If it wasn't for a couple of late selections just missing the cover at the end of Day 6, it could have been a truly special day for the Tennis Picks made.
Earlier in the day, Daniil Medvedev had come through in five sets and still managed to cover a big spread, so there was some fortune attached, but unfortunately Tommy Paul was not able to complete a big win that he was on course to achieving when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina withdrew after winning two games in two sets.
The Aryna Sabalenka pick looked unlikely to win very early on as she got herself into a trickier match than it should have been, but overall you can never complain when adding more positive numbers to the totals.
On Saturday there is a heatwave set to hit Melbourne, one that has seen the organisers make a decision to move the starting time to an hour earlier than normal so they can get players on and off the court and leave the middle of the day as empty as possible.
It could mean a late night developing as the Third Round comes to a conclusion, but the safety of the participants and the fans has to be high on the list of priorities and the decision made by the Australian Open to try and get matches through before the hottest part of the day is the right one.
Heat is a factor that can change the outlook of any match as we simply don't know how all players will react to what are usually tough conditions in Melbourne.
This has not been the case so far at the tournament, but also means the incoming heatwave is going to have a serious impact and fatiguing issues can take hold.
Hopefully the players picked can find a way to keep battling through those tough moments.
Day 7 is not nearly as loaded with selections as the previous day, but there remain some solid plays on the card and those can be read below.
There is still some consisderable work to get through if this 2026 season is going to have the strong platform that has been set, especially with the second week yet to get underway at the opening Grand Slam of the season.
Taylor Fritz - 6.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: A little over a decade ago, the top of the ATP Tour was dominated by the 'Big Four', which then included Andy Murray alongside the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
That era is now known as the 'Big Three' with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic separating from the pack, but another player who had every right to be spoken alongside the very best on the Tour at that time is Stan Wawrinka.
He may not have reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but Wawrinka won Grand Slam titles at the other three Majors, including at the 2014 Australian Open. He reached the Semi Final on two other occasions in Melbourne, but the former World Number 3 is two months from celebrating his 41st birthday and Stan Wawrinka has announced he will retire at the end of the 2026 season.
With that in mind, Wawrinka was awarded a Wild Card into the main draw at the Australian Open on his retirement tour, but it is clear that the Swiss player is not ready to go quietly.
He came through in four sets in the First Round and then needed to go the full five sets and spend over four and a half hours on the court to win in the Second Round. Neither match was against an opponent Ranked higher than Number 92 and even a day of rest may not be enough for a 40 year old body to recover as it once did.
So not only does Stan Wawrinka have to overcome fatigue and physical ailments in the Third Round, but he is also taking on World Number 9 Taylor Fritz who has made comfortable progression through the first couple of Rounds here.
Taylor Fritz does not have the same storied history at Grand Slam level compared with his veteran opponent, but the American is expected to have a lot more to give and he should be able to wear down the much older opponent.
He has reached the Quarter Final in Melbourne before, but the overall record at the Australian Open is disappointing for Taylor Fritz considering his qualities on the hard courts. One of the main reasons has been a relatively poor return game, but this match up may not be where that aspect of his tennis is exposed, especially if Wawrinka is struggling with his fitness.
Taylor Fritz should be able to contain much of the threat from the other side of the court behind his serve and it should be noted that the return numbers are significantly better against lower Ranked opponents.
Over the last twelve months, the American has suffered a couple of disappointing defeats on the hard courts, but in the main he has tended to get the better of those he will be expected to beat.
You would think twice about this spread if it was a First Round match, but Stan Wawrinka has already invested so much into the tournament that you have to feel he is worn down and cannot keep up on the scoreboard.
He will not want his last memory of playing on the courts in Melbourne to be a retirement mid-match so you have to believe Stan Wawrinka will bite down and try and finish the contest, even if he is hurting and the last set could be where Taylor Fritz can pull away for the win and cover.
Over the last year, Stan Wawrinka has only played four matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface and he has lost each one, while the service numbers have been severely impacted in those defeats. Even a relatively limited return player like Taylor Fritz should be able to get himself into rallies to wear down the veteran and come through with a solid win.
Jakub Mensik - 1.5 sets v Ethan Quinn: Two young players meet in the Australian Open Third Round on Day 7 of the tournament, but there is no doubting that Jakub Mensik is significantly further along in his development than Ethan Quinn.
This is made simple by the difference in World Ranking- the 20 year old Mensik is the World Number 17 and has won a title in Auckland this season, while his opponent is 21 and the World Number 80 who has failed to Qualify in Brisbane before an opening Round defeat in Adelaide.
However, they are in the same position on Saturday in this Third Round match with the opportunity to reach the second week of a Grand Slam a big boost to the career, especially at this early stage for both.
Neither has yet to play in double digit main draws at Grand Slam level and so there is some pressure on both with the chance to reach the Fourth Round for the first time. In reality both are going to feel this is a winnable match, although the stronger claims are certainly on the side of the higher Ranked player.
After coming through in a fifth set decider in the First Round, Jakub Mensik looked very comfortable in the Second Round.
He will have noted the relative ease in which Ethan Quinn has progressed, including in an upset over Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round, but Mensik will believe his serve gives him a big edge in this contest.
The serve is going to be important on both sides of the net, but Ethan Quinn has struggled to impose that shot on top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months. He has been in good form in this tournament with some suggesting conditions are quick in Melbourne, but Quinn will need to bridge a gap to a player that has very strong serving numbers on the hard courts in 2025.
Jakub Mensik is young though and he was upset in the Second Round at the US Open by a player Ranked way outside the top 100.
On that day he failed to deal with the pressurised moments when the big points came around, but Mensik will take plenty of confidence from the fact he beat Ethan Quinn twice last year and once on the hard courts.
In those two meetings, Jakub Mensik won 65% of service points played compared with Ethan Quinn's 57% mark and that led to a significant advantage of games being held. The hard court meeting in Cincinnati saw Jakub Mensik avoid giving up a single Break Point and you just have to favour the player from Czechia to come through at clutch times in this contest.
There is so much more to come from Ethan Quinn, which makes him dangerous, but at this current stage of their respective developments, Jakub Mensik can come through in three or four sets.
Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Marin Cilic: All credit should be given to another veteran continuing to fight his way through the Tour after Marin Cilic made it through to the Third Round at the 2026 Australian Open.
He was a very solid winner in the Second Round when set as the underdog, but Marin Cilic may need to find another gear if he is going to beat a top 20 Ranked opponent and earn a spot in the second week of the tournament.
The serve remains a big weapon for Marin Cilic, although it is a weapon that becomes harder and harder to impose on the better quality of opponent he faces. While his overall numbers in 2025 on the hard courts saw the Croatian hold 85% of service games played, those numbers dip over the last twelve months to 81% when only factoring in matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents.
However, it is the struggles on the return in those six matches that have really caught the eye and makes this a challenging Third Round match for the 37 year old.
Casper Ruud has played in three Grand Slam Finals, including at the 2022 US Open, but his performances at the Australian Open and US Open tournaments since then have been disappointing. The World Number 13 has only reached the second week at either of the Grand Slam tournaments played on hard courts once since reaching the Final in New York City and that despite his overall numbers on the surface improving in the last couple of years.
Two straight sets wins in Melbourne will have given Ruud confidence and his serve is a big weapon on this surface.
He does have one eye on news from back home where his wife is expecting to give birth at any time and Casper Ruud has stated that he will withdraw from the tournament if that happens over the next few days. This has not been a distraction though and instead the Norwegian is using it as motivation, much like Andy Murray once did, which makes Casper Ruud dangerous.
Unlike the very top names on the Tour, Casper Ruud can be guilty of losing in an upset or two and that has happened on the hard courts over the last twelve months, albeit not all that often.
He was beaten by an opponent Ranked outside the top 100 at the US Open a few months ago, but Ruud has won nine of ten matches against players outside of the top 50 on this surface since then. That includes a comfortable win in the First Round and Casper Ruud is expected to get the better of Marin Cilic on Saturday.
In four previous matches on the Tour, Casper Ruud has beaten the veteran each time, including on the hard courts of Stockholm in October.
The scoreline looks competitive, but Casper Ruud dominated the serving numbers and that has been the case in all four meetings against Marin Cilic.
You can never dismiss the veteran from giving the World Number 13 something to think about as a former Finalist in Melbourne, but Casper Ruud should have enough to avoid dropping two or more sets as he progresses to the Fourth Round here for just the second time in his career.
Karen Khachanov - 5.5 games v Luciano Darderi: The Italian has moved up into the top 30 of the World Rankings and that is partly down to a couple of solid, if unspectacular runs at the last couple of Grand Slam tournaments.
In the main, Luciano Darderi has built his World Ranking on strong clay court results, but it has been a tougher task on the hard courts.
Last year he finished with a 6-15 record on this surface, but Luciano Darderi did reach the Third Round at the US Open and he has done the same at the Australian Open, which suggests he may be getting to grips on how to produce on the hard courts.
However, it remains hard to ignore the fact that Darderi has a 9-29 record on the hard courts prior to his two wins in Melbourne.
Fans of the Italian will state that he is 2-4 when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and Luciano Darderi may feel he can play with more freedom when having 'nothing to lose'. Despite the record, the numbers have not been very favourable though and Darderi is going to be an underdog when facing top 20 Ranked Karen Khachanov, who is very happy when playing on this surface.
The 29 year old may have needed five sets to come through his opening match in Melbourne, but Karen Khachanov had been handed a tough draw. There was little concern in the Second Round win and that should mean Khachanov has plenty in the tank as he prepares to reach the second week in Melbourne for the third time in four years.
His serve is always going to be a potent weapon for Karen Khachanov and he will need to serve well if he is going to win this match.
Karen Khachanov has been on the Tour for some time, but he should be comfortable with his ability on the surface against someone who is still getting to complete grips with top quality tennis on the hard courts.
The Russian has produced decent numbers when not facing top 20 Ranked opponents, and winning 68% of service points in those matches on the hard courts and backing that up with breaks in 25% of return games played gives Karen Khachanov a significant edge.
It is perhaps a surprise that Karen Khachanov has been asked to cover a larger spread than the one he was faced in the Second Round, but the strength of that win is a contributory factor.
However, the underlying feeling is that Khachanov has the hard court know-how to find a way to cover even if he needs four sets to win the match.
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Maddison Inglis: This is not the first time that Australian Maddison Inglis has made it through to the Third Round of her home Grand Slam, but in 2022 she was awarded a Wild Card into the tournament.
Four years later, Maddison Inglis entered the Qualifying Rounds for the Australian Open, as has been the case in each of the last three seasons.
The last couple of years have ended in the final Round of Qualifying, but Inglis battled through to the main draw at this event and has continued to dig in to earn another run to the Third Round. This is going to help improve the World Ranking, which currently sits at Number 168, and the Australian has already beaten four players Ranked higher than herself to reach the Third Round.
However, none of the wins have been against anyone Ranked higher than Number 48 and this time Maddison Inglis is taking on a two time former Champion of this event.
Naomi Osaka has not been at her best in the first couple of Rounds, but she has found a way to move through the draw and that is an improvement on some of the early results she had when returning to the Tour. There is certainly more belief within the World Number 17, although Osaka may have to have found a way to ignore the criticisms that have been aimed at her for some of the on-court behaviour in the win over Sorana Cirstea.
She has apologised for what some believed to be gamesmanship and the challenge for Naomi Osaka is remaining focused and not worrying too much about what others may think.
This challenge only increases considering this is likely to be a match played in an atmosphere where the home player is going to be loudly backed by the crowd.
If she can lock in, Naomi Osaka should have too much for an opponent who had a career 1-11 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts before beating Laura Siegemund in the Second Round.
In eight of those eleven defeats, Maddison Inglis would not have won enough games to get within the spread set for this Third Round match.
Naomi Osaka does need to improve if she is going to have a serious impact at the business end of this tournament, but her current level is expected to be too much for the Australian.
Over the last twelve months, Osaka has won six of seven hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 100 and four of those would have seen her cover the spread like this one.
The reality is that Naomi Osaka's level should be too much for a veteran in Maddison Inglis who will be well supported, but who has to find a number of gears to remain competitive.
MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Jakub Mensik - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365
Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Linda Noskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Sets @ 1.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 23-10, + 17.36 Units (66 Units Staked, + 26.30% Yield)
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