The opening two Rounds at the Australian Open could not have worked out much better for the Tennis Picks made, but this is not the time to take anything for granted.
Things could quickly look very different with the Day 6 schedule looking loaded with options, but the selection process has been working well.
As is always going to be the case in a sport with the finest of fine margins, a bit of luck has been needed to help produce the strong numbers opening up the 2026 season.
Hopefully that fortune is not going to desert the Picks with more than a week yet to be played in Melbourne as the Third Round gets underway on Friday.
In the main, the top names have moved through the draw, but Belinda Bencic was upset on Day 5 and there will be plenty of players heading towards the second week believing they could do the same against higher Ranked opponents.
Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 games v Corentin Moutet: The top two players on the ATP Tour look clear of the World Number 3 and beyond and so it is no surprise that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are asked to cover some very big lines early in the Grand Slam events.
It is tough to do that, especially at the lines set for those players, but this one has come in slightly as we move into the Third Round.
In the previous two Rounds, Carlos Alcaraz has dismissed the World Number 81 and 102, but this time the competition is expected to be more challenging when taking on Corentin Moutet, the current World Number 37. A strong run through the first quarter of the season would put the Frenchman in a position to be Seeded when the French Open comes around in May, and he will be trending back towards the top 30 of the World Rankings at the end of this tournament.
Of course, upsetting the World Number 1 and top Seed in the tournament would really open things up for Moutet and everyone in the top half of the draw, but that feels like a tall task.
As much as you do want to give credit to Moutet for getting everything out of his career, this is a big talent gap to bridge and it is hard to imagine the lower Ranked player having the weapons needed to upset Carlos Alcaraz.
He plays with style and flair, as many would expect from a French player, but Corentin Moutet has a vulnerable serve and that will put a lot of pressure on him throughout this contest. It feels important to note that Moutet has played five top 20 Ranked opponents in Grand Slams on the hard courts, but he has lost every one of those matches and struggled to have a telling impact on the serve.
In 2025, Corentin Moutet won around 61% of service points played in hard court matches, but he will not have come up against someone of the quality of Carlos Alcaraz too many times.
When only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Corentin Moutet's service percentage points won dips to 57% and this should be a relatively comfortable match up for the top Seed.
We have yet to really see Carlos Alcaraz anywhere near his best and all eyes have been on the Spaniard to see how he has reacted to an unexpected decision to part ways with Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. The reality is that the Spaniard has not really been forced to work too hard and he has won by eight game margins in both of the opening matches played in Melbourne without having to break much of a sweat.
This has been the weakest of the Grand Slams for Carlos Alcaraz so far in his career, which may also be a factor with early nerves, but the two wins should begin to build momentum.
As long as he continues to serve as well as he has, Carlos Alcaraz should be able to keep a lid on the threat from the other side of the court.
In his career, Carlos Alcaraz is 32-2 in Grand Slam matches on the hard courts against players Ranked outside of the top 20 and his numbers have been really impressive. This feels like an opportunity to produce his best effort in Melbourne in 2026 and Carlos Alcaraz may have the return game to cover this big line.
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: The key to having continued success at Grand Slam level events is getting through the early Rounds without wasting energy, especially on the men's side of the tournament in the best of five set format.
Both of these players have been able to do that ahead of what is expected to be a prime time Third Round match, although Frances Tiafoe made slightly more awkward work of his Second Round match than was needed. Coming through in four sets is still important and he only spent a little more than three hours on the court, even if Tiafoe was looking a little fatigued at times.
That is far from ideal if there is any lingering fitness issues ahead of a match against Alex De Minaur, who also needed four sets to come through the Second Round match, but who was cruising at the end.
The home fans are going to be right behind their man and Alex De Minaur is very sure of his fitness and ability to stay out on the court for as long as needed. His style also works well against Frances Tiafoe with De Minaur capable of getting his opponent to have to dig in and win rallies multiple times in order to earn a single point.
It can be frustrating, while Alex De Minaur is continuing his development in order to challenge the very best players on the Tour.
Ultimately it has meant coming up short at the Quarter Final Round when it comes to the Grand Slams, but Alex De Minaur has been consistent enough to reach the last eight in five of the last seven Grand Slam events played. Twelve months ago he made the Quarter Final at the Australian Open for the first time and De Minaur is very comfortable on this surface.
The serve has improved and Alex De Minaur has made full use of that shot when not facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This now backs up his strong return game and De Minaur could give Frances Tiafoe plenty of problems, much as he has in the past meetings on the Tour.
The American will have to serve well and then hope he can build up some scoreboard pressure- Frances Tiafoe has struggled for consistency behind that shot, which has contributed to slip in the World Ranking, while that has also meant more pressure on his own serve.
Over the last year, Frances Tiafoe is also 1-7 when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and he has won less than 60% of his service points played in those matches. The return has remained steady compared with his overall numbers, even against the top players, but it is very hard to continue to have to break serve to merely stick with those names and this could be a problem again.
It says something that Tiafoe has only held 69% of service games played against Alex De Minaur compared with a 83% mark for the latter in the head to head.
Unsurprisingly it has led to the Australian winning four of the five previous matches between the players, including Alex De Minaur beating Frances Tiafoe at the US Open in four sets in 2018.
They did meet in a keenly contested match in Canada on the hard courts back in August, but Alex De Minaur found the breaks of serve needed and the feeling is that he can cover this spread even if dropping a set.
Learner Tien - 1.5 sets v Nuno Borges: Earlier this month, 20 year old American Learner Tien entered the top 30 in the World Rankings for the first time and that has meant a Seeding for the Australian Open.
Credit has to be given to him for backing that up by reaching the Third Round in Melbourne and the draw has opened up to give Learner Tien the chance of reaching the second week here. He did that on debut twelve months ago when making it through to the Fourth Round, but the next three Grand Slam events did not go nearly as well, which means Tien is in a position to take a big jump in the World Rankings over the next eleven months.
Learnier Tien did not have a lot of success in the warm up event for the Australian Open, but he is very comfortable on the hard courts and the ones here in Melbourne seem to really suit.
After needing five sets to beat a veteran compatriot in the First Round, Learner Tien was a much more dominant winner in the Second Round and that should mean the youngster has plenty in the tank.
However, he will need to be on his game considering the next opponent is the reason this portion of the draw has opened up.
Nuno Borges upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in five sets in the First Round and he backed that up by beating a home favourite in the Second. Eighteen months ago, Nuno Borges was a top 30 Ranked player and he has been a solid hard court player and one that can spring a surprise if being overlooked.
The numbers have not really been much to write home about over the last couple of years on the hard courts and Nuno Borges has a 40-34 win-loss record. He was just 3-2 in warm up events in anticipation of the Australian Open, but Borges will have taken confidence from the wins he has produced here.
A challenge for Nuno Borges is to be more competitive against a top 50 Ranked opponent on this surface and he is just 2-11 in hard court matches against such opponents over the last twelve months. He has not been able to get much out of his return game in those matches and the World Number 46 has simply not handled the pressure on the serve when having little impact on the other side of the net.
One of those losses was in straight sets to Learner Tien at the Paris Masters.
That is an indoor hard court event, but Tien will have taken a lot of confidence from the way he was able to contain Nuno Borges behind the serve and that could be the case again on Friday in this Third Round meeting.
The best Grand Slam runs that Nuno Borges has put together have been at the Australian Open and he did take a set from Carlos Alcaraz twelve months ago.
This has to be respected, but Learner Tien is an improving player on the Tour and should have enough to reach the second week behind a three or four set win.
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: Winning a second Grand Slam title is the motivation that gets Daniil Medvedev out of bed every morning and he will feel that he should have been able to add to the 2021 US Open title by winning at least once in Melbourne.
Between 2021 and 2024, Daniil Medvedev reached the Final at the Australian Open in three out of four events run and he will have nightmares about the 2022 Final. He had led by two sets and a break against Rafael Nadal and had all of the momentum, but somehow things were allowed to slip away and Daniil Medvedev had to settle for a Runner Up trophy.
The World Number 12 has had his most success on the hard courts at Grand Slam level, but twelve months ago he was upset in the Second Round in Melbourne.
Little did Daniil Medvedev know that it would have been his best Grand Slam result of the year having been ousted in the First Round in Paris, London and New York City and so his two wins in the 2026 Australian Open have given him some confidence. These wins arrive after opening the season by capturing the title in Brisbane and so there is a real belief in the Medvedev game, even if he can still have those lapses of concentration that lead to dropped sets.
Only two sets have been dropped in seven wins to open 2026 and so Daniil Medvedev will go into this Third Round match as a strong favourite.
However, he will not be able to overlook Fabian Marozsan who has solid hard court numbers and who reached the Semi Final in Auckland in the build up to the opening Grand Slam of the season. Like his opponent, Marozsan has only dropped a single set in his run to the Third Round, but over the last twelve months, he has lost six of seven hard court matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents.
In those matches, Fabian Marozsan has struggled to make much of an impact on the return of serve and that has put some pressure on his own delivery. He has held 77% of service games played against some of the best players on the Tour, but that is not quite good enough and especially not in a best of five set format with more time afforded to the top players to 'get a read' on the serve.
Making it more challenging for the underdog is that he is facing Daniil Medvedev for the third time in the last eighteen months and both previous matches have been on hard courts.
They had a more competitive meeting at the US Open in 2024 than the final scoreline would suggest, but Daniil Medvedev was much more dominant when facing Fabian Marozsan in Almaty in October.
The higher Ranked player has held 83% of service games played in the two previous matches, but Daniil Medvedev has broken in 44% of return games and that is a considerable edge.
A poor year on the hard courts were littered with some disappointing defeats as far as Daniil Medvedev was concerned in 2025, but his numbers remained strong against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20. With the insight into the underdog's game in this one, Daniil Medvedev is expected to find a way to power through to the second week of the tournament and get his Ranking moving back towards the top 10 where he feels he belongs.
Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: Comments made by a debutant from the Ukraine have made a big impact at the Australian Open after criticisms aimed at the Belarusian and Russian players that are being allowed to continue to take part on the Tour.
The focus was made on some of the leading players on both the WTA and ATP Tours, but Aryna Sabalenka was particularly targeted for criticism and is perhaps going to be overshadowing the rest of the tournament.
The World Number 1 has tried not to get too involved in the back and forth with another player, but Aryna Sabalenka is likely going to be asked about an issue she would have hoped she has been addressing time and time again. While the war continues in Eastern Europe, it is impossible for people to completely ignore the matter, but Sabalenka and the Tours would have hoped their decisions made a couple of years ago would have at least closed some of the debate.
For now the World Number 1 has to try and focus on the court and she has been THE dominant player on the hard courts in recent Grand Slams- Aryna Sabalenka had won twice in a row in Melbourne before losing in the Final twelve months ago, but she made it consecutive successes in New York City in September 2025 having lost the Final in 2023.
She has moved through the first couple of Rounds with ease and Aryna Sabalenka is likely to be much more comfortable facing Anastasia Potapova in the Third Round, rather than Emma Raducanu.
In two previous matches on the Tour, Aryna Sabalenka has crushed this opponent and the likelihood is that the top Seed is going to have too much firepower again.
Anastasia Potapova is the World Number 55 and is a solid hard court performer, although she will need to be a lot better than solid if she is going to even give Aryna Sabalenka something to think about.
She has particularly struggled when facing top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and the power of the opponent is likely going to lead to another relatively straight-forward win.
The spread is one that can quickly go wrong when backing the favourite, but Aryna Sabalenka has dominated behind serve in the two clay court matches against Anastasia Potapova and will be expecting to get even more from that shot on this surface.
Add in the number of breaks produced in those two wins and Sabalenka looks on course for another appearance in the second week in Melbourne behind a strong win.
Karolina Muchova - 4.5 games v Magda Linette: There are a couple of players on the WTA Tour who have gotten close to winning a Major, but who have to believe that time may be running out of they are going to finally pick up a Grand Slam title.
One of those is the World Number 19 Karolina Muchova, but she fought her way through the Second Round and that may give her confidence to have another deep run.
She has previously been a Quarter Finalist at all four Grand Slams and has reached the Semi Final at both the Australian Open and US Open. In 2023, Karolina Muchova came up short in the French Open Final, but this is a player that can produce on all surfaces and her record in Melbourne will be a source of disappointment.
In the last three seasons, Karolina Muchova has twice made the US Open Semi Final and once the Quarter Final, but a couple of Second Round exits have been the best results at the Australian Open. In fact, prior to this season, Muchova had won just two matches in Melbourne since making the Semi Final in 2021, but she has doubled that in 2026 and the Czech player is a strong favourite in this Third Round contest.
Next up is Magda Linette who has only been beyond the Third Round once in her career at Grand Slam level.
It will help the confidence that her best result was right here at the Australian Open when Linette had a stunning run to the Semi Final, but the 33 year old had a poor year on the hard courts in 2025.
Upsetting Emma Navarro has gotten her Australian Open run going, and there has to be some respect for the fact that Magda Linette has tended to produce her best tennis against the better opponents she has faced over the last twelve months, The 4-3 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts deserves plenty of plaudits, but the World Number 50 has been operating on fine margins in those matches and the sub-40% number of points won on the return against those top players is a concern.
Over the last twelve months, Karolina Muchova has shown plenty of confidence behind the serve and she should be the stronger return player in this match.
Three wins in a row against Magda Linette on the Tour suggests the higher Ranked player matches up pretty well with this opponent and the dominant scores in those three wins adds to that belief.
The most recent meeting was in June 2024 on the grass courts and Karolina Muchova showed off her superior return player in that match.
We could see something similar here with Muchova moving onto the second week in Melbourne for just the second time in her career.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Learner Tien - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 17-7, + 14.48 Units (48 Units Staked, + 30.17% Yield)
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