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Friday, 12 April 2019

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (April 12-15)

The Premier League weekend is played from Friday through to Monday evening this week and at this stage of the season every fixture's importance is increased tenfold.

That is especially the case at the top and bottom of the table and this weekend we could start seeing some separation as far as the top four and the bottom three places are concerned. Sunday is also another huge day in the Premier League title race and the tensions are now raised up and down the country with ambitions looking to be fulfilled.


The Fantasy Football plays from last week should have offered another solutions to those looking to mould their squads for the final weeks of the season. In the 2019/20 season I will be making a slight change as to how I will offer out my Fantasy selections for the week, but for the remainder of this season I will continue to highlight higher priced and lower priced options that can hopefully help when it comes to putting transfers together.

Remember we have another Friday deadline this week so teams have to be set by 7pm British time.


Leicester City v Newcastle United Pick: The opening Premier League fixture of the weekend is played on a Friday night for the second week in a row as Leicester City get set to host Newcastle United in front of the television cameras.

It feels like an exciting time to be a Leicester City fan as it has become clear that Brendan Rodgers remains very keen on his teams expressing themselves and playing attacking football. The players have to be happy about that after a miserable time under Claude Puel and they have responded with 5 wins in 6 games since the Frenchman was sacked.

Leicester City have scored two or more goals in 4 straight Premier League games and it is the first time it has happened since April 2017 and the strong run the team went on after Claudio Ranieri was sacked. They have won their last 3 in a row at the King Power Stadium and Leicester City go into this one favoured to beat Newcastle United.

Rafael Benitez will look to set up his Newcastle United team to be tough to beat and I think the manager will be focusing on trying to contain their hosts and hit them on the counter attack. In recent games that has been a problem in trying to find the balance they need to cause problems for opponents and Newcastle United have really been struggling on their travels.

They have conceded twice in 3 away games in a row, which is not what you would expect from a Benitez team, and only an injury time equaliser at Bournemouth has prevented Newcastle United from losing all of those games. It is up to the manager to try and refocus his players who may feel they are safe from the drop and just reduced their intensity a touch, but this looks a tough fixture for them to get things turned around.

The confidence the Leicester City players have built up and the momentum behind them will be difficult to stop this weekend and I will back the home team to keep their run going. They have needed to score at least two goals in recent wins as Leicester City have not convinced at the back and I think Brendan Rodgers will always ask his team to search for goals so I will look for Leicester City to win a game featuring two more goals.

Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- the England international has been in fantastic goal-scoring form under Brendan Rodgers and can keep that going through another fixture.

Alternative: James Maddison- like last week, I am picking the same two players who had a big influence in the crushing win at Huddersfield Town.


Tottenham Hotspur v Huddersfield Town Pick: There is a potential distraction for Tottenham Hotspur this weekend as they are just days away from the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg against Manchester City. After winning the First Leg 1-0 at their new Stadium, Tottenham Hotspur have given themselves every chance of progressing to the Semi Final, but Mauricio Pochettino will be reminding his players that a return to the Champions League will be best earned with a top four finish.

They were knocked down to 4th in the Premier League table last weekend thanks to Chelsea's win over West Ham United, but Tottenham Hotspur still control their own destiny.

Winning their remaining six Premier League games would earn Tottenham Hotspur another Champions League season and they will be looking to win their third straight game at their new Stadium on Saturday. Losing Harry Kane to an injury is a blow, but Heung-Min Son can fill in as he did for the England international earlier this season.

Tottenham Hotspur also benefit from facing a Huddersfield Town team who have been struggling all season and suffered 5 League losses in a row. They have been second best in so many games and Huddersfield Town are going to find it very difficult to bridge the gap to this Spurs team who will be playing with confidence.

In the last two years Huddersfield Town have been back in the top flight they have lost all 3 games against Tottenham Hotspur. All of those defeats have come by two or more goal margins and Huddersfield Town have not scored in any of those fixtures.

Spurs have kept clean sheets in both games played in their new Stadium and I think they are capable of doing that again on Saturday in front of the television cameras. I would not be surprised if some changes are made to the starting eleven with the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg in mind, but Tottenham Hotspur should still have too much for Huddersfield Town.

The price for Tottenham Hotspur to win this fixture with a clean sheet is much bigger than I would have anticipated and I think that is the most likely outcome of this fixture.

Fantasy Star: Heung-Min Son- Harry Kane's injury means the South Korean may take over as the striker for Tottenham Hotspur against a vulnerable Huddersfield Town defence.

Alternative: Kieran Trippier- a potential source of assists and with every chance of adding a clean sheet too.


Brighton v Bournemouth Pick: This is a huge game for Brighton if they are going to earn their place in the Premier League for another season and it has to be one they target for the three points to ease the pressure on the upcoming fixture with Cardiff City.

Home form is going to be very important for Brighton the rest of the way if they are going to avoid relegation to the Championship and they are facing Cardiff City and Newcastle United here this month.

First up is a Bournemouth team who have lost 10 of their last 11 away Premier League games and who have conceded at least twice in each of those defeats. Brighton may not be blessed with the goal threat to take advantage of those defensive vulnerabilities, but they will feel they will get chances as long as they are able to defend properly.

Brighton are not an easy team to break down, but Bournemouth have some quality players in the final third and much will depend on how much Eddie Howe has been able to motivate a squad that has looked a little disinterested in recent games. In reality Bournemouth already look safe from the drop and injuries have caught up with the squad which makes them an almost perfect opponent for those clubs looking to get out of relegation difficulties.

The record against Bournemouth in recent years does not offer a lot of confidence for Brighton backers, but their performance against Manchester City should give the players a boost. Chris Hughton will want them to go back to basics of being hard to beat and seeing if they can take advantage of any chances that come their way and I think Brighton may be able to secure a huge three points in this one.

They did beat Bournemouth in the FA Cup back in January and last season they twice led against The Cherries in an eventual draw. This time Bournemouth may be a little more vulnerable if recent performances are anything to go by and I will look for the home team to come out on top, although suggest using the Asian Handicap to get behind them.

Fantasy Star: Shane Duffy- Brighton have a Double GameWeek and Shane Duffy is a potential source of clean sheets and a threat from set pieces.

Alternative: Glenn Murray- he has been a key source of goals and faces Bournemouth and Cardiff City defences that have struggled for clean sheets.


Burnley v Cardiff City Pick: Back to back Premier League wins out of the international break has to have influenced the prices which have Burnley down as an odds on favourite to beat Cardiff City this weekend.

It is a huge game for both clubs with a win for Burnley likely securing their Premier League spot for another season, while a win for Cardiff City will keep them in touch with the teams above them. It would also give them some momentum to take into the relegation six pointer against Brighton on Tuesday, but the pressure is on Neil Warnock's side with games running out.

A defeat, with that in mind, could be a huge blow to them especially with Brighton and Southampton both playing at home this weekend and potentially increasing the gap between themselves and Cardiff City. That is a pressure the players will have to deal with on Saturday, but the Cardiff City performances have remained full of grit if not the quality they may need to survive.

Even with the wins Burnley have had in the last couple of weeks it is hard to believe in them as an odds on shot to beat any team in the Premier League. They are a team that will be matched for work ethic by Cardiff City and Burnley are not keeping many clean sheets which should be a reason for encouragement for the visitors.

Burnley have been creating chances and scoring goals though and I think that is going to help contribute to a game featuring three or more goals shared out. Cardiff City will have to take risks and both teams have scored in 5 of the last 7 Burnley home games.

Earlier this season these two teams shared out three goals and I will look for that to be the outcome of this pivotal Premier League game.

Fantasy Star: Dwight McNeil- the youngster has continued to thrive for Burnley and could be the key to their success in this fixture.

Alternative: Victor Camarasa- playing twice this week and has scored in two of the last three for Cardiff City. Potential free kick and penalty taker for his team too.


Fulham v Everton Pick: It is very difficult to imagine any team going on the kind of losing runs both Fulham and Huddersfield Town have had in the Premier League, but both have looked a long way short of the quality needed at this level.

Scott Parker has not been able to reverse the Fulham slide as they were beaten 4-1 at Watford a little under two weeks ago to fall to a 9th defeat in a row in the Premier League. They have lost their last 4 at home and it is very hard to win games when you have conceded at least twice in 7 straight at Craven Cottage in all competitions.

Even with the poor numbers in front of me, I can't be backing Everton at such a short price to win here. While they are in good form and the more likely winners, Everton will not have it easy here and I think the layers have priced them up as near to a sure thing at only a few ticks higher than than the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea who have won at Craven Cottage in the last couple of months.

Everton have won 3 in a row though and they have not conceded in that run, although that may have more to do with good fortune than great defending. I can see a way where Fulham play their part here considering their best performances have come at home, but ultimately I can't really see past an Everton win despite my reservations about their short price.

I think Everton will likely need to match the last 7 teams who have played on this ground and score at least twice if they are going to win this fixture. 6 of those teams have gone on to win the game and backing Everton to win a game featuring two or more goals at odds against looks a much more interesting angle than backing the visitors at short odds on.

Fantasy Star: Gylfi Sigurdsson- should have scored last week and has been the key cog in the middle of the park for Everton.

Alternative: Ryan Babel- the former Liverpool man would love to get one over their Merseyside rivals. Has been the main threat for Fulham in recent weeks.


Southampton v Wolves Pick: There is still much for Wolves to play for over the last six Premier League games, but the manager is going to have to work some of his charm to extract performances from them after the manner in which they were beaten in the FA Cup Semi Final.

With eleven minutes left Wolves were in complete control of the Semi Final, but a VAR intervention in injury time allowed Watford to come back from 2-0 down and eventually win 3-2 in Extra Time.

It really will feel like an opportunity lost for Wolves who were hoping to finish 7th and potentially win the FA Cup to underline a very successful season. It can still be a success if they finish 'best of the rest' in the Premier League, but they have been inconsistent away from home and this is a tough test for them.

Southampton played well in their 1-3 loss to Liverpool last Friday and the scoreline had some gloss put on it by the late Liverpool goals. A strong performance will give the players belief they can survive in the Premier League and a win on Saturday will go a large way to securing their future in the top flight.

They will believe they can earn those three points having won 4 of 9 Premier League games here under Ralph Hasenhuttl, although Southampton remain a little unconvincing at the back. That should mean Wolves have chances to score here, although the visitors have struggled for away clean sheets.

With that in mind I am going to back both teams to score in this one- 10 of the last 11 Premier League games at St Mary's would have seen that market being a winner including 8 of 9 under the Austrian manager.

Wolves have conceded in 11 straight away Premier League games and my biggest concern is that they won't score here having failed to do that in half of their last 6 on their travels in the League. However this is a team who create chances and Southampton haven't really had much success keeping clean sheets so backing both teams to score at close to odds against quotes has to be the recommendation.

Fantasy Star: James Ward-Prowse- has scored six goals since Ralph Hasenhuttl has taken charge of Southampton and also a set piece taker.

Alternative: Raul Jimenez- if Wolves are going to bounce back from their defeat to Watford in the FA Cup Semi Final, Raul Jimenez is going to have to be key for them.


Manchester United v West Ham United Pick: Manchester United have already climbed out of bigger holes than the one they face in the Champions League Quarter Final against Barcelona, but the club cannot afford to be looking ahead to the Second Leg and take West Ham United for granted.

Ultimately the best route back into the Champions League for next season is with a top four finish in the Premier League and they have to take advantage of facing a West Ham United team who have looked like they might be thinking about their holidays already.

3 losses from the last 4 League games and all by the same 2-0 scoreline is a concern for Manuel Pellegrini, but the squad looks like one that is going to be facing another upheaval in the summer. Players will know that and the feeling is that the West Ham United squad are perhaps not playing at the intensity they need to win Premier League games.

They were better in the second half last Monday at Stamford Bridge and there is still some real quality in the final third with Marko Arnautovic, Felipe Anderson and Manuel Lanzini capable of causing problems. Both Manchester United starting fullbacks are going to be missing on Saturday and the midfield lacks bodies with the tough Barcelona fixture in the legs and I do think that is going to be an issue for the home team.

Manchester United have not been in great form either with 4 losses in their last 5 games in all competitions and they have kept 2 clean sheets in 10 games played at Old Trafford under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. One of those came against Championship Reading in the FA Cup Third Round and the defensive issues could be magnified with two of the starting back four out of this fixture.

I do think West Ham United will take advantage, but I still believe Manchester United will find a way to win a game against a team who might not be fully committed to the cause. Defensively West Ham United have really struggled away from home so it would be a huge surprise if they can keep Manchester United contained in this one, especially as both Anthony Martial and Jesse Lingard should have plenty to offer after starting as substitutes on Wednesday.

Before last season, 5 of the previous 6 games between these clubs at Old Trafford had ended with both teams scoring and I think that will be the case on Saturday. I think Manchester United will edge it, but recent results between these clubs have been mixed and even at Old Trafford Manchester United have not dominated West Ham United.

A Manchester United win in which both teams score appealed, but I will keep it simple and just recommend the latter situation in itself.

Fantasy Star: Anthony Martial- has been in good recent form for Manchester United and did not start the defeat against Barcelona.

Alternative: Manuel Lanzini- if West Ham United are going to crack their run without a goal, Manuel Lanzini can be the key playmaker to unlock a makeshift Manchester United defence.


Crystal Palace v Manchester City Pick: Chasing multiple trophies is very difficult even for the top clubs as they have to manage minutes and the managers are always under pressure to get the big decisions right.

A defeat at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the Champions League Quarter Final First Leg has put Manchester City in a precarious position, but Pep Guardiola felt his team were the stronger one on the day. An early penalty miss was the key and Sergio Aguero may not get to start this fixture with the Second Leg against Tottenham Hotspur to come, but Manchester City can't take liberties with Crystal Palace.

Wins over Huddersfield Town and Newcastle United since the last international break has moved Crystal Palace up to 12th in the Premier League table and now they have nothing to lose. With the pressure off, Crystal Palace have some talented players who can make the difference in the final third and this is going to be a real test of Manchester City's mettle as they look to move above Liverpool in the League table for a couple of hours at least.

A home loss to Crystal Palace and a goalless draw here last season (when Luka Milivojevic missed a penalty) should keep the Manchester City players respectful of the opponent they face. I also think that will help them to make sure they knuckle down and produce a battling performance and I do think they have shown powers of recovery from losses which will see them bounce back here.

It is going to be anything but easy and Manchester City have not been blowing teams away so a big win would be a surprise. Ultimately I think Manchester City will do just enough to edge to the three points against a Crystal Palace team missing James Tomkins and Mamadou Sakho at the heart of the defence.

Manchester City have been playing well defensively, although I expect that to be tested by Wilfried Zaha, Michy Batshuayi and Andros Townsend. The home team may score, but I think Manchester City will find a way to win.

The handicap is on the money and I was tempted by backing Crystal Palace with the start as I recommended with Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League Quarter Final. However my overriding feeling is that Manchester City will find a way to win and I will dutch them to win by one or two goal margins which prices up at just under an odds against return.

Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- missed an early penalty in the Champions League defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, but can bounce back for Manchester City.

Alternative: Aymeric Laporte- key figure in the heart of the Manchester City defence and will need to be at his best to repel the strong Crystal Palace attacks.


Liverpool v Chelsea Pick: It is almost five years to the day when Jose Mourinho brought his Chelsea team to Anfield and upset a Liverpool team chasing their first English League title since 1990. Now Maurizio Sarri will be trying to do the same with this fixture coming at another pivotal time of the season with Liverpool trying to edge out Manchester City in the Premier League title race.

The fixture is no less important to Chelsea who will feel a win at Anfield will go a long way to securing their place in the top four of the Premier League and a return to the Champions League. Some have suggested the Europa League is the priority, but the team selected for the First Leg of the Quarter Final on Thursday shows Sarri is still very keen on a strong Premier League finish.

A strong recent record at Anfield will encourage Chelsea who are unbeaten in 8 visits to this ground including in their last 6 in the Premier League. They came from behind to beat Liverpool in the League Cup earlier this season and Chelsea will be looking to take advantage of any nerves that may have set in around Anfield especially if Manchester City have beaten Crystal Palace earlier in the day.

You can't ignore the fact that Chelsea have not been as strong away from home as they would have liked to be, but the team is playing with confidence and have players in the final third who could cause big problems for their hosts.

In saying that I expect Liverpool to create chances against a Chelsea defence that has been far from secure on their travels. With Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino all amongst the goals I find it difficult to imagine Liverpool don't hit the back of the net in this one and 10 of the last 12 between these clubs have ended with both teams scoring.

That includes both games played this season and the last 6 at Anfield since the 0-2 win for Chelsea in April 2014 which has been seen as the moment Liverpool lost their grip on the Premier League title under Brendan Rodgers.

Before the win over Porto, Liverpool had played 5 games in a row in all competitions where both teams have scored. I think Chelsea are playing well enough to find the net at least once here against what could be a nervy host and I will recommend looking for both teams to hit the net in this one.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- can ram the taunts back down the throats of those small minded Chelsea fans caught singing negative songs about the Egyptian prior to the game in Prague on Thursday.

Alternative: Eden Hazard- if Chelsea are going to derail the Liverpool title push, Eden Hazard is going to be integral to it.


Watford v Arsenal Pick: There are a couple of factors around this Premier League game that makes it difficult to get a read on.

First is how are the Watford players going to react to their stunning comeback win over Wolves in the FA Cup Semi Final? With the Cup Final a little over a month away, Javi Gracia has to get the players back on the ground after the high of last Sunday and get them focusing on trying to finish the League campaign with strength and a potential top seven spot in the standings.

The second factor has to be the scheduling spot for Arsenal who play this League game between their Europa League Quarter Final Legs against Napoli. A 2-0 win over the Italian club at home has given Arsenal a real chance of reaching the Semi Final, but poor away form should mean Unai Emery will know that tie is far from over and so there could be some changes for this League fixture.

It is an important one for Arsenal who are trying to return to the Champions League and they are chasing a top four berth in the Premier League. However the away form in the Premier League has been far from encouraging and I do think this is a fixture that will motivate Watford.

Four of the current top six have won at Vicarage Road already, but Tottenham Hotspur were beaten and Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea were given scares. That shows this Watford team are capable of competing against the better teams in the League, although they have not been convincing defensively which has to be a worry against an Arsenal team that can be very good in the final third when at their best.

Unfortunately for The Gunners they have not really been able to produce their best consistently away from the Emirates Stadium and I think Watford can be chanced with a start on the Asian Handicap. Watford have won 4 in a row at home so should be playing with belief and they have had a few days to recover from the emotions of winning the FA Cup Semi Final as they did.

The home team can be backed with a start on the Asian Handicap and I think that is the play here.

Fantasy Star: Troy Deeney- seems to be up for playing Arsenal and has a good record against them.

Alternative: Aaron Ramsey- potentially rested with the Europa League Quarter Final Second Leg to come in Naples on Thursday. However has been in great form for Arsenal with plenty of recent goals scored.



Fantasy Football
A full round of Premier League games are going to be played from Friday through to Monday and that means plenty more options to get through than GW33. There are some big games to come and below you can see my top potential selections to bring in this weekend.

Goalkeeper 4.8 Million and Above
Hugo Lloris (Tottenham Hotspur- 5.4 Million): Was a vital part of Tottenham Hotspur's win over Manchester City on Tuesday in the Champions League after saving an early penalty. Hosting goal-shy Huddersfield Town and Tottenham Hotspur have back to back clean sheets here.

Jordan Pickford (Everton- 4.9 Million): Negative headlines did not affect Jordan Pickford in keeping a clean sheet against Arsenal last week. Tough away game at Fulham to come, but Pickford could be a cheaper option to bring in for funds elsewhere.


Goalkeeper 4.7 Million and Below
Nathan Etheridge (Cardiff City- 4.7 Million): Two games against Burnley and Brighton and the potential for at least one clean sheet.

Mat Ryan (Brighton- 4.4 Million): Two home games to be played against Bournemouth and Cardiff City during GW34.


Defender 5.1 Million and Above
Kieran Trippier (Tottenham Hotspur- 6 Million): A potential assist maker and every chance of a clean sheet this week for a player who is not being pushed in his position with Serge Aurier injured.

Ricardo Pereira (Leicester City- 5.4 Million): Can create chances with licence to get forward. A lack of clean sheets is a concern, but a home game against Newcastle United does offer a chance for one.


Defender 5 Million and Below
Kurt Zouma (Everton- 5 Million): Has made a big impact for Marco Silva and offers a goal threat.

Shane Duffy (Brighton- 4.8 Million): A popular choice this week considering Brighton play twice at the Amex Stadium and another who can be a real goal-threat from set pieces.

Jan Bednarek (Southampton- 4 Million): Wolves have not scored in two of their last four away Premier League games and Jan Bednarek is a cheap option to get into the Southampton defence.


Midfielder 7.1 Million and Above
Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City- 9.7 Million): Was surprisingly not used in the Champions League defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, but should be back for Manchester City in the League. Has been creating plenty of chances and back amongst the goals in the win over Cardiff City.

Heung-Min Son (Tottenham Hotspur- 8.7 Million): Was a huge influence when Harry Kane was injured earlier this season and Heung-Min Son has been a popular choice for GameWeek 34.

Anthony Martial (Manchester United- 7.2 Million): Didn't play against Barcelona as a starter and has been in good form in the Premier League.


Midfielder 7 Million and Below
Manuel Lanzini (West Ham United- 6.4 Million): With Manchester United's defence and midfield depleted, Manuel Lanzini could be the key figure if West Ham United are going to score at Old Trafford.

Youri Tielemans (Leicester City- 6.1 Million): Much cheaper alternative to James Maddison and Jamie Vardy and has been in good goal-scoring and assist-making form.

Victor Camarasa (Cardiff City- 4.5 Million): Has scored in two of Cardiff City's last three games and could be a key for them if they are going to upset Burnley and/or Brighton. Two games this week is a bonus.


Forward 6.4 Million and Above
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City- 11.7 Million): Missed a penalty on Tuesday and could potentially be rested for this fixture. However I expect Sergio Aguero to not only start, but bounce back from his personal disappointment.

Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United- 10.8 Million): Will he start? I think the Belgian does and has a very good recent record for Manchester United and has had a lot of success against West Ham United in his career.

Jamie Vardy (Leicester City- 9.2 Million): Another popular choice and someone I have been highlighting for the last month who has continued his hot scoring form.


Forward 6.3 Million and Below
Glenn Murray (Brighton- 6.3 Million): Is playing twice this week and Brighton are playing two weak defences which should give Murray a chance to make hay.

Ashley Barnes (Burnley- 5.7 Million): Did score an own goal last weekend, but made up for it by scoring his sixth goal in ten League games for Burnley.

MY PICKS: Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes
Tottenham Hotspur Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365
Burnley-Cardiff City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes
Southampton-Wolves Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 William Hill
Manchester United-West Ham United Both Teams to Score @ 1.72 Bet Fred
Manchester City to Win by One or Two Goals @ 1.94 Sky Bet
Liverpool-Chelsea Both Teams To Score @ 1.80 Bet365
Watford + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor

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