The opening day of the Australian Open could not have gone much better for the Tennis Picks, but Day 2 looks a bit harder to negotiate.
There are plenty of matches scheduled to be played as the First Round continues, but some of the margins just look a bit too tight and so will 'only' be two selections made from the day's play.
Much as would be stated in previous years, a positive start is obviously better than a poor one, but it is only a start in what is a two week tournament and building on that early and often is the only way to secure a solid return to open the 2026 season.
Victoria Mboko - 5.5 games v Emerson Jones: Two teenagers meet in the First Round of the Australian Open, but the younger player representing the host nation is going to have to bridge a significant gap.
Emerson Jones is 17 years old and she has reached a career high World Ranking mark earlier this month when entering the top 150 for the first time.
However, it should be noted that Jones is still learning her trade on the professional Tour and the Australian also has limited experience when it comes to playing some of the stronger players on the Tour. This is going to be the eighth time Emerson Jones has faced a top 100 Ranked player on the hard courts and she has been beaten in five of the previous seven occasions, including twice this month.
Her opponent is not exactly blessed with a deep experience, but Victoria Mboko is 19 years old and has won a big 1000 event in Montreal.
Over the last twelve months, the Canadian has not only moved into the top 100 for the first time, but Victoria Mboko is inside the top 20 and is Seeded here in Melbourne.
In the warm up for the Australian Open, Victoria Mboko was able to reach a Final in Adelaide before coming up short against Mirra Andreeva, while she has dominated those opponents Ranked outside of the top 100 on this surface.
In the last twelve months, Victoria Mboko has a 19-1 record in that situation and twelve of those wins were in matches when she would have covered this line set for the First Round match. Doing so at a Grand Slam when the youngster is going to have to deal with a vocal crowd will be difficult, but Victoria Mboko has the talent to beat Emerson Jones at this current stage of their respective careers.
There is a significant edge in the service numbers being produced in favour of Victoria Mboko and she has also been the superior return player.
Emerson Jones looks to have a lot of potential and is growing into the pro game, but this tournament may be too early to expect her to earn the upset of a Seeded player who is looking to take the next step in her own development over the next eleven months.
Playing in this kind of environment will be challenging, but Victoria Mboko can find the quality of tennis needed to take command and eventually wear down Emerson Jones in what could be the first match of a potentially long professional rivalry.
Karolina Muchova - 5.5 games v Jaqueline Cristian: Early season form offers a small sample as to how players are feeling going into the Australian Open, but Jaqueline Cristian has to be feeling pretty confident.
She came through the Qualifiers and eventually reached the Quarter Final in Brisbane, which included beating a top 20 Ranked opponent and another in Daria Kasatkina who has been amongst the better players on the Tour.
Those victories back up what had been a solid enough year on the hard courts for the Romanian, while Jaqueline Cristian is also playing on a career high World Ranking mark of Number 37.
It is one that makes Cristian a danger to any player in the draw and even a Seeded opponent will be disappointed with what looks to be a tough First Round draw on paper.
However, Karolina Muchova has played her best tennis on the hard courts at Grand Slam level and she has reached the Semi Final twice in New York City and once in Melbourne. That Semi Final run was back in 2021 and Muchova has twice missed competing Down Under with a career that has been hit hard by injury meaning absences, while the other two main draw appearances have both ended in the Second Round.
That includes 2025, but Muchova ended a disappointing year of Grand Slam results by reaching the US Open Quarter Final and a Semi Final run in Brisbane at the start of this campaign can only keep the positive vibes flowing in her team. Karolina Muchova is still Ranked inside the top 20 and this is a player that gets plenty out of the serve, but will likely need a bit more from the return if she is going to challenge the very best players on the Tour.
Dealing with the Jaqueline Cristian serve will be a test, but Karolina Muchova beat her twice on the hard courts around fifteen months ago and that will give the higher Ranked player a mental edge.
Neither of those matches were particularly competitive with Karolina Muchova dominating behind her serve and Jaqueline Cristian struggling to impose that shot on her opponent.
You do have to note that Cristian has improved markedly since those matches with the Ranking much higher than when they last faced each other, but Karolina Muchova is still the better player and can make that show on the final scoreboard.
For all of the improvements made, Jaqueline Cristian has a 1-6 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. In those contests, the serve has not been nearly as effective as her overall numbers and Cristian has won just 37% of return points played, which suggests Karolina Muchova will eventually exert her qualities on this tough looking First Round match.
MY PICKS: Victoria Mboko - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 5-1, + 6 Units (12 Units Staked, + 50% Yield)
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