a good chance for them to make it 2-0 in the Series and they are going to play Game 2 in a very similar way as they did in Game 1. That is going to be a lot of pick and roll plays as well as looking to move the ball to open positions around the three point line and make sure they sustain their shooting from that range.
That strong trend I mentioned when teams are coming off an upset loss and playing at home in their next game worries me. It is understandable that an underdog perhaps loses some intensity after winning a game on the road while the home favourite focuses to avoid back to back home defeats in the PlayOffs, but Brooklyn are 13-3 against the spread in their last sixteen playing a team with a winning record at home.
The Nets also improved to 5-2 against the spread in their last seven on the road at Philadelphia and I will back them with the points for a second time in this First Round Series.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: This is one of the First Round Series that looked very one-sided at the start of the PlayOffs and nothing that happened in Game 1 will have changed the views of the layers and the fans. The Golden State Warriors are going into Game 2 as a huge favourite again as they look to work their way through to the Western Conference Semi Finals with the minimum of fuss.
In Game 1 the Warriors put together the big runs which has become a feature of their PlayOff Basketball over the last four years and they blew past the Los Angeles Clippers. However they came close to blowing the cover of the big handicap as they managed minutes in the Fourth Quarter and that could be the case in Game 2.
In reality there really isn't a real case to be made for the Clippers who are using a youthful roster and hoping the bench can make the big plays to keep this one competitive. The Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Lakers will be kicking themselves that they were not able to finish above the Clippers and I really don't know if this Series is going to need more than four games to be decided.
That is not the question in this Game 2 though.
The real question is whether the Clippers or Warriors will cover and I am leaning towards the visitor with the points despite their three straight blow outs to Golden State. As much as it can be hard to look past Golden State in a Series like this one, I do think they played close to a perfect Game 1 and being even slightly off with their three point shooting may make this game a little closer.
Los Angeles are set as a double digit underdog again and those teams have gone 26-14-1 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs when they are coming off a loss as a double digit underdog. The Warriors are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten when coming off a win by 10 points or more and the road team is 8-3 against the spread in the last eleven in this series.
Tuesday 16th April
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: Not for the first time this season the Orlando Magic have not only given the Toronto Raptors all they can handle, but they have beaten them as a big underdog on the road. The Magic have stolen home court advantage from Toronto and are looking to back that up with another win to move 2-0 ahead in this First Round Series before it heads to Florida for two games later this week.
It was yet more opening game drama for the Toronto Raptors in the PlayOffs who are now 2-14 in Game 1's played in their history. The fans won't have been too happy, but Toronto have managed to bounce back and fight fire with fire in previous PlayOff Series so there will be a real belief in the locker room they can at least square up the Series before the move to Florida.
The Raptors know they are going to need more out of Kyle Lowry who did not score a bucket from the field in Game 1, although the impact he made on the game was not ignored by Head Coach Nick Nurse. Fans don't look at those things as much as Coaches so Lowry needs to respond and offer some support to Kahwi Leonard who did have a strong PlayOff opening and is not interested in the history of the franchise as an excuse for the Game 1 setback.
I expect Toronto to make some adjustments, but the same can be said for Orlando who will feel very good about winning a game in which both Nikola Vucevic and former Raptor Terrence Ross struggled from the field. Both are bigger influences than what they produced in Game 1 and Vucevic is a few days further from the illness that had made his participation in doubt.
Toronto will continue loading up with the three point shot that was not falling as well as they would have liked in Game 1 and they have to respect Orlando considering they would have had the third best record in the NBA in the regular season from February. However I am expecting a reaction from the Raptors who have gone 3-1 against the spread in their last four Game 2's played after a Game 1 loss and when not facing LeBron James.
The Raptors beat Orlando by double digits in early April here and the Number 2 Seed has gone 21-13-2 against the spread when the public are favouring their Number 7 Seed opponent in the PlayOffs. I ignored this trend with the 76ers on Monday, but teams off an upset loss as a top three Seed have gone 21-7-1 against the spread in their next game if their opponent covered the spread by 11 points or more in the previous game.
Orlando have some very strong trends behind them thanks to a really strong run to end the regular season, but I am looking for a reaction from the Raptors and I think they can win this one going away.
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: The Denver Nuggets are one of a number of teams who have lost Home Court advantage in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs, but this is a team who have shown they won't let one or two losses get them down. They return home for Game 2 and will be looking to remind the San Antonio Spurs why they finished with the Number 2 Seed and the Nuggets should be backed by a raucous home crowd.
It was a wire to wire win for the San Antonio Spurs, but they had to ride out a storm at the end of the game which could have very easily gone the other way. They are expecting a real reaction from the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio are going to be challenged for back to back road wins considering how erratically they played on the road all season.
For now the players know they have a chance to really put their stamp on this First Round Series by moving two games ahead and knowing three of the remaining five games would be played on their home court where the Spurs have been very strong. That should keep them relaxed and focused with all of the pressure on the home team and the veterans of San Antonio with their deep PlayOff experience should be able to produce another big game.
Jamal Murray had a tough debut in the PlayOffs, but the Nuggets are very much behind their young star and I think he will have a bounce back performance in Game 2. You have to believe the entire Nuggets team will shoot much more efficiently from the field, especially from the three point distance, and a strong home record against the San Antonio Spurs before Game 1 will not have been erased from the memories.
I do think San Antonio have scope for improvement too, but I am going with the same selection I had in Game 1 and that is backing the Denver Nuggets to win and cover the spread.
Like the Toronto Raptors, the Denver Nuggets are being opposed by the public and the Number 2 Seed is 21-13-2 against the spread against the Number 7 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs. Also like the Raptors, Denver are off an upset loss and are home for the next game where teams have improved to 30-16-1 against the spread when they are one of the top three Seeds off that upset.
The Spurs are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven off a straight up win and I am going to lay the points in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 2 Pick: A blistering start to Game 1 saw the Portland Trail Blazers build a big lead by the end of the First Quarter. They were able to hang on for their first PlayOff win in eleven attempts and the memories of being swept out of 2018 PlayOffs in the First Round by the New Orleans Pelicans should be behind them.
The start to Game 1 saw Portland drain three pointer after three pointer, but the fightback made by the Thunder continues to demonstrate why the team who swept the regular season series between the two teams is such a hard matchup for the Trail Blazers. Huge efforts from Damian Lillard and especially Enes Kanter helped Portland come away with the win, but getting a repeat from both is going to be critical.
I can't imagine Oklahoma City are going to give Lillard the same type of room they did in Game 1 when a huge three pointer with under three minutes to play in a one point game proved the big play to win the game for the home team. Russell Westbrook almost dared Lillard to launch from way outside the three point arc, but the ball going down should mean one of the adjustments is to get closer to the star Point Guard.
Oklahoma City also have to hope Paul George can get a little healthier, although it is a long shot when you think of where he was in the days leading up to the PlayOffs. It is arguable that George is a bigger factor than Westbrook for the Thunder if they are going to upset the higher Seed and Game 2 will tell us plenty about what kind of energy he is going to have in the tank.
Paul George himself has announced he is ready to go, but the real test will come during the game and the Thunder will need to him so they can turn the tables on the three point shooting from Game 1. Where Portland nailed plenty, Oklahoma City struggled and in a five point game it doesn't take a genius to suggest a slight adjustment there will swing the game the other way.
The Trail Blazers are not sitting down and admiring their own performance in Game 1 and will be looking to make some adjustments too, but I am still of the belief that the Thunder are the better team. That is especially the case if George is good to go, and they can win their first PlayOff road game in three years.
The layers feel this is going to be the closest of the three NBA PlayOff games scheduled for Tuesday and I feel the same. However I will take the points with the road team who I feel have more scope for improvement from Game 1 to Game 2.
Wednesday 17th April
Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: Game 1 of this NBA PlayOffs First Round Series was pretty much one of the more ugly ones we have seen in the post-season so far. Neither the Boston Celtics or the Indiana Pacers shot the ball anywhere near the level they can produce, but the home team won't be overly concerned after locking down Defensively in the second half and moving into a 1-0 lead.
The Boston Celtics will still be looking to make some adjustments to get their shooters a little more open in this one as they look to put a fourth consecutive win over the Pacers in the books for April 2019. Two of those wins in the regular season ensured a Home Court First Round Series between these two teams, but Game 1 was the first time both struggled from the field as much as they did.
More adjustments obviously have to be made by the Indiana Pacers who will believe they can be more efficient from the field than they were in Game 1. The absence of Victor Oladipo does mean Indiana don't have the consistent scorer you would like to turn to in the PlayOffs, but they are not using that as an excuse and have to hope Darren Collison is a little healthier having struggled in Game 1.
There will also be the belief that the Celtics can't produce the same type of Defensive effort as they did in Game 1 especially with Marcus Smart out of the line up.
The layers have made a significant adjustment of their own as they have reduced the total point line by 6.5 points from Game 1 to Game 2. I think that may be too much of an adjustment based on a single game sample and three of their four games in the regular season saw the 'over' come into play.
Indiana have bounced back from sub-par Offensive efforts this season with the three times they have been held to under 80 points being followed by 100 plus points being scored. The 'over' is also 14-3 in the last seventeen when Indiana have scored less than 75 points and I think both teams will be a lot better Offensively in Game 2 which can see this total line surpassed.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: We have seen a couple of huge blow outs in the NBA PlayOffs over the first few days of the post-season, but the biggest was the one handed out by the Milwaukee Bucks to the Detroit Pistons. For the third time this season Milwaukee have beaten Detroit by 20 plus points at home and they are being asked to cover the biggest spread of the Game 2's being played in the First Round Series.
The absence of Blake Griffin is a huge one for the Pistons, although I am not sure he is going to be missing the entire Series as some reported prior to the start of the PlayOffs. Griffin himself is pushing for a return in Game 2, but I think he is going to be held out for a few more days at the least and that means there is a pressure on the rest of the Detroit roster to step up their game.
Game 1 was a terrible performance all around from the Pistons and it is hard to see much changing for them considering how the regular season panned out between these teams. However I am not sure the Milwaukee Bucks are going to be as intense as they were and that may give Detroit an opportunity to cover with the huge amount of points being given to them.
The Pistons are going to have to make some serious adjustments to be more competitive as the Milwaukee Bucks seemed to be able to do whatever they wanted to from the field. A heavy dose of three pointers being hit made it impossible for Detroit to keep up with the Bucks who have been very strong covering the spread when set as a huge favourite of 14 points or higher.
In reality it is very difficult seeing anything but another Milwaukee win. This is a team with a lot of reasons to continue to make a statement after finishing with the best regular season record and Milwaukee work hard on the court which gives them every chance of covering a spread that is even as big as this one.
Winning is one thing, but I also think the Pistons should now be settled into the PlayOffs having battled hard to finish with the Number 8 Seed after needing to win their final two regular season games. That could have been another factor in the manner of their defeat in Game 1 and I would expect Detroit to be a lot better all around even if they are unlikely to be good enough to extend this Series.
Teams that have lost as double digit underdogs and set as a double digit underdog again have gone 27-14-1 against the spread in the NBA PlayOffs First Round. That situation improved when the Los Angeles Clippers upset the Golden State Warriors earlier this week in Game 2 too, and I will look for Detroit to make this a much more competitive game with the points behind them.
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Game 2 Pick: A blowout defeat in Game 1 will have hurt the Utah Jazz and you have to think they are going to need to be a lot more competitive in Game 2 to avoid having memories of the way they were beaten by the Houston Rockets in the PlayOffs twelve months ago. There are some real adjustments Utah need to make on both sides of the court if they are going to make this Game 2 a lot closer than the last one was, but they have the confidence to do that.
Failing to dominate the boards and a 39% shooting percentage from the field put Utah in a very difficult position, but the players are reminding everyone that they are only 1-0 down in the Series regardless of the margin of defeat. Last year the Jazz lost Game 1 in Houston and came back and beat them in Game 2 on their way to a five game defeat in the Western Conference Semi Finals so they have shown they can pick themselves up from setbacks.
That Series has also been on the minds of the Houston players who remember what happened after a Game 1 win last season. James Harden will be looking to find a little more room and the role players are going to have to keep their performances at a high level to help the Rockets move into a commanding 2-0 lead in the Series.
The Rockets will be looking to lock down Defensively against the Utah Jazz again and their improvement on that side of the court makes Houston a real threat to reach the NBA Finals. As much as they have been stronger on the Defensive side of the court, I do think Utah can expect to get more out of their starters who underachieved in Game 1 and I think that is going to factor in this Game 2 and produce the first 'over' between these teams in Houston.
In their Western Conference Semi Final Series last season Game 2 did end up sailing 'over' the line after an 'under' in Game 1 and I think that could be the outcome again.
Utah's ability to bounce back from big defeats has helped the 'over' which has gone 8-3 in their last eleven games following a double digit loss. I think Houston will continue to get their points, but I am also expecting a lot more from the Jazz and I will look for these teams to combine for more than the total points line.
Wednesday 18th April
The First Round Series are all shifting from the venue for the first two games as the top Seeds get set for two games on the road.
Half of those Series have seen the top Seeds win both home games while the other half are at 1-1. Not many are going to be tipping up too many of the lower Seeds to get through to the Conference Semi Finals from here, but I think or two have real life in them. All of those lower Seeds will be looking to win two games at home in the next few days over the Easter Weekend to keep their dreams alive, but there is going to be a lot of work to do to manage that.
I would expect at least one, and possibly two, of the First Round Series to be concluded without the need for a Game 5 but games are played on the court and I will be watching with some interest in what has been a mixed PlayOffs for the First Round selections made.
The favourites have been dominating since the first day of the PlayOffs and that is something that the layers will begin to make adjustments for. Hopefully I will be able to spot the value plays through to Easter Monday and start putting a consistent positive run together.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The most chippy of the First Round NBA PlayOff Series has to be the one between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Brooklyn Nets and I think there is going to be a raucous atmosphere at the Barclays Center on Thursday evening.
One of the controversial moments in Game 2 had to be the Joel Embiid elbow on Jarrett Allen which saw Embiid avoid an ejection from the game. Some have criticised the referees for missing the call, while the Nets have been upset by the cameras catching Embiid and Ben Simmons laughing about the incident in the post-game conference.
There have been a few comments from the Nets about the whole issue, but they are also concentrating on returning home for two games having stolen Home Court advantage in Game 1. The Nets even led at half time in Game 2 before Simmons turned on the style and the 76ers had a huge third quarter which changed the game in their favour.
Both regular games between these teams at the Barclays Center were very close affairs and I have every reason to believe this one is going to be the same. The Nets will make the adjustments to get themselves a little more open from the three point line and I do think they match up well with the 76ers despite the way they were blown away in the second half of Game 2.
I have backed the Nets in both games as the underdog and I think they can be backed as the home underdog in Game 3 too. The 76ers still don't have a fully healthy Joel Embiid which does weaken the Number 3 Seed, while they are going to need Ben Simmons to perform at a very high level throughout the Series and I am not sure he can match the Game 2 performance.
Brooklyn have shown they can bounce back from defeats like the one they suffered in Game 2 and they have gone 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve games off a double digit loss. The Nets have also enjoyed a 16-5 record against the spread in their last twenty-one games when playing with two days rest between games having played Game 2 on Monday.
A lot of people are likely going to assume that the Philadelphia 76ers are completely back on track, but I think they are going to need another big performance from inconsistent Simmons to win Game 3. The close games with Brooklyn show these teams match up well and the 76ers are 2-11 against the spread when favoured by less than 4 points this season.
The 76ers are also 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a win and they are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven on the road. With the Nets returning home in what should be a fantastic atmosphere, I am suggesting taking the points with Brooklyn in this one as I have in the first two games of this Series.
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: It looked like the Denver Nuggets were going to be heading to Texas in a big hole as they trailed the San Antonio Spurs in the fourth quarter of Game 2. Jamal Murray came alive for the Number 2 Seed in that quarter after struggling throughout the first seven quarters of the Series and he was a huge influence in the Nuggets rallying and winning and covering.
The Number 2 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have had considerable success historically, but I am not sure the Nuggets are as a strong a 2 Seed as the others that have had this spot previously. There are some really good trends that are favouring the Denver Nuggets, but the San Antonio Spurs have been a different prospect at home all season and the veterans will know they had the better of the Denver Nuggets through the first two games of this Series and should be 2-0 ahead.
Being at 1-1 is a blow, but DeMar DeRozan was correct in saying that the Spurs are still in a very strong position and holding onto Home Court through the remainder of the First Round Series will move them onto the Western Conference Semi Finals.
San Antonio have won the battle on the boards in each of the first two games and it was only some poor Defensive play and losing their way from the field that cost them Game 2. I still think more adjustments need to be made by the Denver Nuggets if they are going to find the consistency they want to beat a team who have tended to dominate the head to head between the teams.
The Spurs won both regular season games between these teams at home and it was only another poor fourth quarter that gave the Denver the chance of winning the last of those. Gregg Popovich will be urging his players to perform for the full 48 minutes and make sure San Antonio maintain their advantage in the Series and I do think they are the superior team.
Denver have failed to cover in five of their last seven visits to San Antonio and the Spurs are 16-7 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season. The favourite has improved to 11-5 against the spread in this Series and the Nuggets are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record at home.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 3 Pick: The DeMarcus Cousins injury in the first half of Game 2 has ruled him out of the entire post-season for the Golden State Warriors, but that was not the reason the defending Champions blew Game 2 of this First Round Series. The Los Angeles Clippers completed the biggest comeback in PlayOff history by recovering from a 31 point deficit in the second half to not only cover as a double digit underdog, but actually square up this First Round Series.
Home Court has been stolen by the Clippers, but they are going to need plenty more magic if they are going to upset the Warriors. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell were huge off the bench as the Clippers rallied, but they are going to need to do plenty more of the same if Golden State are to be beaten.
There is no doubting how irritated Golden State were in losing the game in the manner they did and I expect them to come out focused and ready to show why they are the team to beat in most people's eyes. The Warriors can't have such a sloppy half again as they did in Game 2 and I think they showed in the first two games they have a lot of advantages over the Clippers who will be relying on the bench to produce again.
The injury to Cousins is a blow for the Warriors, but they were successful without him last season and I think Golden State are going to produce a big performance in this Game 3. Prior to the defeat in Game 2, the Warriors had beaten the Los Angeles Clippers by 18, 27 and 17 points in three consecutive games and I think they can keep control of the boards and also double down their focus to make sure they can steal back Home Court advantage.
Golden State are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in Los Angeles against the Clippers. They are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games following a loss. I expect them to be well rested and focused to redeem themselves after the way Game 2 ended and the Clippers did not end the season in very good form when playing the better teams in the NBA.
I am expecting a big reaction from the defending Champions.
Friday 19th April
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Game 3 Pick: After losing yet another Game 1 in a PlayOff Series, the Toronto Raptors have bounced back with a dominant win in Game 2 to head to Florida at 1-1 with the Orlando Magic. That has been the case in recent PlayOff Series for the Raptors, but they will want to break the trend of losing Game 3 having done that in their last four PlayOff Series including in the First Round in each of the last two seasons.
The blowout in Game 2 might suggest this is going to be the time when Toronto take full control of the Series, but the Orlando Magic are one of the hottest teams coming into the PlayOffs. There has to be a boost from the first PlayOff game at home since 2012 and the Magic have won their last nine games at home in the regular season.
There is going to be a confidence they can perform at home and Orlando have covered in both games played against the Raptors here in the regular season. They won one of those games outright so the Magic are going to be encouraged as they look to take a grip on this First Round Series.
Nikola Vucevic is going to be needed if the Magic are going to give the Raptors all they can handle in this Series and he has yet to really produce in the first two games played north of the border. He has made a point of studying the tapes and figuring out how he can make a bigger impact in Game 3 and that is going to be a key adjustment in this one.
I am expecting a response from the Magic who are 5-2-1 against the spread in the last eight in their head to heads with Toronto. One concern has to be the 14-1 run against the spread that favourites are on in the NBA PlayOffs and Toronto are a team who have some very strong trends behind them, but this feels like a few too many points to be handing a team who have been in fine form at home.
Orlando are 10-7-1 against the spread as a home underdog this season and the Magic are 12-7 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. The Magic have played well enough to think they can keep this one competitive and I will look for this underdog to snap the negative run those teams have been on in the NBA PlayOffs since the opening Saturday of the post-season.
My remaining two Picks from Good Friday can be seen in the MY PICKS section below.
Saturday 20th April
It is Easter Weekend so there needs to be some time spent with family as well as making sure I am putting up a few of my NBA Picks as well as from the Boxing which is taking place. It means on Saturday I will have two fuller posts about the selections being made from the Game 3's and Game 4's being played and two that I will add to the 'MY PICKS' section below.
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 4 Pick: The San Antonio Spurs moved 2-1 up in this First Round Series with a home victory on Thursday and with a little more focus they could easily have been on the brink of making the Western Conference Semi Finals. Only a blown fourth quarter in Game 2 is preventing the Spurs having the chance to sweep this Series, but they look the best placed of the lower Seeds that are going to upset their opponents in the First Round.
Focus is the key for the Spurs and they know this Series can quickly turn on its head if they were to drop Game 4 and then be involved in what is essentially a best of three Series with two of those games being played on the road. There have been times when the Spurs have failed to complete a full 48 minutes and allowed opponents to steal wins they shouldn't have earned and that is a concern for them, but three wins out of three at home against the Denver Nuggets in the 2018/19 season will give them plenty of belief.
More adjustments have to be made by the Denver Nuggets who achieved the Number 2 Seed but had doubters about their abilities throughout the season. They pushed the Golden State Warriors all the way in the regular season for the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference, so you have to respect the Nuggets, but this is a team who are struggling without the experience of much PlayOff Basketball in recent years and they are going to need San Antonio to help them as much as anything they do themselves to get back into this Series.
There are some decent talents on the Denver roster, but they have yet to really put together the kind of chemistry they had in the regular season. The Nuggets have also struggled on the road all season and now face one of the toughest home teams in the NBA and one who made into the PlayOffs very much because of the huge amount of wins they produced in front of their own fans.
Gregg Popovich has plenty of experience to make sure he can keep his players grounded and focused for this game and I think that will help them ignore the noise about being favourites and moving to the hill at 3-1 in the Series. It can be hard to back a team who are being pounded by the public and the zig-zag theory has worked in this PlayOff Series so far, while the Number 2 Seed historically has been in a very strong spot to be backed when facing the Number 7 Seed on the road as also as an underdog.
However I can't ignore how well the Spurs have played as a small favourite as they improved to 17-7 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season. They also improved to 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at home against the Denver Nuggets and the visitors are now 2-6 against the spread in their last eight road games at a team who have a winning record at home.
Sometimes the spread can be too good to be true, and that is a concern when the public money hasn't shifted the number, but the Spurs look the better team. It might be even a little closer than Game 3, but I think the San Antonio Spurs will cover and move to the brink of the Western Conference Semi Finals.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Game 3 Pick: This always felt like a Series that would be dominated by the Milwaukee Bucks and they have put up two strong victories over the Detroit Pistons to move into a commanding position.
Now the First Round Series is headed back to Detroit who have to be hoping a change of scenery will help them find a way to get back into this one. The absence of Blake Griffin has really not helped the chances of earning an upset, although his presence on the bench has actually resulted in a Technical being given against him in both games played in the Series.
That does show there is a real passion from the Pistons to try and challenge the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They were much better in Game 2 compared with the complete blowout in Game 1, but once again it was a defeat by 20 plus points and I really don't know if there is a lot that the Pistons can do about things to change them around.
Their biggest asset may be complacency on the part of the Milwaukee Bucks, but that is looking a long shot with this group of players all working hard to write their names down in NBA history. The two games played in Detroit were closer in the regular season, although both were won by the Bucks and one of those came by a double digit margin so all in all it looks a very tall task for the Number 8 Seed to get back into this Series.
A Number 1 Seed in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs playing a Number 8 Seed with a sub 0.500 record have improved to 38-25-2 against the spread. A Number 1 Seed who have won and covered in back to back games are also 24-11 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs and those are two trends favouring the Bucks in this one.
Those teams are also 15-3 against the spread when the Number 1 Seed has covered the last spread by four or more points which is the case for the Bucks and I am leaning heavily towards the road team. Detroit have to be respected with their 11-3 record against the spread in their last fourteen home games, but Milwaukee are riding some incredible trends and the road team can move to the brink of the First Round sweep.
Picks from Philadelphia @ Brooklyn and Houston @ Utah can be seen in the MY PICKS section.
Sunday 21st April
It has not been a great Easter Sunday after the Manchester United result earlier in the day and I am going to add the NBA PlayOff selections for this day in the 'MY PICKS' section below as the majority of the First Round Series complete their Game 4s.
Monday 22nd April
The remaining First Round PlayOff Games are going to be covered in a new thread which I will post on Tuesday, but the last of the Game 4s is played on Easter Monday and those are going to be covered below. A poor Sunday knocked me back a little bit, but I am going to conclude the first half of the First Round with a winning record regardless of what happens on Monday, but I would very much like to have two more winners to add to a solid start to the PlayOffs.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons Game 4 Pick: Blake Griffin was back to give the Detroit Pistons a boost in this First Round PlayOff Series, but it was more of the same as they were beaten for the seventh time this season by the Number 1 Seeded Milwaukee Bucks. Once again it was a big loss for the Pistons who almost backed their way into the PlayOffs and who have struggled to match a Milwaukee team that are set for a huge Eastern Conference Semi Final Series with the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics have already swept through their First Round Series with the Indiana Pacers on Sunday and now will be resting and hoping the Pistons can at least extend this First Round Series by one or even two more games. That does look like being a long shot with Milwaukee dominating in all aspects of the first three games and I am not sure how Detroit can adjust to make this Game 4 any more competitive than the first three games have been.
Like I mentioned in Game 3, Detroit are desperately searching for the adjustments to make this a competitive Series, but they look short in most areas. Even the boost that would have come with seeing Griffin suited up was not enough for Detroit whose strengths are bettered by what the Bucks bring to the table.
The layers have made the biggest adjustment so far by inflating this point spread between Game 3 and Game 4. The Milwaukee Bucks have won by at least 16 points in each of the three games in this First Round Series, while the closest the Pistons have got to the Bucks in their last six games is a 10 point defeat.
Milwaukee have improved to 6-0-1 against the spread in the last seven between these Divisional rivals and they are also 15-7 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season. The favourite in this series between these two teams is now 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven games and I do think the Milwaukee Bucks will be looking to get the broomsticks out and make sure they are rested physically and mentally before the big Semi Final Series with the Boston Celtics.
Teams who have lost three in a row in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs are 87-103-1 against the spread historically in this Round of the post-season. Those teams have been a bit more successful at home, but the Detroit Pistons will do well to get this back to Milwaukee and I do think the Bucks can produce one more big game to cover what is a large spread for any road team to be dealing with.
The Detroit Pistons have not covered in any of their last six games facing a team with a winning record, while they are 1-5 against the spread when coming off a double digit loss at home. Milwaukee have dominated Divisional rivals by improving to 16-4-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one against those teams in their Division and I think they can cover the number here.
Houston Texans @ Utah Jazz Game 4 Pick: Last season the Houston Rockets crushed the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference Semi Finals and they are on the brink of doing the same in the NBA PlayOffs First Round this time around. Game 3 was a tighter contest than the first two games in this Series have been, but Utah came up short again and the Houston Rockets will be looking to sweep their way through to what many expect will be a Series with the defending Champions Golden State Warriors.
Being up 3-0 and the chance to get the broomsticks out will motivate the Houston Rockets and all of the money seems to be going on the Rockets. The public are convinced the superior team is going to do enough to not only win this game, but also come through as a favourite as the layers have switched the favourite from Game 3 to Game 4.
In reality the Utah Jazz could not have played much better than they did in Game 3 and they still came up short with the Houston Rockets edging them out in a 3 point road win. My concern for the Jazz is the players will have dropped their heads completely and the trend I mentioned in the Milwaukee-Detroit game of teams on a three game losing run in the First Round of the PlayOffs could come to the fore in favour of the road Rockets again.
However I did mention that teams playing at home have shown a little more fight and that is where the Utah Jazz will be for Game 4. They are also coming off a home loss as the favourite and will be hosting Game 4 which has been a good spot for teams off upset losses in the past. Those teams are 57-35-4 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs and I think the Utah Jazz can do their best to try and force a Game 5 at the least.
Most of the trends in the head to head are favouring Houston, but Utah will be motivated to give their fans something to smile about. They are 19-7-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven following a loss and I will look to take the points here with the home team.
MY PICKS: 13/04 Brooklyn Nets + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
13/04 Orlando Magic + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
13/04 Golden State Warriors - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
13/04 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
14/04 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
14/04 Oklahoma City Thunder + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
14/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
14/04 Utah Jazz + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
15/04 Brooklyn Nets + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/04 Los Angeles Clippers + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
16/04 Toronto Raptors - 10 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
16/04 Denver Nuggets - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
16/04 Oklahoma City Thunder + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/04 Boston Celtics-Indiana Pacers Over 204.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/04 Detroit Pistons + 15 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/04 Houston Rockets-Utah Jazz Over 214 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Brooklyn Nets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/04 San Antonio Spurs - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/04 Orlando Magic + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Boston Celtics + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/04 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Houston Rockets + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Boston Celtics - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Golden State Warriors - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/04 Orlando Magic + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Utah Jazz + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
NBA First Round Update: 20-12, + 6.29 Units (32 Units Staked, + 19.66% Yield)
14/04 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
14/04 Oklahoma City Thunder + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
14/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
14/04 Utah Jazz + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
15/04 Brooklyn Nets + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
15/04 Los Angeles Clippers + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
16/04 Toronto Raptors - 10 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
16/04 Denver Nuggets - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
16/04 Oklahoma City Thunder + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/04 Boston Celtics-Indiana Pacers Over 204.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/04 Detroit Pistons + 15 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/04 Houston Rockets-Utah Jazz Over 214 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Brooklyn Nets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/04 San Antonio Spurs - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/04 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
19/04 Orlando Magic + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Boston Celtics + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/04 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/04 Houston Rockets + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Boston Celtics - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Golden State Warriors - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/04 Orlando Magic + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/04 Utah Jazz + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
NBA First Round Update: 20-12, + 6.29 Units (32 Units Staked, + 19.66% Yield)
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