Day 8 at the Australian Open was clearly the worst one of the week, but a 2-4 return could have been a lot worse and the overall numbers remain in a very strong position.
However, things can unravel pretty quickly in the coming days and it is important to remain focused and make sure this opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season (and opening tournament covered) sets a solid foundation for the remainder of the year.
Giving away such a positive start would be a real disappointment.
On Day 9, the Quarter Final lineup for both Men's and Women's tournaments will be set and that means another busy day of action.
However, the matches look pretty competitive on Monday and so there are 'only' three selections from the play to come, which can be read below.
Taylor Fritz v Lorenzo Musetti: The 2024 Wimbledon Quarter Final between Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz was an entertaining five setter which was surprisingly won by the underdog Italian.
The odds are much tighter when they meet in the 2026 Australian Open with a place in the Quarter Final on the line.
We still have Taylor Fritz down as favourite in this Fourth Round match, which is not a surprise on the hard courts, but Lorenzo Musetti is being given a lot of respect. The World Number 5 actually is the higher Seed compared with Fritz, but there is little doubt that the latter is at his most comfortable on the hard courts.
Last year we did see Lorenzo Musetti pick up his level on this surface and that is backed up by the run to the US Open Quarter Final- his numbers were much improved on the hard courts and Musetti was able to compete at the Tour Finals for the first time in his career, which was another big achievement having broken through at Grand Slam level in Paris and New York City.
He has impressed here this week, but Musetti needed four and a half hours to get through his Third Round match and in very tough conditions- this has to have an impact on the gas tank, even with a day of rest between matches.
His opponent also needed to dig in to win his match, but Taylor Fritz did not need nearly as long out on the court and that is going to be important for him.
The American has also won both previous hard court matches against Lorenzo Musetti, including beating him a couple of months ago at the Tour Finals. That would have been a win in hostile surroundings, but Taylor Fritz is very experienced and his serve can be the big weapon in this match.
Over the first three matches here, Taylor Fritz has held 89% of his service games played compared with Musetti's 81% mark.
No one will be surprised that Lorenzo Musetti has produced the stronger returning numbers this week, but the conditions should be favourable to Taylor Fritz with the first strike very important here at Melbourne Park.
Taylor Fritz will take confidence from the win that was produced in Turin in November, albeit on an indoor hard court, although he will expect Lorenzo Musetti to offer plenty of resistance.
However, the longer this match goes, the more it should favour Taylor Fritz after the efforts Musetti made to get through his Third Round match, and the World Number 9 can reach his second Quarter Final at the Australian Open.
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Luciano Darderi: The heat in Melbourne was intense enough on Saturday to have a rule in place that there would not be too much tennis played at the highest point of the day. Some matches were going to cross over and one of those involved Jannik Sinner, who was suffering very badly in the third set as he trailed by a break.
The upset at that point looked on course, but Jannik Sinner was perhaps fortunate to have the organisers decide that was the moment they would bring the players off the court and allow the organisers to put the roof in place to control conditions.
The World Number 2 was cramping and his team were highly concerned, but being able to head off the court and just take in the pickle juice and electrolytes to rebuild his strength proved to be crucial. While never being completely comfortable, Jannik Sinner was able to come through in four sets and the defending Champion will be hoping he can now really settle into the tournament.
It was the case when the won the title at Wimbledon back in July- he was trailing 2-0 in sets when Grigor Dimitrov picked up an injury that forced him to withdraw when looking the much stronger player and Jannik Sinner benefited by going on to win the event in SW19.
Jannik Sinner will feel there is room for improvement on the serve, which is going to be important in the second half of this tournament, but he is returning very well and that should give him the edge in this Fourth Round match. The fitness should not be an issue for Sinner after coming through some testing moments and he will have something of a mental edge against a compatriot.
An unexpected run to the Fourth Round will have given Luciano Darderi confidence, but it is still very difficult to ignore the overall record on the hard courts over the last couple of years.
Luciano Darderi has been serving well in Melbourne, but this is an opponent who will present a very difficult test for him.
It also means the World Number 25 will be under pressure to try and get into the Sinner service games if he is being put under the cosh on his own serve and this is a considerable increase in level of opponent compared with the players Luciano Darderi has beaten at the Australian Open.
When he played Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open in the Third Round, Luciano Darderi was not able to maintain a level to give the eventual Champion something to think about.
He was good enough to be competitive within a set, but Luciano Darderi may struggle to stick with Jannik Sinner much as he did against Alcaraz and the top Italian player on the ATP Tour can cover a big line.
Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Xinyu Wang: This will be the fourth time Amanda Anisimova will be competing in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but the American has yet to make it through to the Quarter Final.
Despite reaching the last two Grand Slam Finals, Amanda Anisimova will be fairly comfortable that the attention of the sports writers for the women's tournament in Melbourne have focused on other names. The World Number 4 will be happy to continue her surge in the tournament without having to deal with additional pressure and Amanda Anisimova is playing at a decent level.
Peaking too early in a Grand Slam event is always a concern for players, but it does feel like Amanda Anisimova has some gears to go through, although she may not necessarily need them in this Fourth Round clash.
At the end of this tournament, Xinyu Wang will be back inside the top 40 of the World Rankings and another upset in the Fourth Round would mean setting a new career best mark.
She beat the World Number 13 in the Third Round, but over the last twelve months, Xinyu Wang has come up short when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. To her credit, she did give Elina Svitolina something to think about in losing the Auckland Final before getting the better of Linda Noskova in the last Round at this tournament, but Wang had been pretty well beaten in other matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in the months prior to these last results.
Recent form cannot be dismissed and Xinyu Wang is dangerous playing with her current level of confidence, although the second serve is a vulnerability.
This has also been something of an issue for Amanda Anisimova in her three wins at the Australian Open, although the higher Ranked player has been very convincing when her first serve has landed. She has also been seeing the ball very well as proven by the strong returning numbers produced and that may give her the edge in this Fourth Round match and a chance to pull away and cover a big spread.
A competitive set will also be expected where Xinyu Wang is able to get enough from her own first serve, but the overall expectation is that Amanda Anisimova is able to exert her strengths on the Fourth Round match and she can find the breaks of serve that she will need to get over this line.
MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Vctor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 29-17, + 12 Units (94 Units Staked, + 12.77% Yield)
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