The opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season has now reached the last four days and that means the spotlight will shine on the Singles tournaments on different days.
On Thursday and Saturday it will be the leading ladies who take centre stage with the two Semi Finals played on the Night Session before the Saturday showpiece Final.
On Friday and Sunday it will be the turn of the men and it may take a brave person to back against seeing the Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Grand Slam Final for the fourth Major in a row. Players like Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic will be hoping experience can give them an edge, but it is a big ask and the two leading male player on the Tour continue to dominate.
Before all of that we get into the women's Semi Final matches and both offer some intrigue.
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina know what it takes to get over the line, but Jessica Pegula is a former US Open Finalist and Elina Svitolina will feel that she has already overachieved since returning to the Tour. Of course the latter is being fuelled further by off court events taking place back in her homeland and that is going to be the backdrop to her Semi Final with the World Number 1, while also meaning the latter will be playing with plenty of motivation of her own knowing how some of her peers feel about her presence on the Tour.
The second Semi Final should be another fun match between Pegula and Rybakina and my Picks from both last four matches can be read below.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: You cannot ignore the political backdrop to this Australian Open Semi Final when Aryna Sabalenka takes on Elina Svitolina. It has been a tournament filled with questions being asked of the American players about political upheaval taking place back in the United States, while a different Ukrainian player made headlines early at the Australian Open when criticising some of the top Russian and Belarusian athletes on the Tour.
There is not going to be a handshake before or after this match, but both Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina will be very respectful of what the other brings on the court. Added motivation cannot be ignored on both sides of the net and it is going to be very important for the two competitors to keep a lid on the emotions if they are going to find a way to compete in the Final of the opening Grand Slam of the season.
While impossible to ignore issues off of the court, the focus here has to be on how the two have matched up with each other.
Both have to be credited for maintaining unbeaten runs through the opening month of the season which has led to each winning a title, while the performances within the Australian Open have also been impressive.
Aryna Sabalenka has beaten a couple of young, developing stars of the WTA Tour in the last two Rounds, but Elina Svitolina will be the highest Ranked player she will have faced in Melbourne this year. Previously that match would have been against World Number 16 Victoria Mboko, but inexperience would still have been. factor in that Fourth Round match and now Sabalenka is facing someone returning to the top 10 of the World Rankings and who has plenty of Grand Slam experience.
Not only that, but Elina Svitolina is much more battle-hardened having beaten three players Ranked inside the top 22, while also having back to back top 10 wins. Those last two victories over Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff came in matches when Elina Svitolina did not drop a set and she produced some high quality tennis to make sure neither Andreeva nor Gauff could get a foothold into those matches.
There is still a mental obstacle to overcome as Elina Svitolina has not reached a Grand Slam Final before, but the run to the Semi Final here means her record in Majors is as successful post-motherhood as it was before she took her leave of absence from the Tour.
This is the first Grand Slam Semi Final since Elina Svitolina's surprising run at Wimbledon 2023, while the style of play has changed with the 31 year old looking to be more aggressive in her tennis. This has been evident here in Melbourne with Svitolina using the serve very well, especially when it comes to protecting the second serve, and Svitolina has really had a lot of success on the return.
She may have played some high Ranked opponents, but that has not stopped Svitolina from winning 52% of return points played, while she has broken at least four times in every match at Melbourne Park.
Of course it has to be noted that this time Elina Svitolina will be facing one of the best servers on the WTA Tour in Aryna Sabalenka and the World Number 1 has been particularly effective at winning a few more points behind the second serve. She may also feel there is room for improvement on the points won behind the first serve, but Aryna Sabalenka looks to be peaking at the right time.
Much like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka's control of the serve has allowed her to play with aggression on the return and she has also been very effective at winning those points to keep the pressure on the opponent.
It does feel like this Semi Final will come down to which of the two players is most effective at looking after the second serve.
In recent meetings between the players, it is Aryna Sabalenka who has just been able to play the bigger points more effectively and her power has been telling on the return.
The majority of the previous matches have been on the clay courts, which is a surface on which Elina Svitolina may feel she can cause more problems for the World Number 1.
In two previous hard court matches, Aryna Sabalenka's first serve has made the difference, including in the first of those when the younger player was much lower in the World Rankings. The hard court match in Cincinnati in August 2024 was dominated by Sabalenka and the feeling is that she has the serving prowess to avoid the kind of capitulation suffered by Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final.
The blueprint to attack the Elina Svitolina serve has been shown in the Round earlier by Mirra Andreeva and you just have to believe that Aryna Sabalenka's comfort on the Melbourne hard courts eventually see her pull away for a solid win and a place in the Australian Open Final for a fourth year in a row.
Elena Rybakina Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve and 5+ Aces v Jessica Pegula: Both Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina came through Quarter Finals in impressive fashion and that makes for a good looking Semi Final between players who have been amongst the best on the Tour for some time.
Both have played Grand Slam Finals, but it is Elena Rybakina who has gotten over the line when winning the title at Wimbledon.
Elena Rybakina also reached the Final right here in Melbourne six months after winning the title at SW19, but she came up short against Aryna Sabalenka in 2023. Since that defeat, her best Grand Slam runs have been at Wimbledon where she has reached the Quarter Final and Semi Final and, somewhat more surprisingly, at the French Open where Elena Rybakina has played in another Quarter Final.
However, despite the very strong hard court numbers over the last couple of seasons, Elena Rybakina has struggled to make the second week at either of the two Slams played on that surface until this strong opening to the 2026 season.
Jessica Pegula had also reached a ceiling in her Grand Slam performances, but broke through to reach the Final at the US Open in 2024 and was a Semi Finalist in New York City back in September. Before 2024, Pegula had played in and been beaten in five Grand Slam Quarter Final matches, which includes in three straight years at the Australian Open.
There had also been signs that this was a player who was becoming a declining force, but the World Number 6 has really impressed in her run to the Semi Final in Australia over the last few days. She has beaten the defending Champion and Jessica Pegula came through a tight second set to beat Amanda Anisimova, who had reached the last two Grand Slam Finals, while also maintaining a run of having yet to drop a set in the tournament.
Her opponent has also come through in straight sets throughout the tournament and overcame a slow start to motor past Iga Swiatek in the Quarter Final, which will have given Elena Rybakina a real boost in confidence.
The serve is proving to be a monster weapon for Rybakina and she has really gotten in to a nice rhythm behind that shot in the last two Rounds as the competition has increased.
It is going to need to be working as well to keep a lid on Jessica Pegula, but Elena Rybakina has to be confident having beaten the American twice on the hard courts in 2025. Both of those wins saw Elena Rybakina have a real edge on the serve and that is likely going to be a key factor in the outcome of this Semi Final, although Jessica Pegula's mental strength can not be dismissed.
The American has been the stronger return player in the tournament, but that has to be expected.
It is the Elena Rybakina second serve that can become a key in making sure that the Kazakhstan representative is not being pushed back early in rallies and she will certainly feel she has the easy power to come through this match.
You have to expect Elena Rybakina's serve to rack up the Ace count in this match- she has been flowing nicely in the last two Rounds and managed to put up 24 Aces in the two wins over Jessica Pegula last year with at least 9 in both wins.
Elena Rybakina also broke at least four times in both matches and she has the capabilities of hitting those marks again.
As mentioned, Rybakina has been finding some stellar rhythm on the serve and Madison Keys managed 4 Aces in her defeat to Jessica Pegula, while the World Number 5 has broken at least four times in each of the last four wins in the tournament.
You have to respect Jessica Pegula's capabilities of digging in and finding a way to turn points and games, which makes the spread dangerous, but putting the Ace count and Breaks of Serve together gives us an odds against quote for Elena Rybakina, who looks the stronger player overall.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve & 5+ Aces @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 33-22, + 8.48 Units (114 Units Staked, + 7.44% Yield)
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