The Quarter Final line up has been set at Monte Carlo and I am hoping for better than the mixed results and the first losing day of the week that came out of Thursday.
The matches are going to be played back to back on the main court here in Monte Carlo and you can read my selections below.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: These two met in a high quality match at the Australian Open where Novak Djokovic was able to edge out Daniil Medvedev in four sets on his way to another Grand Slam title Down Under. This is going to be the first time these players have faced each other on the clay courts and I have to give Novak Djokovic a real edge which can see him win the match and cover what is a large handicap on paper.
Novak Djokovic did not have a very good month in North America in March as he was beaten relatively early in Indian Wells and Miami. That may have knocked some of the confidence and he needed to dig deep to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber in the Second Round in Monte Carlo having lost to the veteran German on the hard courts at Indian Wells.
The serve was not working at the kind of level Djokovic would have been hoping in that Second Round match, but Novak Djokovic looked much better in his win over Taylor Fritz. He has held in 77% of his service games played, but Djokovic will find room to improve the percentage of points won behind serve and will need to do that if he is going to see off his young and improving opponent.
It has been much better for Djokovic when it comes to the return of serve having broken in half of the return games he has played in this tournament. He will be looking to use the return to put some pressure on Medvedev who had to dig deep to come through yet another deciding set against rival Stefanos Tsitsipas as he fought back from a break down in that final set to secure a win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Daniil Medvedev has been returning very well so far this week and has shown a huge improvement on his clay court numbers of the last couple of years, but this is a small sample and I am still not that convinced of his clay court pedigree just yet. He is going to be tested by Novak Djokovic who has held 90% of the service games played against Medvedev in their head to head across three matches, and Djokovic doubles down the pressure on the Russian by breaking in almost 37% of return games against him.
I think Medvedev has played very well in Monte Carlo, but his numbers on the clay courts are considerably better than what we have seen from him in the last two years. Maintaining those numbers could happen if he has begun to improve on the surface, but Novak Djokovic is the more consistent clay court player and I think he shows that on the day.
Borna Coric - 1.5 games v Fabio Fognini: My decision to back Borna Coric in each of the last couple of days has paid off, but Fabio Fognini scuppered my selection of Alexander Zverev to win in their Third Round match. My fear in opposing the Italian is that he can be someone who raises their game when getting out of the right side of the bed, but I am going to be on the other side of the court against him in this Quarter Final.
In each of the last three seasons Coric has been very comfortable in looking after his serve on the clay courts, but it has been the improvement in the return game which has made him as effective on the surface as he has become. The Croatian has been playing the big points well behind serve so far this week, but he is maintaining a strong hold number and I think that is going to put some pressure on opponents.
As I have mentioned, it is the return game that has really improved and Coric is maintaining those numbers. This week he has won almost 41% of the return points and broken in 25% of return games played, but those numbers are pretty closer to those he has produced over a twelve month period on the clay courts and it suggests he can keep this level going.
Fabio Fognini has been playing well this week considering he had lost all four previous matches played on the clay courts in 2019 before seeing off Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev. He was a strong winner in the Third Round match against Zverev, but Fognini had to dig in deep to beat Rublev and he is going to need to be at his best to see off Coric too.
When Fognini gets some momentum behind him in these tournaments he can be very difficult to stop, but I think it may be tough for him to back up the win over Zverev. There will be more expectation of him to win a match like this one and I think Coric has been playing the better clay court tennis of the two players and can show that on the day.
It could need three sets to separate the players and determine a winner, but I am going to back Borna Coric to edge through with a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 10-7, + 4.20 Units (34 Units Staked, + 12.35% Yield)
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