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NFL Week 16 Picks 2025 (Thursday 18th December-Monday 22nd December)

Three regular season weeks of the 2025 year remain for NFL teams and that means the margin for error has all but disappeared. Last week we s...

Saturday, 3 January 2026

NFL Week 18 Picks 2026 (Saturday 3rd January-Sunday 4th January)

And before you know it, we are into the final Week of the NFL regular season.

There are still some things in play in Week 18, but perhaps not as many as the League would have wanted.

However, that has not stopped the broadcasters from being able to select some 'winner takes all' offerings from the final set of games and the NFC South and AFC North Divisional games are set for big spots.

The Las Vegas Raiders are almost certainly going to be 'on the clock' when the regular season comes to a close, while the fourteen teams entering the NFL Playoffs are all going to believe the year is going to begin with a Super Bowl Championship.

You can certainly make the case for a number of teams to contend for the Championship in what has been a very wide open NFL season and that should be good viewing for neutral fans all around.


Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: There will be a lot of regret in Atlanta that the Falcons are already eliminated considering how open the NFC South Division has been, but they may yet have a big impact on the final standings and which team will be playing in the post-season.

The Falcons are still involved after upsetting the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17, although they will not be a factor if the Carolina Panthers (8-8) are able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) for the second time in three weeks.

It remains the ultimate focus for the Panthers who will not want to be nervously watching Sunday results and hoping they are still able to move through to the Playoffs via the backdoor. An Atlanta win over New Orleans will mean the Panthers are in no matter what happens on Saturday, but it has been made clear to the players that the only control they have over the situation is winning this game in Tampa Bay.

Things are much, much clearer for the Buccaneers who know their grip of the Division has been loosened by losing a number of tight games over the last month.

That includes a late Interception in the defeat to the Panthers in Week 16 when the Buccaneers looked on course for at least a game-tying Field Goal and perhaps the go-ahead Touchdown. Everyone associated with the Buccaneers have been feeling the disappointment of recent results and Quarter Back Baker Mayfield will need to be at his absolute best if Tampa Bay are alive for at least one more day.

He started the season in fine form, but Mayfield has been playing through injury and that has perhaps contributed to the back-breaking mistakes he has made. Interceptions are one thing, but second half Interceptions hurt so much more and that has become a feature for the Buccaneers, who would have been in a 'winner takes all' spot if they had not been upset by the Miami Dolphins in Week 17.

They cannot change that now and the fans will be expecting a big effort to at least maintain having a chance of playing more Football in January beyond this week.

Injuries have been a big part of the season for the Buccaneers, but they will feel they can run the ball with some success in this one. However, Head Coach Todd Bowles has suggested that too much stock was placed in this aspect of the Offense in the loss to the Carolina Panthers and this time they may choose to use the pass to open the running lanes.

In recent games, teams have been able to pound the rock with some success against the Panthers Defensive Line and the Buccaneers are set to have key performers on the Offensive Line available for this game.

Tampa Bay will want to establish the run to at least slow the Carolina pass rush, which has been a big weapon for the Panthers in recent games and contributed to stronger play out of the Secondary. They will be tested by the likes of Mike Evans, who has shown how much he has been missed for long stretches of the season, and the Buccaneers will note that they had more Offensive yards than the Carolina Panthers in the Week 16 loss.

On that day it proved to be the sole Interception thrown by Baker Mayfield which made the difference, and the Buccaneers have been speaking about playing a clean game.

The same will be said for the Carolina Panthers who will certainly feel they can run the ball with success in this one too and that will help ease the pressure on Bryce Young. The Quarter Back has shown positive flashes, but there are still plenty of outings like the one in Week 17 in which Young has struggled in the passing game and that has perhaps held the Panthers back.

Bryce Young should have more time than Baker Mayfield and he should be in third and manageable spots on the field, but he did not reach 200 passing yards in the win over the Buccaneers and has struggled for consistency. If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can get in front, they will certainly feel they can contain the Carolina passing game for long enough to earn the win and continue the home dominance of this Divisional rival.

Nothing has come easy for a team that has gotten used to losing close games, but the Buccaneers were driving for a win in Week 16 and this time they can use home field to just edge past the Panthers and then hope the Atlanta Falcons fail to win the final game of the season on Sunday.


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: After the Los Angeles Rams were beaten on Monday Night Football to put the NFC South in a funny position going into the final Week of the regular season, it was also a result that has massively cleared up the top of the NFC West.

Three teams will be heading to the post-season from the NFC West, but two of those will be out on the road.

One of those is the Los Angeles Rams, but the other is going to be decided on Saturday when the Divisional lead is fought out between the Seattle Seahawks (13-3) and San Francisco 49ers (12-4). Avoiding defeat is the focus for the Seahawks, but a loss would hand the 49ers the top Seed in the Conference and the Divisional title having already beaten Seattle on the road back in Week 1 of the season.

So much has changed for the 49ers since then with injuries decimating the Defensive unit and playing without Quarter Back Brock Purdy for a huge part of the regular season. With that in mind, all credit has to be given to Kyle Shanahan and his Coaching staff for putting the 49ers in a position where they can win the NFC West and earn the top Seed in the Conference.

At the same time, credit has to be given to the Seattle Seahawks for the season they have put together and Sam Darnold will feel this is another chance to prove himself as capable of winning a big game.

The Quarter Back led a huge comeback against the Los Angeles Rams a couple of weeks ago to keep the Seattle Seahawks on track for the top Seed in the Conference and he will have been encouraged by the San Francisco Defensive struggles in the 49ers win over Chicago last weekend.

Both teams are in a tough spot- Seattle had to play in the early Eastern time slot last week and San Francisco were on Sunday Night Football meaning this short week feels shorter than usual.

However, there will be no excuses with so much on the line not only for the Division, but potentially for the run to the Super Bowl.

Seattle might be on the road, but they are going to be confident in what they can do with the ball in hand.

In recent games, the Seahawks Offensive Line have shown they can play January Football by helping establish the run and Seattle are expected to have considerable success on the ground. Last week the Bears were able to execute very well when running the ball to keep the Quarter Back in front of the chains and and the Seahawks will look for a similar approach to make sure they are extending drives.

This should mean Sam Darnold has time to find his Receivers when he does drop back to throw, while the Quarter Back is not expected to be under a lot of pressure after the injuries San Francisco have suffered in the pass rush department. All of that suggests that the Seahawks can have successes like the Bears and Indianapolis Colts have had against the 49ers in the last couple of weeks and that will shift the pressure onto Brock Purdy and the San Francisco Offensive unit.

In those games Brock Purdy has more than handled the extra pressure and he will be confident with the likelihood of having George Kittle back.

However, Trent Williams is expected to missing on the Offensive Line and that is a massive blow for the 49ers who may struggle to run the ball with any consistency. It was already going to be a test against this Seattle Defensive Line, but without Williams it is so much tougher and that will mean it is up to Brock Purdy.

The Quarter Back has shown he can make big plays with his arm and his legs in leading the 49ers to high-scoring wins over the Colts and Bears, but those Defensive units do not stack up to the capabilities of the Seattle Seahawks.

Brock Purdy has been well protected, but the Seattle Secondary have played at a very good level all season and so it may be tough to replicate recent outings produced by the Quarter Back. Instead drives may stall and the 49ers may be a bit too one-dimensional, which could mean the momentum ends up being with the Seattle Seahawks.

The 49ers have won seven of the last eight between these NFC West rivals, but the sole exception in that run came in the San Francisco home loss to Seattle last season.

We could see the Seahawks make it back to back wins at the Stadium that is hosting the Super Bowl in February and that will make Seattle a real threat to return here for the big game in the weeks ahead.


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: There is still an outside chance that the Houston Texans (11-5) can win the AFC South, but they will need to win this game and hope the Jacksonville Jaguars lose when facing the Tennessee Titans. That looks unlikely, but the Texans will be playing next week in the Wild Card Round of the post-season, no matter what happens in Week 18.

Winning the Division would mean a home game in the Wild Card, but everything is suggesting the Houston Texans would actually be heading onto the road and very likely against the aforementioned Divisional rivals Jacksonville.

Nothing suggests the Texans will be resting key players in this one in preparation for next week and the start of the Playoffs and that gives Houston the edge in this game.

They are hosting the Indianapolis Colts (8-8) who will be motivated by wanting to end the season with a winning record, but injuries have stacked up and that has ultimately cost the Colts. Philip Rivers came out of retirement to try and help Indianapolis find a win or two that may have been enough to earn a spot in the post-season, but it was not to be and Rivers is not going to be starting this final regular season game.

Instead it is Riley Leonard who will be given a first start in the NFL as the Colts look to analyse what they have in the young Quarter Back, although it seems harsh to do that against this Houston Defensive unit.

It is the Houston Defense that has been the main reason the Texans have won eight in a row and built up considerable momentum to take into the Playoffs.

The Texans Defensive Line will certainly feel they can clamp down on the run and see if the Indianapolis Colts trust Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm. That is going to be a huge challenge for an inexperienced Quarter Back, especially against a Secondary that loves to turn the ball over, and Leonard being asked to make plays from third and long spots on the field looks tough.

Even with that in mind, this does feel like a big spread considering how Offensively challenged the Houston Texans have been this season- the Defensive unit, as stated before, have been the key, and CJ Stroud and company have some making up to do if they are going to offer the same kind of quality when they have the ball.

In saying that, this may be a Defensive unit that Houston can expose and especially if they are able to create short fields.

Credit has to be given to the Colts Defensive Line for the way they have continued to fight at the Line of Scrimmage, but the Secondary have picked up too many injuries and that has allowed Quarter Backs to attack the Colts with plenty of success. We have seen the likes of Brock Purdy pile up the Offensive numbers against the Colts and there are some key starters sitting out in Week 18, which can only aid CJ Stroud in his bid to show rivals that this Houston team have some firepower that deserves to be respected.

The Quarter Back should have time when he steps back to throw, and he should be able to hurt this Colts Secondary.

With a couple of turnovers, the Houston Texans may just end up pulling clear of a visiting team that will look back at this season with some regret and one that may lose some motivation if they fall a couple of scores behind.


Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: A big home loss in Week 17 has locked the Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) into the Number 7 Seed in the NFC Playoff Bracket and so the focus in Week 18 is simply getting healthier. That means a host of starters will be missing for this final game of the regular season and the Packers have already chosen third string Quarter Back Clayton Tune to begin this game.

A surprising decision by the Dallas Cowboys to cut Trevon Diggs may have worked for the Packers who picked him up to improve the Secondary, which has been struggling without the pass rush pressure up front.

He is another who may be worked out during the week to get ready for the Wild Card Round and there are a host of Green Bay players who just need a bit of time to see if they can recover physically and mentally for a post-season run.

Clayton Tune is in an unenviable position when facing the Minnesota Vikings (8-8) who will be keen to finish the season with a winning record, even if the year is not one that they will remember too fondly.

A third string, inexperienced Quarter Back facing a Brian Flores Vikings Defensive unit feels like a huge mismatch, especially as the Packers may struggle to run the ball very well. This all means the pressure is on Clayton Tune to keep things moving, but he could be lured into a couple of mistakes by the Vikings if he is throwing out of pressurised spots on the field.

JJ McCarthy is set to take the field for the Vikings, which is important as they look to end the season with one more win and give the Quarter Back a little more experience. He should be facing a number of Packers backups and McCarthy is still surrounded by a couple of Receivers who have the capabilities of a big bounce-back year in 2026.

Minnesota's Offensive Line should set the table up front and JJ McCarthy is unlikely to be under any immense pressure.

This should mean the Vikings are in a position to comfortably move the chains up and down the field and Minnesota can do enough to cover what is a big line.

Overall it has been a difficult season for the Vikings as injuries and inexperience hit them hard, but they should be able to finish with a flourish against this rival.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: They battled through injuries and came very close to winning in Week 17, which would have given the Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) real motivation to end the regular season on a high.

If they had fought back and beaten the Houston Texans, the Los Angeles Chargers would have been looking to win the AFC West, but the defeat came a couple of days after the Denver Broncos (13-3) had won on Christmas Day.

Both of those results mean the Denver Broncos have won the Division, but Sean Payton's team still need another victory to secure the top Seed in the Conference. They are playing after a mini-Bye and the focus has been on the Los Angeles backups after it was announced that Justin Herbert and a host of starters would not be suiting up.

Technically the Chargers are still fighting for Seeding as they can finish anywhere between the Number 5 and Number 7 spot, but there is also a real feeling that health means much more to them in January than the final Seed. No matter where they finish, the Chargers know they cannot be competitive without getting some of their key players prepared and that is the focus, which leaves them vulnerable to this Divisional rival.

It may not be what the New England Patriots or Jacksonville Jaguars want to hear, but the Chargers have to do what is right for them and one of those two teams can earn 'revenge' when they are likely hosting Los Angeles in the Wild Card Round.

That does mean the Denver Broncos winning this game and it has been made clear to the players that they have to focus if they are going to secure the top Seed in the Conference. Even when the chips seem to be in hand, the Broncos have struggled for consistency and they made heavy weather of beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17.

Bo Nix and company should be able to move the ball with some consistency against a team that will be a shell of the usual level of player that they will send out onto the field.

The Broncos can run the ball with some success and Nix will be throwing against a Secondary that will have some issues stopping the pass. This is a chance for Denver to show that they have an Offensive unit capable of backing up a strong Defensive unit, which is going to be the key to any deep Playoff run.

They are not exactly a unit that you would trust, but the Denver Broncos could make some big plays on the other side of the ball to set up some short fields.

Trey Lance has not lived up to his billing when being Drafted into the NFL and the Quarter Back has a challenging task in front of him, especially with the Offensive Line ravaged by injury and skill Offensive players sitting out.

Even in normal circumstances, the Chargers would know how hard they would have to work to run the ball with any consistency against this Denver Defensive Line, while the banged up Offensive Line has not been able to keep the pass rush out of the backfield. All of that should be on show in this Week 18 game that means so much more to the hosts than the Los Angeles Chargers and it is going to be very hard for Trey Lance to change the narrative.

There is a chance that Lance will show off some of his talent with the Broncos perhaps a little unsure what to expect, but they can also force a couple of mistakes and this should see Denver eventually pull away for a big win.

As mentioned, the Broncos have not exactly been a team that have looked as strong as the record would suggest, but they are rested, prepared and highly motivated and those can all be factors that lead to a solid win for Denver.


Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: The loss in Week 17 has stopped the Chicago Bears (11-5) from finishing the season with the top Seed in the NFC, but they are still chasing the Number 2 Seed having already clinched the NFC North.

There is going to be some question marks around whether the Bears want to finish with the Number 2 Seed knowing that would mean facing the Green Bay Packers for a third time, but games against San Francisco/Seattle or the Los Angeles Rams are not exactly 'easier'.

Instead the focus looks to be on bouncing back from the Week 17 loss in San Francisco and the Bears will certainly want to earn revenge for a regular season loss to the Detroit Lions (8-8) who have surprisingly been eliminated. This should also mean something to Head Coach Ben Johnson against the team where he was Coaching last year and who thumped Chicago pretty comfortably earlier in the season.

This time the Lions are ravaged by injury, although they are going to have Jared Goff playing at Quarter Back, and the game is being played at Soldier Field. An outdoor game in the elements of Chicago may not exactly been the most appealing to the Lions team that have nothing to play for and that may show up in this game.

Jared Goff and company will have noted how the 49ers moved the ball against the Bears last week and look to follow suit, but there are so many key players missing for the road team.

The Offensive Line have been worn down and that has seen the Lions really struggling to establish the run in recent games- failing to do that makes it very difficult for this team to function as they would like, while Goff is without a number of Receivers that are going to get healthy and have big returns next year.

Prior to the loss to the 49ers, the Chicago Bears had looked a little stronger in the Secondary with important names returning for them, but that Week 17 game was a considerable setback.

However, the Lions may not have the personnel to be able to exploit Chicago as much as they would like and the motivation has to be questioned.

January Football usually means looking to run the ball as effectively as possible- where the Detroit Offensive Line has been struggling, the Chicago Offensive Line have been hugely excited about getting to help the team to pound the rock. The numbers have been really impressive in recent games as the Bears have used a tandem at Running Back to very good effect, while they are facing a Lions Defensive Line that have given up monster plays on the ground.

As long as the Bears can continue at their current pace, Caleb Williams will be operating in third and manageable spots from the Quarter Back position and that should see him making his plays down the field before the pressure can get to him. Over the last several weeks, the Lions Secondary have tried to fill the holes that injuries have left behind, but those have eventually worn them down and Williams should be able to make sure the Chicago Bears are in a very good spot to bounce back from a loss and make sure they head into the Playoff with some momentum.

The home team will not want to risk anyone who is needed next week and who is not at full health, but overall the Bears should have the stronger personnel out on the field on both sides of the ball.

Covering will not be easy if attention shifts to next week, but the Lions have not looked fully focused in the last couple of weeks as the Playoffs slipped out of sight. With the setting giving the Bears real home field advantage, the new NFC North Champions can just show the rest of the Division they fully deserve that tag ahead of the Wild Card Round of the post-season.


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: For a period in Week 17, it felt like the NFL was going to have to deal with the worst case scenario of having most key Playoff slots confirmed before the final week of the regular season. Things changed and they did have a couple of key games that could be placed in high-profile spots.

The game that will round out the 2025 regular season on Sunday Night Football will also determine the final Playoff place when the AFC North is decided.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) have once again finished with a winning record under Head Coach Mike Tomlin, although there has been speculation about the future of Tomlin. Fans have not been happy, and missing the Playoffs will be a big blow for the Steelers, especially as they just had to beat struggling Cleveland last week to confirm their place as Divisional Winners.

It was a loss that came twenty-four hours after the Baltimore Ravens had run right through the Green Bay Packers to keep the season alive.

Derrick Henry was the key player just days after the Ravens had been hugely criticised for leaving him on the sidelines in the Fourth Quarter when trying to control the clock against the New England Patriots with a Week 16 lead. They were not going to make the same mistake and Henry crushed the Packers and is expected to be a key figure for Baltimore once again.

However, this week he will be playing behind Quarter Back Lamar Jackson who looks to be trending towards a return to action having missed the win last time out. It has been a season of ailments for Jackson, but there was no way he was going to sit out this huge game and it certainly gives the Baltimore Ravens an edge.

They were beaten by the Steelers at home, but the Ravens will still be wondering how that happened having pounded Pittsburgh on the ground and out-gained them significantly over the course of the game.

Pittsburgh will have TJ Watt back on this side of the ball, but the Defensive Line is going to know they are in for a very tough evening dealing with Derrick Henry and this Ravens Offensive Line. In recent games they have gotten back to basics with the Offensive approach and the assumption is that Henry is not going to be out of the lineup very often now we have reached January when the King really reminds everyone of his qualities.

TJ Watt will have an impact in the passing game, but the Ravens are much more dangerous when they can use play-action, although Lamar Jackson may not be taking too many risks with his legs. That does lessen his impact at Quarter Back, but the return is a boost and the pressure will be on the Steelers to find better Offensive plays than they produced in the very disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns.

It is a big blow that DK Metcalf is going to conclude his suspension this week having become the main target for Aaron Rodgers, while Darnell Washington broke his arm last week. Calvin Austin III is likely to suit up, but the veteran Quarter Back has not been given the kind of options in the passing game as he would have hoped, even if Rodgers has spoken glowingly about his time in Pittsburgh.

Aaron Rodgers will be hoping the Pittsburgh Offensive Line can at least help out and recent performances have been encouraging, although this is an improved Baltimore Defensive Line.

The Running Backs are likely to be a big part of the passing game, but it may not be easy for Pittsburgh to attack this vulnerable Baltimore Secondary without the likes of Metcalf and Washington. Aaron Rodgers has plenty of experience, but could also face plenty of pass rush pressure when he does drop back to throw the ball and that is where the Ravens look to have the slight edge.

This has traditionally been a rivalry that has been very competitive and with the underdog usually making use of the points being offered to them.

However, Baltimore blew out Pittsburgh twice last season and this feels like an opportunity for the Ravens to dominate at the Line of Scrimmage and ultimately allow Derrick Henry to carry them into the Wild Card Round. As long as Lamar Jackson is able to make a few plays, the Steelers could struggle to find enough Offensive output to keep this one close and the Baltimore Ravens can win the AFC North again and take the Number 4 Seed in a wide open Conference.

MY PICKS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.81 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)
Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)
Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)
Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)
Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)
Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 45-54, - 13.54 Units (99 Units Staked, - 13.68% Yield)

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