Midweek Football Picks 2019 (April 9-11)

We are down to the final eight teams in both the Champions League and Europa League for the 2018/19 season and those Quarter Final ties are going to be played over the next ten days.

With UEFA going back to the formula they used a few years ago in drawing the Quarter Final ties and Semi Final ties at the same time, managers and fans can begin to plot the paths and decide which teams they believe will go on and compete in the Finals.

I wish I could say I was looking forward to doing the same, but the way things have panned out in the Champions League I really am beginning to fear the 'worse case scenario Final' is ready to come round. That is obviously Manchester City v Liverpool as the belief that two of Manchester United's biggest rivals are about to split the top trophies comes sharply into view.

Juventus, Barcelona and the other two English representatives in the Champions League Quarter Final may have something to say about that though.

Three of the four ties really do come with very strong storylines in the Champions League in this Round, but I have to suggest Liverpool are huge favourites to see off a Porto team they beat 5-0 in the Last 16 last season.

Ajax and Manchester United produced stunning away performances in the Last 16 Second Legs played last month, but both are considerable underdogs when they face Juventus and Barcelona respectively. Both also play at home this week and you have to think they can't afford to have the losses suffered in those Stadiums in the First Leg of the Last 16 ties if they are going to have a chance to progress to an unexpected Semi Final later this month.

Most will have Manchester City down as a strong favourite to beat Tottenham Hotspur too, but I think there is some intrigue attached to that tie. The current English Champions are playing a lot of football at the moment and you would think that is going to catch up with them, while Spurs are a team that can compete with the very best on their day.

Again the First Leg is of paramount importance to the underdog and if Tottenham Hotspur can take a lead to the Eithad Stadium next Wednesday then I do think they would have every chance of the upset in the tie.


In the Europa League it does look like Chelsea have been given a great chance to reach the Final and have two shots to make the Champions League having moved back into the top four. They should get the better of Slavia Prague and will be favoured to beat either Benfica or Eintracht Frankfurt, especially after the English clubs dominated two of the best Bundesliga teams in the Champions League.

Arsenal's path looks much trickier as they need to overcome Napoli and then either Valencia or Villarreal and it would not be a huge upset if they fail to reach the Semi Final. The First Leg in North London this week is vital for Arsenal if they are going to have a chance of knocking out a Napoli team that may be focusing on the Europa League with their Champions League spot virtually secure from their League form.


Below you can read my thoughts on the Champions League and Europa League First Legs to be played this week- I have covered all of the ties involving the English teams as well as the Quarter Final between Ajax and Juventus in the Champions League.


Liverpool v Porto Pick: Late goals have kept the momentum behind Liverpool as far as the Premier League title challenge is concerned, but the recent performances have come under the strain of expectation from a fanbase desperate for a first English title since 1990.

It hasn't been a real help for Liverpool, but they are battling hard and winning games breeds confidence more often than not.

On Tuesday they return to the Champions League and I think there is going to be a little more freedom about Liverpool. This is a team who have played some of their best football in the Champions League over the last eighteen months and Anfield has proved to be a very difficult environment for teams to come in and compete against them.

They had won 5 in a row in the Champions League at Anfield prior to the goalless draw with Bayern Munich, but I am not sure Porto can be as defensively sound as the German Champions were that day.

Porto lost in Rome in the last Round and had to turn things around at home, but they will be wary of Liverpool having been crushed by them in the Second Round last season. They did manage a goalless draw at Anfield, but that had a lot to do with Liverpool having a 0-5 lead from the First Leg and I think the intensity will be much greater for the home team in this one.

Jurgen Klopp is going to want a healthy lead to take to Portugal next week so Liverpool can completely focus on the big Premier League game with Chelsea this weekend. Having a big lead could also give the manager a chance to rest some key players for the League fixtures ahead and I think Porto are the ideal team for Liverpool to face in the Quarter Final as they fight on two fronts.

I have to give Porto some respect having had a 6 game unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League before losing in Rome last time out. However they have benefited from kind draws and this is a huge test for a team who have been beaten by Benfica on multiple occasions already this season.

The visitors will want to make sure there is all to play for in the Second Leg next week, but I think Liverpool are too good for them and can win by a healthy margin.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: This is an intriguing Champions League Quarter Final as Manchester City have to face another Premier League club for the second season in a row at this stage of the competition. Last season they were beaten at Anfield 3-0 in the First Leg and could not recover, but Manchester City are strong favourites to see off Tottenham Hotspur.

Kevin De Bruyne downplayed the significance of the game being held at Tottenham Hotspur's new Stadium, but I really don't know what kind of factor this will be. The atmosphere will be far more intense than it would have been if the game was played at Wembley Stadium although I do think there are other factors at play in the First Leg.

The main one is the issue of potential fatigue as Tottenham Hotspur are well rested compared with Manchester City who had the tough FA Cup Semi Final win over Brighton to get through on Saturday. At the same time Tottenham Hotspur have not played since last Wednesday so if there is a time for them to snap their losing run to the defending Premier League Champions then this feels like it.

If both Kyle Walker and Sergio Aguero can't start it makes life that much tougher for Manchester City with injuries in defensive areas beginning to pile up while Gabriel Jesus is simply not as clinical as the Argentinian he is replacing. In games out of the international break Manchester City have been more functional than blistering as they are looking to manage their way through games and I think Tottenham Hotspur are a good enough team to take advantage.

I am not sure Spurs have enough to win the game, but I think they have the pace and power to cause significant problems for Manchester City. The poor run of 3 straight losses to Manchester City is a mental obstacle to overcome, but the schedule could not have worked much better for Tottenham Hotspur and the fans should bring their best to inspire the players with the first Champions League game held in the new Stadium.

It is not easy to oppose Manchester City, but I would be surprised if they are able to put this tie to bed in the First Leg. With that in mind I will recommend backing Tottenham Hotspur with the start on the Asian Handicap that will return half the stake in the event of a Manchester City win by a single goal margin.


Ajax v Juventus Pick: Fixtures like this are what the Champions League have been all about as the four time European Champions Ajax take on two time Winners Juventus in the Quarter Final.

You can't ignore the fact that Ajax are not the force of old, but this season could be a perfect storm for them as a group of talented youngsters have come together to produce a strong campaign. This group is not likely going to be together for very long, but they are in line to win a first Dutch title since 2014 and have already reached the Champions League Quarter Final for the first time since 2003.

It has not exactly been an easy path through the competition either as Ajax negotiated three Qualifying Rounds and have come out of a Group containing Bayern Munich and Benfica. The most memorable performance came in the Last 16 though as Ajax demolished Real Madrid 1-4 in the Santiago Bernebeu to take their place in the Quarter Final, although Juventus present a whole different level of challenge.

Cristiano Ronaldo is potentially missing for the Italian Champions, which is a significant blow, and there are some injury concerns in the squad that will raise doubts about the visitors. However Juventus remain in strong form and I do think the veteran experience is going to edge out the youthful exuberance of Ajax in this Quarter Final.

Juventus have previous for that when they beat Monaco very comfortably in the Champions League Semi Final in 2017. They won both Legs against a talented young side that season and I think Juventus are going to have a bit too much for Ajax who ran into a Real Madrid team that seemed unconcerned about defending in the last Round.

Defending is a strength for Juventus who have been decent travellers in the Champions League over the last two campaigns. The defeats to Young Boys and Atletico Madrid in back to back games might not suggest that, but Juventus had won 5 in a row away from home in the Champions League prior to those results and I think they will be able to take an advantage back to Turin.

The absence of Ronaldo is a concern, but even then I think Juventus can do enough and I will back them on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in the event of a draw.


Manchester United v Barcelona Pick: It needed something special and a lot of good fortune for Manchester United to progress past Paris Saint-Germain in the Last 16 and I think they will need to ride their luck at times if they are going to reach a first Semi Final in the Champions League since the 2010/11 season.

Let's be honest for one moment- PSG bottled the Second Leg as much as Manchester United won it and it started with a ridiculous back pass to send Romelu Lukaku through on goal and then a blunder from Gianluigi Buffon for a second goal.

Even then Manchester United needed the intervention of VAR to secure an injury time penalty in the 1-3 win in Paris on a crazy evening full of emotion. I was just as giddy as anyone out there, but in the cold light of day you do realise it is going to take something outrageous for Manchester United to beat the other big guns in the competition.

Facing Barcelona in the Quarter Final is about as tough a draw as they could have received and the First Leg is crucial for Manchester United. Produce the same result as the Paris Saint-Germain Home Leg and I think you can draw the curtain on the competition, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may be able to take more risks knowing he has been given the permanent job as manager of the club.

Ultimately Manchester United have to take risks if they want a lead to take to the Nou Camp next week and that means trying to get after a Barcelona defence that is far from watertight. The problem is leaving yourself exposed to the supreme attacking talents the visitors will be able to put on the field even if Barcelona have not been the best travellers in the Champions League in recent years.

A rested Manchester United should cause more problems on the counter attack for Barcelona with the pace in the final third. I do think that will be the case on Wednesday, although Barcelona are rightly favoured with their dominance in midfield likely leading to plenty of chances.

Manchester United scoring 1 goal in 5 home Champions League games is a real concern, but I don't believe Barcelona can keep a clean sheet, although the same applies to the home team. A 1-1 scoreline might actually suit both teams, but I think there will be enough chances in this game at both ends of the field to see at least three goals shared out in what is a classic European tie between two giants of the sport.


Arsenal v Napoli Pick: The Europa League might have been derided in some quarters in England, but this has become a competition of real importance with the opportunity of returning to the Champions League for the winner. With that bonus now attached to the trophy, English clubs have begun to really take this competition seriously and we have seen Manchester United win it in 2017 and Arsenal reach the Semi Final in 2018.

After losing 1-0 at Everton some Arsenal fans may feel the Europa League path is the best one back into the Champions League, but they have received a very tough draw for the Quarter Final.

Napoli don't look as strong as previous seasons, but there is still plenty of quality in the side and unlike Arsenal they are almost certainly secured of a top four finish in their domestic League. That means they can perhaps put more stock into trying to win the Europa League by resting players between this Quarter Final and I am anticipating a very close tie.

Neither team travels as well as they play at home so Arsenal could be frustrated they have had to switch the venue of the First and Second Leg as Chelsea are playing in London next week. UEFA didn't want both playing at home on the same MatchDay, so Arsenal have been forced to play the Home Leg first when they clearly would have preferred it the other way around.

In the last two Rounds Arsenal have recovered First Leg deficits at the Emirates Stadium, but I think the situation is similar albeit playing at home first this time. Unai Emery will know Arsenal need a lead to take to Naples so I imagine the intensity will be the same as if they were trailing from the First Leg.

Arsenal have been very good at home, although defensively they remain vulnerable. Teams might not have taken advantage, but Napoli are capable and I would not be surprised if they take an away goal back with them.

However I think Arsenal are good enough to edge the First Leg. Napoli have lost 2 of their 5 away European ties this season including a defeat in England to Liverpool. They have also failed to win in Crvena Zvezda, while recent form has been inconsistent. At least Arsenal have remained strong at home with a 7 game winning run to extend here and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to have a lead going into next week's Second Leg.


Slavia Prague v Chelsea Pick: I don't think anyone associated with Chelsea will be making assumptions about how far they can go in the Europa League, but the fans have to be excited with the way the draw has panned out for them. It looks like Chelsea are facing the weakest of the teams remaining in the last eight of the competition, but overlooking Slavia Prague would be a mistake.

In the last few seasons Slavia Prague have really improved both domestically and in Europe and their win over Sevilla in the Last 16 is an exceptional performance.

They did need Extra Time to secure the win and Slavia Prague have won just 2 of their 6 home European ties this season. The side are unbeaten in those games, but it is clear that Slavia Prague still have a way to go to bridge the gap to the very top teams in Europe and will need to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to see off Chelsea in this Quarter Final.

It looks a long shot, especially as Chelsea have been very comfortable in the Europa League so far this season. The Blues have won 9 of 10 Europa League ties and they have begun to score a few goals in those wins having beaten Malmo 5-1 and Dynamo Kiev 8-0 on aggregate in the Knock Out Rounds.

You have to believe that Slavia Prague will know their best chance of winning this tie is by having an advantage to take to West London next weekend and that could make this a fairly open First Leg. Chelsea have shown they can score goals away from home in the Europa League too and I think the two teams could combine for three or more on the day.

I'd be surprised if Chelsea do not have enough to win this tie and move into the Semi Final, but the First Leg could be a competitive outing and I will look for goals to be shared out on the evening.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred
Tottenham Hotspur + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor
Juventus - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365
Manchester United-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook
Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor
Slavia Prague-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor