NBA PlayOffs 2019- First Round Series Game 5-7 (April 23-28)
As I mentioned last weekend at the start of the NBA PlayOffs, my plan was to split the thread for the First Round Series with the first four games of each Series covered in the first thread and the remaining games covered in this one.
I will have a separate thread for the NBA PlayOff Conference Semi Finals which could begin as soon as this upcoming weekend, especially as both the Eastern Conference line up could be in place by as soon as Tuesday 23rd April.
One of those Semi Final Series has already been put together as both the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics swept through the First Round without dropping a game. They are the only two teams do that and that Semi Final Series is one I am very much looking forward to between the team that finished with the Number 1 Seed in the East versus the team that had been favoured to earn the Number 1 Seed in the East in pre-season. Both the Bucks and Celtics look to be right on form and it would not be a massive surprise if we needed the full seven games to separate them as we did in the First Round in 2018.
A number of other teams will be looking to close out their Series in the next couple of days with Toronto, Philadelphia, Portland, Houston and Golden State all returning home with 3-1 leads and all will be favoured to complete their wins without the need for any more games.
Only one Series is guaranteed a Game 6 and that is the one between the San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets which has all the hallmarks of one that may go all the way to a seventh and final game.
You can read my early PlayOff selections here and the remaining Picks from the First Round Series can be read below.
Tuesday 23rd April
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Game 5 Pick: Game 1 of this First Round Series feels like a lifetime ago when you think of how things have panned out since the Orlando Magic stole Home Court advantage on the first day of the 2019 NBA PlayOffs. They have not been able to maintain those standards though and the Magic have now lost three in a row with a couple of those coming by wide blow outs including in Game 4.
It is very difficult to know how the Orlando Magic are going to be able to pick themselves up from the body blows they have taken as it has quickly proven to be a Series in which they are overmatched. Even Head Coach Steve Clifford has mentioned the Magic need to be perfect if they are going to win games and the struggles Offensively have made it nigh on impossible to add to the Game 1 win over the Raptors when the Number 2 Seed were caught cold.
Orlando have to find the adjustments they need Offensively to make this a competitive Series and it says a lot that they have not scored more than 93 points in a single game since Game 1. That is not the way you are going to win PlayOff Series without being an incredibly strong Defensive team, but the Magic are struggling at both ends of the court and it has become very difficult to see things changing now.
Kahwi Leonard has already shown the Raptors faithful why he was traded to push Toronto forward and his four strong Offensive showings have led the way for his team. He scored 37 points in Game 4 and Leonard is looking to pick up from where he left off and also give himself and his team-mates the chance to have a bit of a rest ahead of the Conference Semi Finals.
You have to expect positive noises from Orlando who have already surpassed expectations by reaching the PlayOffs. However they look to be in a very difficult spot and three straight losses ahead of facing the Raptors on the road is not a great place for them to be.
Teams who have lost three games in a row and now heading on the road are just 26-42 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs. The Number 2 Seed taking less money than the Number 7 Seed also have a high rate of covering the spread and Toronto have already shown they can blow out the Magic twice in the four games played between them.
The Magic are getting a double digit start which is a strong position for teams in the PlayOffs, but Toronto covered a similar spread when beating them in Game 2. A lack of rest between games has not bothered Toronto in recent games and I think they are going to come out and try and stamp their authority on Game 5 as soon as possible and I believe the Raptors pull away for a win and a cover.
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 5 Pick: There has looked to be a clear talent differential between the top teams in the Eastern Conference and those lower down the standings and so far the NBA PlayOffs have highlighted that. Both Milwaukee and Boston have swept their First Round Series, while the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers have won three in a row since dropping Game 1 and have a chance to close out their own Series in Game 5.
The 76ers are significant favourites to do that on Tuesday when they host the Brooklyn Nets who will have suffered the blow of the narrow loss in Game 4 which has left them 3-1 down in the Series. A chippy Series means the emotions are going to be tough to control especially after losing in such a manner as they did, although the Nets, like the Magic, are talking up their chances of bringing this Series home for Game 6 after already winning once on the road during the PlayOffs.
It is a big ask for a team that has had no answer for Joel Embiid, although the Philadelphia Center's availability has to be up in the air at the moment. He should be ready to go in front of the home fans knowing there will be a few days to rest if the 76ers can close the show on Tuesday and that is going to give the home team a big edge.
Brooklyn just have not found the consistency Offensively to challenge the 76ers and I think it may be more of the same in Game 5. When that has happened the Philadelphia Offensive threat is too much to handle for Brooklyn and that has led to a couple of blow out wins already in this Series and the expectation is that we will see another one here.
Like the Magic, Brooklyn are in the tough spot of being on the road after three straight losses where teams have struggled mightily in the NBA PlayOffs First Round. Those teams are 26-42 against the spread as I've mentioned in the Toronto-Orlando section, and the 76ers have covered in four of the last five against the Nets.
The 76ers have also improved to 15-8 against the spread when favoured by 7 or more points this season and they go into Game 5 in a nice groove as to how to deal with the Brooklyn Nets. I expect Brooklyn to give this a go as they want to end this season showing plenty of resolve, but the Philadelphia 76ers are the better team and I think they will be able to take control in the second half and eventually pull away for a win and a cover.
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: When the First Round PlayOff match ups were put together, the feeling was that this one may be the closest of the eight First Round Series to be played. It looks to be panning out that way with the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets the only teams to be guaranteed a Game 6 and there won't be many ruling out the chance of seeing them compete in a winner takes all Game 7 back here in Denver at the weekend.
There really hasn't been a lot between these teams so far in this First Round Series and it has come down to one or two really big moments to spark something. In both of the wins earned by the Denver Nuggets they have put together one dominant quarter in the second half to pull clear of the Spurs and earn the victory, but now we are getting into the Coaching battle to make the difference in those tight moments.
In that regard you have to give Gregg Popovich the edge considering his depth of experience compared with Michael Malone. Popovich will be demanding much more intensity from his players after the way Game 4 unfolded at home and I do think he has shown enough throughout his career to expect a reaction from the Spurs.
Denver made some good adjustments in Game 4 which proved to be vital in helping them snap a poor record on the road at the Spurs, but now once again the scenario has changed. Now the expectation is on the Nuggets who are favoured to win having been the underdog on the road in Game 4 and these little mental factors can really throw players.
The Coaching edge added to the change in mentality of the teams does make me believe the San Antonio Spurs are the right team to be behind in Game 5, even if they come up short for the outright victory. The Spurs are 4-0 against the spread when coming off a double digit loss at home and the Nuggets have gone 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen following a win.
I do think there is every chance this game is going to be cracked open at some point in the second half as they have tended to be, but I think the Spurs can use the points to stay within the spread. This should be the funnest game of the night with the amount of tension attached to it, but both teams look happy shooting the ball at the moment and I will look for Gregg Popovich to find the right words to make sure his San Antonio team are competitive until right to the end.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 5 Pick: Out of all the First Round Series, this is easily the one I have struggled with the most as I really believed the Oklahoma City Thunder were the better team. Instead the Portland Trail Blazers have moved into a 3-1 lead in the Series after winning Game 4 on the road and they are favoured to earn their spot in the Western Conference Semi Finals in Game 5.
The injury to Paul George has not been used as an excuse from the Thunder, but it has become apparent that they have not had the kind of scoring they needed to stay with the Trail Blazers. Russell Westbrook has been filling out the stats sheet, but the lack of depth with the Thunder roster has really shown up here and it looks a long road back for a team that has been eliminated in the First Round in each of the last two seasons.
You never know with Westbrook and he is someone who can come out firing off the back of an inefficient game, but the Thunder have had no answer to Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The return of the latter from injury at the beginning of the NBA PlayOffs has been huge and the pair have been the strength in the backcourt that has not been matched by Oklahoma City.
The superior three point shooting of the Trail Blazers has come to the fore throughout this First Round Series and I do wonder how the Thunder can make the adjustments they need at this stage of the Series. None of those adjustments have shown up in the PlayOffs so far and it is going to be a case of Westbrook and George willing them to a win than doing anything different than what they have so far.
As I said, Westbrook is someone who can turn things into a positive very quickly in a Series, but he will need to have changed his entire approach to do that and I am not sure it is going to happen in Game 5. With the Portland Trail Blazers continuing to shoot lights out from the three point range compared with the Thunder, they may be able to pull away and hold onto a lead again.
Portland have covered in both games played at home in this Series and improved to 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at home against the Thunder. The Trail Blazers have improved to 35-15-3 against the spread off a double digit win and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 1-4 against the spread following a double digit defeat at home.
Add in they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games and 5-16 against the spread in their last twenty-one games against the Western Conference and I am going to back the favourite to secure their place in the Semi Finals with a win and a cover.
Wednesday 24th April
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Game 5 Pick: The Utah Jazz produced a big effort in the fourth quarter of Game 4 which helped them avoid the sweep in this First Round Series against the Houston Rockets. They were very much helped by the Rockets going cold in that quarter, but it is going to take a monumental effort for the Jazz to bring this Series home later this week as they still trail 3-1 after four games.
For most of this Series the Utah Jazz have looked second best and the two blow out losses at the Houston Rockets has to be having some effect mentally. Neither Game 1 nor Game 2 were particularly close and I don't think it is really feasible to think the Houston Rockets are going to be as cold from the field as they were at the end of Game 4.
I will give Utah some credit in that they have made the adjustments after Game 2 to limit the impact James Harden is able to have on the court, but you can't completely stop someone who is leading the way as the MVP of the NBA regular season. James Harden is also going to feel much more comfortable at home and the Houston Rockets know they can't get involved in a tough Series with the Golden State Warriors likely going to be resting after most expect them to close their own First Round Series with the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday evening.
Once again this Series shifts its favourite having seen the underdog cover the spread in the last two games, but the spot may be a good one for the Houston Rockets. In Game 4 I used the trend of a team coming off an upset loss and then playing at home in the next game which has seen teams go 58-35-4 against the spread in those situations and this time the Houston Rockets can take advantage of it.
The spread is bigger in Game 5 than it has been in either of the first two games that have been played in Houston, but the two Rockets wins here have been by 32 and 20 points respectively. The Rockets are also 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games off a straight up loss and they are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games at home.
I imagine the Game 4 loss has just refocused the Houston Rockets too and I can't see them having the kind of sleepwalking quarter they did in Game 4 to allow the Jazz to force another game. It is a big spread and Houston have not covered as a favourite of 8 or 8.5 points this season, but I think they will have too much for the Utah Jazz in this one as they bounce back from an upset loss in Game 4.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: After the stunning Game 2 comeback from the Los Angeles Clippers which saw them overcome the biggest deficit in NBA PlayOff history to win a game, things have gone back to the way most expected in this First Round Series. The Golden State Warriors have won back to back road games at the Staples Center which has taken them to the hill in this Series and the Warriors are a huge favourite to make sure of their place in the Western Conference Semi Finals.
For the most part the Warriors have been head and shoulders above the Los Angeles Clippers who will improve for the experience as a number of young players have overachieved this season. Free Agency could be a big time for the Clippers with some believing they are the leading team to sign Kahwi Leonard who has long coveted a move to Los Angeles.
Adding him to a young core of players who will come on leaps and bounds from the season they have had could make the Clippers a contender to win the NBA Finals next season, especially as most are expecting this to be the last rodeo of the Golden State Warriors with their current roster.
The Warriors are ignoring all those rumours at the moment as they look for a third NBA Championship in a row and they will want to get a couple of days of rest in the legs by preventing this Series from needing a Game 6. The layers very much believe that is going to be the case with the Warriors set as a big double digit favourite to win Game 5 and it is difficult to see this going any other way.
However asking double digit favourites to cover in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs has been a lot more productive this season than it has been historically. The Warriors are 1-1 against the spread when it comes to that situation so far and my lean is that they are more likely to cover the number than not.
I can't play it though with the Clippers desperate and having every chance of a backdoor cover if the Warriors call off the dogs in the final moments of the fourth quarter. Instead I think the Golden State Warriors are trying to knuckle down Defensively and they have held the Clippers to 105 points and fewer in five of the last six games between these teams. In both games in Los Angeles the Clippers scored 105 points each time and I do think the Golden State Warriors will believe that strength on that side of their game is going to lead to a Series win.
You can never oppose the Warriors from suddenly getting incredibly hot from the three point line and scoring heavily themselves, but the total points line looks a big one. The power of Golden State means the layers take no chances with that total point line in their games, but the 'under' is 10-3 in the last thirteen in the Oracle Arena.
Things may slow down scoring wise in the second half if the Warriors have built a big lead and both teams begin giving other members of the roster extended minutes too. With the number where it is, I have to play the 'under' in this Game 5 when I expect this Series to come to a close.
Thursday 25th April
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 6 Pick: The first of two Game 6s that are going to be played in the NBA PlayOffs First Round comes on Thursday evening as the San Antonio Spurs try and stay alive against the Denver Nuggets. After going into Game 4 at home with a 2-1 lead, the Spurs have lost back to back games to the Nuggets and now will be back in front of their own fans and looking to keep this Series alive for a 'winner takes all' Game 7 back in Denver.
The manner of the Game 5 defeat has to have really stung the San Antonio Spurs as they trailed by 30 points at one stage and the eventual 18 point defeat will have given the Nuggets belief. The fact Denver have snapped a losing run on the road in San Antonio in Game 4 will only have added to the confidence of the visitors who have made the right adjustments in each of the last two games.
Not many would have picked Michael Malone to out-coach Gregg Popovich, but that has been the situation in the past couple of games and Popovich has recognised as much. It has to be said that the Spurs don't seem to have the same level of talent as the Nuggets, but one of the major factors has been the slump suffered by Derrick White at a time when Jamal Murray has come alive for the Nuggets.
For San Antonio to turn this Series and move back to Denver for Game 7 they are going to need White to perform as he had been doing prior to Game 4. The last two games have not been to the level White would have wanted from himself, but the whole team being back home has to be a boost considering how much better San Antonio have played here compared to on the road.
Denver have to keep doing what they are doing, but they might be running into a much tougher Spurs team than the one they faced in Game 5. The Spurs have been strong bouncing back from heavy road losses where they have struggled to score points and that has been particularly the case when they have played at home in their next game.
The Spurs have won three of the four games at home in that spot this season and they are facing a Denver team who have lost eight of their last eleven as the road underdog. Of course one of the exceptions in that run was a Game 4 win here, but I think the Spurs are going to be motivated at home and they can do enough to force a Game 7.
San Antonio are 12-7 against the spread favoured by less than 4 points this season and the favourite has improved to 13-6 against the spread when the Spurs and Nuggets have met. There are some poor trends for both teams to try and get the better of in this one and I think a tense Game 6 may be decided by home court advantage for the Spurs.
Friday 26th April
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 6 Pick: We have seen one of the First Round Series needing a third weekend to separate the teams involved as they head into a Game 7, but the Golden State Warriors will be desperate to avoid falling into the same situation. On the other hand the Los Angeles Clippers will be feeling very good about themselves having won at the Oracle Arena for the second time during this First Round Series, although they have lost both games played at the Staples Center.
Steve Kerr was not very happy with the way his Golden State team played in Game 5 as they looked to close the Series out and this additional game is a slight issue for them. If they win the Warriors will be going into the Western Conference Semi Final Series with the Houston Rockets on Sunday and the latter have already arrived in the Bay Area to prepare for that eventuality.
Adding a Game 7 to the docket would be a real problem for the defending Champions who have perhaps not taken the Clippers as seriously as they should have. In Game 2 the Warriors blew the biggest lead in a NBA PlayOff game when losing that one and another home loss in Game 5 may have broken some of the aura around their home advantage.
The adjustments are going to have to be made Defensively after the way the Warriors allowed Los Angeles to have their way with things from the field. So far in this Series they have bounced back from sub-par efforts and I would think that is going to be the same on Friday in this Game 6.
Los Angeles will be trying to do the same as they have over the last couple of months and that is allow their depth to challenge teams who are superior to them. In Game 6 it was the play of the bench that once again led the Clippers to the huge upset on the road and the public are behind them in Game 6 as far as the spread goes judging by the tickets taken.
However I am going with the sharps who are backing the Golden State Warriors to bounce back in a big way. Defending Champions who are beaten by 6 or more points have gone 6-0 against the spread in the next game when playing on the road in the First Round of the PlayOffs.
The Warriors are also 6-1 against the spread following a straight up loss and they have gone 4-1 against the spread in the game after allowing at least 125 points. At the same time the Clippers have gone 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games following a win, including in Game 3 of this First Round Series when they failed to cover at home, while they are also 1-4 against the spread following a game in which they have scored at least 125 points.
Golden State are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games at the Staples Center versus the Clippers and the road team has improved to 11-4 against the spread. I can't imagine the Warriors are going to make the mistake of losing intensity for the second time in a row and they will be looking to make a statement ahead of the big Series with the Houston Rockets and I will back them to cover this number.
Saturday 27th April
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: Very early on in this First Round NBA PlayOff Series it felt like we were heading to a Game 7 and that is where the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs are going into the third weekend of the post-season. The momentum has swung back and forth between the teams as the Spurs led 2-1 before the Nuggets won two in a row and then failed to close out the Series in a road defeat in Game 6.
Now the feeling would be that the momentum is with the Spurs, but I think these teams are closely matched that a slight adjustment could see Denver win for a third time in a row at home during this Series.
Teams coming off a win in Game 6 have actually gone 13-18 against the spread in the last thirty-one times we have needed a 'winner takes all' contest. The home team have also gone 30-20 against the spread and in the NBA PlayOffs First Round those hosts are 15-10 against the spread with those trends all favouring Denver.
The Nuggets were very much in Game 6 until the end of the third quarter and the early stages of the fourth quarter when the Spurs took control of the game. They did allow the Spurs to shoot 57% from the field and that was underlined by the fact that San Antonio did not turn the ball over very often, but Denver will believe home comforts will perhaps put some pressure on the Spurs and see those numbers decline.
The home team has improved to 4-1 against the spread in this First Round Series and Denver are looking to bounce back from a double digit defeat. The Nuggets are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in that spot and three wins in a row at home against San Antonio has to be boosting the confidence of a team who will feel they took the Spurs best shot and still had every chance of turning Game 6 in their favour.
I backed San Antonio in Game 6 as they usually recover from a subpar Offensive effort, but it has been much tougher backing up strong performances on that side of the court. The Spurs are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve when scoring triple digits on the board, while San Antonio are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games facing a team who have won at least 60% of their home games.
San Antonio are also 2-7 against the spread when coming off a straight up win and I do think the Nuggets have shown they can make the adjustments throughout this Series to want to back them in Game 7. Gregg Popovich is a top Coach and I have a lot of respect for what he can get out of his players, but I will back the Denver Nuggets to move through to a Western Conference Semi Final Series with the Portland Trail Blazers.
MY PICKS: 23/04 Toronto Raptors - 12 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
23/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
23/04 San Antonio Spurs + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
23/04 Portland Trail Blazers - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/04 Houston Rockets - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
24/04 Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Clippers Under 235 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/04 San Antonio Spurs - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/04 Golden State Warriors - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/04 Denver Nuggets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
First Round PlayOff Update: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)
You can read my early PlayOff selections here and the remaining Picks from the First Round Series can be read below.
Tuesday 23rd April
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Game 5 Pick: Game 1 of this First Round Series feels like a lifetime ago when you think of how things have panned out since the Orlando Magic stole Home Court advantage on the first day of the 2019 NBA PlayOffs. They have not been able to maintain those standards though and the Magic have now lost three in a row with a couple of those coming by wide blow outs including in Game 4.
It is very difficult to know how the Orlando Magic are going to be able to pick themselves up from the body blows they have taken as it has quickly proven to be a Series in which they are overmatched. Even Head Coach Steve Clifford has mentioned the Magic need to be perfect if they are going to win games and the struggles Offensively have made it nigh on impossible to add to the Game 1 win over the Raptors when the Number 2 Seed were caught cold.
Orlando have to find the adjustments they need Offensively to make this a competitive Series and it says a lot that they have not scored more than 93 points in a single game since Game 1. That is not the way you are going to win PlayOff Series without being an incredibly strong Defensive team, but the Magic are struggling at both ends of the court and it has become very difficult to see things changing now.
Kahwi Leonard has already shown the Raptors faithful why he was traded to push Toronto forward and his four strong Offensive showings have led the way for his team. He scored 37 points in Game 4 and Leonard is looking to pick up from where he left off and also give himself and his team-mates the chance to have a bit of a rest ahead of the Conference Semi Finals.
You have to expect positive noises from Orlando who have already surpassed expectations by reaching the PlayOffs. However they look to be in a very difficult spot and three straight losses ahead of facing the Raptors on the road is not a great place for them to be.
Teams who have lost three games in a row and now heading on the road are just 26-42 against the spread in the First Round of the PlayOffs. The Number 2 Seed taking less money than the Number 7 Seed also have a high rate of covering the spread and Toronto have already shown they can blow out the Magic twice in the four games played between them.
The Magic are getting a double digit start which is a strong position for teams in the PlayOffs, but Toronto covered a similar spread when beating them in Game 2. A lack of rest between games has not bothered Toronto in recent games and I think they are going to come out and try and stamp their authority on Game 5 as soon as possible and I believe the Raptors pull away for a win and a cover.
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 5 Pick: There has looked to be a clear talent differential between the top teams in the Eastern Conference and those lower down the standings and so far the NBA PlayOffs have highlighted that. Both Milwaukee and Boston have swept their First Round Series, while the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers have won three in a row since dropping Game 1 and have a chance to close out their own Series in Game 5.
The 76ers are significant favourites to do that on Tuesday when they host the Brooklyn Nets who will have suffered the blow of the narrow loss in Game 4 which has left them 3-1 down in the Series. A chippy Series means the emotions are going to be tough to control especially after losing in such a manner as they did, although the Nets, like the Magic, are talking up their chances of bringing this Series home for Game 6 after already winning once on the road during the PlayOffs.
It is a big ask for a team that has had no answer for Joel Embiid, although the Philadelphia Center's availability has to be up in the air at the moment. He should be ready to go in front of the home fans knowing there will be a few days to rest if the 76ers can close the show on Tuesday and that is going to give the home team a big edge.
Brooklyn just have not found the consistency Offensively to challenge the 76ers and I think it may be more of the same in Game 5. When that has happened the Philadelphia Offensive threat is too much to handle for Brooklyn and that has led to a couple of blow out wins already in this Series and the expectation is that we will see another one here.
Like the Magic, Brooklyn are in the tough spot of being on the road after three straight losses where teams have struggled mightily in the NBA PlayOffs First Round. Those teams are 26-42 against the spread as I've mentioned in the Toronto-Orlando section, and the 76ers have covered in four of the last five against the Nets.
The 76ers have also improved to 15-8 against the spread when favoured by 7 or more points this season and they go into Game 5 in a nice groove as to how to deal with the Brooklyn Nets. I expect Brooklyn to give this a go as they want to end this season showing plenty of resolve, but the Philadelphia 76ers are the better team and I think they will be able to take control in the second half and eventually pull away for a win and a cover.
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: When the First Round PlayOff match ups were put together, the feeling was that this one may be the closest of the eight First Round Series to be played. It looks to be panning out that way with the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets the only teams to be guaranteed a Game 6 and there won't be many ruling out the chance of seeing them compete in a winner takes all Game 7 back here in Denver at the weekend.
There really hasn't been a lot between these teams so far in this First Round Series and it has come down to one or two really big moments to spark something. In both of the wins earned by the Denver Nuggets they have put together one dominant quarter in the second half to pull clear of the Spurs and earn the victory, but now we are getting into the Coaching battle to make the difference in those tight moments.
In that regard you have to give Gregg Popovich the edge considering his depth of experience compared with Michael Malone. Popovich will be demanding much more intensity from his players after the way Game 4 unfolded at home and I do think he has shown enough throughout his career to expect a reaction from the Spurs.
Denver made some good adjustments in Game 4 which proved to be vital in helping them snap a poor record on the road at the Spurs, but now once again the scenario has changed. Now the expectation is on the Nuggets who are favoured to win having been the underdog on the road in Game 4 and these little mental factors can really throw players.
The Coaching edge added to the change in mentality of the teams does make me believe the San Antonio Spurs are the right team to be behind in Game 5, even if they come up short for the outright victory. The Spurs are 4-0 against the spread when coming off a double digit loss at home and the Nuggets have gone 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen following a win.
I do think there is every chance this game is going to be cracked open at some point in the second half as they have tended to be, but I think the Spurs can use the points to stay within the spread. This should be the funnest game of the night with the amount of tension attached to it, but both teams look happy shooting the ball at the moment and I will look for Gregg Popovich to find the right words to make sure his San Antonio team are competitive until right to the end.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 5 Pick: Out of all the First Round Series, this is easily the one I have struggled with the most as I really believed the Oklahoma City Thunder were the better team. Instead the Portland Trail Blazers have moved into a 3-1 lead in the Series after winning Game 4 on the road and they are favoured to earn their spot in the Western Conference Semi Finals in Game 5.
The injury to Paul George has not been used as an excuse from the Thunder, but it has become apparent that they have not had the kind of scoring they needed to stay with the Trail Blazers. Russell Westbrook has been filling out the stats sheet, but the lack of depth with the Thunder roster has really shown up here and it looks a long road back for a team that has been eliminated in the First Round in each of the last two seasons.
You never know with Westbrook and he is someone who can come out firing off the back of an inefficient game, but the Thunder have had no answer to Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The return of the latter from injury at the beginning of the NBA PlayOffs has been huge and the pair have been the strength in the backcourt that has not been matched by Oklahoma City.
The superior three point shooting of the Trail Blazers has come to the fore throughout this First Round Series and I do wonder how the Thunder can make the adjustments they need at this stage of the Series. None of those adjustments have shown up in the PlayOffs so far and it is going to be a case of Westbrook and George willing them to a win than doing anything different than what they have so far.
As I said, Westbrook is someone who can turn things into a positive very quickly in a Series, but he will need to have changed his entire approach to do that and I am not sure it is going to happen in Game 5. With the Portland Trail Blazers continuing to shoot lights out from the three point range compared with the Thunder, they may be able to pull away and hold onto a lead again.
Portland have covered in both games played at home in this Series and improved to 6-2 against the spread in their last eight at home against the Thunder. The Trail Blazers have improved to 35-15-3 against the spread off a double digit win and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 1-4 against the spread following a double digit defeat at home.
Add in they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games and 5-16 against the spread in their last twenty-one games against the Western Conference and I am going to back the favourite to secure their place in the Semi Finals with a win and a cover.
Wednesday 24th April
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets Game 5 Pick: The Utah Jazz produced a big effort in the fourth quarter of Game 4 which helped them avoid the sweep in this First Round Series against the Houston Rockets. They were very much helped by the Rockets going cold in that quarter, but it is going to take a monumental effort for the Jazz to bring this Series home later this week as they still trail 3-1 after four games.
For most of this Series the Utah Jazz have looked second best and the two blow out losses at the Houston Rockets has to be having some effect mentally. Neither Game 1 nor Game 2 were particularly close and I don't think it is really feasible to think the Houston Rockets are going to be as cold from the field as they were at the end of Game 4.
I will give Utah some credit in that they have made the adjustments after Game 2 to limit the impact James Harden is able to have on the court, but you can't completely stop someone who is leading the way as the MVP of the NBA regular season. James Harden is also going to feel much more comfortable at home and the Houston Rockets know they can't get involved in a tough Series with the Golden State Warriors likely going to be resting after most expect them to close their own First Round Series with the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday evening.
Once again this Series shifts its favourite having seen the underdog cover the spread in the last two games, but the spot may be a good one for the Houston Rockets. In Game 4 I used the trend of a team coming off an upset loss and then playing at home in the next game which has seen teams go 58-35-4 against the spread in those situations and this time the Houston Rockets can take advantage of it.
The spread is bigger in Game 5 than it has been in either of the first two games that have been played in Houston, but the two Rockets wins here have been by 32 and 20 points respectively. The Rockets are also 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games off a straight up loss and they are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games at home.
I imagine the Game 4 loss has just refocused the Houston Rockets too and I can't see them having the kind of sleepwalking quarter they did in Game 4 to allow the Jazz to force another game. It is a big spread and Houston have not covered as a favourite of 8 or 8.5 points this season, but I think they will have too much for the Utah Jazz in this one as they bounce back from an upset loss in Game 4.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: After the stunning Game 2 comeback from the Los Angeles Clippers which saw them overcome the biggest deficit in NBA PlayOff history to win a game, things have gone back to the way most expected in this First Round Series. The Golden State Warriors have won back to back road games at the Staples Center which has taken them to the hill in this Series and the Warriors are a huge favourite to make sure of their place in the Western Conference Semi Finals.
For the most part the Warriors have been head and shoulders above the Los Angeles Clippers who will improve for the experience as a number of young players have overachieved this season. Free Agency could be a big time for the Clippers with some believing they are the leading team to sign Kahwi Leonard who has long coveted a move to Los Angeles.
Adding him to a young core of players who will come on leaps and bounds from the season they have had could make the Clippers a contender to win the NBA Finals next season, especially as most are expecting this to be the last rodeo of the Golden State Warriors with their current roster.
The Warriors are ignoring all those rumours at the moment as they look for a third NBA Championship in a row and they will want to get a couple of days of rest in the legs by preventing this Series from needing a Game 6. The layers very much believe that is going to be the case with the Warriors set as a big double digit favourite to win Game 5 and it is difficult to see this going any other way.
However asking double digit favourites to cover in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs has been a lot more productive this season than it has been historically. The Warriors are 1-1 against the spread when it comes to that situation so far and my lean is that they are more likely to cover the number than not.
I can't play it though with the Clippers desperate and having every chance of a backdoor cover if the Warriors call off the dogs in the final moments of the fourth quarter. Instead I think the Golden State Warriors are trying to knuckle down Defensively and they have held the Clippers to 105 points and fewer in five of the last six games between these teams. In both games in Los Angeles the Clippers scored 105 points each time and I do think the Golden State Warriors will believe that strength on that side of their game is going to lead to a Series win.
You can never oppose the Warriors from suddenly getting incredibly hot from the three point line and scoring heavily themselves, but the total points line looks a big one. The power of Golden State means the layers take no chances with that total point line in their games, but the 'under' is 10-3 in the last thirteen in the Oracle Arena.
Things may slow down scoring wise in the second half if the Warriors have built a big lead and both teams begin giving other members of the roster extended minutes too. With the number where it is, I have to play the 'under' in this Game 5 when I expect this Series to come to a close.
Thursday 25th April
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Game 6 Pick: The first of two Game 6s that are going to be played in the NBA PlayOffs First Round comes on Thursday evening as the San Antonio Spurs try and stay alive against the Denver Nuggets. After going into Game 4 at home with a 2-1 lead, the Spurs have lost back to back games to the Nuggets and now will be back in front of their own fans and looking to keep this Series alive for a 'winner takes all' Game 7 back in Denver.
The manner of the Game 5 defeat has to have really stung the San Antonio Spurs as they trailed by 30 points at one stage and the eventual 18 point defeat will have given the Nuggets belief. The fact Denver have snapped a losing run on the road in San Antonio in Game 4 will only have added to the confidence of the visitors who have made the right adjustments in each of the last two games.
Not many would have picked Michael Malone to out-coach Gregg Popovich, but that has been the situation in the past couple of games and Popovich has recognised as much. It has to be said that the Spurs don't seem to have the same level of talent as the Nuggets, but one of the major factors has been the slump suffered by Derrick White at a time when Jamal Murray has come alive for the Nuggets.
For San Antonio to turn this Series and move back to Denver for Game 7 they are going to need White to perform as he had been doing prior to Game 4. The last two games have not been to the level White would have wanted from himself, but the whole team being back home has to be a boost considering how much better San Antonio have played here compared to on the road.
Denver have to keep doing what they are doing, but they might be running into a much tougher Spurs team than the one they faced in Game 5. The Spurs have been strong bouncing back from heavy road losses where they have struggled to score points and that has been particularly the case when they have played at home in their next game.
The Spurs have won three of the four games at home in that spot this season and they are facing a Denver team who have lost eight of their last eleven as the road underdog. Of course one of the exceptions in that run was a Game 4 win here, but I think the Spurs are going to be motivated at home and they can do enough to force a Game 7.
San Antonio are 12-7 against the spread favoured by less than 4 points this season and the favourite has improved to 13-6 against the spread when the Spurs and Nuggets have met. There are some poor trends for both teams to try and get the better of in this one and I think a tense Game 6 may be decided by home court advantage for the Spurs.
Friday 26th April
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 6 Pick: We have seen one of the First Round Series needing a third weekend to separate the teams involved as they head into a Game 7, but the Golden State Warriors will be desperate to avoid falling into the same situation. On the other hand the Los Angeles Clippers will be feeling very good about themselves having won at the Oracle Arena for the second time during this First Round Series, although they have lost both games played at the Staples Center.
Steve Kerr was not very happy with the way his Golden State team played in Game 5 as they looked to close the Series out and this additional game is a slight issue for them. If they win the Warriors will be going into the Western Conference Semi Final Series with the Houston Rockets on Sunday and the latter have already arrived in the Bay Area to prepare for that eventuality.
Adding a Game 7 to the docket would be a real problem for the defending Champions who have perhaps not taken the Clippers as seriously as they should have. In Game 2 the Warriors blew the biggest lead in a NBA PlayOff game when losing that one and another home loss in Game 5 may have broken some of the aura around their home advantage.
The adjustments are going to have to be made Defensively after the way the Warriors allowed Los Angeles to have their way with things from the field. So far in this Series they have bounced back from sub-par efforts and I would think that is going to be the same on Friday in this Game 6.
Los Angeles will be trying to do the same as they have over the last couple of months and that is allow their depth to challenge teams who are superior to them. In Game 6 it was the play of the bench that once again led the Clippers to the huge upset on the road and the public are behind them in Game 6 as far as the spread goes judging by the tickets taken.
However I am going with the sharps who are backing the Golden State Warriors to bounce back in a big way. Defending Champions who are beaten by 6 or more points have gone 6-0 against the spread in the next game when playing on the road in the First Round of the PlayOffs.
The Warriors are also 6-1 against the spread following a straight up loss and they have gone 4-1 against the spread in the game after allowing at least 125 points. At the same time the Clippers have gone 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games following a win, including in Game 3 of this First Round Series when they failed to cover at home, while they are also 1-4 against the spread following a game in which they have scored at least 125 points.
Golden State are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games at the Staples Center versus the Clippers and the road team has improved to 11-4 against the spread. I can't imagine the Warriors are going to make the mistake of losing intensity for the second time in a row and they will be looking to make a statement ahead of the big Series with the Houston Rockets and I will back them to cover this number.
Saturday 27th April
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: Very early on in this First Round NBA PlayOff Series it felt like we were heading to a Game 7 and that is where the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs are going into the third weekend of the post-season. The momentum has swung back and forth between the teams as the Spurs led 2-1 before the Nuggets won two in a row and then failed to close out the Series in a road defeat in Game 6.
Now the feeling would be that the momentum is with the Spurs, but I think these teams are closely matched that a slight adjustment could see Denver win for a third time in a row at home during this Series.
Teams coming off a win in Game 6 have actually gone 13-18 against the spread in the last thirty-one times we have needed a 'winner takes all' contest. The home team have also gone 30-20 against the spread and in the NBA PlayOffs First Round those hosts are 15-10 against the spread with those trends all favouring Denver.
The Nuggets were very much in Game 6 until the end of the third quarter and the early stages of the fourth quarter when the Spurs took control of the game. They did allow the Spurs to shoot 57% from the field and that was underlined by the fact that San Antonio did not turn the ball over very often, but Denver will believe home comforts will perhaps put some pressure on the Spurs and see those numbers decline.
The home team has improved to 4-1 against the spread in this First Round Series and Denver are looking to bounce back from a double digit defeat. The Nuggets are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in that spot and three wins in a row at home against San Antonio has to be boosting the confidence of a team who will feel they took the Spurs best shot and still had every chance of turning Game 6 in their favour.
I backed San Antonio in Game 6 as they usually recover from a subpar Offensive effort, but it has been much tougher backing up strong performances on that side of the court. The Spurs are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve when scoring triple digits on the board, while San Antonio are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games facing a team who have won at least 60% of their home games.
San Antonio are also 2-7 against the spread when coming off a straight up win and I do think the Nuggets have shown they can make the adjustments throughout this Series to want to back them in Game 7. Gregg Popovich is a top Coach and I have a lot of respect for what he can get out of his players, but I will back the Denver Nuggets to move through to a Western Conference Semi Final Series with the Portland Trail Blazers.
MY PICKS: 23/04 Toronto Raptors - 12 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
23/04 Philadelphia 76ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
23/04 San Antonio Spurs + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
23/04 Portland Trail Blazers - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/04 Houston Rockets - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
24/04 Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Clippers Under 235 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/04 San Antonio Spurs - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/04 Golden State Warriors - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/04 Denver Nuggets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
First Round PlayOff Update: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)
Thanks for Great NBA Picks
ReplyDelete