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Friday 19 April 2019

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (April 20-22)

So put your hand up if you were one of the Fantasy players that put their faith in Brighton last week knowing they had two home games with Bournemouth and Cardiff City to come... Mine is high in the air and it was a shocking decision.

The Wild Card I had been saving to make sure I have a full selection for GW35 with a team loaded with players who have two games did not work out anywhere near to how I had hoped.

I am looking for a bounce back week after what was arguably my worst GW since September and my positive progression up the standings has been well and truly halted with that terrible GW34.

Below you can read my Fantasy advice for the week as well as my thoughts on the Premier League games to be played from Saturday through to Monday as the race for the title, the top four and the final relegation place hits the final run in.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur put a huge emotional effort into the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg that was played between these teams on Wednesday night. It was a remarkable game with five goals inside the first twenty-two minutes and the drama of a late winning goal from Manchester City being ruled out by VAR saw the atmosphere burst like a bubble in injury time.

The fans are going to be feeling the emotional exertions of Wednesday too and Pep Guardiola has a big challenge to pick his players up for a third meeting with Tottenham Hotspur in ten days.

I have no doubt that Tottenham Hotspur will be feeling a slight lack of energy themselves, but they have the positive of getting through to the Champions League Semi Final to give them a boost of adrenaline. However I can't ignore what has been a miserable away form for Spurs in recent weeks that has seen them lose 7 of their last 8 on their travels including a defeat here in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Some poor mistakes from Manchester City in defensive positions cost them the away goals that ended their participation in that competition, but I think they can respond with another win over Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday. This time I believe the margin may be a little more comfortable for Manchester City who have not let negative emotions take over their performances in the last twenty months.

Last season they recovered from their Champions League exit by securing an impressive 1-3 win over Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley Stadium and I do think Manchester City will be looking for a strong end to retain the Premier League title. Ultimately they did win the game on Wednesday and will feel they were more unlucky than deserving to go out of the Champions League and a stronger depth of squad can give Manchester City the edge in this big Premier League fixture.

Last season Manchester City beat Tottenham Hotspur comfortably in both League games. This season their two wins have been tighter, but Manchester City have been the better team in arguably all three games played between these teams and I will back Manchester City to make a statement of their intent for the rest of the season by earning a measure of revenge over Spurs.

I will back the home team to win by two or more goals on the day.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- has two games this week, but the Champions League exit to Tottenham Hotspur should mean Manchester City play their strongest XI both times.

Alternative: Kevin De Bruyne- could be the key cog in the title race and earned three assists in the Second Leg against Spurs during the week.


Bournemouth v Fulham Pick: There may not be a lot for Bournemouth and Fulham to play for at this stage of the season, but I think there is enough ambition in both camps to make this a decent game of football.

Last weekend Bournemouth responded to Eddie Howe's demands for a strong finish to the season by dismissing Brighton by a remarkable 0-5 scoreline at the Amex Stadium. While that has ended suggestions the players are already looking ahead to their holidays, there should also be motivation to apologise to the fans who were unhappy watching Bournemouth go down to a 1-3 defeat to Burnley in their last game here.

Eddie Howe made it clear he was not unhappy with the response of the fans as they had been behind the team throughout the ninety minutes and only voiced discontent at the final whistle. He will be urging his players to produce a big performance in front of those fans this weekend and they are facing a poor travelling Fulham team.

The motivation for Fulham is clearly making sure they finish at least 19th in the Premier League table, but the players won't want to go through the entire League campaign without an away win. They are trying to snap a run of 7 successive away defeats this weekend, but Fulham's defensive issues have let them down and I think that is going to play a part in another defeat away from Craven Cottage.

Bournemouth won by a wide margin at Craven Cottage when in much better form earlier this season, but I imagine this one is a little more competitive. However I think the home team will use the momentum of their victory last weekend to propel them forward down the stretch in the 2018/19 season and I will look for them to win this game.

Backing them to do so in a fixture containing at least two goals is the call as they will likely need to hit that mark themselves considering Fulham have scored in 5 of their last 7 away League games. There will be confidence in the away side having won last weekend too, but the away day blues may continue for one more game at least and I will back Bournemouth to win a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: David Brooks- a source of goals and assists for the home team who should be making most of the play.

Alternative: Callum Wilson- scored and grabbed two assists last week, Callum Wilson could be in line for a strong end to this season.


Huddersfield Town v Watford Pick: A huge effort was put into their last Premier League fixture by Watford who had a lot of things conspire against them in the defeat to Arsenal. The overall performance was strong despite playing with ten men for the large majority of the fixture and Watford may feel a little unlucky not to have picked up a positive result on the day.

They will be looking to bounce back on Saturday with a visit to the bottom club Huddersfield Town and even the absence of Troy Deeney should not bother the visitors. For the most part this season Watford have been a dangerous team on their travels with some talented players in the final third capable of exposing spaces.

Both Roberto Pereyra and Gerard Deulofeu are expected to be back in the squad for this fixture and they can supply the bullets for Andre Gray to hit the target. Gray has not been in great form, but he has been in the right positions and can take advantage of a Huddersfield Town team who have conceded at least four goals in 3 of their last 4 games.

Huddersfield Town have been struggling at this level and the players seem unconvinced about Jan Siewert's tactics. It could mean another big decision is needed by the Huddersfield Town board before the Championship season starts and I think the recent effort in games has not been to the standard they would have expected.

Playing at home should get the players pumped, but Huddersfield Town were crushed 1-4 by Leicester City in their last game here. They are conceding too many goals and Watford can take advantage by winning a game featuring two or more goals which was the same recommendation I made when Leicester City won here earlier this month.

Fantasy Star: Andre Gray- has two games this week and sure to be leading the line now Troy Deeney is suspended. A chance to cement a place for the FA Cup Final.

Alternative: Gerard Deulofeu- is back in training and can follow up his starring appearance in the FA Cup Semi Final as Watford chase 7th place.


West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: Injuries and uncertainty about the future of many of the West Ham United players has perhaps been a factor in some of the performances in recent weeks, but they were very unfortunate to not earn a positive result at Old Trafford last weekend.

Manuel Pellegrini will be looking for more of the same from his players, but the injury to Manuel Lanzini is a blow to their chances of bouncing back and ending a run of 3 consecutive losses. A loss of that kind of creativity makes it very difficult for West Ham United whose players don't look particularly keen on putting in the kind of shift they need to if they want to win football games at this level.

West Ham United have conceded at least twice in 5 straight games and that makes it very difficult to win games, while they were beaten 0-2 by Everton in the last game at the London Stadium. The Hammers are also facing a Leicester City team who are very keen on returning to European competition and who had been in fine form under new manager Brendan Rodgers before their 0-1 defeat to Newcastle United in their last game.

That may have ended a 4 game winning run, but Leicester City are looking for a third straight win away from home. They have scored two or more goals in wins at Burnley and Huddersfield Town and Leicester City have a decent recent run at West Ham United where they have won twice and drawn in their last 3 visits to East London.

Winning here won't be easy if West Ham United play as well as they did at Old Trafford, but Leicester City have also been in good form and I will back the visitors on the Asian Handicap. At least that will return half the stake in the event of a draw, but I think Leicester City can take advantage of an injury-hit host to earn a victory on Saturday.

Fantasy Star: Jamie Vardy- limited chances last week, but a player in form and facing a team struggling with injuries.

Alternative: Felipe Anderson- scored last week at Old Trafford and the main creativity force for a team missing Manuel Lanzini.


Wolves v Brighton Pick: Losing games is a concern for any team in a relegation battle at this stage of the season, but losing in the manner Brighton did against Bournemouth and Cardiff City over the last seven days is a major worry for Chris Hughton, the players and the fans.

Back to back home losses while failing to score and conceding seven goals against a team out of form and one that is directly below them in the Premier League table is not what Brighton fans, or Fantasy players, would have been hoping for. They are now under intense pressure to bounce back, but the fixture list looks kinder to Cardiff City than it does to Brighton and there is every chance that The Seagulls are going to be relegated.

They will be hoping that Wolves are still suffering from the FA Cup Semi Final hangover which seemed to afflict them in their 3-1 defeat to Southampton last weekend. It was one of the poorer performances Wolves have produced all season, but Nuno Espirito Santo is not going to allow negative thoughts to linger and having another week to prepare for this fixture should help.

Wolves have also been significantly better at home than they have on their travels in recent weeks and that makes them a very dangerous opponent for Brighton to deal with. The home team have won 7 of their last 8 games at Molineux and they have scored at least twice in each of those wins while creating plenty of chances and really putting teams under pressure.

The ambition to finish 7th in the Premier League table should be motivating the Wolves players to bounce back from the defeat last week and I think they are going to have too much for Brighton who have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 7 away Premie League games.

Brighton do have a decent record here in recent visits, but this Wolves team is much improved from the one that Brighton last played at Molineux in April 2017. I expect a much better performance from Wolves than what they produced at St Mary's and I think the lack of confidence in the Brighton squad may see them fall to a defeat in a fixture that produces two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- has two home games this week and Wolves have been so strong here in recent weeks. Raul Jimenez has been scoring points for fun at home with goals and assists.

Alternative: Diogo Jota- the main strike partner to Jimenez and also a source of goals and assists when playing at home.


Newcastle United v Southampton Pick: The second of the five live televised Premier League games to be played this weekend comes from St James' Park and both Newcastle United and Southampton can play with an element of freedom as they search for a vital three points that will all but secure their spot in the top flight for another season.

It already feels like the two teams have enough to avoid relegation, but Cardiff City's win at Brighton on Tuesday night has tightened things up again. Both managers will recognise that and urge their players to focus on their own performances with decent form suggesting they have the quality to avoid the drop.

Newcastle United have been very impressive at home in the Premier League where they had won 5 in a row before the 0-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. They scored at least twice in each of those wins at St James' Park and they are facing a Southampton team who can be vulnerable defensively despite the clean sheet in the 0-1 win at Brighton in their last away game.

Ralph Hasenhuttl has his players performing with some belief and Southampton have been much improved under the Austrian. The attacking threat has become clear with Southampton scoring in 13 of their last 14 games in all competitions, but the worry is always the fact that they have kept only 2 clean sheets in the same run of games.

Both teams will feel they have the attacking threat to produce goals in this one and I think there is an element of freedom for the two teams who have been in decent form of late. The 5 points between Southampton and Cardiff City look huge with four games remaining for the latter and the biggest threat to my selection for this game has to be the 1-1 draw.

I think they can go a little further and am going to challenge the big quotes for three or more goals to be shared out despite the goalless draw between these teams earlier in the season. Prior to that result, Newcastle United versus Southampton fixtures had produced three or more goals in 7 straight between these clubs and I will look for that trend to get going again this weekend.

Fantasy Star: Solomon Rondon- three of his last four goals for Newcastle United have come at St James' Park and Southampton can be vulnerable defensively.

Alternative: James Ward-Prowse- didn't have an impact in the 3-1 win over Wolves from a Fantasy perspective, but has been important for Southampton.


Everton v Manchester United Pick: This is a vital fixture for Manchester United in their bid to get into the top four and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has made it clear his team need to win at least 4 of their remaining 5 games if they are going to get into the Champions League spots. One of those wins has to come against Chelsea at Old Trafford in seven days time, but Manchester United will also be looking for some momentum to take into the remaining games having struggled for consistency over the last month.

Ever since beating Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester United have lost 5 of 7 games in all competitions and that includes defeats in their last 4 away games during which time they have conceded at least twice each time.

It is an issue when going to Goodison Park where Everton have been in fine form of late- in their last 3 games here, Everton have drawn with Liverpool (0-0) and beaten both Chelsea (2-0) and Arsenal (1-0) and all three of those clubs are above Manchester United in the League table. Marco Silva should be confident his team can add another scalp to their collection at home, but Everton need to bounce back from their 2-0 defeat to Fulham last Saturday.

They have been better at home in general and Everton will be challenging a Manchester United team who may be lacking in confidence and have been having issues keeping clean sheets. In the final third Everton have some real quality and this is a huge test for Manchester United just days after exiting the Champions League in Barcelona.

A win is important, but I think Manchester United may be just about ok if they don't lose although that will put some pressure on them when facing Manchester City and Chelsea in back to back games at Old Trafford over the next week. They will finish up facing two of the current bottom three, while the teams above them in the race for the top four have some challenging fixtures to negotiate too.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be targeting a big win here and Manchester United are unbeaten in 8 against Everton, which includes winning on 2 of their last 3 visits here. I think Manchester United will have to score at least twice to earn the victory at Goodison Park this weekend though considering the defensive issues and I think this will be a fixture that produces three or more goals.

Everton's run of clean sheets at home against three of the top five is going to challenge the Manchester United attack, but the visitors have found goals away from home under Solskjaer and my biggest concern to see this pick as unsuccessful has to be a 1-1 scoreline. I think there is enough for both clubs to chase the three points though and it could be a fun game for the neutrals on Easter Sunday, although a tense one for the Manchester United fans and players that know the importance of a return to the Champions League.

Fantasy Star: Gylfi Sigurdsson- has been integral to Everton's successes in recent weeks and will be a danger throughout this one.

Alternative: Jesse Lingard- a severe lack of goals in the last couple of months as injury have slowed him down, but will likely start and does seem to get into those forward positions to cause problems.


Arsenal v Crystal Palace Pick: A couple of tough away games have resulted in back to back 0-1 wins for Arsenal at Watford and Napoli and they should be feeling confident now they return home for their latest Premier League fixture. With the likes of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United facing difficult away trips to Manchester City and Everton respectively, Arsenal may feel this is a big chance to really take hold of one of the top four places which will mean a return to the Champions League.

My one concern for the players is that there could be some fatigue in the legs considering they have played those two tough away games since Crystal Palace last took to the field. Now they also have to deal with an opponent that has fantastic speed in the final third and who have been very confident away from home where Roy Hodgson can employ some counter attacking tactics that see Crystal Palace at their best.

Their recent results at the Emirates Stadium are not very encouraging, while Arsenal have won 8 in a row at home while scoring two or more goals in each of those. The last 7 wins have come by two or more goal margins too as Arsenal have shown defensive strength that has not really been a feature of their season in general.

I think the confidence of being back at home will help Arsenal overcome any tiredness they may be feeling and this Crystal Palace team have not been at their best in recent games. They were comfortably beaten at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this month and Crystal Palace have not been creating as many chances away from home as they would like.

With the run Arsenal are on at home with the streak of wins and the streak of winning by two or more goals I think they can do enough to beat Crystal Palace on the day. 4 of the last 6 games between these teams at the Emirates Stadium have ended with an Arsenal win of two or more goal margins and my feeling that the Crystal Palace players are perhaps mentally shutting down means I will back the hosts to cover the Asian Handicap.

Fantasy Star: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang- scores a large majority of his goals at home and has two games to come this week.

Alternative: Sead Kolasinac- Arsenal have had back to back clean sheets this past week and have been stronger at home.


Cardiff City v Liverpool Pick: This is a vital fixture at the top and bottom of the Premier League table and it won't surprise anyone to know it was one that was picked for television coverage.

In all honesty it is going to take a brave person to tell me that Liverpool are not going to win considering their recent form and the fact that Cardiff City have struggled when they have met the very best in the Premier League. The home team did give Arsenal and Chelsea some scares, but they have conceded at least twice in their home games with both of those London clubs mentioned as well as Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and Manchester United and doing that against Liverpool will likely mean the three points are heading to Merseyside.

Cardiff City will offer a lot of fight and will battle with a Liverpool team who are travelling back from Portugal, but the lack of quality is likely going to cost them a victory.

However there is every chance they can play their part in this fixture on the scoreboard as Liverpool have conceded in each of their last 4 away games. One of those came at Fulham, another side in the bottom three, while relegation threatened Southampton also scored against Liverpool in a recent home Premier League game.

Earlier this season Cardiff City scored a consolation goal in their 4-1 defeat at Anfield and this is a team who have scored in 3 of their 5 home games against the 'big six' clubs with Liverpool yet to host. The Bluebirds can be a threat from set pieces and Liverpool have been far from invulnerable defensively and at the prices it looks like the right play.

If it wasn't for some recent heavy defeats at home I would have considered backing Cardiff City with the start on the Asian Handicap, but I think they are going to need to score if they are going to cover. I do think that is possible and backing both teams to score is the selection in this fixture.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- back in the goalscoring form and can lead the charge towards the title.

Alternative: Sadio Mane- both have scored in each of the last two games and they can pose a threat to Cardiff City throughout this League fixture.


Chelsea v Burnley Pick: The Monday Night Football offering has a lot more on the line for Chelsea chasing a Champions League spot than it does for Burnley who look to have earned the points to avoid the drop. However Sean Dyche is not someone who is going to allow his players to slack off with four games remaining and I think Burnley could provide a threat that comes from a team that have won 3 League games in a row this side of the last international break.

It does seem like Chelsea are struggling to put in full performances and after half time they have been having difficulties in recent games. They beat West Ham United 2-0, but the visitors were the better team in the second half, while Everton, Liverpool and Slavia Prague have all won in the second half in recent games.

That is definitely an issue that needs to be resolved if Chelsea are going to return to the Champions League, but they can earn the three points on Monday. Both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United will have played earlier this weekend, but both have tough away games so Chelsea can take advantage of any slips although I am not sure it is going to be a comfortable day at Stamford Bridge.

I think Burnley can play their part with the two forwards they use and the danger posed from set pieces. Burnley managed to score at Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool in the Premier League and they can cause Chelsea problems who have been playing plenty of big football in the last few days while Burnley have been resting and recuperating.

Chelsea don't concede many at home, but they have conceded in 2 of their last 3 home games with Burnley and teams are creating chances here. It would be a huge surprise if the home team don't score at least one and I will back both teams to get on the scoreboard in this one.

Fantasy Star: Ruben Loftus-Cheek- an advanced midfield spot and can take advantage of spaces created by Eden Hazard.

Alternative: Chris Wood- if Burnley are to score, it could be the New Zealander whose two goals last week almost certainly secured their place in the Premier League for the 2019/20 season.



Fantasy Football
Last week was a real body blow to my FPL team after putting my faith in Brighton who responded with a 0-5 and 0-2 defeat in the space of a few days. The decision to pick Kieran Trippier over Jan Vertonghen also backfired as he was rested, while Captaining Hueng-Min Son was barely a reward as he played three minutes (although did earn an assist).

Miserable times at a critical time of the season, but GW35 offers the chance of a bounce back with double games for a number of teams.

Goalkeeper 4.8 Million and Above
Bernd Leno (Arsenal- 4.9 Million): Has two games this week and Arsenal have earned back to back clean sheets. A decent option.


Goalkeeper 4.7 Million and Below
Ben Foster (Watford- 4.6 Million): Two winnable games for Watford and a real chance to add at least one clean sheet.

Rui Patricio (Wolves- 4.5 Million): Two games this week and Wolves have been much stronger at home than on their travels.


Defender 5.1 Million and Above
Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City- 6.1 Million): Will likely play both Manchester City games. Can be a threat from set pieces too.

Matt Doherty (Wolves- 5.3 Million): A real chance of at least one clean sheet and also an attacking threat in the system used by Wolves.


Defender 5 Million and Below
Sead Kolasinac (Arsenal- 5 Million): Like I mentioned in the goalkeeper section, Arsenal have had back to back clean sheets. Sead Kolasinac is also an attacking threat capable of providing assists.

Willy Boly (Wolves- 4.7 Million): A cheaper option to get into the Wolves defence and a serious threat from set pieces.

Yan Valery (Southampton- 4.1 Million): Have two games this week and Valery could be a forward thinking option from defence.


Midfielder 7.1 Million and Above
Raheem Sterling (Manchester City- 11.5 Million): Has been in seriously good form and Manchester City are all in to go for the Premier League title. Should play both games this week and scored twice against Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday.

Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City- 9.7 Million): Could be the key player in determining the destiny of the Premier League title. Had two assists against Crystal Palace last week and surpassed that with three against Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.

Heung-Min Son (Tottenham Hotspur- 8.8 Million): Scored twice at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday, but definitely a risk when it comes to rotation.


Midfielder 7 Million and Below
Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Arsenal- 6.7 Million): Could be having a big impact for Arsenal with Aaron Ramsey expected to be ruled out for the remainder of the season.

Diogo Jota (Wolves- 6.2 Million): Has scored in the last two League games at home and also managed to add another in the FA Cup Quarter Final against Manchester United at Molinuex. Serious threat with back to back games here to come this week.

Jordan Henderson (Liverpool- 5.3 Million): Does not have two games this week, but Henderson is being used in advanced positions for Liverpool and a cheap way to get into their midfield after he was rested in Portugal.


Forward 6.4 Million and Above
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City- 11.7 Million): Scored in the Champions League and should lead the line for both Manchester City games. Also scored twice in his last start at Old Trafford which is stunningly four years ago.

Raul Jimenez (Wolves- 6.9 Million): Two home games in a row and Raul Jimenez has scored the majority of his goals here.


Forward 6.3 Million and Below
Andre Gray (Watford- 5.9 Million): No Troy Deeney gives Andre Gray a chance to cement his place in the FA Cup Final starting eleven. Games against Huddersfield Town and Southampton should provide an opportunity to add to his five Premier League goals.

Danny Ings (Southampton- 5.4 Million): A favourite of Ralph Hasenhuttl and plays twice this week.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor
Bournemouth & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes
Watford & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Ladbrokes
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Fred
Newcastle United-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook
Everton-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Cardiff City-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 2.30 Paddy Power
Chelsea-Burnley Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 Paddy Power

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