It has been a remarkable season and we are now just hours away from learning which two teams will be heading to the home of the San Francisco 49ers to compete for the Super Bowl.
Injuries have been a big factor throughout the 2025 season and those continue to have a big impact on the outlook for teams, even this late into the year.
The Denver Broncos lost their starting Quarter Back in the win over the Buffalo Bills, while the Seattle Seahawks have a Quarter Back fighting through the pain. Offensive Linemen and Defensive Linemen absentees can be so important at this time of the season when winning at the Line of Scrimmage is so very important.
Both Championship Games to be played on Sunday are intriguing with the factors around them, but it still feels like the winner of the NFC Championship will be a big favourite to win it all in two weeks time.
The AFC Champion is going to have something to say about that, but the focus has to be on the opponent in front of each team this Sunday and both games look like they can produce drama.
It has been a difficult season for the NFL Picks after a decent last few years, but my thoughts on the Conference Championship Games can be read below.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: There was some controversy attached to the end of the Denver Broncos (15-3) win over the Buffalo Bills with a long debate over whether the road team should have been awarded a catch in Overtime that would have put them in a position to win the game. If the decision on the field had ruled Brandin Cooks down with the ball, there would unlikely have been an overturn on the review, but that is in the books and it is the Broncos who will be hosting the AFC Championship Game as the Number 1 Seed.
Fans would have left the Stadium in buoyant mood, but that would have changed very quickly.
Quarter Back Bo Nix was quickly ruled out for the season having suffered an injury on the penultimate play of the Divisional Round win over the Bills.
All of a sudden, the Denver Broncos are going to be heading into the Conference Championship Game with a backup at the most important position of any sport.
Making it all the more challenging is that Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a pass in the NFL since Week 18 of the 2023 regular season.
Head Coach Sean Payton is backing his Quarter Back to come in and do what is needed for the Denver Broncos and there will be plenty of respect for Stidham on the other sideline considering he was Drafted into the League by the New England Patriots (16-3).
He played under the guidance of Josh McDaniels and that should help the Patriots plan for what they may see from a Quarter Back that is the first since 1972 to have his first start of a season in the Conference Championship Game.
Josh McDaniels will be passing all of the data over to the New England Defensive unit, but he will also be focusing on making sure Drake Maye and company have a good plan to deal with what has been one of the top Defensive units in the NFL.
The Patriots have done just enough Offensively, but the run through to the Championship Round has been based on the performance on the other side of the ball. Drake Maye has had a very strong season at Quarter Back, but his two Playoff appearances this season have been erratic to say the least and he has to make sure he has better control of the football when he is being hit.
Turnovers could be a huge part of the outcome of this AFC Championship Game and so the Quarter Back has to be careful.
He will be looking to lean on the New England rushing attack, which has been operating well, and there looks to be an advantage on the Line of Scrimmage in favour of the Patriots. For much of the season the Broncos have been very good at stopping the run, but they have struggled towards the end of the regular season and into the Playoffs and keeping Drake Maye in front of the chains would give the Number 2 Seed a real advantage.
Third and manageable compared with third and long will be a huge difference for the New England Offensive unit.
Putting Maye in a position where he can make quick throws to keep the chains moving would be a distinct advantage, but holding onto the ball too long will allow the Denver pass rush to have a big impact in the contest. The Patriots Offensive Line have been very good at establishing the run, but the pass blocking has been something of a weakness and Drake Maye will not want to attempt to attack this Denver Secondary with the pocket collapsing around him.
You have to imagine the Broncos Defensive players have been focused this week in producing their absolute best to give the injury hit Offensive unit a boost.
They look capable of at least slowing down the New England Offense, which has not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in the two Playoff wins, and that will give Jarrett Stidham an opportunity.
It would not surprise anyone if Sean Payton has a solid plan for his backup, but you have to believe the Broncos are going to want to get behind this Offensive Line and at least make sure they can establish the run.
JK Dobbins looks set to miss out again, which is another blow for the Offense, and the Broncos will have noted how effective this New England Defensive Line have been at playing the run in recent games. They have made things very difficult for the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans and so the game plan may be to get Jarrett Stidham comfortable and ask him to make some quick, easy throws to settle in, especially while New England anticipate plenty of early runs.
Head Coach Mike Vrabel has really put together a strong Defensive unit and they have a team that will feel they can shut down the Broncos.
If they can keep Denver in third and long, the New England Secondary will be full of confidence and belief in their Secondary having made Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud look very ordinary. They have also been turning the ball over with great success in the two Playoff wins, although Jarrett Stidham may be given a bit more protection behind the Denver Offensive Line than either Herbert or Stroud were afforded.
Those Interceptions being created by the Patriots have to be respected and New England do look capable of winning this one on the road.
However, there have only ever been 10 Road Favourites of 4 or more points in the Conference Championship Round and those teams are a perfect imperfect 0-10 against the spread.
Hosts that have been set as the underdog are on a 14-3 run against the spread in the NFL Playoffs over the last decade too.
Good teams do have a habit of stepping up their level to offer as much support as possible to a backup Quarter Back, while Denver are hosting, which should also be a big help.
Most are going to back the New England Patriots against Jarrett Stidham, but this Broncos Defensive unit can make this a low-scoring, competitive affair and that makes the points being given to the hosts appealing. The AFC hosts have tended to be the stronger at covering the spread in the Championship Game and the Denver Broncos will have a point to prove after the injury to Bo Nix and can keep this one close thanks to the Defensive unit going up against Drake Maye and company.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: For the third time this season, the Seattle Seahawks (15-3) and Los Angeles Rams (14-5) face off, but this time with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.
If the previous two games are anything to go by, this is going to be an exciting, competitive contest that will come down to the final snap of the ball.
The Los Angeles Rams beat Seattle by 2 points when hosting them earlier in the season, but the most recent game in Week 16 of the regular season saw the Seahawks recover from a big deficit and earn a home win. This ultimately led to them finishing with the Number 1 record in the NFC and is the reason that the Seattle Seahawks host the Championship Game.
You want to know how competitive the games were in the regular season? The Rams had a single point advantage in the two games played and just ONE Offensive yard more than the Seahawks.
Seattle had been favoured when hosting in Week 16 and they are going into the Championship Game as a slightly stronger favourite- they played on Saturday in the Divisional Round and so have an extra day of rest, while the Rams had a very tough road game on Sunday that they could have easily lost in Overtime in frigid temperatures in Chicago.
That has been factored into the spread, while the Seahawks are also holding home advantage, which has been a key to the outcome of the majority of recent Conference Championship Games.
However, things are not exactly going smoothly for Seattle- Quarter Back Sam Darnold is playing through an injury, while Running Back Zach Charbonnet has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury suffered in the blowout of the San Francisco 49ers. There are still some issues on the Offensive Line, even though Charles Cross is back in practice to protect Darnold's blindside, and this is a match up that has been tough for Seattle in two regular season meetings.
Kenneth Walker III had a big outing at Running Back behind a powerful Seattle Offensive Line, but he will have a different test without his partner to come in and give him some time to rest. This week Walker III is also running against the Los Angeles Defensive Line, which is much stronger than the one he was facing last week, although the Seahawks will have confidence they can establish the Running Back.
This looks to be an important factor in the outcome of the game, especially as we are still not sure how healthy Sam Darnold is at Quarter Back- the Divisional Round blowout of the 49ers began very early and so Darnold was not under much pressure to drop back and throw the ball, but it is unlikely to be that comfortable in this game agains the Rams.
Any time Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are in third and long, the Rams pass rush is likely going to put the Quarter Back under significant pressure and that has not always been a position in which Darnold has thrived. There have been holes in the Rams Secondary that have been exploited in this Playoff run, which have been exploited by Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, but Seattle are a run first Offensive unit and the main ambition for Sam Darnold is to avoid giving this game away.
Instead he will be happy to play the field position and lean on a fantastic Seattle Defense that has continued to perform at a top level all season.
In recent games, the Seahawks Defensive Line have proved to be stout at clamping down on the run, while the Secondary have stepped in front of passes and turned the ball over.
However, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams have a potent passing game and talented Receivers who will feel they can break clear of some of the Defenders to be faced and offer up passing lanes down the field. Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a finger issue and Sean McVay admitted he did not give his Offensive unit the best game plan to deal with the Chicago Bears, but both are expected to be improved on Sunday.
Giving the Rams most confidence is the fact that they put up almost 600 Offensive yards and Matthew Stafford had over 450 passing yards in the narrow loss in this Stadium in Week 16.
They did blow that lead, but it will offer Stafford and company encouragement about what they can do in the Championship Game and he will also have Davante Adams available for this one. That gives the Rams another crease on the Offensive side of the ball and Los Angeles do have a very good balance in the team.
If the spread moved to the key number 3, it would be an easy choice to back the Los Angeles Rams in what should be another game that comes down to the wire.
On the current line, the Rams still look worthy of being selected with the points they are being given, but it could come down to a final Field Goal and it is a dangerous line.
NFC home teams are just 8-10 against the spread in the Championship Game, while home teams facing Divisional rivals are just 13-17 against the spread.
Blowing out the San Francisco 49ers will have caught the eye, but everything went right for the Seahawks from the opening kick off and NFL teams that have won home games by at least 35 points are 14-26-1 against the spread in the next game played.
There has been so little between the teams throughout the course of the season that it feels unlikely to be much different on Sunday so the points being given to the Los Angeles Rams looks the best play.
MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Divisional: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)
Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)
Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)
Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)
Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)
Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)
Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)
Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
2025 Season: 50-65, - 20.31 Units (115 Units Staked, - 17.66% Yield)
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