We may have gotten down to the Australian Open Semi Final with the top four men's Seeds all still in action, but most fans will believe the World Number 1 and 2 are going to have too much for experienced opponents.
The last three Grand Slam Finals have been a match up between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner and they are clear favourites to meet in the Sunday showpiece.
However, out of the two opponents, it does feel like Alexander Zverev can offer some resistance against Carlos Alcaraz as long as he can put together a decent serving day.
Novak Djokovic fans may believe destiny is driving his run to the Semi Final having had some fortune in Melbourne, but his level has dipped significantly from his peak days dominating the Tour. It was really good to hear Djokovic giving a journalist some pushback having received a pretty disrespectful line of questioning, but the 38 year old has to be significantly better than Wednesday if he is going to find a way to upset Jannik Sinner in the other Semi Final.
Carlos Alcaraz-Alexander Zverev over 35.5 games: You could easily come to the conclusion that Carlos Alcaraz is a multiple time Champion at Melbourne Park after watching him ease past Alex De Minaur in the Quarter Final.
Instead, the World Number 1 was winning a Quarter Final at the Australian Open for the first time and in doing so was also ending the hopes of the home fans in seeing a men's winner at the event for the first time in fifty years.
Carlos Alcaraz is now two wins away from becoming the youngest men's player to complete the career Grand Slam, but he will have a lot of respect for the opponent in front of him.
Despite both being in the top three of the World Rankings, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev only met once in 2025 and that ended in a routine win for the Spaniard on the fast courts of Cincinnati back in August. That levelled up the career head to head between the players, but also means Alcaraz has won four of the seven matches since joining the elite on the Tour with a couple of the early losses at a time when the Spaniard was making his way up the World Rankings.
The three losses in that time underline the danger that Alexander Zverev does pose with a big serve backed up by enough on the ground to believe he can cause the upset.
It is the serve that has been a crucial weapon for Alexander Zverev in this tournament and the World Number 3 has long been comfortable playing in Melbourne. Last year he came up short in the Final, but Zverev continues to insist he is at his best health-wise right now and the German holds a win over Carlos Alcaraz on this court in the Quarter Final played two years ago.
Taking Alexander Zverev at face value with his assessment on his own health makes it understandable that the hard court numbers dipped as much as they did in 2025 and he will be well aware that he needs to serve very well to win this match.
This was the main reason he was able to hold off Learner Tien in the Quarter Final, while it was a big reason why Alexander Zverev was able to beat Carlos Alcaraz here a couple of years ago.
Of course the challenge for every player chasing the top two in the World Rankings is whether they can play at a high level for long enough to remain competitive.
Carlos Alcaraz looks to be getting stronger as this tournament progresses and he has not dropped a set in the last two Rounds against Tommy Paul and Alex De Minaur. He has admitted working on the serve and that has seen him dominate behind that shot, while Alcaraz has won two of the last three hard court matches against this opponent.
The layers are expecting a straight-forward win for Carlos Alcaraz with the favoured scoreline being 3-0 in sets, while he has been asked to cover the same line that was in place for his Quarter Final match.
However, that does all feel a little disrespectful to Alexander Zverev who can make use of the conditions to get the maximum out of his serve.
He will have to begin this match with some confidence just to make sure he does not allow a frontrunner like Carlos Alcaraz to move through the gears.
As long as Alexander Zverev can continue to serve at the clip he has been in Melbourne, he has every chance of making this a competitive Semi Final and the two players may put enough games on the board to surpass this total.
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Novak Djokovic: The top four Seeds in the men's tournament have made it through to the Semi Final, but the two players competing in this one will feel they have had a bit of fortune on their side to make it through to the final four of the opening Grand Slam event of the season.
In the Third Round, Jannik Sinner looked to be cramping up and not being able to physically deal with the challenging conditions as he trailed by a break in the third set. Fortunately the heat rule was applied by the tournament organisers right at that point, which meant playing under a roof with controlled conditions and, most importantly, allowing the World Number 2 to just take in the liquid needed to get back somewhere close to full health.
He was fortunate at Wimbledon last year as well and Sinner took full advantage by winning his first title at that Grand Slam and the Italian has breezed past his last two opponents to take his place in the Semi Final here again.
So the defending Champion will be thankful, but there is so much more for Novak Djokovic to be thankful about as he looks to win a record twenty-fifth Grand Slam title.
Over the last eighteen months, Novak Djokovic has come to terms with the fact that beating both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz is going to be incredibly tough for him at this stage of his career- he has admitted he needs to get through the early Rounds of a Grand Slam as easily as possible to have enough in reserve to beat either of the top two players in the world, never mind knowing that he likely would have to beat both.
After coming through three opening wins easily, Novak Djokovic benefited from a walkover in the Fourth Round, which most have seen as a positive for him.
Even more luck was needed in the Quarter Final as Novak Djokovic admitted himself in the post-match interviews.
He was down 2-0 in sets against Lorenzo Musetti in that Quarter Final and looking unable to turn the tide with the Italian dominating, but an injury early in the third set meant the match came to an abrupt stop just four games into that set. Novak Djokovic was gracious enough to admit he felt he was 'going home', but he has made it through and some will think he is 'destined' to win at an event he has previously won ten times.
Novak Djokovic cannot keep hoping for some 'divine intervention', but he remains active at the Australian Open and that makes him a danger.
However, it is hard to imagine the last time Novak Djokovic would have been 8-1 to win a tennis match and that just underlines the gap that has developed between the long time dominant Champion and the two leading the ATP these days.
Last year, Novak Djokovic did upset Carlos Alcaraz here in Melbourne so his chances cannot be dismissed, but he has lost five matches in a row against Jannik Sinner, including at both the French Open and Wimbledon last year. Not only did Djokovic lose those matches, but he did not win a set, while even playing at his favourite Grand Slam might not make much of a difference when noting that he was crushed in four sets by Jannik Sinner here just two years ago.
The Novak Djokovic serve is declining from the level he once produced and he is no longer the best return player on the Tour, although his place in history is firmly secure for now.
These are things that Jannik Sinner just does better than Novak Djokovic in January 2026 and the World Number 2 has not dropped his serve in the last couple of Rounds. The feeling is that he is going to keep Djokovic under some pressure, while also being able to get his teeth into the return games more effectively than the Old King, and Jannik Sinner may end up producing a routine win like the one he did against the Serb in the Wimbledon Semi Final last July.
He broke the Novak Djokovic serve five times in that match and the way Lorenzo Musetti was able to break down that part of the Djokovic game will certainly offer Jannik Sinner plenty of encouragement.
It feels really wrong to be asking Jannik Sinner to cover this spread line against an opponent who has won the Australian Open ten times, but it does feel that time has gotten the better of Novak Djokovic and one of the top two players in the world can underline the difference at this stage of their careers.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz-Alexander Zverev Over 35.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 35-22, + 12.48 Units (118 Units Staked, + 10.92% Yield)
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