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NFL Week 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November-Monday 18th November)

It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Thursday, 30 June 2022

Wimbledon Tennis Day 4 Picks 2022 (June 30th)

I mentioned I would not have a very long thread for Day 4 at Wimbledon and that has proven to be the case.

You can see the Picks I have below as well as the updated record for the week.


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maxime Cressy-Jack Sock Over 42.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Katie Boulter + 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ajla Tomljanovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon 2022: 26-18, + 11.58 Units (88 Units Staked, + 13.16% Yield)

Wednesday, 29 June 2022

Wimbledon Tennis Day 3 Picks 2022 (June 29th)

The rain on Monday has meant the Wimbledon tournament is slightly behind schedule and four Ladies matches have yet to be completed in the First Round.

A wet morning in London will likely mean a delayed start to the Day 3 play and the start of the Second Round as the fans look out for more drama after two pretty strong days.

Both Wednesday and Thursday looks like they will be days impacted by the weather and I am not sure I am going to have the time to research and prepare any Picks from the Day 4 schedule. I will know more about that by the end of play on Wednesday, regardless of the results, but I should have a fuller thread for Day 5 when the Third Round and any remaining Second. Round matches are set to be played.

In this thread I am placing my Second Round Picks from the Wimbledon matches that are scheduled to be played on Wednesday.


MY PICKS: Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ryan Peniston - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely @ 2.37 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tim Van Rijthoven @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marie Bouzkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Diane Parry - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon 2022: 17-13, + 3.96 Units (60 Units Staked, + 6.60% Yield)

Tuesday, 28 June 2022

Wimbledon Tennis Day 2 Picks 2022 (June 28th)

I've never really understood why Wimbledon insist on such a late start on the two main courts, especially on wetter days when there is every chance they could send one or two matches onto those courts late in the day and play the matches under the roof.

I understand they want to keep the tournament as an 'open air' event for as much as possible, but it is starting to become the only one of the four Grand Slams that regularly has multiple matches failing to be completed in the early Rounds of the tournament. That means some players are going to be forced to play on back to back days and that is something that hurts the Men in particularly if they are dragged into a long five setter.

The reality is that there isn't much Wimbledon could have done about the rain, but wet conditions remain in London until the back end of the week, but the remainder of the tournament should be dry and allow the players to finish matches as scheduled.


One or two upsets have already been seen in the First Round and Wimbledon did provide a couple of very entertaining five set matches on Monday- Carlos Alcaraz survived, but Hubert Hurkacz was dumped out of the draw despite fighting back to force a decider from a position where Alejandro Davidovich Fokina had three straight match points for a straight sets victory.

The Women's draw is wide open, but Angie Kerber and Ons Jabeur both made their way into the Second Round and the other halves of the draws will get going on a dryer looking Tuesday.


Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: It has been three years since we last saw Rafael Nadal on the grass courts when he was a beaten Semi Finalist against rival Roger Federer, and a few weeks ago it felt like the Spaniard might be missing Wimbledon yet again.

A foot issue had meant playing through the pain at the French Open, although winning the second Grand Slam of the season is arguably the best medication he could have received. A couple of weeks of testing things out have resulted in Rafael Nadal deciding he will head to SW19 and the Calendar Grand Slam remains a real possibility, especially with Novak Djokovic set to miss out on the US Open barring a late change in governmental policy in the States.

Winning Wimbledon is arguably the biggest challenge Rafael Nadal faces on the Tour these days with the grass courts not ideal for the ailments he is regularly dealing with. In saying that, Nadal has reached the Semi Final in each of his last two visits to Wimbledon and the draw looks to be a good one to open his run.

Take nothing away from Francisco Cerundolo who has reached a career high World Ranking, but there is also no doubt that he is an inexperienced grass court player and facing someone like Nadal is going to be a mental test as much as a physical one. Any clay courter coming up will have admired Rafael Nadal and I don't think it will be much different for Cerundolo, which makes it a challenge to compete against the aura on the other side of the net.

Last year Francisco Cerundolo was beaten in the Third Qualifying Round at Wimbledon and his current Number 42 World Ranking underlines the improvement the 23 year old has made on the Tour. There is still work to do to understand the way to approach his tennis on the grass courts and the warm up events saw Francisco Cerundolo win just 58% of his service points in the three matches played.

That is a number that Rafael Nadal will be happy to see- it gives him a chance to find his rhythm on the court and it has been players that have the huge shots that have given him most trouble on the grass courts in recent times. It is not the case in this First Round match and I do think Rafael Nadal will be comfortable with the tennis he is going to have to play to win the match.

Rafael Nadal has not played on the grass since 2019, not in a competitive event anyway, but his serve has been strong in his last couple of visits to Wimbledon. He has been able to back that up with strong return play too and this is a player who will not take a point off when he enters the court, something that is likely going to wear down Francisco Cerundolo over the course of a couple of hours on Centre Court.


Matteo Berrettini - 7.5 games v Cristian Garin: From the first moments stepping on a grass court, Matteo Berrettini has felt comfortable on the surface. However, his rise to become one of the very best players on the surface over the last thirteen months has been impressive and there won't be many backing against the Italian reaching the Final at Wimbledon for the second season in succession.

He won the title at Queens Club in 2021, but it might have felt like the warm up events were going to be used to just rebuild some rhythm on the court after Matteo Berrettini missed the entirety of the clay court season with an injury. Once again, the love of the grass has shone through though and Matteo Berrettini has won the title in Stuttgart and Queens over the last three weeks, which means he comes into the third Grand Slam of the season with plenty of momentum.

Matteo Berrettini will always be tough to beat on the surface thanks to the monster serve he possesses- in 2019, 2021 and 2022, the service numbers have been remarkably similar and Berrettini is holding 92% of service games played in each of those seasons.

The improvement from 2019 to the last thirteen months has clearly been in the return game and Matteo Berrettini has become an effective player on that side of his tennis on the grass courts. When you are holding service games and winning as many points behind serve at the standard Matteo Berrettini is you don't need to break serve multiple times to win matches, but the Italian has improved to breaking in 21% of return games played.

Scoreboard pressure is as much to deal with as the quality of the Berrettini tennis and it is a huge challenge for Cristian Garin who lost both grass court matches in preparation for Wimbledon. The Chilean is a former top 20 Ranked player so has to be respected, but Cristian Garin has had mixed results on the faster surfaces and facing someone like Berrettini is a huge step up compared with the players that have beaten him over the last month.

Cristian Garin is not expected to get a lot of joy out of his return, but his own serve has been lacking the kind of bite he would want and I do think Matteo Berrettini may continue his recent dominance of their head to head.

The Italian has won the last two matches between these players, although they last met in May 2021, and Matteo Berrettini has held 87% of service games played compared with Cristian Garin's 60% mark in those matches. On the grass courts there may be a wider gap between the players and I think Matteo Berrettini will secure a strong opening win in SW19.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Maxime Cressy Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brandon Nakashima - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Emil Ruusuvuori - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marcos Giron - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dan Evans - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Viktorija Golubic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ajla Tomljanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

UPDATED PICK: Cristian Garin - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 8-7 , - 0.28 Units (30 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Sunday, 26 June 2022

Wimbledon Tennis Day 1 Picks 2022 (June 27th)

And just like that, the third Grand Slam of the 2022 Tennis season is set to begin.

It feels like only yesterday we were dealing with the 'will he or won't he?' drama at the Australian Open surrounding Novak Djokovic's participation, but now we are more than halfway through the season.

Rafael Nadal has been the player who benefited the most from Djokovic's absence in Melbourne as he won his 21st Grand Slam title to move ahead of the Serb and Roger Federer, but he then doubled down by winning in Paris and the Calendar Slam remains a possibility.

In reality I think it will be very difficult, especially with the Nadal half of the draw loaded with the grass court threats that Novak Djokovic has avoided. The defending Champion has not lost a match at Wimbledon since 2017 having won the titles here in 2018, 2019 and 2021 and Novak Djokovic is the favourite to win a seventh title in SW19 to move alongside Pete Sampras and Federer.

He can play his way into the tournament and I think he will be the player to beat, although Matteo Berrettini may feel he can go one better than last season when beaten by Djokovic in the Final. That could be the Final in 2022 and I do think the Italian will be happier with his potential route to the Final much more than Rafael Nadal who heads up the bottom half of the draw.

A dark horse to make the big breakthrough could be Felix Auger-Aliassime and at around 16-1 I do think he will give you a real run for your money. However, the draw could have been much kinder with Maxime Cressy first up for the Canadian fresh off his run to the Eastbourne Final, and the likes of Taylor Fritz, Marin Cilic and Nadal make up a tough Quarter.


Iga Swiatek has quickly established herself as the best player in the world on the WTA side of the Tour since Ashleigh Barty abruptly retired and the World Number 1 is a clear favourite to win the Wimbledon title to add to the French Open crown won earlier this month.

The lack of grass court tennis to prepare is a bit of a concern for someone who is playing for just the third time at Wimbledon and who has previously lost in the First Round and the Fourth Round. There is a mental edge that Swiatek will hold over the rest of the field, but I think someone like Alize Cornet could be a potential problem in the Third Round as long as she has overcome whatever she was dealing with at the end of her Semi Final in Bad Homburg last week (I think it was cramp rather than anything more sinister).

There are some big names that could also be waiting to end the Iga Swiatek winning run, but most of those will be avoided until the Semi Final at the earliest, by which time Swiatek could be in supreme form.

Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep and a returning Serena Williams are all potential Semi Final opponents and all of those have won the Wimbledon title so know what it takes for grass court success.

Cori Gauff is another player who has shown she is well adept at playing on the grass and coming out of that Quarter of the draw will be a huge challenge. It may also mean Iga Swiatek is in a position to sweep off her Semi Final opponent if they have been taxed as much as they may be before they reach that final four stage.

The headlines will be initially all about Serena Williams and I do think the draw has given her a chance to play her way into the tournament. The early Rounds are not that intimidating and the American looked to be moving pretty well in Eastbourne, albeit with the help of a Doubles partner.

It would be the story of all stories if Williams was to return and win the tournament, but I think she will end up coming up short either in the Third or Fourth Round.

It feels like a top loaded draw at Wimbledon in the Ladies Singles, but there are some serious names in the bottom who will feel they have benefited from avoiding those mentioned.

Angelique Kerber is a former Champion here and continues to play strong grass court tennis, while Beatriz Haddad Maia has been the form grass court player of the summer and could not have hand-picked a much better draw for herself.

The Brazilian may have to deal with a solid grass courter in Belinda Bencic in the Third Round, but the latter had to withdraw from Berlin with an injury and may not be at 100%. With Anett Kontaveit the highest Seed in the Quarter, Beatriz Haddad Maia has to feel she has all of the tools to go very deep and I fully expect her to have her best ever Grand Slam result having never made it to the Third Round previously.

Beating Bencic may really open things up for Beatriz Haddad Maia, while I also think Jelena Ostapenko has a real opportunity here as a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist.

All of the journalists will be looking at Emma Raducanu, but injury and an awful First Round draw makes it hard to believe she can have as deep a run as 2021.

The favourite to come out of the section and reach the Final is Ons Jabeur, but she did not deal with the pressure very well in Paris, and I do wonder if she can cope this time. She does have a couple of Quarter Final runs at Grand Slams under her belt, but I think she is short enough as the second favourite to win the Wimbledon title.

Purely on the odds, Angie Kerber looks a massive price at 33-1 to win the title here and I certainly think she could have a very strong run having reached the Semi Final here last season and twice reaching the Final.


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Soon Woo Kwon: It has been a difficult season for Novak Djokovic beginning with the debacle around his participation at the Australian Open, while some of his team were a little critical of his performance in losing the French Open Quarter Final against Rafael Nadal.

He is the top Seed at Wimbledon in the third Grand Slam of the season after the decision had been made to ban Daniil Medvedev (and the other Russian and Belarusian players on the Tour), while Alexander Zverev misses out with an injury suffered in the French Open Semi Final. Novak Djokovic may feel he deserves his spot at the top of the Men's draw having won the Wimbledon title in each of the last three runnings of the event and he has won twenty-one straight matches in this part of London.

The Serb played an exhibition event last week to prepare for Wimbledon, but Novak Djokovic decided to avoid playing any competitive grass court tennis before opening Centre Court on Monday. While some players may need some time to get used to playing on the grass, it hasn't really affected Novak Djokovic in the past and he didn't play any warm up events before winning the title here in 2021.

He did drop the first set of his First Round match against young British hope Jack Draper twelve months ago, but Djokovic breezed through the next three sets. That was one of just two sets dropped at Wimbledon in 2021 and I do think we will see Novak Djokovic break into his stride pretty quickly on a court he will feel is his own these days.

First up for the top Seed is Soon Woo Kwon who has dropped into World Number 75 and who has been well beaten in both grass court matches played in preparation for Wimbledon. Soon Woo Kwon has struggled with his serve on the grass in those defeats with just 56% of service points won and that has led to holds in under 60% of service games played.

On a surface like grass, that is a pretty poor number, although I do think Soon Woo Kwon is a better server than he has shown in his defeats to Christopher O'Connell and Hugo Gaston this summer.

The serve has been put under pressure when Soon Woo Kwon has faced a top 50 opponent on the Tour in 2022 and the big problem for him is trying to recover breaks of serve. On the face of things you may not consider Novak Djokovic to be one of the top servers on the Tour, but it is a potent weapon for him and I do think the defending Champion is going to be putting this opponent under an immense amount of pressure during this match.

Novak Djokovic and Soon Woo Kwon met on the clay courts last season and the former crushed his opponent with five breaks of serve and only facing a single break point. Early Rounds of a Grand Slam can be difficult to cover numbers of this size on the handicap, but Novak Djokovic has won his last three First Round matches at Wimbledon by margins of 12, 8 and 11 game margins.

I am expecting Djokovic to earn the multiple breaks of serve needed to cover this mark and he can put down a marker as he begins the defence of the Wimbledon title for a fourth time in a row.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v James Duckworth: The injury sustained in Stuttgart looked to have come at a very bad time for Andy Murray after a couple of impressive weeks on the grass courts. He had decided to skip much of the clay court season in order to be well prepared for Wimbledon and reached the Final in Surbiton and Stuttgart and looked well on the way to being Seeded in SW19.

The injury in the Final in Stuttgart meant Murray had to withdraw from the tournament in Queens and some felt he may even be forced to miss Wimbledon, which would have been a major blow for the former World Number 1. The tennis looked to be in a good place in his two grass court tournaments and the positive noises coming from the camp have to be encouraging for Murray who has landed in a decent portion of the draw.

A big question for Andy Murray is whether the serve has been affected by the injury- he had been winning 70% of points behind serve and holding in 91% of service games played on the grass and the former Wimbledon Champion will be the first to admit how important it will be to serve well if he is going to have a real impact in the tournament.

At his best, Andy Murray was a hugely successful return player, but he has only been breaking in 18% of return games played on the grass this season. That is a mark that is someway below his 2021 numbers, and it is definitely an area that Andy Murray will want to improve here.

The First Round sees Murray paired with James Duckworth who has been plenty successful on the grass courts himself, albeit at a different kind of level than Andy Murray. This season has been a little disappointing for James Duckworth having lost three matches in a row before Qualifying for Eastbourne and being beaten in the First Round of the main draw there.

His defeats to Paul Jubb and Gilles Simon are particularly disheartening and James Duckworth has struggled with his return on the surface, while holding 83% of service games played. The problem for the Australian is that his numbers have largely been built around playing opponents outside the top 50 of the World Rankings and I expect him to have some reservations about playing an opponent like Andy Murray.

Their two previous matches have been won by the British player relatively comfortably.

Both of those were played a long time ago, but it was clear that Andy Murray was able to exert a lot of pressure on James Duckworth thanks to the serve and return. While his return has not been at the level of old on the grass in 2022, I do think the best of five set format gives Andy Murray a chance to build the pressure on James Duckworth over the course of this First Round match and the spread looks to be a game or two lower than where I had it.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniel Altmaier @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ryan Peniston - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Julie Niemeier - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martina Trevisan - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Saturday, 25 June 2022

Boxing Picks 2022- Jesse Rodriguez vs Wisaksil Wangek (June 25th)

There really isn't anything more you can say about THAT Artur Beterbiev performance that hasn't already been said over the last week.

I think many would have predicted that Beterbiev's power will eventually prevail against Joe Smith Jr, but the latter is teak-tough so to see him obliterated in two Rounds is stunning to say the least. You have to believe that Artur Beterbiev will be moving up the pound for pound list, while he reminded everyone that he is still the man to beat in the Light Heavyweight Division even after Dmitry Bivol's strong win against Canelo Alvarez.

Unlike Bivol, Artur Beterbiev crushed a legitimate Light Heavyweight Champion and I would still favour him over Dmitry Bivol, although any Undisputed Title clash looks to have to wait until 2023 at the very least.

Both Russian fighters will likely be heading to the United Kingdom before the end of the calendar year to clear away some mandatories and Dmitry Bivol may still be in line for a rematch with Canelo, a much more lucrative fight than risking it all against Artur Beterbiev. We will see how it all shakes up with those fighters over the course of the next twelve months, but I will say that all British fans should be looking to see the two Light Heavyweight Champions if they do end up on these shores.


This weekend we have an absolutely stacked card coming out of Texas where three World Titles are on the line (would have been four, but for an injury to Julio Cesar Martinez) and the top of the bill looks like a really good fight.

We also have a card in the United Kingdom earlier in the night which is headed up by Sam Eggington and Adam Azim as Sky Sports and Boxxer continue to build the profile of their new look stable.



Jesse Rodriguez vs Wisaksil Wangek

A few months ago, Wisaksil Wangnek had to withdraw from the latest fight between four in the Super Flyweight Division who have given the fans plenty of entertainment over the years.

That opened the door for Jesse Rodriguez to not only move up in weight, but on short notice and the 22 year old became the youngest active World Champion when beating Carlos Cuadras on the cards.

He knocked him down on his way to that victory and it has meant Jesse Rodriguez has decided to stay at this weight and defend the World Title he won in February. Some may have opted to take an easier test, but Jesse Rodriguez has underlined his character by giving Sor Rungvisai his shot that was missed a few months back.

A former World Champion, Wisaksil Wangek has the big wins over Roman Gonzalez that brought him to prominence and also holds a victory over Juan Francisco Estrada. He did lose the rematch with the Mexican having made a strange decision to box from the orthodox stance, but it was a close fight and three relatively easy wins have been earned at a lower level since then.

He is 35 years old now and you do have to wonder how much is left in the tank, but this does feel a big step up for Jesse Rodriguez.

The win over Carlos Cuadras is a respectable one, but there were other factors to consider- for starters he had not been in the ring for sixteen months since being stopped for the first time in his career by Juan Francisco Estrada. He had also been beaten in half of his previous six fights and I think Sor Rungvisai would have done a pretty strong number on him if they had faced off as scheduled.

In saying that, it is a win that will have given Jesse Rodriguez confidence and another win here will set him up for some more huge fights in the months ahead. He may see the Estrada win over Wangek as the blueprint to follow, but I would be surprised if the veteran gets his tactics as badly wrong as he did that day and instead I think he will go back to the tried and tested methods which saw him win a World Title against a future Hall of Famer and defending it very well too.

Bam Bam is going to be a force for years to come in and around this Division, but I still think Sor Rungvisai has something to say in the Super Flyweight ranks. His experience could be key and his physicality will be something that Rodriguez has not faced before and I just feel the former World Champion is being dismissed a bit too easily for my liking, at least by the oddsmakers.


We should see Jessica McCaskill retain her World Titles, but there isn't much in the prices that makes anything appealing. The likelihood is she will win a Unanimous Decision on the cards, but the layers have priced that up very short and instead my focus is on the World Titles being defended in the Super Bantamweight Division.

Murodjon Akhmadaliev is defending his World Titles against Ronny Rios, who has only been beaten by the best, and MJ is looking for a win that may set up an Undisputed bout at this level against Stephen Fulton.

We have seen him called out by Fulton following the American's win over Daniel Roman, but Murodjon Akhmadaliev has to focus on himself and make sure he remains a World Champion.

MJ took the World Title from the aforementioned Daniel Roman, and I do think he will have too much power for Ronny Rios.

The latter has won four in a row since being stopped by Azat Hovhannisyan and it is perhaps the win over unbeaten Diego De La Hoya which has pushed him back into this position. However, Ronny Rios has been beaten when stepping up to this kind of level and has twice been stopped, while the 32 year old may not have the resistance he once did.

I don't want to dismiss Ronny Rios easily, but I do think Akhmadaliev will be able to produce a statement win to put himself in a position to call out Stephen Fulton behind a win someway around the middle of this fight.


We have a number of younger fighters on the card in Coventry on Saturday night and many of the fights are expected to be one-sided, showcase short of deals.

Adam Azim has a big reputation and is expected to win another bout in impressive style as he continues his climb in the professional ranks, but the layers are expecting a very early night too.

His opponent looked like he couldn't wait to get this fight over and done with and I think you can back Azim to win very early and start to fulfil Shane McGuigan's hopes of seeing his talented fighter put a streak of KOs together.

Further Picks from this card will come from Dylan Cheema and Sam Eggington headlined bouts.

After winning the Boxxer Tournament and signing up with the promotion and Sky Sports, Dylan Cheema is ready to really get his career going. He is going to be well backed by the promotion, but also the Sikh and Punjabi community and there is an excitement about what and where Cheema can go.

He is fighting Stu Greener who has lost eight of his twelve pro bouts, although 'Little Canelo' is coming in off a victory. Three of the eight defeats have been in stoppages in the first two Rounds and that includes losses to unbeaten Mark Chamberlain and Adam Azim.

We don't really know the kind of power that Dylan Cheema possesses with a single stoppage in five wins, but he is spiteful enough and I think Greener has been picked as someone he can physically impose himself on.

With a build towards a huge domestic fight with Azim likely being set up, I think it is worth a small interest in backing Dylan Cheema to win this one in the Second Round to match The Assassin's win over Greener.

I also like Sam Eggington's chances of beating an unbeaten opponent who has never fought outside Poland and who will not be used to the kind of output and stamina that Eggington will put on him from Round One.

Przemyslaw Zsyk has only been Ten Rounds once before and this fight has been scheduled for Twelve Rounds- I am not sure he will be ready to deal with the pressure that Eggington can put on opponents and I think the 28 year old can win this one inside the distance.

His up and down career makes it hard to fully know how much Sam Eggington will have left if he does get up to the World level, but I think he is going to be given every chance to do that. I expect his all-action pressure to break down Zsyk and a Stoppage can be earned.

MY PICKS: Wisaksil Wangek to Win @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Murodjon Akhmadaliev to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.75 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Adam Azim to Win in the First Round @ 2.37 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Dylan Cheema to Win in the Second Round @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Sam Eggington to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2022 Update: 25-38, + 19.86 Units (114 Units Staked, + 17.42% Yield)

Friday, 24 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 25th)

The four tournaments being played in three different venues will come to a conclusion on Saturday as the attention has firmly turned to the end of the grass court season.

Everything culminates with the third Grand Slam tournament of the 2022 season as Wimbledon is set to begin on Monday and it looks like we will have two largely dry weeks in South West London.

I will have fuller thoughts on the two draws and potential winners in the Day 1 Picks for the tournament that will get underway soon, but this thread is focused on the conclusion of the warm up events with four Finals scheduled to be played on Saturday.

After a mixed Friday, I am only focusing on the two WTA Finals to be played in Eastbourne and Bad Homburg before my own attention also shifts to Wimbledon. It has been a solid week for the Tennis Picks and one I am looking to round off with a flourish.


Petra Kvitova v Jelena Ostapenko: The two time Wimbledon Champion has come into form at a good time, although I am never convinced that winning a tournament in the week prior to a Grand Slam is the best timing. In saying that, Petra Kvitova needed to pick up some confidence and I am a little surprised to see her set as the underdog in the Final in Eastbourne.

I have to credit the defending Champion Jelena Ostapenko for producing a strong week and she has long been an effective grass court player. The former French Open Champion has a big, aggressive game that is well suited to the surface and Jelena Ostapenko has enjoyed considerable success on the grass courts.

Her numbers have backed that up in recent seasons on the grass, but there is no doubting how much Petra Kvitova enjoys playing on the green stuff herself.

The consistency has been lacking over the last twelve months, but Petra Kvitova has found her serve this week and she has some strong wins behind her. The Semi Final victory over Beatriz Haddad Maia is particularly impressive considering how well the Brazilian has been playing on the grass and Petra Kvitova will feel her serve can at least contain some of the aggressive returning that will be produced by Jelena Ostapenko.

She is also getting plenty of first serves in play to make things a bit easier, while Jelena Ostapenko's first serve percentage will need to be significantly improved to avoid having an aggressive Kvitova get after the second serve. If the firsts are landing, Ostapenko can play first-strike tennis in a Final that should see both players looking to get on the front foot and pile the pressure on their opponent.

I do think that is where the high percentage of first serves landing will give Petra Kvitova an edge, although Jelena Ostapenko has been the stronger returner of the two.

Jelena Ostapenko looks to be peaking in time for the Final, but Petra Kvitova has only faced two break points since her Third Round win over Katie Boulter. I think that is key to the outcome of this one and I think Petra Kvitova will overturn a tight loss to Jelena Ostapenko from their sole meeting in 2022 which came on the hard courts in Dubai.

The Czech lefty was unfortunate that day, but I think she is playing well enough to earn the edges in this Final and can win as the underdog.


Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Caroline Garcia: The benefit of having a walkover in the Semi Final will have helped Bianca Andreescu in winning this Final, but I also think she has been playing the stronger grass court tennis of the two competing.

I am a little biased towards Bianca Andreescu as a big fan of her tennis, but her numbers have backed up a decent run on the grass courts and I think she could have a strong impact at Wimbledon next week. That will be the focus for the Canadian, but she will also be aware that Angelique Kerber used a title win here to reach the last four at Wimbledon last year and so winning the Bad Homburg tournament could be a huge boost for Bianca Andreescu.

She is up against Caroline Garcia who needed almost three hours on court to win her Semi Final on Friday, while it cannot be ignored that the fortune has been on the side of the Frenchwoman in her run to this Final.

I have to credit Garcia for playing the big points as well as she has, but the margins are tight and she will need to overcome some fatigue, emotional and physical, to be able to win the big points in this one too. Running out of energy will be a tough obstacle to overcome for Caroline Garcia against someone like Bianca Andreescu, while the serve will have to be working as it has been in the last couple of Rounds.

Caroline Garcia has saved twenty-four out of twenty-eight break points faced in her last three matches, but it is hard to imagine her continuing to get out of those jams consistently. In the Final she will be facing a player who has found at least three breaks of serve in every match played on the grass in 2022 and Bianca Andreescu has put a lot of pressure on her opponents by winning 46% of return points played on the surface over the last month.

Her own serve can be a little inconsistent, but Caroline Garcia is not exactly the most dominant of return players and I do think Bianca Andreescu can contain her threat. In her three wins here this week, the former US Open Champion has only been broken three times and has faced just ten break points, which is fewer than Caroline Garcia had to face in just her Quarter Final match alone.

With the additional time to rest, Bianca Andreescu looks like she has all the tools to win her first title since that aforementioned US Open in 2019 as the Canadian begins her climb back to the kind of level she belongs amongst the very elite of the WTA Tour.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 33-26, + 6.06 Units (116 Units Staked, + 5.22% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 24th)

The Wimbledon draw will be made bright and early on Friday morning with the tournament set to begin on Monday- the weather is forecasted for a pretty good two weeks in London and I think it should be a decent third Grand Slam of the season, even after the decision to ban certain nationalities and with the Ranking points removed.

It is a crucial draw for many and I will have a few more thoughts about that on Sunday when I should have the Day 1 Picks thread up.

For now the focus is on rounding out this week and a strong Thursday has put the Tennis Picks in a position to finish with a solid positive number.

All the Semi Final matches are scheduled to be played on Friday with the four Finals set to for a Saturday finish so all players can make their way to SW19 and be ready to compete.


MY PICKS: Maxime Cressy @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut-Antoine Bellier Over 20.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 30-22, + 8.98 Units (102 Units Staked, + 8.80% Yield)

Thursday, 23 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 23rd)

It was a mixed day which looked like it was going to be a really bad one for a long time as those inches I've talked about were all going against me.

A late rally prevented it being a really poor day, but I am looking for better results to take into the final three days of the events being played this week and then to carry that forward into Wimbledon.

I have a right to be a touch irritated with the way a couple of the losing Picks came about- Tallon Griekspoor won, but I could never have imagined him losing a set 6-0, while Dan Evans had a chance to get back on serve in the second set at 5-4, 0-40, and that would have been enough for the two setter to cover the total games line set.

All of the Quarter Final matches are scheduled to be played on Thursday, but there are wetter conditions around in Eastbourne and Mallorca and it may mean delays or matches having to be moved to the outside courts to make sure the tournament is down to the final four in both the ATP and WTA event being played there by the time the day's play is completed.


Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Tommy Paul: For most players the focus will have turned to Wimbledon and making sure they are ready to compete at the third Grand Slam of the season, but that is a tournament without Ranking points. There will be a number of players that will be disappointed to have heard the news, but it also means that some are out there this week looking to make sure they produce some healthy results in order to avoid a massive drop in the Rankings.

Motivation for Alex De Minaur shouldn't be a problem having won the title here in Eastbourne last year and knowing that he suffered a First Round exit at Wimbledon. That defeat may mean he is not as keen to have to dig deep over the next couple of days, but the fact he is looking after some big Ranking points should help keep the Australian focused.

With days remaining until Wimbledon begins, you have to factor in the motivational angles and I do think the defending Champion will want to pick up another title here. Alex De Minaur has played well in his two wins in the tournament and is clearly enjoying the conditions, although it will feel different on Thursday with the rain cooling the temperature down, while De Minaur may not be exactly sure where he will be playing this match.

That shouldn't affect the mindset as Alex De Minaur takes on Tommy Paul for the third time in 2022 having won the previous two matches in straight sets. This is the third surface on which Paul and De Minaur will be competing, but the latter has long suggested grass is his favourite of the surfaces on which the Tour is played and I am not sure the same can be said for Tommy Paul.

The American had not played any grass court tennis since 2019, but he did reach the Quarter Final in London last week and has backed that up with another couple of wins in Eastbourne. However, Tommy Paul has not been the most convincing of performer and has perhaps benefited from the small margins edging his way at key times during matches to earn the victories.

Tommy Paul has held 85% of his service games played on the grass this season, but he is only winning 63% of the points played behind that shot. Those are decent enough numbers, although the main problem for Tommy Paul is his limited return game on the grass and I do think Alex De Minaur can largely keep him under pressure with his own serve.

Alex De Minaur has won 66% of his points played behind serve, but he has only held 81% of his service games and that is largely down to a really poor effort on the break points. He has faced nineteen break points in his four grass court matches, but De Minaur has been broken ten times and you do have to feel he has to get better on those pressure points against someone like Tommy Paul who has broken in 16% of return games.

There is no doubt that Alex De Minaur has been the more efficient return player and that has also shown up in their head to head matches this season with the Australian holding 81% of service games compared with Tommy Paul's 69% mark and I think that will also be the case in this Quarter Final.

It can be tough to really be confident in Alex De Minaur, but he does tend to beat the players expected and I think he will have too much for Tommy Paul who has ridden his luck at times to put together the wins he has this past month.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 21-19, - 0.54 Units (78 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Wednesday, 22 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 22nd)

All of the events being played this week are scheduled to be concluded on Saturday, a couple of days before Wimbledon begins.

That means the middle of the week is perhaps busier than usual with the the tournaments looking to whittle down to the last eight ahead of the Thursday Quarter Finals. A busy day means a fair few Tennis Picks from the matches set to be played as I look for a slightly more consistent day after a mixed Tuesday.

Some of the matches have not been priced up at the time of writing and any Picks will be added to this thread as those markets are released.


Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 games v Alex Molcan: He may not be the player he once was, but beating Feliciano Lopez on a grass court is still a tough challenge and Tallon Griekspoor has to be credited for keeping himself focused to secure the victory through a couple of tie-breakers. The raw numbers showed it was a tough day in the office with the Lopez serve a difficult shot to deal with, but Tallon Griekspoor served well enough himself and that is going to be an important shot for him over the next couple of weeks.

Ultimately the return is where Griekspoor is going to have difficulties in progressing his career if he cannot find a bit more out of that side of his game. On the faster surfaces it has been a real issue for the Dutchman and it has been the case during this grass court season with just 31% of points won on the return and that has led to 11% of return games ending in a break of serve.

It has not prevented Tallon Griekspoor winning five of the seven grass court matches played this month and that is down to the 94% of service games being held to build scoreboard pressure.

He is much more experienced than Alex Molcan, one of the improving players on the Tour, although the Slovakian has earned a solid win over Miomir Kecmanovic in the First Round here in Mallorca. The serve is an important shot for Alex Molcan on all surfaces and he has been pounding through those games efficiently in his two grass court matches, although the question for him is the same for his opponent and that is finding a way to improve the returning side of his game.

The two grass court matches has seen Alex Molcan break in just 9% of return games played as he has won 29% of return points played.

This will be a match that is going to be won and lost in the small margins, but Tallon Griekspoor may hold the mental edge having beaten Alex Molcan a couple of times on the Tour already. One of those wins came in Halle last week and Tallon Griekspoor has yet to be broken in their two previous matches, while the inches have been with him on the return.

Tallon Griekspoor has created fifteen break points compared with Alex Molcan's two in their previous matches and that includes a four to one edge last week in Halle. The Dutchman looks like he could hold the slight edge in this one too and I think his serving will build enough scoreboard pressure to find a way to edge past Alex Molcan and cover this line set for the Second Round match.


Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: The World Ranking points are being removed from Wimbledon 2021 over the next couple of weeks and that could have a significant impact on Denis Shapovalov who reached the Semi Final at that event. There are no Ranking points on offer at Wimbledon this year and the Canadian has had a mixed season to this point which means a drop in the World Ranking was expected any way.

He will be Seeded at Wimbledon, but it is important for Denis Shapovalov to try and build some confidence and momentum this week in Mallorca. I am a little surprised he decided to leave England to take in this tournament rather than playing in Eastbourne (or playing Halle rather than Queens last week), but Denis Shapovalov is looking for positive results on the court and a change in conditions may suit him.

Last year Denis Shapovalov really enjoyed his time on the grass, but the loss of confidence since then has contributed to him losing his first match in Stuttgart and London. He has not played badly, but the pressure points have not been played as he would have liked and it has meant Denis Shapovalov has lost matches perhaps a little undeservingly so.

Ultimately you only get the results that you can cross over the line and Denis Shapovalov will need to serve well and hope that can put him in a position to win this match. The Canadian has held 88% of his service games played over the last couple of grass tournaments and was at 89% last season when reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final, but Denis Shapovalov has struggled on the return.

He is going to be tested on that side of his tennis by Benjamin Bonzi who has a solid 13-4 record on the grass courts, although the Frenchman has built that largely against players Ranked outside the top 100. In fact, Benjamin Bonzi has a 2-3 record against top 100 Ranked players on this surface, although you should not ignore the fact that both of those were recorded over the last couple of weeks and Bonzi did push Stefanos Tsitsipas to three sets in a defeat in Halle.

Benjamin Bonzi has held 95% of his service games played on the grass in 2022, while he certainly has gotten a bit more out of his return than Denis Shapovalov. He created ten break points against a decent server like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Benjamin Bonzi only faced four break points on his own serve so will feel he has the weapons to try and contain Denis Shapovalov in this Second Round match.

You have to believe Denis Shapovalov will be able to roll through some service games of his own and I do think the limited break opportunities could see this Second Round match surpassing the total games line set.

With a very high percentage of service games being held, I do think we will see at least one tie-breaker on the day and that can set this match on the way to a number of games to surpass the line where it is at right now.


Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 22.5 games: The head to head with Emil Ruusuvuori clearly is one that Ilya Ivashka enjoys, but he has not had the same success against Stefanos Tsitsipas with two losses from their two Tour meetings. Both have been pretty one-sided losses too with the Belarusian struggling with the return of serve, but Ilya Ivashka has to feel that the grass courts could be a leveller for him.

He has long been comfortable on this surface and Ilya Ivashka may have felt he could have had a solid impact at Wimbledon if the tournament had not decided to go rogue and ban Belarusian and Russian players from competing. Some may have felt disheartened, but Ilya Ivashka has played some solid grass court tennis this month and his only losses have both come at the hands of World Number 1 Daniil Medvedev.

Both have been competitive losses and Ivashka has been holding 91% of the service games played on the surface and that is a strong number. He has won 68% of points behind serve and that is a number that will make it difficult for a returner like Stefanos Tsitsipas to break him.

While a still improving player, Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled with his return on the grass and he does not look completely comfortable with how best to approach this side of his tennis. Over the last couple of weeks, Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to have a really strong grass court tournament and he has won just 28% of points against the serve and that has produced breaks in 10% of return games played.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed facing the Ilya Ivashka serve, but one of those matches was on a clay court on which the Greek player is much more comfortable than he is on the grass.

It will mean pressure on his own serve, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 69% of points behind serve and he will believe it is a shot that can contain his opponent in the Second Round in Mallorca.

The serve has certainly been too much for Ilya Ivashka to deal with in their previous matches and this could be another match in which the players are able to roll through service games and need tie-breakers to separate them. While holding a mental edge from their previous head to head meetings, Stefanos Tsitsipas may not be as comfortable as Ilya Ivashka is on the grass courts and that could make this match the most competitive of the three between them.

Motivation could be a question for Stefanos Tsitsipas if he falls behind in the match with Wimbledon fast approaching, but I do think he wants to at least put a couple of wins on the board before heading to London. I don't expect anything less than a full effort from Ilya Ivashka with this being his last grass court tournament of the month and with two strong servers and two relatively average return players, I think this match will surpass the total set for the match.

MY PICKS: Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Giron @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sebastian Baez-Daniel Altmaier Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Greet Minnen - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dan Evans-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro-Taylor Fritz Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ryan Peniston - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-9, + 5.10 Units (42 Units Staked, + 12.14% Yield)

Tuesday, 21 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 21st)

On a day when 66% of the Picks that were completed returned winners, you should be positive.

But I can't help feel that meat was still left on the table and that can be frustrating when you believe it was a day in which more winners should have been produced.

The Sebastian Korda pick was a bad one, but he has withdrawn from Wimbledon and is clearly not feeling himself.

However, Alison Riske had so many chances to win her match in straight sets and it felt like she was at 0-30 against serve for much of the second set without getting over the line. I truly believe the breaks would have been like London buses (wait for one when two or three come at once), but it was not meant to be.

Later on Taro Daniel reminded me why he is the player I just can't get a read on for love nor money- whenever I back against him he seems to be a pressure point playing demon, which makes me wonder how he continues to flounder outside the top 100 of the World Rankings.

But back him? He will make you regret that too.

His late break after saving break points in multiple service games ensured he covered to end the day at 8-4 rather than 9-3, but I will always appreciate a plus day.

Bad Homburg saw much of their schedule rained out and that meant the Bianca Andreescu pick will be played on Tuesday.


Dan Evans - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Two competent grass court players will be looking to put a solid tournament under their belts before Wimbledon begins and I think this will be a competitive First Round match in Eastbourne.

Dan Evans has won a title on the grass courts this season, albeit at the Challenger level, but was beaten in the First Round in Queens. He looks like he will be Seeded at Wimbledon, and he has the potential to have a solid run at the third Grand Slam of the season.

Matches like this will give us a pretty good indication as to where Dan Evans feels his own game is as he goes up against the veteran Adrian Mannarino. The Frenchman reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch, but he has dropped out of the top 70 of the World Rankings and surprisingly chose to miss out on the Qualifying events at the big grass court tournaments that were played last week.

Adrian Mannarino looks to be a declining force, but had three solid wins in Hertogenbosch which have to be respected. The loss to Daniil Medvedev came in a close match, while Mannarino was perhaps more disappointed with the defeat to Ryan Peniston in Surbiton at the end of May.

Having a lefty serve makes Adrian Mannarino dangerous and he has long been a solid performer on the grass, although his numbers in recent seasons shows the overall decline he is on. Someone like Dan Evans should be a step above him now and the British player also holds a 3-1 head to head advantage, which can help in what are expected to be close matches.

They have split the two previous grass court matches played against one another, although it was Dan Evans who beat Adrian Mannarino when they met at Queens last year. The serve was dominant for Evans on that day and he has held 88% of his service games on the grass courts this season compared with Mannarino's 83% mark.

The last three matches between these opponents have all been won by Dan Evans and he has had a big edge when it comes to the serve in those too. I expect that could be the difference between Evans and Adrian Mannarino in the First Round here too and he can do just enough to edge past this handicap mark set on his way to the Second Round.


Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 games v Pedro Martinez: Two Spaniards who would much prefer to be playing clay court tennis than grass court tennis will be meeting in the First Round in Eastbourne in the final warm up event before Wimbledon.

However, to give both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pedro Martinez their credit, both have produced some big results on the grass courts and can have an impact on the surface.

Last week was a disappointment for Pedro Martinez who was beaten early at Queens, but he did reach the Third Round at Wimbledon last season and beat Gael Monfils during that run. I have to respect that, but Pedro Martinez is just 1-4 in grass court matches outside of the two wins at Wimbledon in 2021 and he was well beaten last week.

His opponent hasn't exactly got a grass court record to write home about, but Davidovich Fokina did reach the Quarter Final in London last week.

Being friends does change the dynamic of the match a little bit and I am a little wary of asking one of them to be able to cover a big spread, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina may have a bit more quality with his grass court tennis and that can be key to the outcome of the match.

I expect to see breaks of serve both ways, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina did hold 77% of his service games last week, while Pedro Martinez was put under immense pressure by Francisco Cerundolo in his defeat. I think that could be the case here and Davidovich Fokina can work his way into a position to cover this mark as he moves through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Dan Evans - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ugo Humbert-Thiago Monteiro Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6.24 Units (24 Units Staked, + 26% Yield)

Monday, 20 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 20th)

The final week before any Grand Slam can be a difficult one to negotiate as far as Tennis Picks are concerned and that is largely down to the chance of there being a lack of motivation to have a deep run with a big tournament coming up.

However, the WTA event in Eastbourne is one of the bigger events on the Tour, while the top names are largely absent in the two ATP tournaments being played. That should mean players will be looking to put solid results together to build some confidence, while others know they will not be able to compete at the third Slam of the season and so may not be worried about conserving energy.


It is a week in which I will be keeping an eye on the early results and making sure I am not in the same kind of hole as I found myself last week.

The late bounce back was not completely satisfactory, but it does mean having some momentum to take into what is a very busy week of tennis as the final approach towards Wimbledon is taken.


Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: With Wimbledon out of bounds for those representing Russia and Belarus, it might be hard to find the motivation for players from those nations to put in a big week in the final one before the third Grand Slam of the season begins. However, I do think the Ranking points that can be earned should be motivation enough and there are plenty of events to play next month and then in the lead to the US Open to make up for the disappointment of missing the event in South West London that is a week away from getting going.

Players like Ilya Ivashka may not have been a genuine title contender at Wimbledon, but he is close to surpassing his career best World Ranking and has been a pretty solid player on the grass courts.

The serve is a potent weapon for Ilya Ivashka who has held 90% of his service games played on the grass courts over the last couple of weeks. Only Daniil Medvedev has ended his runs in Hertogenbosch and Halle, but Ilya Ivashka is on the opposite side of the draw in Mallorca this week and will be hoping that serve can help him out of difficult spots.

His return numbers have not hit the kind of marks that Ivashka has reached in 2019 and 2021 on the grass courts, but he can be an effective return player.

It was that side of his game that saw Ilya Ivashka beat Emil Ruusuvuori in Hertogenbosch and I am a little surprised the latter has decided to leave England and play in this event in Mallorca rather than playing in Eastbourne. The travel back and forth shouldn't be a major issue, while Emil Ruusuvuori may feel more confident having Qualified for Queens last week and then reaching the Quarter Final.

Emil Ruusuvuori has not really had the time to adjust as he may have liked having played in London on Friday and this match scheduled for Monday, but again I am not expecting that to be a major factor. The Finn has been serving very well on the grass courts and he will be looking to be more efficient with his performance behind that shot compared with how he played against Ivashka in Holland.

However, the head to head has shown that Ilya Ivashka has been more productive on the return of serve compared with Emil Ruusuvuori and that was the bottom line in Hertogenbosch as Ivashka beat this opponent for a fourth time in a row. In those wins, Ilya Ivashka has held 89% of his service games compared with Emil Ruusvuori's 50% mark and the former did not face a break point when these players met a couple of weeks ago.

The run in Queens will give Emil Ruusuvuori more confidence, but it may not be enough to bridge the gap in this match up and I think Ilya Ivashka can win and cover.

MY PICKS: Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tallon Griekspoor-Feliciano Lopez Over 22.5 Games @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens - 0.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Harriet Dart @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brandon Nakashima - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 0.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 0.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sunday, 19 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 19th)

A wet day in Birmingham means both Semi Finals and Final at that tournament will be played on the same day, but the other events have all managed to get through their Saturday schedules.

We have all of the Finals scheduled for Sunday on the same day the last events before Wimbledon are set to begin. I won't have any Picks from the First Round matches that will get those events underway on Sunday as first I concentrate on ending this week with something of a flourish.


Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz over 23.5 games: Despite the ban that is going to prevent Daniil Medvedev from playing at Wimbledon, the current World Number 1 has continued to shine on the grass courts. He will be playing in his second Final on the surface in two weeks and will also be competing in Mallorca to make sure the Ranking points are put in the bank before the move onto the hard courts in the build towards the US Open.

I would not be surprised if Daniil Medvedev decides to play a tournament or two in July to make sure he doesn't lose any match sharpness before looking to defend the Grand Slam title he won last season. For now his main focus is making sure he continues to perform at a high level on the grass courts, although Daniil Medvedev will also be looking to be much more competitive than he was in the upset loss last week in Hertogenbosch.

This has not always been the best match up for Daniil Medvedev having split four matches with Hubert Hurtkacz over the last twelve months. The first one of those was played between these two in an epic match at Wimbledon that lasted five sets and there really has not been much between two solid servers.

It has been a strong week for Hubert Hurkacz who has upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Quarter Final and then come from behind to beat Nick Kyrgios in the Semi Final. The character and mental strength shown by Hubert Hurkacz to win the match against the Australian without breaking serve once is going to be a huge factor in how far he can go at Wimbledon again, and I do think he has the serving power to keep this one competitive even in a two set loss.

Both of these players have produced very strong serving numbers in their run to the Halle Final and that is backed up by the fact that Daniil Medvedev has held 97% of his service games and Hubert Hurkacz has held 94% of his . You can't ignore the fact that Medvedev has faced a lot more break points than Hubert Hurkacz, but he has played the big points well and has held 88% of his service games played in the four matches against this opponent.

Daniil Medvedev has a huge advantage when it comes to the returning numbers in Halle this week, but Hubert Hurkacz is confident with his serve and has held 90% of his service games against the World Number 1. I do think there will be at least one tie-breaker needed in this one and the matches have been competitive enough to see three of the four needing a deciding set to determine the winner.

That is a real possibility in this Final and I do think both can be confident in the serving they have been producing for this match to go pretty long and cover this total set.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Hubert Hurkacz Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 26-25, - 4.04 Units (106 Units Staked, - 3.81% Yield)

Saturday, 18 June 2022

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 18th)

It has been a difficult week.

And for about an hour on Friday, I felt things were just not going to get much better as two players I picked won the first set of their matches and were then beaten in three sets.

Both of those were at close to odds against plays (one was odds against) and one of the players had been up a break in the second set before falling away.

At that point I honestly thought this was going to be one of those weeks where bad fortune and bad Picks were going to combine to really batter the numbers.

But then things changed...

After a 1-2 start on Friday with those aforementioned three set defeats, the Tennis Picks surged to a 7-1 conclusion for the day and almost completely wiped out the deep hole the numbers had been in through the first four days of the week.

Even then I feel it could have been even better, but I have to be very happy with the outcome of the Quarter Final matches and now we are down to the final two days at the events being played this week.

Conditions were very difficult for the two Great Britain based tournaments on Friday, but Saturday looks to be cooler all around, especially at the WTA Birmingham event. However, rain is also expected both in Birmingham and London so both tournaments are expected to be impacted.

It will be much tougher in Germany though with the heatwave moving across Europe hitting this weekend in time for the Semi Final and Final matches in Berlin and Halle. You have to factor those into your plays, but most of the players left in the draws should be used to what they have to deal with.


Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios over 23.5 games: It has been hot in Halle all week, but the temperature rockets upwards over the weekend and I do think that is only going to favour the server even more than usual.

Both of these Semi Finalists have been dominant behind serve so far this week and I do think that both Hubert Hurkacz and Nick Kyrgios are likely going to keep that going against each other.

You have to give Nick Kyrgios the edge when it comes to the returning numbers this week in his run to the Semi Final, but he has struggled against the first serve of both Daniel Altmaier and Stefanos Tsitsipas before overwhelming Pablo Carreno Busta. While the earlier Rounds saw Hubert Hurkacz with his first serve percentage, he landed 65% of them in his Quarter Final upset of Felix Auger-Aliassime and that will be the key to any success that the Polish player is going to have in this match.

He has not been as consistent with the first serve as he would like, but found a rhythm on Friday and that will give Hubert Hurkacz every opportunity to get in front of the scoreboard and keep the pressure on Nick Kyrgios.

The Australian has played the big points well on the return of serve this week, which makes him dangerous, but he will need some help from Hubert Hurkacz to get into a position to break serve.

However, Nick Kyrgios will be very confident in his own serve and looking for that shot to put Hubert Hurkacz under pressure. The latter admitted he could not get a read of the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve in the Quarter Final and resorted to guessing, but it will be that much harder to produce effective returns against someone like Nick Kyrgios who is landing 64% of first serves an winning 83% of points behind that shot.

With a limited return, Hubert Hurkacz is going to have to serve well to make this a competitive match, but he showed he can handle the pressure of a serve-dominated match on Friday. A hot day in Halle is likely going to make the ball fly a little faster all around and I would expect to see at least one tie-breaker between these two very strong servers, especially as both Nick Kyrgios and Hubert Hurkacz can be a little bit hit and miss with their return.

Both have been winning over 71% of their service points played and I would not be surprised if this is a match that comes down to one or two points in tie-breakers to determine the outcome. A place in the Final is going to mean plenty of motivation to take to the court, and it should mean even dropping the first set is not going to see heads drop and we may even need a decider to see who can earn their spot as a Finalist in Halle.

MY PICKS: Hubert Hurkacz-Nick Kyrgios Over 23.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev-Oscar Otte Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cori Gauff @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 24-22, - 1.44 Units (92 Units Staked, - 1.57% Yield)

Friday, 17 June 2022

Boxing Picks 2022- Artur Beterbiev vs Joe Smith Jr (June 18th)

We should have had the return of Jermall Charlo this weekend, but the Middleweight bout against Maciej Sulecki has been postponed.

It will mean that we have not seen Jermall Charlo in the ring for over twelve months as he waited out an opportunity to face Canelo Alvarez, but that doesn't look like coming to fruition any time soon and the American needs to be more active.

His absence has come at a time when twin brother Jermell has become an Undisputed Champion in the Light Middleweight Division and arguably become the more sellable of the two. Considering where the two would have been placed a year ago, you can see how inactivity has hurt Jermall and we will have to wait a little while longer before he is involved in a big fight.


While this is feeling like a quieter weekend of Boxing after some of the solid shows we have had over the last couple of months, there is still a massive Undisputed fight taking place in the Light Heavyweight Division.

Dmitry Bivol has already shown the world the kind of calibre of Champions in this Division when he comfortably beat Canelo Alvarez, but Artur Beterbiev has long been considered the King of the 175ers.

Joe Smith Jr is another popular name and their Unification is going to move the Light Heavyweights that much closer to a Super Fight with all of the belts on the line either later this year or early in 2023.



Artur Beterbiev vs Joe Smith Jr

Right now you would say there are three Light Heavyweights that will have to duke it out to see who is the best of the best in the 175 pound Division.

More critical people may even suggest it comes down to a straight shoot out between Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev to decide the King of the Light Heavyweights and that argument could be made when you think Bivol holds a win over Joe Smith Jr, the opponent facing Beterbiev this weekend who also holds one of the World Title Belts.

Gilberto Ramirez and Callum Smith may have something to say about who should be the headliner in the Division, but the reality is that we are likely one fight away from determining the best fighter in this weight class. And that will be the winner of this one on Saturday facing off against Dmitry Bivol with all four World Titles on the line.

I am hopeful we will get there and this Unification on Saturday has all of the makings of a brutal slugfest.

Not many would choose to stand trade with Artur Beterbiev who has yet to hear the final bell in his pro career and who has fought and stopped some solid names. However, one person who shouldn't be too hard to find is Joe Smith Jr, who buzzed Dmitry Bivol late on in what was otherwise a one-sided win for the WBA World Champion.

That power cannot be underestimated and we did see Beterbiev put down by Callum Johnson and look pretty hurt, although that is the only time we have really seen that happen.

There is no doubting the heart that Joe Smith Jr will likely show too, but I cannot help think that he is not going to have faced someone who hits as hard as Artur Beterbiev. Standing in front of the Russian fighter just seems a bad move all around, but Smith Jr only fights one way and I think that is going to lead to a dismantling and an eventual stoppage in favour of Artur Beterbiev.

Joe Smith Jr has to be respected and has some decent wins behind him, but I think a crude, pretty basic style is going to be tailor-made for Artur Beterbiev who hits plenty hard.

Artur Beterbiev is 37 years old now though and you always have to wonder if Father Time will catch up with on any given night. He hasn't had a lot of wear and tear on his body though, but I do think the age has meant he has taken a little longer to perhaps get into his groove and really start digging home with the big shots.

Only two of his first fourteen opponents were able to make it out of the Fifth Round, but each of his last three have lasted at least Nine Rounds. Some of that is down to the increased level of competition, but Adam Deines and Marcus Browne are perhaps a tier or two below Joe Smith Jr in terms of their ability to stick in a fight and I do think the American will not go down easily.

Ultimately everyone has eventually gone down.

Only one fighter has even made it to the last Round against Artur Beterbiev, but I would be surprised if he is able to get Joe Smith Jr out of there much earlier than his last three opponents. Joe Smith Jr was stopped in the Fourth Round early in his career, and there was a feeling that Dmitry Bivol could have forced a stoppage in the second half of their fight before being buzzed late on.

I just don't think Artur Beterbiev is nearly as likely to 'coast' in this one as it felt Dmitry Bivol was doing late on and I think he will get this fight won in the second half of the scheduled Twelve Rounds.


The main undercard bout features stand out amateur Robeisy Ramirez continue his pro career.

He has bounced back from a debut defeat and Ramirez is clearly on a fast track to the top of the Featherweight Division, but this is not going to be an easy test against the undefeated American Abraham Nova.

Both will feel this is a step up in their level of competition, but the feeling is that Ramirez has the skills to edge past Nova in what should be a very good undercard bout. He has made up for that sole loss on the record by beating Adan Gonzalez over Six Rounds, and I just think he will flash at times to impress the judges, although the Boxing Pick will solely come from the main event.


On Friday evening, we have the latest of a series of boxing events that are going to be shown on UK terrestrial television that are being promoted by Wasserman Boxing.

It is the chance to try and build some big local names and two fighters are on the same card in Liverpool looking to put a spark back in their careers.

Both Josh Kelly and Nathan Gorman were earning some big headlines before devastating Knock Out losses on their resumes.

Josh Kelly certainly had a big reputation and looked to be fast tracked into the World Title scene, but after a fifteen month lay off during the Covid pandemic, he was obliterated by David Avanesyan in Six Rounds. The feeling was that the fight was coming too soon, but the manner of the loss would have really hurt and he has not been out since that defeat in February 2021.

He returns having had an opponent pull out of a bout at the last minute last month, but Josh Kelly is now operating at the Light Middleweight limit. You have to expect he is going to be given an opponent that can help shake off some of the ring rust, although they have picked Peter Kramer who has been pulled down from the Middleweight Division.

Peter Kramer has fought a couple of times in the UK over the last ten months and took opponents to the cards on both occasions, although those were over Six Rounds and this has been scheduled for Ten. His two previous stoppages have come pretty early, but one of those was in the Fourth Round against Sam Eggington and it may take Josh Kelly a little bit longer to really get his timing and feeling back in the ring.

The layers expect an early night, but Josh Kelly may need a little longer than that and I think it is worth a small interest in this one getting a few Rounds under his belt before finding a Stoppage somewhere in the middle of the contest.


Nathan Gorman's career has really stalled since his early defeat to Daniel Dubois and this is only his third fight since that defeat all the way back in July 2019.

It has been fifteen months since we last saw Gorman in the ring when he was beating Pavel Sour in the Second Round and he is fighting another Czech on his return.

Tomas Salek has won the Czech Heavyweight Title and defended that in a Ten Rounder on the cards against the aforementioned Sour last time out.

However, Salek should not pose too many problems for Nathan Gorman having been stopped in the Third Round by Kash Ali and I expect the fast hands of the British fighter to get this one done pretty quickly. If his promoters have any sense, Nathan Gorman will be fighting at least two more times in 2022, and perhaps even throwing a third fight, and the boxer himself has talked about getting into the mix in a deepish Heavyweight Division so will know he needs to be as active as possible.

I am not expecting too many problems for Gorman and I will look for this contest to end before the Fourth Round begins.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Josh Kelly to Win Between 5-6 @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Nathan Gorman-Tomas Salek Under Four Rounds @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2022: 24-36, + 20.86 Units (109 Units Staked, + 19.14% Yield)