Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (April 18th)

It could have been a really good Wednesday if not for a couple of the late selections failing to come through as I had been looking for, but it was a winning day and that keeps the positive numbers going for the week.

There are times when you can regret those kind of days when it looks like being a really special one and doesn't turn out to be the case, but that's being greedy and I will take a winning day every day. Hopefully Thursday and the full Third Round set of matches can keep the positive progression being made.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: This Third Round match in Monte Carlo involves two of the brightest talents on the ATP Tour and both Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are entrenched in the top 20 of the World Rankings. To make things a little tastier when they face one another, there is clearly no love lost between them and that tension generally does produce a really good match.

It may be something of a surprise to some that Medvedev has a 3-0 head to head advantage over Tsitsipas, but those matches have all come on the hard courts and they have been close matches too. The hard courts are arguably a surface on which Medvedev has the edge, but I think that changes now this match is being played on the clay where Tsitsipas has had more consistent success than his opponent.

Daniil Medvedev has had a pretty miserable time on the clay in the last couple of years as he has moved up to the main ATP Tour, but you do have to wonder if things are changing for him. The Russian has dominated Joao Sousa and Radu Albot in the Monte Carlo tournament having won both matches in straight sets and not losing more than two games in a single set in that time.

However the challenge in facing Tsitsipas is another step up for him compared with Sousa and Albot and we are really going to begin to see if Medvedev has actually found his groove on the clay. In the last couple of years Medvedev has struggled behind his serve and the return has not proven to be as effective on the clay courts as much as it has been on the hard courts or the grass courts.

That has not been the case for Stefanos Tsitsipas who has very strong hold numbers on what is his favourite surface at this moment in his career. I think that is going to make a difference in this match up and the Greek player is also someone who seems much more comfortable with the way to get into return games on the red dirt.

It may take three sets to separate them, but I think this time it is Tsitsipas who will find a way to win the big games down the stretch and he can earn his first victory over Medvedev.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: 2019 has not opened as well as Dominic Thiem would have liked and he could find himself taking a significant drop down the World Rankings if he can not produce the kind of tennis we know he can on the clay courts. Winning the title in Indian Wells last month will have given Thiem a boost in confidence and the Austrian has tended to play his best tennis on the clay courts.

He was a very comfortable winner in the Second Round against Martin Klizan, but Thiem did not enjoy a very good Golden Swing in South America on this surface earlier this season. The return of serve is still an important part of his game, but Thiem's results have taken a dent on the clay courts so far in 2019 because he has not returned as well as he has in previous seasons.

Dominic Thiem has won 61% of the points behind serve in his five clay court matches in 2019 which is someway down on the 65%-66% numbers he has produced in 2015 through to 2018. It has also meant opponents have been able to break the serve at a much higher rate, but the win over Klizan may have shown a player that is returning to the kind of level we expect on the red dirt.

A match up with Dusan Lajovic looks a good one for Thiem considering he has won all five previous matches against the Serb and all of those have been played on the clay courts. Their most recent match came in Lyon last May and it was the closest of the matches that they have played against each other, but Thiem will be confident having held in 96% of service games played against this opponent compared with Lajovic who has held in 70% of his own.

In recent years the clay courts have been the favoured domain of Lajovic as well as Thiem, although like his opponent Lajovic has had a difficult time on the surface in 2019 before putting two wins on the board here in Monte Carlo. Dusan Lajovic has been serving well in Monte Carlo, but it will be a tough level to sustain against a returner like Thiem and I think the higher Ranked player is going to be able to win the match and cover this number.

I do have a respect for the service numbers Lajovic has produced on the clay courts in recent years. However those numbers have taken a significant dent whenever Lajovic has played a top 20 Ranked opponent on the clay courts and I think we could see more of the same in this Third Round match.


Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Fabio Fognini: This has been a difficult first four months on the Tour for Fabio Fognini, but you just know the enigmatic Italian is going to be 'up' for playing a top ten Ranked opponent on the clay courts. The red dirt is clearly the favoured surface for Fabio Fognini and he is very comfortable on it, although we have yet to see him really produce his best tennis on the surface in 2019.

He took in the South American Golden Swing earlier this season, but Fognini lost all three matches there and was also beaten in Marrakech in his first match at that tournament before beating Andrey Rublev in the First Round in Monte Carlo. The Italian was able to move into the Third Round thanks to a walkover, but the challenge is a difficult one for him now he is here when he has to face off with Alexander Zverev.

2019 has not exactly gone the way Zverev would have hoped so far, but he remains the leading contender of the 'Next Gen' that could win a Grand Slam title. The Masters level has been on that Zverev has enjoyed and he has long been very comfortable on the clay courts himself.

The German star had a disappointing loss to Jaume Munar in Marrakech last week, but Zverev continues to possess a solid serve coupled with an ever improving return on the clay courts. Despite the big serve, this is a weapon that can be attacked by opponents, although Zverev has been very strong on the return side of things that can quickly put opponents under pressure.

In a usual season I would think Fognini could provide the kind of serving and returning to really give Zverev some problems, but he has not looked at his best throughout 2019. The Italian also has lost both previous matches against Zverev and Fognini has held in just 55% of the service games played while only being able to break in 11% of return games. That includes a routine win for Zverev when these two players met on the clay courts at the Rome Masters and I think the higher Ranked player can be backed to cover this number.

With a serve that can sometimes be a little erratic, Zverev is not an easy player to back to cover this kind of number on the spread. However I think he will be able to earn enough breaks of serve against the Fognini serve to give himself every chance of doing that and I think Zverev should be backed to do so.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 8-4, + 6.78 Units (24 Units Staked, + 28.25% Yield)