Six selections were made on Day 4 of the Australian Open and five of them returned as winners.
This can only be seen as a positive, but there is still a touch of frustration that Alexander Zverev was not able to make it a clean sweep having broken in the fourth set and twice had 15-40 positions on the Alexandre Muller serve.
Most irritating is that at least one of those Break/Match Points were saved through sheer luck on the part of the Frenchman, but Zverev will just be glad to be through and it would have stung much more if four of the other five selections had already returned on the wrong side.
Two strong days in four have really helped the Tennis Pick numbers, but this is a tournament that still has plenty of days remaining and nothing is decided about the final outcome after four of the fifteen days have been completed.
Day 5 is looking like being the busiest of the tournament so far with seven selections set to go and those can be seen below.
Ben Shelton - 6.5 games v Dane Sweeny: Losing confidence on a tennis court can see a career spiral and that is certainly what happened to Dane Sweeny.
The 24 year old Australian had slipped well outside the top 500 and that has meant scrambling and fighting to get back into a position, such as the one he enjoyed on Tuesday when upsetting veteran Gael Monfils in the First Round at his home Grand Slam.
This is the first time Dane Sweeny has won a main draw match at a Grand Slam, while credit has to be given to the player for first battling through Qualifying.
Winning matches has rebuilt the confidence, even if those were mainly on the lower circuit compared with the ATP Tour, and Dane Sweeny is going to be playing with a new career-high World Ranking at the end of this tournament. This should help in his bid to perhaps earn the right to play in bigger events, which in turn will help Sweeny improve the Ranking further, and there is nothing to lose ahead of this very tough Second Round match.
His opponent has played thirteen Grand Slam tournaments and Ben Shelton has made the Quarter Final four times, while two of the three previous appearances at the Australian Open have been very productive. On debut Shelton made the Quarter Final in 2023 and he was a Semi Finalist twelve months ago, while the American is looking a little better on the court having struggled for form after being forced to retire mid-match at the US Open back in September.
You know what to expect from Shelton- he has a monster serve and he will be looking to use that shot to keep the pressure on his inexperienced opponent, especially having seen Reilly Opelka do that against Dane Sweeny to very good effect earlier this month.
However, taking the next step in his career and winning a Major will depend on whether Ben Shelton can improve what is a vulnerable return game.
This is the kind of match in which Ben Shelton can perhaps exert his dominance a little more having broken in 30% of return games when playing those Ranked outside the top 100 compared with his overall 18% mark.
Dane Sweeny gave up 8 Break Points in the defeat to Reilly Opelka in a best of three set format and he may struggle to contain Ben Shelton, who will appreciate the atmosphere that will likely be generated by the home crowd.
A solid First Round win is expected to be backed up by Ben Shelton and he may just have too much know-how for the home player as he makes his way through to the Third Round.
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 sets v Marin Cilic: Two former top ten Ranked players meet in the Second Round at the Australian Open after coming through opening matches with something to spare.
These days Denis Shapovalov is trying his best to get back into the top 20, while the veteran Marin Cilic is 37 years old and the World Number 70.
Marin Cilic is also a former US Open Champion and a beaten Finalist both at Wimbledon and right here at the Australian Open. He has reached the Fourth Round three times since the Final, but Marin Cilic has been dealing with injury in the latter part of his career and he had missed two of the last three Australian Open tournaments and had suffered a First Round defeat in the other.
He did not drop a game in the first two sets against Daniel Altmaier, but Marin Cilic has to expect this to be a much tougher match.
Prior to that victory, Marin Cilic had played ten matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and had been beaten eight times. His numbers remain poor against the better players on the Tour, especially on this surface, and that is going to be a tough bridge to gap, even against someone who has been a little inconsistent as Denis Shapovalov has been.
The main reason Denis Shapovalov has been able to avoid slipping too far behind the top 20 in the World Rankings has been a solid year on the hard courts.
One of the main areas of improvement that were needed was on the return of serve and he showed some of that last season, while Denis Shapovalov has also made sure he has not been beaten too many times in matches that he should win.
In the last twelve months, the Canadian has won seventeen of twenty hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 50- his return numbers have been impressive in those matches and that may be the difference for Denis Shapovalov against this veteran.
They have not faced one another since August 2020 on the hard courts, but Denis Shapovalov won the last three between himself and Marin Cilic on this surface. He will have plenty of respect for the opponent standing across the net, but Shapovalov should be the stronger player at this stage of the respective careers and can find the tennis needed to secure passage in three or four sets.
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 games v Nishesh Basavareddy: This is a repeat of a First Round match from the US Open in August 2025 and it would be a surprise if Karen Khachanov is not able to frank that victory with another over Qualifier Nishesh Basavareddy.
The latter has already been a part of a viral moment at the 2026 Australian Open- during Qualifiers, his opponent celebrated after reaching 7 points in a final set tie-breaker, but had forgotten that it was a 'Super Tie-Breaker' and first to reach 10 points.
It clearly inspired Nishesh Basavareddy who fought back for the victory and made the 'choke' celebration when the win was confirmed.
Coming through three Qualifying matches will have given the 20 year old American a lot of confidence and he then spent over four hours on the court to get the better of his First Round opponent. That was a victory over an Australian, which will also have given Basavareddy confidence, but none of the opponents beaten in Melbourne have been Ranked inside the top 100 and this time the American faces the World Number 18.
There was nothing wrong with the numbers being produced by Karen Khachanov on the hard courts in 2025, but the 15-15 record was disappointing.
He has not been beaten before the Third Round at the Australian Open since 2018 and Karen Khachanov has previously reached the Semi Final at this opening Grand Slam.
Karen Khachanov has lost his last two matches on the hard courts when facing someone Ranked outside the top 100, but the last twelve months has seen him win many of those matches in confident style.
When he played Nishesh Basavareddy in New York City, Karen Khachanov was winning around 10% more points behind serve compared with his younger opponent and he has to believe he still has the power to dominate at times.
There is a big gap to bridge and Nishesh Basavareddy lost all five matches on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months- in those, Basavareddy has held just 56% of service games played, while also struggling on the return, and you have to think that Karen Khachanov will eventually wear down the younger player in this best of five set format.
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v McCartney Kessler: Her family own the Buffalo Bills and some are wondering if that team have had their Super Bowl window close after the latest Playoff defeat- the question for Jessica Pegula is whether she can at least keep her Grand Slam window open a little longer at almost 32 years old.
The American is still the World Number 6, but it does feel like the WTA Tour has at least one or two players that will have too much for Jessica Pegula at the business end of the biggest events over the next few months.
A Semi Final run in the warm up to the Australian Open will have given Pegula some confidence and she was a strong winner in the First Round. It is important to keep something in the tank for later in the event and Jessica Pegula will feel pretty confident with the match up that has been presented to her in the next Round.
McCartney Kessler is a potentially dangerous opponent, and she is very comfortable on the hard courts, but she was beaten pretty comfortably against Madison Keys in the warm up to the Australian Open.
However, Kessler has shown that she can compete with the very best players on the Tour on the hard courts with her 4-6 record against top 20 players over the last twelve months to be respected. Six months ago she reached the top 30 for the first time and McCartney Kessler has a serve that can put opponents under significant pressure when she is feeling at her best.
There is room for improvement on the return of serve, and this Jessica Pegula serve is an underrated part of her game.
When these two players met in the Austin Final in February 2025, Jessica Pegula showed she had a bit more from her serve compared with McCartney Kessler and that may be the case when they meet again in Melbourne.
At 26 years old, it does feel like there is more to come from McCartney Kessler who has win overs Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva on the hard courts in 2025. That will earn her plenty of respect, but Pegula should have the experience to ride out some of the tougher moments within the match and ultimately come through with a solid win on the scoreboard.
MY PICKS: Ben Shelton - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.30 Coral (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anna Kalinskaya - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 12-5, + 10.48 Units (34 Units Staked, + 30.82% Yield)
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