Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 27th January)

Taking a quick glance at the Quarter Final lineup at the Australian Open will make any Tennis fan pretty excited about the potential for some brilliant matches to conclude the opening Grand Slam of the season.

Top names, some new faces and conditions that offer plenty of challenges should make for some solid tennis and an opening of what could be a really good season on the Tour.

The last couple of days have been tougher for the Tennis Picks, which is never a positive, but hopefully that momentum can swing back on Day 10 and start a strong end to the tournament.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Alex De Minaur: A thumping win over Alexander Bublik has sent a statement out to the rest of the field that Alex De Minaur is determined to end Australia's sixty year wait to have a Men's Champion at their own Grand Slam. There hasn't even been an Australian Men's Finalist since Lleyton Hewitt did that in 2005 and was beaten in four sets by Marat Safin, and Hewitt has been helping Alex De Minaur with any advice he needs.

Before all of that, De Minaur has other milestones to reach- he has never reached any Grand Slam Semi Final and breaking that duck at the Australian Open will mean so much to him.

The level being produced in the tournament has to be hugely encouraging for his fans, but Alex De Minaur has long been developing his game to try and see if that can bridge the gap to the top two players in the world.

In this Quarter Final, the World Number 6 has an opportunity to show how much he has learned when he takes on the top Seed and a player in Carlos Alcaraz who has shown little sign of losing his appetite for more and more Grand Slam successes.

The World Number 1 won the titles in Paris and New York City, but he has never been past the Quarter Final at the Australian Open as Carlos Alcaraz continues to chase a record of becoming the youngest player to ever complete the career Grand Slam.

In each of the last two years, Carlos Alcaraz has fallen at this stage of the Australian Open in four set defeats to Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic- the loss twelve months ago to the Serb will have really hurt considering Djokovic had displayed signs of battling through an injury and was forced to withdraw after a single set of the Semi Final.

All of that is forgotten though considering the successes Carlos Alcaraz has had in the months since that defeat and his hard court pedigree makes him very dangerous.

The numbers may not be as strong as Alex De Minaur's in the four wins produced, but Carlos Alcaraz is very comfortable and still looks like he may have gears to go through.

He will also have no real concerns about a match up against a player he has beaten in all five meetings on the pro Tour, even if there will be plenty of respect for the way Alex De Minaur has been extracting everything from his potential.

Carlos Alcaraz won both hard court meetings, which both took place on indoor courts in 2025, and he was able to break serve four times in each, while dropping serve twice.

As well as the home favourite has been serving this week, Alex De Minaur will recognise that the return player in front of him is more dangerous than most and that is going to be a factor. The pressure only builds when you think of how well Carlos Alcaraz has been serving and an entertaining match should eventually end with the top Seed moving through with enough breaks of serve to cover this spread, even if he is to drop a set.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Learner Tien: Both of these players really impressed in comprehensive Fourth Round matches and they should enter this Quarter Final with a lot of confidence.

The experience edge is most definitely on the side of Alexander Zverev, but Learner Tien is growing on the Tour every passing week and is set for another push up the World Rankings. Last year he made the Fourth Round here, but the destruction of three time former Finalist in Melbourne, Daniil Medvedev, has moved the 20 year old American into his first ever Quarter Final at Grand Slam level.

There are going to be nerves on both sides with the feeling that this is a good opportunity for both and these two players split two matches last year.

It was Learner Tien who won the sole hard court match, but Alexander Zverev beat the American at the French Open on a surface that the World Number 3 is going to be more comfortable than the youngster.

The hard courts are a different story and Learner Tien will have taken a lot of confidence from the manner of the victory over Daniil Medvedev.

There have been a couple of matches where the edges have been much tighter between Learner Tien and opponents he has beaten on his way to the Quarter Final, but overall he has looked good in the conditions. The serve is becoming a bit more consistent with 84% of the games played ending in a hold, and that has really allowed Learner Tien to take a grip of return games, where he has a lot of strengths.

Getting the ball back into play and then outworking opponents is the plan and Tien is comfortable with his defensive capabilities on a court.

Of course he will be dealing with a big Alexander Zverev serve and facing an opponent who feels he is as healthy as he has been since reaching the Final in Melbourne twelve months ago. There will be some pressure on Zverev to try and avoid a long match ahead of what could be a Semi Final against the top Seed, but he will also want to avoid being too aggressive and handing the errors over that Learner Tien will want to feast upon.

Alexander Zverev has been serving very big in the tournament with 72% of service points won and 90% of service games ending in a hold.

Some have criticised the World Number 3 for sometimes being a little passive on the court, but he has been returning with real authority in the run to the Quarter Final and that may be key to the outcome of this match.

The younger player is breaking new ground in Melbourne, but it may still be a little too much inexperience to deal with the occasion and that can help Alexander Zverev to come through in four sets.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Iva Jovic: For the thirteenth Grand Slam event in succession, Aryna Sabalenka has worked her way through to the Quarter Final, while she remains on course to compete for the title at the Australian Open for the fourth year in a row.

The top Seed did have an awkward Third Round win, but Aryna Sabalenka was able to control young upstart Victoria Mboko in the Fourth Round, although after blowing a lead in the second set and having to win the match on the Breaker to avoid having to go the distance.

In the main Aryna Sabalenka has to be very happy with the victory over Mboko, who looks like she is going to be competing at the very top of the WTA Tour in years to come.

Now the World Number 1 takes aim at another rising star on the Tour when taking on 18 year old Iva Jovic in the Quarter Final.

There has been plenty of noise about the potential of the 18 year old American, and the rise in the World Rankings over the last twelve months would have caught the eye. Iva Jovic entered the Australian Open as the World Number 27, meaning she was Seeded in the draw, but she is on course for a top 20 Ranking at the end of the event and there is even an opportunity to win the Grand Slam title and finish as a top 10 Ranked player.

All of those positives are almost certainly going to come for Iva Jovic, but the Auckland Finalist will also know that this is a big step in level of opponent. She has upset Jasmine Paolini in the Third Round in Melbourne, but Aryna Sabalenka has proven to be a consistent force on the WTA Tour and remains the favourite to win this title for a third time in four years.

The younger player has been serving very well in the tournament, but it should be noted that outside of the win over Jasmine Paolini, Iva Jovic has not had to face anyone higher than World Number 94 in other three wins. That has contributed to the stronger serving numbers, but anything that is not hitting the right marks in this one will be attacked by Sabalenka, who has been putting a lot of pressure right from the opening return of serve.

Iva Jovic has decent numbers on the return against top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months, but that has slightly dipped against top 20 opponents.

The real issue is that the teenager has not faced Aryna Sabalenka and the power that will be felt from the other side of the court and it took Victoria Mboko a bit of time to become accustomed to that. However, she had been blown away in one set in that Fourth Round loss and Aryna Sabalenka feels capable of covering this spread, even if the match is plenty competitive at times.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 30-19, + 9.44 Units (100 Units Staked, + 9.44% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2026 (Monday 26th January)

Day 8 at the Australian Open was clearly the worst one of the week, but a 2-4 return could have been a lot worse and the overall numbers remain in a very strong position.

However, things can unravel pretty quickly in the coming days and it is important to remain focused and make sure this opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season (and opening tournament covered) sets a solid foundation for the remainder of the year.

Giving away such a positive start would be a real disappointment.

On Day 9, the Quarter Final lineup for both Men's and Women's tournaments will be set and that means another busy day of action.

However, the matches look pretty competitive on Monday and so there are 'only' three selections from the play to come, which can be read below.

Taylor Fritz v Lorenzo Musetti: The 2024 Wimbledon Quarter Final between Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz was an entertaining five setter which was surprisingly won by the underdog Italian.

The odds are much tighter when they meet in the 2026 Australian Open with a place in the Quarter Final on the line.

We still have Taylor Fritz down as favourite in this Fourth Round match, which is not a surprise on the hard courts, but Lorenzo Musetti is being given a lot of respect. The World Number 5 actually is the higher Seed compared with Fritz, but there is little doubt that the latter is at his most comfortable on the hard courts.

Last year we did see Lorenzo Musetti pick up his level on this surface and that is backed up by the run to the US Open Quarter Final- his numbers were much improved on the hard courts and Musetti was able to compete at the Tour Finals for the first time in his career, which was another big achievement having broken through at Grand Slam level in Paris and New York City.

He has impressed here this week, but Musetti needed four and a half hours to get through his Third Round match and in very tough conditions- this has to have an impact on the gas tank, even with a day of rest between matches.

His opponent also needed to dig in to win his match, but Taylor Fritz did not need nearly as long out on the court and that is going to be important for him.

The American has also won both previous hard court matches against Lorenzo Musetti, including beating him a couple of months ago at the Tour Finals. That would have been a win in hostile surroundings, but Taylor Fritz is very experienced and his serve can be the big weapon in this match.

Over the first three matches here, Taylor Fritz has held 89% of his service games played compared with Musetti's 81% mark.

No one will be surprised that Lorenzo Musetti has produced the stronger returning numbers this week, but the conditions should be favourable to Taylor Fritz with the first strike very important here at Melbourne Park.

Taylor Fritz will take confidence from the win that was produced in Turin in November, albeit on an indoor hard court, although he will expect Lorenzo Musetti to offer plenty of resistance.

However, the longer this match goes, the more it should favour Taylor Fritz after the efforts Musetti made to get through his Third Round match, and the World Number 9 can reach his second Quarter Final at the Australian Open.

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Luciano Darderi: The heat in Melbourne was intense enough on Saturday to have a rule in place that there would not be too much tennis played at the highest point of the day. Some matches were going to cross over and one of those involved Jannik Sinner, who was suffering very badly in the third set as he trailed by a break.

The upset at that point looked on course, but Jannik Sinner was perhaps fortunate to have the organisers decide that was the moment they would bring the players off the court and allow the organisers to put the roof in place to control conditions.

The World Number 2 was cramping and his team were highly concerned, but being able to head off the court and just take in the pickle juice and electrolytes to rebuild his strength proved to be crucial. While never being completely comfortable, Jannik Sinner was able to come through in four sets and the defending Champion will be hoping he can now really settle into the tournament.

It was the case when the won the title at Wimbledon back in July- he was trailing 2-0 in sets when Grigor Dimitrov picked up an injury that forced him to withdraw when looking the much stronger player and Jannik Sinner benefited by going on to win the event in SW19.

Jannik Sinner will feel there is room for improvement on the serve, which is going to be important in the second half of this tournament, but he is returning very well and that should give him the edge in this Fourth Round match. The fitness should not be an issue for Sinner after coming through some testing moments and he will have something of a mental edge against a compatriot.

An unexpected run to the Fourth Round will have given Luciano Darderi confidence, but it is still very difficult to ignore the overall record on the hard courts over the last couple of years.

Luciano Darderi has been serving well in Melbourne, but this is an opponent who will present a very difficult test for him.

It also means the World Number 25 will be under pressure to try and get into the Sinner service games if he is being put under the cosh on his own serve and this is a considerable increase in level of opponent compared with the players Luciano Darderi has beaten at the Australian Open.

When he played Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open in the Third Round, Luciano Darderi was not able to maintain a level to give the eventual Champion something to think about.

He was good enough to be competitive within a set, but Luciano Darderi may struggle to stick with Jannik Sinner much as he did against Alcaraz and the top Italian player on the ATP Tour can cover a big line.

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Xinyu Wang: This will be the fourth time Amanda Anisimova will be competing in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but the American has yet to make it through to the Quarter Final.

Despite reaching the last two Grand Slam Finals, Amanda Anisimova will be fairly comfortable that the attention of the sports writers for the women's tournament in Melbourne have focused on other names. The World Number 4 will be happy to continue her surge in the tournament without having to deal with additional pressure and Amanda Anisimova is playing at a decent level.

Peaking too early in a Grand Slam event is always a concern for players, but it does feel like Amanda Anisimova has some gears to go through, although she may not necessarily need them in this Fourth Round clash.

At the end of this tournament, Xinyu Wang will be back inside the top 40 of the World Rankings and another upset in the Fourth Round would mean setting a new career best mark.

She beat the World Number 13 in the Third Round, but over the last twelve months, Xinyu Wang has come up short when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. To her credit, she did give Elina Svitolina something to think about in losing the Auckland Final before getting the better of Linda Noskova in the last Round at this tournament, but Wang had been pretty well beaten in other matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in the months prior to these last results.

Recent form cannot be dismissed and Xinyu Wang is dangerous playing with her current level of confidence, although the second serve is a vulnerability.

This has also been something of an issue for Amanda Anisimova in her three wins at the Australian Open, although the higher Ranked player has been very convincing when her first serve has landed. She has also been seeing the ball very well as proven by the strong returning numbers produced and that may give her the edge in this Fourth Round match and a chance to pull away and cover a big spread.

A competitive set will also be expected where Xinyu Wang is able to get enough from her own first serve, but the overall expectation is that Amanda Anisimova is able to exert her strengths on the Fourth Round match and she can find the breaks of serve that she will need to get over this line.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Vctor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 29-17, + 12 Units (94 Units Staked, + 12.77% Yield)

NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Conference Championship (Sunday 26th January)

It has been a remarkable season and we are now just hours away from learning which two teams will be heading to the home of the San Francisco 49ers to compete for the Super Bowl.

Injuries have been a big factor throughout the 2025 season and those continue to have a big impact on the outlook for teams, even this late into the year.

The Denver Broncos lost their starting Quarter Back in the win over the Buffalo Bills, while the Seattle Seahawks have a Quarter Back fighting through the pain. Offensive Linemen and Defensive Linemen absentees can be so important at this time of the season when winning at the Line of Scrimmage is so very important.

Both Championship Games to be played on Sunday are intriguing with the factors around them, but it still feels like the winner of the NFC Championship will be a big favourite to win it all in two weeks time.

The AFC Champion is going to have something to say about that, but the focus has to be on the opponent in front of each team this Sunday and both games look like they can produce drama.

It has been a difficult season for the NFL Picks after a decent last few years, but my thoughts on the Conference Championship Games can be read below.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: There was some controversy attached to the end of the Denver Broncos (15-3) win over the Buffalo Bills with a long debate over whether the road team should have been awarded a catch in Overtime that would have put them in a position to win the game. If the decision on the field had ruled Brandin Cooks down with the ball, there would unlikely have been an overturn on the review, but that is in the books and it is the Broncos who will be hosting the AFC Championship Game as the Number 1 Seed.

Fans would have left the Stadium in buoyant mood, but that would have changed very quickly.

Quarter Back Bo Nix was quickly ruled out for the season having suffered an injury on the penultimate play of the Divisional Round win over the Bills.

All of a sudden, the Denver Broncos are going to be heading into the Conference Championship Game with a backup at the most important position of any sport.

Making it all the more challenging is that Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a pass in the NFL since Week 18 of the 2023 regular season.

Head Coach Sean Payton is backing his Quarter Back to come in and do what is needed for the Denver Broncos and there will be plenty of respect for Stidham on the other sideline considering he was Drafted into the League by the New England Patriots (16-3).

He played under the guidance of Josh McDaniels and that should help the Patriots plan for what they may see from a Quarter Back that is the first since 1972 to have his first start of a season in the Conference Championship Game.

Josh McDaniels will be passing all of the data over to the New England Defensive unit, but he will also be focusing on making sure Drake Maye and company have a good plan to deal with what has been one of the top Defensive units in the NFL.

The Patriots have done just enough Offensively, but the run through to the Championship Round has been based on the performance on the other side of the ball. Drake Maye has had a very strong season at Quarter Back, but his two Playoff appearances this season have been erratic to say the least and he has to make sure he has better control of the football when he is being hit.

Turnovers could be a huge part of the outcome of this AFC Championship Game and so the Quarter Back has to be careful.

He will be looking to lean on the New England rushing attack, which has been operating well, and there looks to be an advantage on the Line of Scrimmage in favour of the Patriots. For much of the season the Broncos have been very good at stopping the run, but they have struggled towards the end of the regular season and into the Playoffs and keeping Drake Maye in front of the chains would give the Number 2 Seed a real advantage.

Third and manageable compared with third and long will be a huge difference for the New England Offensive unit.

Putting Maye in a position where he can make quick throws to keep the chains moving would be a distinct advantage, but holding onto the ball too long will allow the Denver pass rush to have a big impact in the contest. The Patriots Offensive Line have been very good at establishing the run, but the pass blocking has been something of a weakness and Drake Maye will not want to attempt to attack this Denver Secondary with the pocket collapsing around him.

You have to imagine the Broncos Defensive players have been focused this week in producing their absolute best to give the injury hit Offensive unit a boost.

They look capable of at least slowing down the New England Offense, which has not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in the two Playoff wins, and that will give Jarrett Stidham an opportunity.

It would not surprise anyone if Sean Payton has a solid plan for his backup, but you have to believe the Broncos are going to want to get behind this Offensive Line and at least make sure they can establish the run.

JK Dobbins looks set to miss out again, which is another blow for the Offense, and the Broncos will have noted how effective this New England Defensive Line have been at playing the run in recent games. They have made things very difficult for the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans and so the game plan may be to get Jarrett Stidham comfortable and ask him to make some quick, easy throws to settle in, especially while New England anticipate plenty of early runs.

Head Coach Mike Vrabel has really put together a strong Defensive unit and they have a team that will feel they can shut down the Broncos.

If they can keep Denver in third and long, the New England Secondary will be full of confidence and belief in their Secondary having made Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud look very ordinary. They have also been turning the ball over with great success in the two Playoff wins, although Jarrett Stidham may be given a bit more protection behind the Denver Offensive Line than either Herbert or Stroud were afforded.

Those Interceptions being created by the Patriots have to be respected and New England do look capable of winning this one on the road.

However, there have only ever been 10 Road Favourites of 4 or more points in the Conference Championship Round and those teams are a perfect imperfect 0-10 against the spread.

Hosts that have been set as the underdog are on a 14-3 run against the spread in the NFL Playoffs over the last decade too.

Good teams do have a habit of stepping up their level to offer as much support as possible to a backup Quarter Back, while Denver are hosting, which should also be a big help.

Most are going to back the New England Patriots against Jarrett Stidham, but this Broncos Defensive unit can make this a low-scoring, competitive affair and that makes the points being given to the hosts appealing. The AFC hosts have tended to be the stronger at covering the spread in the Championship Game and the Denver Broncos will have a point to prove after the injury to Bo Nix and can keep this one close thanks to the Defensive unit going up against Drake Maye and company.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: For the third time this season, the Seattle Seahawks (15-3) and Los Angeles Rams (14-5) face off, but this time with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.

If the previous two games are anything to go by, this is going to be an exciting, competitive contest that will come down to the final snap of the ball.

The Los Angeles Rams beat Seattle by 2 points when hosting them earlier in the season, but the most recent game in Week 16 of the regular season saw the Seahawks recover from a big deficit and earn a home win. This ultimately led to them finishing with the Number 1 record in the NFC and is the reason that the Seattle Seahawks host the Championship Game.

You want to know how competitive the games were in the regular season? The Rams had a single point advantage in the two games played and just ONE Offensive yard more than the Seahawks.

Seattle had been favoured when hosting in Week 16 and they are going into the Championship Game as a slightly stronger favourite- they played on Saturday in the Divisional Round and so have an extra day of rest, while the Rams had a very tough road game on Sunday that they could have easily lost in Overtime in frigid temperatures in Chicago.

That has been factored into the spread, while the Seahawks are also holding home advantage, which has been a key to the outcome of the majority of recent Conference Championship Games.

However, things are not exactly going smoothly for Seattle- Quarter Back Sam Darnold is playing through an injury, while Running Back Zach Charbonnet has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury suffered in the blowout of the San Francisco 49ers. There are still some issues on the Offensive Line, even though Charles Cross is back in practice to protect Darnold's blindside, and this is a match up that has been tough for Seattle in two regular season meetings.

Kenneth Walker III had a big outing at Running Back behind a powerful Seattle Offensive Line, but he will have a different test without his partner to come in and give him some time to rest. This week Walker III is also running against the Los Angeles Defensive Line, which is much stronger than the one he was facing last week, although the Seahawks will have confidence they can establish the Running Back.

This looks to be an important factor in the outcome of the game, especially as we are still not sure how healthy Sam Darnold is at Quarter Back- the Divisional Round blowout of the 49ers began very early and so Darnold was not under much pressure to drop back and throw the ball, but it is unlikely to be that comfortable in this game agains the Rams.

Any time Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are in third and long, the Rams pass rush is likely going to put the Quarter Back under significant pressure and that has not always been a position in which Darnold has thrived. There have been holes in the Rams Secondary that have been exploited in this Playoff run, which have been exploited by Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, but Seattle are a run first Offensive unit and the main ambition for Sam Darnold is to avoid giving this game away.

Instead he will be happy to play the field position and lean on a fantastic Seattle Defense that has continued to perform at a top level all season.

In recent games, the Seahawks Defensive Line have proved to be stout at clamping down on the run, while the Secondary have stepped in front of passes and turned the ball over.

However, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams have a potent passing game and talented Receivers who will feel they can break clear of some of the Defenders to be faced and offer up passing lanes down the field. Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a finger issue and Sean McVay admitted he did not give his Offensive unit the best game plan to deal with the Chicago Bears, but both are expected to be improved on Sunday.

Giving the Rams most confidence is the fact that they put up almost 600 Offensive yards and Matthew Stafford had over 450 passing yards in the narrow loss in this Stadium in Week 16.

They did blow that lead, but it will offer Stafford and company encouragement about what they can do in the Championship Game and he will also have Davante Adams available for this one. That gives the Rams another crease on the Offensive side of the ball and Los Angeles do have a very good balance in the team.

If the spread moved to the key number 3, it would be an easy choice to back the Los Angeles Rams in what should be another game that comes down to the wire.

On the current line, the Rams still look worthy of being selected with the points they are being given, but it could come down to a final Field Goal and it is a dangerous line.

NFC home teams are just 8-10 against the spread in the Championship Game, while home teams facing Divisional rivals are just 13-17 against the spread.

Blowing out the San Francisco 49ers will have caught the eye, but everything went right for the Seahawks from the opening kick off and NFL teams that have won home games by at least 35 points are 14-26-1 against the spread in the next game played.

There has been so little between the teams throughout the course of the season that it feels unlikely to be much different on Sunday so the points being given to the Los Angeles Rams looks the best play.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 50-65, - 20.31 Units (115 Units Staked, - 17.66% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2026 (Sunday 25th January)

It was not quite the day that would have been hoped, but a slight loss on Day 7 of the Australian Open has not had a massive impact in the overall tournament numbers.

The second week begins in Melbourne on Sunday and it is perhaps fortunate that all of the top names are still fighting it out for the first Grand Slam of the season- both Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner have had to come through real testing matches, but the former one through her quality and the latter was perhaps fortunate that the organisers called for a break in play through the 'heat rule' when he was trailing 3-1 in the third set and barely looking capable of walking, never mind running.

The break worked for the defending Champion, but he will have some questions to answer about his body in the next twenty-four hours.

At least the conditions on Monday look much more manageable when Sinner is next out, but before that we have a full day of action at Melbourne Park with the top half of the Fourth Round draws to be completed.

Picks from the day can be read below as the quality of matches tends to pick up at this stage of any of the big tournaments to be played on the Tour.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Francisco Cerundolo: The continued dominance of Cameron Norrie on the professional Tour has helped Alexander Zverev reach the Fourth Round yet again at the Australian Open.

However, there are much bigger ambitions within the German's camp than merely getting to the second week of a Grand Slam and Alexander Zverev's team should be happy with the progress that has been made.

It has not been a perfect run with sets dropped in each of the three matches won, but the time spent on the court has not been too taxing, while Alexander Zverev will be pleased to hear the forecast for Sunday looks much better compared with what could be the brutal heat expected on Saturday. This should help the World Number 3 continue to manage himself and make sure there is plenty left in the tank when he will be expecting to face the top two players in the world to round out this Grand Slam.

The focus cannot be looking down the line and Francisco Cerundolo has plenty of hard court pedigree to deserve to be respected.

Upsetting Andrey Rublev in the Third Round means Cerundolo is unlikely to be overlooked and the World Number 21 has also beaten Alexander Zverev three times since May 2024.

All of those wins have been on the clay courts, including twice last year, but Alexander Zverev has begun to turn the head to head around- he won a match on the hard courts in Canada when Francisco Cerundolo had to withdraw in the second set, but more importantly Zverev has beaten this opponent on another hard court in Davis Cup aciton in November.

There wasn't a lot between the players in that Davis Cup match, but Alexander Zverev had been the slightly stronger server and that is going to be the key weapon in this Fourth Round match.

Experience could also be a factor that gives Alexander Zverev the edge- while he has reached Grand Slam Finals and been a feature of the Quarter Final and beyond, Francisco Cerundolo has only reached the Fourth Round (twice) at the French Open and had only reached the Third Round on a couple of occasions in hard court Grand Slam events, albeit both times here in Melbourne.

Francisco Cerundolo came through in straight sets against Andrey Rublev in the Third Round, but it was a match played on very fine margins.

This time those slight inches could go in favour of Alexander Zverev who will still feel there is more to come from his own serve, but who also has been returning the ball effectively enough to believe in his tennis.

Over the last twelve months, Francisco Cerundolo has lost five of seven hard court matches against top 10 Ranked opponents and his numbers have taken a significant dip in those outings.

He is unlikely to be rolled over easily, but Alexander Zverev can perform as he did in the Davis Cup win over this opponent and can move through in three or, more likely, four sets to take his place in the Quarter Final for the fifth time in seven years at the Australian Open.

Daniil Medvedev-Learner Tien over 37.5 games: Twelve months ago, a young Qualifier moved into the main draw at the Australian Open and upset the then World Number 5 in the Second Round of the tournament.

Learner Tien was Ranked outside the top 100 in the 2025 Australian Open after battling through those Qualifying Rounds, but it has been a memorable twelve months for the 20 year old and more improvement is expected in the weeks and months ahead.

He only won one Grand Slam match at the French Open, Wimbleon and US Open combined, but Learner Tien clearly enjoys playing Down Under having reached the Fourth Round for a second year in a row. This time he is a Seeded player and has not had to win six matches to make the second week and that should mean Learner Tien has plenty in the tank for this big Fourth Round match.

Five sets were needed to avoid another early Grand Slam exit, but the American has won the last two matches with a single set dropped and, importantly, has only spent a few minutes over four hours on the court.

At his age, Learner Tien will have no excuses for being fatigued and the conditions on Sunday look much more comfortable compared with the day before.

On the other side of the court, Daniil Medvedev just about remained unbeaten in 2026 by coming from two sets down to win his Third Round match, although the World Number 12 needed almost four hours before finally getting past Fabian Marozsan.

He will be well aware of the challenge coming up having faced Learner Tien three times in 2025- all on the hard courts- and all of those matches entering a final set decider. The Second Round match between them in Melbourne lasted five sets, while the match in Beijing ended in a final set withdrawal for Medvedev.

However, the most recent match was played at the Shanghai Masters and Daniil Medvedev was finally able to edge past this opponent in a 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 victory.

There has been so little between the players in the three meetings and it would be a surprise if this match was decided in straight sets either way.

Nothing has come easy when Tien and Medvedev have met one another and both have struggled to consistently hold serve, which suggests this could be another match with several swings in momentum.

Both have held 66% of service games played against the other and Learner Tien has won 57% of service points played, while Daniil Medvedev is at 59%.

You have to give the narrowest of edges to Daniil Medvedev, even after the gruelling Third Round win, but this is likely to be a Fourth Round match that goes pretty long and that could see the players end up combining to surpass the total set.

Alexander Bublik-Alex De Minaur over 38.5 games: He has never hidden his disdain for playing on the hard courts, but something has clicked for Alexander Bublik.

Having only previously been beyond the Second Round once in eleven hard court Grand Slam tournaments played, Alexander Bublik reached the Fourth Round at the US Open in 2025. This surprised himself, but Bublik has had a very strong twelve months on the Tour and entered the tournament in Melbourne as the World Number 10, while keeping expectations at a minimum.

He won a title in the warm up to the Australian Open, but Alexander Bublik had never been beyond the Second Round here and had lost three straight First Round matches at this opening Grand Slam of the year.

Out of all of the Grand Slams played, Alexander Bublik particularly disliked the Australian Open, but he is feeling better about things. There were even some positive words said about the event, but he may not be so happy when having to deal with an opponent and the crowd as expected to be the case in this Fourth Round match.

Alexander Bublik has not dropped a set at the tournament and that is largely down to an improved serve that has produced holds in 93% of service games played. He has been able to back that up with some aggressive returning and Bublik looks a dangerous test for home favourite Alex De Minaur.

The World Number 6 has only dropped a single set at the tournament as he looks to at least match the Quarter Final run from 2025 and Alex De Minaur has impressed with the dominant wins that have been put on the board.

Like his opponent in the Fourth Round, Alex De Minaur has held in 93% of service games played at the tournament and has only faced 9 Break Points in the event.

However, the real difference has been the way in which the Australian has returned serve, which has always been a strength, and he has broken in 40% of return games played. He will be the first to admit that he has not faced a server as strong as Alexander Bublik, but Alex De Minaur has to be confident he can at least get himself into rallies and wear down this opponent.

That looked to be the case when Alex De Minaur led Alexander Bublik 2-0 in sets at the French Open, but the latter dug in and upset the Australian in five sets.

They met again at the Paris Masters at the end of the 2025 season and that was another huge battle, which was eventually won by Alexander Bublik in three sets. Both players won at least 67% of points behind serve in that match on an indoor hard court and the conditions at Melbourne Park have been pretty quick, which makes the serve hugely important to both players.

Overall the edge has to be with the home favourite who can use the crowd to keep him going when things get tough.

Alex De Minaur's return edge could also play out over the best of five set format, but you would expect both to win a set and the serving power of the two players could see this total games number surpassed.

There is a fragility around Alexander Bublik, which could show up at any time, so a fast start will be needed to just give himself confidence in what is going to be a tough environment. As long as he can serve as well as he has this month, Bublik can make this a tough test for Alex De Minaur and both players can put on a very strong match.

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 games v Tommy Paul: The World Number 1 clearly admires Tommy Paul and admitted that he is expecting a very tough battle against this opponent in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open.

They have matched up well with one another, but Carlos Alcaraz may be playing with a bit more confidence in his physicality compared with Paul, who has only recently stated that his foot is feeling much more like it did when fully healthy.

Tommy Paul is a very good hard court player and he has actually beaten Carlos Alcaraz twice in four meetings on the surface.

The most recent hard court match was at the Cincinnati Masters in August 2023 and Tommy Paul was able to take a set from Alcaraz on that day too, although this time the Spaniard had enough to win the decider in that tournament.

The numbers have been very similar in the hard court meetings between the players and that makes this a potentially awkward match for the top Seed.

However, Carlos Alcaraz has beaten Tommy Paul at Grand Slam events at Wimbledon and the French Open with the last of those being played several months ago in Paris. It is another surface on which Paul has played well, but those two Grand Slam defeats have seen the American struggle to stay with Carlos Alcaraz in the best of five set format and something similar may happen on Day 8 of this tournament.

Both players will recognise that this is the toughest obstacle they have faced at the Australian Open by some distance, but the edge remains with Carlos Alcaraz.

This will not be an easy match to win, but Carlos Alcaraz can wear down Tommy Paul and it does feel like the World Number 1 will be able to extract a little more out of his serve to earn the edges needed.

Covering is not goign to be easy either, but Carlos Alcaraz has managed to do that in the two Grand Slam wins over this opponent and may just be able to pull away in the latter stages of the contest.

Mirra Andreeva - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: There is no doubt that the Ukrainian players on the Tour are finding it easy to be motivated to take on Russian and Belarusian opponents- some would like to separate politics and sports, but it is not always possible and you can see that extra intensity in the matches involving players representing those nations.

A veteran like Elina Svitolina has made her feelings clear about the war in Eastern Europe and she has a very strong record against Russian players since returning to the Tour and being very vocal about events affecting her homeland.

It was on display in the Third Round as Svitolina moved past Diana Shnaider in straight sets, but beating this special teenage talent is going to need more than the heart.

Mirra Andreeva is still only 18 years old, but she is a top 10 Ranked player and it really does feel like it is only a matter of time before she wins a Grand Slam title. That could open the door for multiple more successes and Andreeva has looked pretty comfortable in the conditions in Melbourne.

Even a hostile crowd was not able to put her off her game in the win over Maria Sakkari, while Mirra Andreeva beat Elina Svitolina in straight sets in Indian Wells last year.

On that day she was clearly the superior server as the younger player held Elina Svitolina to just 23% return points won.

The World Number 12 has yet to drop a set in her run to the Fourth Round, but Elina Svitolina did not have things all of her own way in the Third Round and this is a considerable leap in level of opponent too.

Elina Svitolina is experienced and a player that will not give up, but she is 2-3 when facing top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

If she serves well, she will have a chance of the upset, but it feels like Mirra Andreeva is playing at a high enough level to eventually break down this opponent much like she did on the North American hard courts in 2025 and she can reach her first Quarter Final at the Australian Open.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: It may 'only' be the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but this is a contest between two players who will have genuine aspirations of winning the first Major of the 2026 season.

Both Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova are very comfortable on the hard courts and have enjoyed a solid month of tennis, while they have each dropped just a single set in three matches at the Australian Open.

Out of the two players, you would have to say that Coco Gauff has been a little more convincing than the 29 year old opponent she is facing, but there will be a lot of respect for the quality of tennis that Karolina Muchova can produce.

One of the remaining issues for Coco Gauff is the problems with the serve that continues to see her throw far too many Double Faults, and that is a hugely contributory factor in the poor second serve percentage of points won. It does put some pressure on the American to make sure she is getting plenty of first serves in play, but there is a belief that Gauff can actually protect the second serve pretty well too when she is not gift-wrapping free points.

The World Number 3 continues to be a very effective return player on the surface as well and that is where Coco Gauff may be able to work through some problems and progress past Karolina Muchova.

The latter is the World Number 19 and just crushed Magda Linette for the loss of just two games in the Third Round, but Karolina Muchova has not been as convincing as Gauff in the opening two wins.

Karolina Muchova should have the edge when it comes to the serving consistency, but this has not been a very good match up for her in the past.

All four professional matches between the players have been won by Coco Gauff and all of those have been on the hard courts- the last meeting came a little over twelve months ago in the United Cup building up to the 2025 Australian Open, but that was yet another one-sided win for the younger player.

They met in the US Open Semi Final in 2023 and that ended in a straight sets win for Coco Gauff, albeit in two tight sets- the other three wins have also been in straight sets, but in much more routine fashion, and this looks like a match up that works for Gauff as she can match the athleticism of Karolina Muchova.

It is Coco Gauff who tends to get a bit more out of the first serve when these two have faced off and that could be the key to this Fourth Round match.

Covering is not going to be easy against a player of Karolina Muchova's quality, but if Coco Gauff can stick around the 64% mark of first serves in play, she should have enough to contain the threats and ultimately find the breaks needed to make relatively serene progress into the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev-Learner Tien Over 37.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik-Alex De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-13, + 16.74 Units (82 Units Staked, + 20.41% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2026- Raymond Muratalla vs Andy Cruz (Saturday 24th January)

This was supposed to be the weekend when Moses Itauma returned to the ring and continued his development and progress towards a Heavyweight World Title fight.

Unfortunately an injury has seen the entire card postponed and pushed back to the end of March, but that may be the start of a busy run for some of the top Heavyweights around the world.

Rumours are strengthening that Deontay Wilder will face Dereck Chisora in London in early April, while both Daniel Dubois and Tyson Fury are both due back in the same month.

The last time Dubois and Fury were out in the ring were in contests against Undisputed Heavyweight King Oleksandr Usyk- at one stage it sounded like Usyk would next defend his status against the aforementioned Deontay Wilder, but that might be revisited later in the year and the Ukrainian may instead face another former Unified Heavyweight Champion in one Andy Ruiz Jr.

That does leave Fabio Wardley and Agit Kabayel looking in from the outside, although it may then make sense for the two to meet instead in a battle of top quality Heavyweights vying to be next in line to take on Oleksandr Usyk.

We do hope to have some news sooner than later with some of the top Promoters looking to announce some of the cards that are coming up in the first half of the year.

Some of those have been released by Matchroom and Queensberry who have some good looking shows for the fans in February and March, while a big fight night has been announced in America headlined by Ryan Garcia three weeks after Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson have squared off at Madison Square Garden.

A big Heavyweight name is not in action this weekend, but we have a World Title fight in the Lightweight Division taking place in Las Vegas, while Zuffa Boxing has its first show on Friday evening.

Credit has to be given to Dana White in announcing at least one more date and another to be rumoured for February, while the signing of Jai Opetaia is of high quality (even if it means having to work with other Promoters, which is not part of the business model).

There are still questions whether this UFC-style model can work in Boxing... Dana White continues to insist he wants to end the control of the Boxing organisations and he is well backed with Turki Alalshikh on board and the start of the Promotional cards will generate plenty of interest.

Raymond Muratalla vs Andy Cruz

Just seven fights into his professional career, Andy Cruz has fast-tracked his way into a World Title fight and he is the favourite this weekend.

At 30 years old, Andy Cruz did not want to wait around after putting together a deep amateur career and he has not eased his way into the pro ranks.

The Lightweight Division has lost some big names in recent years and there is every chance Andy Cruz could soon follow the likes of Shakur Stevenson and Keyshawn Davis in moving into the Light-Welterweight ranks to chase bigger names and challenges.

However, it would be a big mistake to overlook Champion Raymond Muratalla who is unbeaten in twenty-three fights and who has been elevated into full IBF World Champion.

This is another fighter who may choose to leave the Division sooner, rather than later, but Raymond Muratalla will want to show that he has learned plenty from his narrow win over Tevin Farmer and deserves to be recognised as a full World Champion. Criticism of becoming an 'email Champion' has hurt others, but Muratalla did want the big fights in the Division and ultimately it is not his fault that they were not arranged.

There has been plenty to like about the Champion- he has solid punching power, but is also capable of boxing really well and will need all of that if he is going to hold off Andy Cruz.

The blueprint has been given to Cruz by the performance put together by Tevin Farmer, who gave Raymond Muratalla a lot of problems.

Andy Cruz is faster and fresher than the veteran Farmer, and that is expected to be a difference in this Title Fight with the Cuban likely doing enough to secure the victory on the cards.

Working with the Ennis team in Philadelphia means Andy Cruz is more willing to sit down on his punches than you may expect, but the game plan here will be to frustrate the Champion with his skills and movement likely to be really important.

Raymond Muratalla is a very good fighter, but there is this feeling that he might be able to be out-boxed by someone of the talent of Andy Cruz and the likelihood is that the Challenger can become the Champion thanks to the Judges' cards.

It is a solid undercard designed to give some fighters exposure and others a spot to begin the rebuild.

Omari Jones and Israil Madrimov could both earn Stoppages on the undercard, but those prices are plenty short.

The likelihood is that Madrimov is not going to need too much time in the ring to get the better of Luis David Salazar- his opponent has been as low as the Light-Welterweight limit as recently as 2021 and Salazer was fighting at below the Light-Middleweight limit the last time he headed out to the ring.

He has fought at Middleweight before, but Israil Madrimov has been in with a much higher class of opponent and should make a really early statement in this one.

Khalil Coe is also expected to be victorious on the undercard against veteran Jesse Hart, but he missed weight and will lose his USA Light Heavyweight Title on the scales.

He may still put on a solid show to win this one late on, although it is difficult to dismiss the toughness of Hart to be able to get to the cards and at least give the favourite something to think about.

On Friday night, Zuffa Boxing 01 takes place and the first card is headlined by Callum Walsh who has long been aligned with Dana White.

This is one of the names that the new Promotion are looking to build around and the unbeaten fighter put on a good performance on the undercard of the Terence Crawford win over Canelo Alvarez to have more people take interest.

He is only 24 years old and the Irishman may have some real room for development.

Callum Walsh is moving up to Middleweight and will be looking to see if he can carry his power against Carlos Ocampo who has only been beaten in very good company.

The 30 year old Ocampo was blitzed by both Errol Spence Jr and Tim Tsyzu with neither fight lasting more than a single Round, but he did take Sebastian Fundora to the cards.

Carlos Ocampo took eighteen months away from the ring after being blown away by Tim Tszyu in 2023 and has started fighting above the Light-Middleweight limit and he has three wins in a row. Of course it should be stated that those have been at a lower level compared with those defeats and Carlos Ocampo may come up short again, even if Callum Walsh is perhaps not going to be as strong as those fighters that have wins over the Mexican.

However, the younger fighter hits hard and Carlos Ocampo should not make it too difficult for Callum Walsh to find him.

It will be a test for Walsh to see where he is in his career, but this is an opportunity to show people why the upper management at Zuffa Boxing are so keen to get behind him and he can break down Carlos Ocampo for a Stoppage win.

MY PICKS: Andy Cruz to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Israil Madrimov to Win Between 1-2 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Callum Walsh to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2026: 1-2, + 0.74 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.80% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Saturday 24th January)

If it wasn't for a couple of late selections just missing the cover at the end of Day 6, it could have been a truly special day for the Tennis Picks made.

Earlier in the day, Daniil Medvedev had come through in five sets and still managed to cover a big spread, so there was some fortune attached, but unfortunately Tommy Paul was not able to complete a big win that he was on course to achieving when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina withdrew after winning two games in two sets.

The Aryna Sabalenka pick looked unlikely to win very early on as she got herself into a trickier match than it should have been, but overall you can never complain when adding more positive numbers to the totals.

On Saturday there is a heatwave set to hit Melbourne, one that has seen the organisers make a decision to move the starting time to an hour earlier than normal so they can get players on and off the court and leave the middle of the day as empty as possible.

It could mean a late night developing as the Third Round comes to a conclusion, but the safety of the participants and the fans has to be high on the list of priorities and the decision made by the Australian Open to try and get matches through before the hottest part of the day is the right one.

Heat is a factor that can change the outlook of any match as we simply don't know how all players will react to what are usually tough conditions in Melbourne.

This has not been the case so far at the tournament, but also means the incoming heatwave is going to have a serious impact and fatiguing issues can take hold.

Hopefully the players picked can find a way to keep battling through those tough moments.

Day 7 is not nearly as loaded with selections as the previous day, but there remain some solid plays on the card and those can be read below.

There is still some consisderable work to get through if this 2026 season is going to have the strong platform that has been set, especially with the second week yet to get underway at the opening Grand Slam of the season.

Taylor Fritz - 6.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: A little over a decade ago, the top of the ATP Tour was dominated by the 'Big Four', which then included Andy Murray alongside the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

That era is now known as the 'Big Three' with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic separating from the pack, but another player who had every right to be spoken alongside the very best on the Tour at that time is Stan Wawrinka.

He may not have reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but Wawrinka won Grand Slam titles at the other three Majors, including at the 2014 Australian Open. He reached the Semi Final on two other occasions in Melbourne, but the former World Number 3 is two months from celebrating his 41st birthday and Stan Wawrinka has announced he will retire at the end of the 2026 season.

With that in mind, Wawrinka was awarded a Wild Card into the main draw at the Australian Open on his retirement tour, but it is clear that the Swiss player is not ready to go quietly.

He came through in four sets in the First Round and then needed to go the full five sets and spend over four and a half hours on the court to win in the Second Round. Neither match was against an opponent Ranked higher than Number 92 and even a day of rest may not be enough for a 40 year old body to recover as it once did.

So not only does Stan Wawrinka have to overcome fatigue and physical ailments in the Third Round, but he is also taking on World Number 9 Taylor Fritz who has made comfortable progression through the first couple of Rounds here.

Taylor Fritz does not have the same storied history at Grand Slam level compared with his veteran opponent, but the American is expected to have a lot more to give and he should be able to wear down the much older opponent.

He has reached the Quarter Final in Melbourne before, but the overall record at the Australian Open is disappointing for Taylor Fritz considering his qualities on the hard courts. One of the main reasons has been a relatively poor return game, but this match up may not be where that aspect of his tennis is exposed, especially if Wawrinka is struggling with his fitness.

Taylor Fritz should be able to contain much of the threat from the other side of the court behind his serve and it should be noted that the return numbers are significantly better against lower Ranked opponents.

Over the last twelve months, the American has suffered a couple of disappointing defeats on the hard courts, but in the main he has tended to get the better of those he will be expected to beat.

You would think twice about this spread if it was a First Round match, but Stan Wawrinka has already invested so much into the tournament that you have to feel he is worn down and cannot keep up on the scoreboard.

He will not want his last memory of playing on the courts in Melbourne to be a retirement mid-match so you have to believe Stan Wawrinka will bite down and try and finish the contest, even if he is hurting and the last set could be where Taylor Fritz can pull away for the win and cover.

Over the last year, Stan Wawrinka has only played four matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface and he has lost each one, while the service numbers have been severely impacted in those defeats. Even a relatively limited return player like Taylor Fritz should be able to get himself into rallies to wear down the veteran and come through with a solid win.

Jakub Mensik - 1.5 sets v Ethan Quinn: Two young players meet in the Australian Open Third Round on Day 7 of the tournament, but there is no doubting that Jakub Mensik is significantly further along in his development than Ethan Quinn.

This is made simple by the difference in World Ranking- the 20 year old Mensik is the World Number 17 and has won a title in Auckland this season, while his opponent is 21 and the World Number 80 who has failed to Qualify in Brisbane before an opening Round defeat in Adelaide.

However, they are in the same position on Saturday in this Third Round match with the opportunity to reach the second week of a Grand Slam a big boost to the career, especially at this early stage for both.

Neither has yet to play in double digit main draws at Grand Slam level and so there is some pressure on both with the chance to reach the Fourth Round for the first time. In reality both are going to feel this is a winnable match, although the stronger claims are certainly on the side of the higher Ranked player.

After coming through in a fifth set decider in the First Round, Jakub Mensik looked very comfortable in the Second Round.

He will have noted the relative ease in which Ethan Quinn has progressed, including in an upset over Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round, but Mensik will believe his serve gives him a big edge in this contest.

The serve is going to be important on both sides of the net, but Ethan Quinn has struggled to impose that shot on top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months. He has been in good form in this tournament with some suggesting conditions are quick in Melbourne, but Quinn will need to bridge a gap to a player that has very strong serving numbers on the hard courts in 2025.

Jakub Mensik is young though and he was upset in the Second Round at the US Open by a player Ranked way outside the top 100.

On that day he failed to deal with the pressurised moments when the big points came around, but Mensik will take plenty of confidence from the fact he beat Ethan Quinn twice last year and once on the hard courts.

In those two meetings, Jakub Mensik won 65% of service points played compared with Ethan Quinn's 57% mark and that led to a significant advantage of games being held. The hard court meeting in Cincinnati saw Jakub Mensik avoid giving up a single Break Point and you just have to favour the player from Czechia to come through at clutch times in this contest.

There is so much more to come from Ethan Quinn, which makes him dangerous, but at this current stage of their respective developments, Jakub Mensik can come through in three or four sets.

Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Marin Cilic: All credit should be given to another veteran continuing to fight his way through the Tour after Marin Cilic made it through to the Third Round at the 2026 Australian Open.

He was a very solid winner in the Second Round when set as the underdog, but Marin Cilic may need to find another gear if he is going to beat a top 20 Ranked opponent and earn a spot in the second week of the tournament.

The serve remains a big weapon for Marin Cilic, although it is a weapon that becomes harder and harder to impose on the better quality of opponent he faces. While his overall numbers in 2025 on the hard courts saw the Croatian hold 85% of service games played, those numbers dip over the last twelve months to 81% when only factoring in matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents.

However, it is the struggles on the return in those six matches that have really caught the eye and makes this a challenging Third Round match for the 37 year old.

Casper Ruud has played in three Grand Slam Finals, including at the 2022 US Open, but his performances at the Australian Open and US Open tournaments since then have been disappointing. The World Number 13 has only reached the second week at either of the Grand Slam tournaments played on hard courts once since reaching the Final in New York City and that despite his overall numbers on the surface improving in the last couple of years.

Two straight sets wins in Melbourne will have given Ruud confidence and his serve is a big weapon on this surface.

He does have one eye on news from back home where his wife is expecting to give birth at any time and Casper Ruud has stated that he will withdraw from the tournament if that happens over the next few days. This has not been a distraction though and instead the Norwegian is using it as motivation, much like Andy Murray once did, which makes Casper Ruud dangerous.

Unlike the very top names on the Tour, Casper Ruud can be guilty of losing in an upset or two and that has happened on the hard courts over the last twelve months, albeit not all that often.

He was beaten by an opponent Ranked outside the top 100 at the US Open a few months ago, but Ruud has won nine of ten matches against players outside of the top 50 on this surface since then. That includes a comfortable win in the First Round and Casper Ruud is expected to get the better of Marin Cilic on Saturday.

In four previous matches on the Tour, Casper Ruud has beaten the veteran each time, including on the hard courts of Stockholm in October.

The scoreline looks competitive, but Casper Ruud dominated the serving numbers and that has been the case in all four meetings against Marin Cilic.

You can never dismiss the veteran from giving the World Number 13 something to think about as a former Finalist in Melbourne, but Casper Ruud should have enough to avoid dropping two or more sets as he progresses to the Fourth Round here for just the second time in his career.

Karen Khachanov - 5.5 games v Luciano Darderi: The Italian has moved up into the top 30 of the World Rankings and that is partly down to a couple of solid, if unspectacular runs at the last couple of Grand Slam tournaments.

In the main, Luciano Darderi has built his World Ranking on strong clay court results, but it has been a tougher task on the hard courts.

Last year he finished with a 6-15 record on this surface, but Luciano Darderi did reach the Third Round at the US Open and he has done the same at the Australian Open, which suggests he may be getting to grips on how to produce on the hard courts.

However, it remains hard to ignore the fact that Darderi has a 9-29 record on the hard courts prior to his two wins in Melbourne.

Fans of the Italian will state that he is 2-4 when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and Luciano Darderi may feel he can play with more freedom when having 'nothing to lose'. Despite the record, the numbers have not been very favourable though and Darderi is going to be an underdog when facing top 20 Ranked Karen Khachanov, who is very happy when playing on this surface.

The 29 year old may have needed five sets to come through his opening match in Melbourne, but Karen Khachanov had been handed a tough draw. There was little concern in the Second Round win and that should mean Khachanov has plenty in the tank as he prepares to reach the second week in Melbourne for the third time in four years.

His serve is always going to be a potent weapon for Karen Khachanov and he will need to serve well if he is going to win this match.

Karen Khachanov has been on the Tour for some time, but he should be comfortable with his ability on the surface against someone who is still getting to complete grips with top quality tennis on the hard courts.

The Russian has produced decent numbers when not facing top 20 Ranked opponents, and winning 68% of service points in those matches on the hard courts and backing that up with breaks in 25% of return games played gives Karen Khachanov a significant edge.

It is perhaps a surprise that Karen Khachanov has been asked to cover a larger spread than the one he was faced in the Second Round, but the strength of that win is a contributory factor.

However, the underlying feeling is that Khachanov has the hard court know-how to find a way to cover even if he needs four sets to win the match.

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Maddison Inglis: This is not the first time that Australian Maddison Inglis has made it through to the Third Round of her home Grand Slam, but in 2022 she was awarded a Wild Card into the tournament.

Four years later, Maddison Inglis entered the Qualifying Rounds for the Australian Open, as has been the case in each of the last three seasons.

The last couple of years have ended in the final Round of Qualifying, but Inglis battled through to the main draw at this event and has continued to dig in to earn another run to the Third Round. This is going to help improve the World Ranking, which currently sits at Number 168, and the Australian has already beaten four players Ranked higher than herself to reach the Third Round.

However, none of the wins have been against anyone Ranked higher than Number 48 and this time Maddison Inglis is taking on a two time former Champion of this event.

Naomi Osaka has not been at her best in the first couple of Rounds, but she has found a way to move through the draw and that is an improvement on some of the early results she had when returning to the Tour. There is certainly more belief within the World Number 17, although Osaka may have to have found a way to ignore the criticisms that have been aimed at her for some of the on-court behaviour in the win over Sorana Cirstea.

She has apologised for what some believed to be gamesmanship and the challenge for Naomi Osaka is remaining focused and not worrying too much about what others may think.

This challenge only increases considering this is likely to be a match played in an atmosphere where the home player is going to be loudly backed by the crowd.

If she can lock in, Naomi Osaka should have too much for an opponent who had a career 1-11 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts before beating Laura Siegemund in the Second Round.

In eight of those eleven defeats, Maddison Inglis would not have won enough games to get within the spread set for this Third Round match.

Naomi Osaka does need to improve if she is going to have a serious impact at the business end of this tournament, but her current level is expected to be too much for the Australian.

Over the last twelve months, Osaka has won six of seven hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 100 and four of those would have seen her cover the spread like this one.

The reality is that Naomi Osaka's level should be too much for a veteran in Maddison Inglis who will be well supported, but who has to find a number of gears to remain competitive.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Jakub Mensik - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365

Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Linda Noskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ben Shelton - 1.5 Sets @ 1.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 23-10, + 17.36 Units (66 Units Staked, + 26.30% Yield)