Tennis Picks 2019 (April 12th)

I anticipated this would be a fairly difficult week to make the Tennis Picks as I am really only focusing on a couple of the four tournaments being played.

Like in Charleston last week, I am not a big fan of the clay court tournament being played in Houston, while the options in Bogota and Lugano have not been that appealing so far. The same can be said in Marrakech where I have only made four Picks from the First Round matches and nothing since then.

Next week could be a different story with the first really big clay court event of the season beginning in Monte Carlo and some of the top names will also be back on the courts. Before then I am looking to finish this week with some positive momentum and to earn yet another winning week in 2019.


Jaume Munar - 2.5 games v Benoit Paire: This is the second time Jaume Munar and Benoit Paire are going to meet on the pro Tour and the first time saw Paire crush the Spaniard for the loss of four games in 2015. Much has changed in the last four years since these players met that year in Barcelona and the layers have recognised that by making Munar the favourite in this Quarter Final.

Jaume Munar has beaten Facundo Bagnis and Alexander Zverev to move through the Quarter Final and the win over the Number 1 Seed should mean another rise in his career best World Ranking. Both were deserved wins for the Spaniard and he has been playing the big points very well in this tournament which has helped him through the draw.

The serve has been pretty consistent for Munar on the clay courts over the last twelve months and he is someone who can create some real joy on the return. It is going to be the return of serve which is likely going to make the difference on the day in this match, although Benoit Paire is talented enough to be respected.

Both players are going to believe in the return of serve and Benoit Paire has really been enjoying plenty of success on that side of his game. The Frenchman has won four sets in a row in Marrakech since losing the first set to Aljaz Bedene, but I do think the Munar consistency on the serve is going to see him come through a tough match.

Unfortunately for Paire he is holding serve at 70% compared with Munar's 77% on the clay courts over the last twelve months. That means Paire is under pressure to make his returns very effective and while I do think he will have some chances to break serve, I think Munar will have the majority of the break points and has been playing those moments well enough to deserve an edge.

It would not be a huge surprise if a deciding set is needed, but I like Munar's chances to cover as I believe he is the right favourite and I think he is more likely to win at least one set with a couple of breaks of serve in his favour.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: Expect to see a significant move up the World Rankings in the weeks ahead for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who missed the clay court season, grass court season and some of the hard court season through injury in 2018. He is outside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but Tsonga is a decent clay court player and he has looked comfortable in Marrakech so far.

I expect Tsonga to be tested by Lorenzo Sonego who has come through the Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw and taking advantage to win two more matches to reach this Quarter Final. The Italian has not been a dominant winner, but he has been serving very well and will believe that can help him potentially upset Tsonga.

There has been some consistency with how well Sonego has been serving and he has held almost 83% of his service games played at the ATP level over the last twelve months on the clay courts. That is a strong number on this surface and Sonego has been enjoying his time in Marrakech.

The number that does stand out the most is 31%- that is the number of games in which he has broken serve and Sonego is playing above the kind of level he has produced in the last several months on the clay courts. It is going to be a test for Sonego to maintain that number on this surface considering he has broken in just under 17% of return games at the main ATP level over the last twelve months.

It is a particular test when you think of how well Tsonga serves on the clay courts throughout his career. The Frenchman has yet to be broken in Marrakech and that has allowed Tsonga to take a few risks on the return of serve.

So far this week Tsonga has broken in 23% of return games played and that is a number that is very similar to the usual levels he produces on the clay courts. He has won 35% of return points played so there is definitely room for improvement for Tsonga, but I think his serve will be strong enough to put some pressure on Sonego and see the latter produce one or two sloppy service games.

This could be the difference on the day and the reason Tsonga is able to cover in this Quarter Final and I will look for him to do so.

MY PICKS: Jaume Munar - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.58 Units (8 Units Staked, - 7.25% Yield)