Monte Carlo Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (April 17th)

I will be honest with you- I have no plans to ever select Fernando Verdasco again in my Tennis Picks after his defeat to Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the Monte Carlo First Round on Tuesday.

That was a low point, but big performances from Juan Ignacio Londero and Borna Coric when both players were behind the black ball at least meant another winning day for the Picks.

Juan Ignacio Londero ultimately came up short in his match, but covered as the underdog, while Borna Coric came back from a set and a break down to win his match and move through to the Third Round.

On Wednesday we have another busy day as the remainder of the Second Round is played before a packed Thursday will see the Third Round completed. Hopefully I can keep the good times rolling this week in Monte Carlo on what is going to be one of the busier days of the weeks both on the courts at the tournament and also for my Tennis Picks. This is going to be a pivotal day which could determine which may the week goes in terms of wins-losses, but I have something to build upon and am looking for another positive return.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: There are a lot of positives around Stefanos Tsitsipas that you can read about after strong runs in some of the hard court tournaments that have been played in 2019. I have no doubt he is one of the potential stars of the ATP Tour in the years to come, but Tsitsipas still has plenty of room to improve.

His hard court numbers have not been dominant, but the 'x' factor has allowed Tsitsipas to win matches that he perhaps should not have. It has been one of the main reasons I have not really backed the young Greek star in too many matches so far this season, but a return to the clay courts should be a real positive for him after Tsitsipas reached the Final in Barcelona and the Semi Final in Estoril in 2018.

The serve was a potent weapon for Tsitsipas in 2018 on the clay courts and he held 85% of the service games played. That is a very strong number on the surface and Tsitsipas also managed to get a little more out of his return of serve on the clay courts than he has in his general yearly performance. Stefanos Tsitsipas has broken in just under 25% of the return games played on the clay courts in 2018 and that is significantly higher than the sub-20% overall break numbers.

I am also backing Tsitsipas to cover in this one because he is facing Mikhail Kukushkin who has not really enjoyed playing on the clay courts. The win over Jeremy Chardy in the First Round was a very good one for Kukushkin, but he has been erratic behind serve and that does put him under pressure in matches on this surface.

The head to head with Tsitsipas does not make very good reading for Kukushkin who has lost both of their previous matches against each other and on the hard courts where he may have felt he has his best chances of beating the youngster. The struggles on the return of serve is a real issue for Kukushkin and I think that could be the case in this Second Round match too.

In their previous matches Kukushkin has broken in under 4% of return games compared with Tsitsipas doing the same in 22% of return games. Add in the surface factor which should tip the scale a little further in favour of the younger player and I think Tsitsipas can be backed to cover what is a big number.

A first match on the clay courts for Tsitsipas is a concern, but I think he will enjoy being back on the red dirt and can beat an opponent who has not found his best tennis consistently on this surface.


Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 games v Cameron Norrie: Both of these players earned solid wins in the First Round to move through to what they will perceive to be a winnable Second Round match. Marton Fucsovics missed a host of break point chances, but came through a third set in his win over Nikoloz Basilashvili, while Cameron Norrie comfortably dismissed veteran Adrian Mannarino who has been struggling for form.

I do think there is every reason for both players to be feeling good about their tennis, but my edge is with Fucsovics who looks to be the superior clay court player at this time compared with British hope Cameron Norrie.

In 2018 Fucsovics won a title in Geneva on the clay courts, but his serve can be vulnerable at times. It was a strong weapon for him in the First Round, but Fucsovics only held 73% of his service games last season on the clay courts and he will have to be better if he is going to defend the points he earned during this part of the season twelve months ago.

Where Fucsovics could have a slight edge over Cameron Norrie is on the return of serve as he broke serve in 31% of return games and that is slightly superior to what the British player has been able to do. I do think Fucsovics will be able to put Norrie under some pressure in this one, but Norrie will also feel he is good enough to challenge the Fucsovics serve and it could make things a little closer than I initially felt.

However I also think Norrie has benefited from playing the big points very well in his matches on the clay courts and that sees him save plenty of break points. It may be more difficult to do that against Fucsovics considering how he has been able to return on the clay courts and I can't see the Hungarian struggling as badly as he did in the First Round when it comes to converting those chances.

It may need three sets to separate these players, but I think Fucsovics can edge out Norrie and I will look for him to cover the number.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Two years ago Jan-Lennard Struff came from a set down to upset Grigor Dimitrov at this tournament and I think that is a slight factor in the prices for this Second Round match.

I will be the first to admit that I find backing Grigor Dimitrov a chore as he is one of the more overrated players on the Tour. A high profile players is going to get his backers and I think the layers recognise that and many times I find him underpriced, but this may be a rare occasion on which he is perhaps a little underrated.

A solid win over Matteo Berrettini helped Dimitrov into the Second Round and in three of the last four seasons he has produced very similar numbers on the clay courts. In the most part the serve has been producing around a 78% hold mark and Dimitrov is breaking in the low 20's in terms of percentages which has made him a solid if unspectacular player on the surface.

Now he has to face an opponent in Struff who has been comfortable on the clay courts but struggled for consistency. The numbers do take a dent when he has played opponents Ranked in the top 50 of the World Rankings and Struff is only 5-13 when facing an opponent Ranked between Number 21 and Number 50 in the World.

In those matches Struff has held around 72% of service games, but the real problem has been earning the breaks of serve which has seen Struff earn the game on the opponent's serve in 16% of return games. I do think he will be up for this match with Dimitrov and if the Bulgarian is slightly off his game he will have big problems, but Struff is going to find it tough to back up the win over Denis Shapovalov in the First Round.

There have been matches where Jan-Lennard Struff can play tennis at a level that is far higher than his Number 44 World Ranking and he is set for a career best Ranking. That has to be respected, but I am going to look for Dimitrov to edge out this opponent and move through to the Third Round to be played on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Simon @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martin Klizan + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Monte Carlo Update: 4-1, + 5.08 Units (10 Units Staked, + 50.80% Yield)