College Football Week 9 Picks 2021 (October 30th)

I will be updating the season totals in the Week 10 College Football post, but you can read the selections from Week 9 below.

UCF Knights @ Temple Owls Pick: It has been three seasons since the UCF Knights (4-3) won the American Athletic Conference and it was during a period when they felt really hard done by that they were ignored for the College Football PlayOff. Injury has not really helped their cause in 2021 and there may be one or two envious glances from the fanbase at Conference rivals the Cincinnati Bearcats who could be invited into the PlayOff if they can complete an unbeaten season.

There is nothing the Knights can do about that now, but they are looking to produce a fifth winning season in succession and the remaining schedule certainly gives them an opportunity to do that. You would expect the Knights to be favoured in four of their remaining five games, which should mean another Bowl appearance as well as securing that winning record before playing the final game of the season.

The Knights are big favourites when they head to Philadelphia to take on the Temple Owls (3-4) who have lost two games in a row, but who have bounced back from a tough 2020 season when they finished 1-6. It will be a challenge for the Owls to earn the three wins they will need to become Bowl eligible, but the improvement from 2020 will impress Head Coach Rod Carey.

Losing the starting Quarter Back made things very difficult for the UCF Knights and it is entirely possible that Dillon Gabriel will not return this season, but the Knights match up pretty well Offensively with the Temple Defensive unit even without Gabriel behind Center. Last week the Owls were crushed on the ground and this UCF Offensive Line has shown they can open up some big holes up front, while the Owls have allowed an average of over 285 yards per game on the ground over their last three games.

Unsurprisingly, as Temple have looked to find a way to clamp down on the run, there have been issues stopping the pass in the Secondary when teams to decide to throw against them. This should mean the UCF Knights are able to move the ball with plenty of consistency in this game and I am not that surprised they are such big favourites, even on the road against a team with a decent enough record.

In Week 8, Temple could not stop the South Florida Bulls piling up huge numbers on the ground and it ultimately meant the Owls were also dominated in the time of possession. That put pressure on the Offensive unit to try and make full use of the limited time they had with the ball, but they are facing a UCF Defense which is coming off a hugely impressive performance.

An extra day of preparation as well as rest and recovery should boost the Knights Defensively and they match up well with this Temple Offensive unit. There have been one or two holes up front which has seen teams being able to establish the run against UCF, but Temple have not shown a consistency behind their Offensive Line and the pressure then shifts onto D'Wan Mathis at Quarter Back.

Time is something that Mathis cannot rely upon with the pressure the Knights continue to generate from the strong pass rush and it may be enough for UCF to pull clear of a wide mark.

The Knights are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in this Conference series and the road team has improved to 5-1 against the spread in the last six.

UCF are not a great favourite to back over the last couple of years, but Temple have a rough record as a home underdog and I do think the Knights can get behind the run and pull clear.

Washington State Cougars @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Earlier this season it felt like the Pac-12 would have an opportunity to earn one of the spots in the College Football PlayOffs in December. The Oregon Ducks won at the Ohio State Buckeyes to be considered the favourite, but they have not really been able to back that up and teams have lined up behind them to potentially win the Pac-12 Championship.

The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) and the Washington State Cougars (4-4) are in different Divisions, but they have done enough to this point to believe they earn a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The home team are 3-1 in the Pac-12 South, but they were beaten by the Utah Utes a couple of weeks ago and that means Arizona State are going to need some help if they are going to finish above the Utes over the coming weeks.

All Herm Edwards can do is guide his team week to week and they are going to come out of the Bye as big favourites. The pandemic meant Arizona State finished 2-2 in 2020, but they have a winning record in the first two seasons under Edwards and the Sun Devils look like they are capable of finishing up with their best record under this Head Coach.

The USC Trojans are next on deck for the Sun Devils, a huge game within the Division, but they can't afford to overlook the Washington State Cougars who have a 3-2 record in the Pac-12 and who are just a game behind in the Pac-12 North. This was supposed to be a season when Head Coach Nick Rolovich would take the team forward after a 1-3 record, but off field issues, namely refusing to be vaccinated, has meant Rolovich and a number of his staff have been fired.

There had been rumours that Nick Rolovich was going to refuse to take the vaccine and the decision by the State to mandate compulsory vaccination was always going to end one way. The team were right behind the Head Coach until the end and had won three Pac-12 games in a row, but the players showed they refuse to allow off field distractions to dictate how the remainder of the season goes.

Washington State battled hard in their narrow loss to the BYU Cougars in Week 8 and they will be heading into a Bye before the big game with Oregon in a couple of weeks time. That may be the best time for the team to reset after the drama off the field, but Washington State will feel they have control of their own destiny in the Pac-12 and that means trying to keep up with the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers in the Division.

There is a touch more balance in the Washington State Offensive game-plan than we were used to seeing in Mike Leach's Air Raid time here, but the pass is likely going to be a big part of their plan this week. The Cougars have been a little inconsistent running the ball behind the Offensive Line and the Arizona State Sun Devils have been pretty strong up front, but over the last three games the Secondary have given up some big plays.

Some key players could be returning for the Sun Devils in Defensive Back positions, but Jayden de Laura has shown enough at Quarter Back to believe he can find some holes to exploit. The Cougars are averaging over 300 passing yards over their last three games and the Washington State Offensive Line have been strong in pass protection to believe they can give their young Quarter Back some time.

Balance is something that Herm Edwards can rely upon when the Arizona State Sun Devils have the ball and I do think they are going to have some joy establishing the run, which will set up the entire Offense. The Sun Devils have twenty-two rushing Touchdowns this season and they have a number of players who can come in and make some big plays on the ground, while the Sun Devils should be able to get going against the Cougars Defensive Line which has allowed 4.9 yards per carry in recent games.

Running the ball will just ease any pressure on Jayden Daniels who has faced some pass rush pressure with the Sun Devils looking more effective in run blocking than pass protection. The Cougars have actually played the pass pretty well, but being unable to clamp down on the run should mean Jayden Daniels makes some big throws and it should give the home team a real opportunity to win the game.

Even then, I do think this is a very big spread with the Arizona State players having a hugely important Divisional game coming up next. When these teams last met here two years ago, the Sun Devils earned a narrow win and I do think the Washington State Cougars have been given a lot of points this time around.

The Cougars have covered in their last four as the road underdog, while Arizona State are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the home favourite. The Bye will have given the Sun Devils a chance to get healthier, but the spot is not an ideal one and this is a lot of points for a potentially distracted team to cover.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: The Big 12 is going to have a different feel when the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners move to the SEC, but even without those two powerhouse schools, these two teams would be way off the Big 12 Championship Game race.

Only the Kansas Jayhawks are below the Kansas State Wildcats (4-3) and TCU Horned Frogs (3-4) in the Conference and both of these teams have dropped three of four Conference games played. The Horned Frogs are feeling the pressure as they look to avoid a losing season for the third time in six seasons and they are clearly underachieving compared with pre-season expectations, while the Kansas State Wildcats have perhaps surprised as they look to bounce back from the 4-6 record produced in the 2020 season.

Pre-season expectations don't mean much once you get into Week 9 of the regular season and the feeling is that Kansas State are in a much stronger position if they are going to become Bowl eligible. They are likely to be favoured in each of their next three games and need two more wins to reach the six win mark, while the TCU Horned Frogs will likely need to find at least one upset to have an opportunity to play after the regular season is concluded at the end of November.

Injuries have been a factor working against both of these teams, but neither Head Coach is looking for excuses and the players still have some motivation behind them to produce a strong end to the season. That will be encouraging and I do think the Horned Frogs could make this a competitive game as a small road underdog.

Running the ball is always important to teams in College and the in the NFL and this is an area where TCU have continued to have success. Earlier in the season you may have wondered if they could really establish the run in the manner they have become accustomed to against this Kansas State Defensive Line, but the Wildcats have begun to wear down through a heavy part of their schedule and that should aid their visitors.

The Bye Week will have helped in Week 6, but the Wildcats have still been allowing their last three opponents to average 170 yards per game on the ground and those have been given up at 4.9 yards per clip. Those are numbers that will be something that TCU will be looking to exploit having been able to move the chains on the ground all season and I think it is important for Max Duggan at Quarter Back, who made two costly mistakes in the defeat to West Virginia.

Max Duggan should have time in the pocket with the team likely to be in third and manageable spots, but he has not really developed in the manner the Horned Frogs would have hoped. The Wildcats Secondary is one that can step up and make some big plays, but Duggan should be a little stronger than he was in Week 8 and that can put TCU in a position to move the ball and punch in some Touchdowns.

A healthier Kansas State team will be looking for a much stronger start than they made against the Texas Tech Red Raiders last time out and the momentum is with them after the second half rally produced the narrowest of wins. Skylar Thompson will be looking for a strong end to the season as he rebuilds his full health and he should be well backed by the Kansas State rushing Offense against a Horned Frogs team that have underperformed significantly up front.

Under Gary Patterson, the Horned Frogs Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run, but they are giving up 212 yards per game at 5.5 yards per carry this season which are going to be their worst numbers by a huge margin since 2016. Even in recent games, there has been little sign of improvement and the real question has to be whether the Wildcats can exploit those issues having struggled to run the ball as the level of opponent has improved.

Head Coach Chris Klieman has made it clear his team need to be able to run the ball if they are going to find the balance they need and in this game it might be most important of all. Skylar Thompson should be able to have success against the Horned Frogs Secondary, which hasn't been any better than the Defensive Line in stopping the pass as the latter are the run, but becoming one-dimensional is never a good option for any Offensive unit.

I do think the Wildcats will be able to move the ball with considerable success, but TCU have the Offense that matches up well with them and that could lead to a game where there is very little between them. The last three games have been decided by a combined 15 points between these teams, but TCU have won the yardage battle in the last two despite being upset both times by the Wildcats.

This time it is the Horned Frogs who are the underdog and I think that may give them some fire in the belly to try and bounce back from the loss to West Virginia in Week 8. TCU might not be the best road underdog to back, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a straight up loss and they should be able to keep this game very competitive.

Kansas State are 3-4 against the spread as the home favourite under their current Head Coach and they have simply not used to being considered a favourite in Big 12 play. That can add to the pressure of expectation and I think the Horned Frogs can be backed with the points here.

The Wildcats are 2-11-1 against the spread in their last fourteen games set as the favourite of fewer than 20 points and I do think having a little more than a Field Goal worth of points makes the road team appealing in this game.

MY PICKS: UCF Knights - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Washington State Cougars + 16 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

TCU Horned Frogs + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Vanderbilt Commodores + 17 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NC State Wolfpack - 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boston College Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 3 Points @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Virginia Cavaliers + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 10 Picks 2021 (October 30-November 1)

I'll be honest, I have not watched one minute of football since around 625pm last Sunday when concluding watching my team leave the pitch at Old Trafford.

There really is nothing more to say as we get ready to begin the week which will conclude with the November international break.

Leicester City v Arsenal Pick: The first game of the Premier League weekend sees Arsenal once again in front of the television cameras as both them and their hosts, Leicester City, look to continue what has been a positive run of form.

Both of these teams progressed to the League Cup Quarter Final during the week and both Leicester City and Arsenal have been moving up the Premier League standings after disappointing starts to the season. That will have given the players plenty of belief as they look to produce another big week before the latest international break sees the players jet off to represent their countries.

There is much to like about the performances of both Leicester City and Arsenal over the last month, but I think the home advantage for The Foxes can be important.

They were beaten twice by Arsenal at the King Power Stadium last season, but those were fixtures behind closed doors and it is different with crowds. Leicester City have won their last 3 at home against Arsenal with the supporters inside the King Power Stadium and the recent Arsenal unbeaten run has been built on home form.

Arsenal were fortunate to win at Burnley and to avoid defeat at Brighton, but Leicester City are scoring plenty of goals. Defensively there are questions for Leicester City to answer, but Arsenal have not offered the same attacking threat away from the Emirates Stadium as they have at home.

There is quality and pace in the counter attack which could make Arsenal dangerous, but Leicester City look to have turned a corner. This should be a competitive fixture, but Leicester City's attacking consistency could prove to be the difference on the day and I think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap to earn a vital three points.

Burnley v Brentford Pick: Over the years, this has been the kind of match that Burnley have found a way to win and it is those results which have ensured they have spent a number of seasons in the Premier League.

They have yet to win in the 2021/22 Premier League season, but Burnley have picked up a few points over the last month which has kept them just about in touch with those above them. The fixture list looks to be getting much kinder for Burnley in the weeks ahead, but they did fail to beat Norwich City here and that means they have not won any of their last 14 Premier League games at Turf Moor.

The team are not creating as many chances as they would like and Burnley have not been as intense defensively either. Put that together and it is very difficult to find wins, while it also leaves them potentially vulnerable to a defeat this weekend.

Brentford arrive having won their last 3 away games in all competitions and even the two Premier League losses in recent weeks is not expected to dent the belief of this squad. They deserved a lot more than they got against Chelsea and Leicester City and being able to compete with those clubs means Brentford will feel very confident going into a set of fixtures which look much more winnable on paper.

They have played really well at Wolves and West Ham United in winning efforts there and Brentford look like they are capable of making it three Premier League away wins in a row. David Raya will be a big absentee for Brentford, but the win at Stoke City in the League Cup during the week shows this is a team that will take things a game at a time and will not allow defeats to affect them too much.

Winning at Burnley is never easy, but Sean Dyche's men have lost 6 of their last 8 Premier League games at Turf Moor. The chances that Brentford are likely to create coupled with the pretty decent defensive shape they can produce means the away team look a good team to back on the Asian Handicap to secure a vital three points.

Liverpool v Brighton Pick: Counter attacking at its finest helped Manchester City beat Brighton comfortably at the Amex Stadium last weekend and that has to be a worry for Graham Potter after seeing how efficient Liverpool had been going forward in their big win at Old Trafford.

Unsurprisingly the layers all feel that Liverpool should be big favourites to win this game, but Jurgen Klopp will be reminding his players that it was Brighton who took 4 points out of their two League meetings last season.

Brighton were one of a number of teams who won games at Anfield in the Premier League, but this Liverpool team is flying and it is going to be a challenge to contain them. However, even at their best, Liverpool have not really blown Brighton away at Anfield and this could be a tough fixture if the home team are expecting to just need to turn up and roll over The Seagulls.

I do think recent games involving Brighton have seen the team just struggle when it comes to their defensive assignments and that is something that Liverpool can exploit. They have conceded six goals over the last seven days and I think Liverpool are well rested and they should be able to pick up from where they left off last Sunday.

Liverpool have been creating chances, but they are not nearly as defensively secure as some believe after one victory. Graham Potter may feel the best defence for his team is getting forward and challenging Liverpool, but that could leave them vulnerable here and the feeling is that the home team will win by a couple of goals on the day.

It won't be a straight-forward win, but Liverpool's attacking threat can see them create enough to put Brighton away and earn revenge for the defeat here in February.

Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: There are as many points between 4th place and 10th place in the Premier League as there are between 4th place and 3rd placed Manchester City and the feeling is that the top three Premier League clubs are significantly stronger than the rest of the Division.

That doesn't mean they are going to win every game against those further down the standings, as Southampton proved by drawing here in the Premier League, but it does mean that Crystal Palace are going to have to handle the pressure that Manchester City will exert on them.

Patrick Vieira's style has been pleasing to watch and Crystal Palace have caused problems for West Ham United and Arsenal away from home. Better finishing and better concentration would have seen Crystal Palace operating much further up the Premier League table, but that should not be something that stops Manchester City from showing their class.

Crystal Palace have also been beaten at Chelsea and Liverpool this season and both of those fixtures ended 3-0 in favour of the home team. The new style does leave Crystal Palace a bit more open defensively than they would have been under Roy Hodgson and Manchester City have shown they can create chances and score plenty of goals even without a recognised number nine for many fixtures.

The 1-4 win at Brighton underlined the point and Manchester City should have too much for Crystal Palace here. The key for the visitors has to be trying to stay in the game for as long as possible, but Crystal Palace could not quite get to half time in either of the defeats at Stamford Bridge or Anfield and I think Manchester City are more likely to match those margins of victory than have to settle for a draw like they did when hosting Southampton.

This is a very big margin on the handicap, but Manchester City would have covered it twice in their 4 home League games and also managed to do that in the Champions League win over Leipzig and the League Cup win over Wycombe Wanders. Even in the victory over Burnley it would have been a push and I think the chances being created should see Manchester City produce a strong win on Saturday.

Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: In the next few seasons, Newcastle United versus Chelsea could be a fixture that has a major impact on the destination of some of the biggest trophies in England and European Football.

However, those days are in the future and right now there is a significant gap between these squads. Newcastle United are in the bottom three and looking to avoid relegation, while Chelsea are top of the Premier League table and amongst the favourites both domestically and in the Champions League and I expect that to show up here.

Graeme Jones did help Newcastle United avoid a defeat last weekend, but they were outplayed by Crystal Palace and this is another leap in terms of quality of opponent. The club may be under new ownership, but that doesn't mean the players are much better and Newcastle United are struggling at both ends of the field.

Better finishing from Crystal Palace would have secured three points last weekend and Newcastle United cannot expect Chelsea to be as wasteful. The absence of both Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner hurts Chelsea, but they did score seven goals against Norwich City without them and they will be encouraged by seeing how easily Tottenham Hotspur scored goals here a couple of weeks ago.

Chelsea have won 2 of their last 3 fixtures at St James' Park and they have already passed tests at tougher teams than the one they will see on Saturday. Defensively they don't give a lot away and I think Chelsea will have enough quality in the final third to be able to secure a comfortable looking victory to maintain their lead at the top of the Premier League table.

Watford v Southampton Pick: One of the main areas in which Claudio Ranieri will be expected to improve this Watford team is the defensive performances, but they have conceded seven goals in the two games under the veteran Italian manager. However, Watford will be heading into this weekend with a spring in the step after scoring four goals inside the final 15 minutes at Goodison Park to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 2-5 win.

It is an important three points for Watford, but Ranieri will be working his squad very hard in training this week to make sure they are harder to play against. The goals being conceded in recent home games is a worry and makes it hard for Watford to pick up the results they are going to need, but they may be playing the right opponent to try and turn that around.

Southampton have been playing some very good football under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they have not had the consistent finishing touch to that football. Danny Ings has moved on, but Adam Armstrong has yet to really convince at this level and it has arguably been the main reason Southampton do not have more points on the board.

In saying that, Southampton might have found someone in Armando Broja who can give them a cutting edge and they did score twice in the home draw with Burnley last week. The manager will know his team deserved more than they earned that day, but he has to be encouraged by the attacking performance and Hasenhuttl will believe it can see the squad turn in a few more positive results.

The two wins over Watford a couple of seasons ago will give Southampton further belief, but I expect the home team to cause problems too and this feels like a game that should feature at least three goals. In the 2019/20 season, both League fixtures between the clubs ended with three or more goals shared out, while 3 of the last 4 at Vicarage Road between Watford and Southampton have ended the same way.

The attacking chances being created has to encourage by teams, but neither has looked that secure at the back either. Southampton may feel more hard done by when looking at recent results, but I think they are playing with confidence and both of these teams may be more effective getting forward than at the back.

It may not be the most appealing game for the neutrals, especially not on paper, but I think Watford and Southampton will produce a fixture with goals here.

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: A few weeks ago, fans of both of these clubs may have been expecting to be watching a game between two high-flying teams, but both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United have been involved in miserable runs.

It means both Nuno Espirito Santo and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer are under immense pressure going into the weekend and it really would not be a major surprise if the losing team is searching for a new manager in the near future.

Limp losses to rivals last Sunday links Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United and there is going to be some real confidence issues going into the game on Saturday. Tottenham Hotspur at least won at Burnley in the League Cup Fourth Round during the week to erase memories of the 1-0 defeat at West Ham United a few days earlier, but confidence is not going to be in the best place.

They are at least facing an opponent who might not be able to drop much lower than being humiliated at home by Liverpool and I do think the first goal is going to be massive.

Spurs have won 8 of their last 10 at home, which should be inspire them, but the first goal is going to be massive in this fixture. That goes for both teams as there are questions whether the squads are still behind the manager at the helm and I think we are going to have some big answers in front of the television cameras.

It is certainly the case for the Manchester United squad who spent much of Monday leaking stories about their dissatisfaction with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. The Norwegian manager likely will never be closer to the Sack without being Sacked as he was on Monday after thousands had streamed out of Old Trafford at half time in the defeat to Liverpool, but now we will get to see how the squad will react and whether they have downed tools to remove Solskjaer.

Picking a winner has so much uncertainty about it- I did think Manchester United could bounce back, but Tottenham Hotspur have been a little more organised at home and this may not be the free-scoring game some think.

Manchester United have been messy defensively in their last three games, but Tottenham Hotspur have not found the balance between attack and defence. They have not been creating a lot of chances and I do think this is a fixture which could see one of the teams fail to find the net.

Both teams have scored in 3 of the 4 away Manchester United games in the Premier League, but if the squad is no longer interested, this could be a tough fixture. Tottenham Hotspur have seen 3 of 4 home League games end with one of the teams failing to find the back of the net and I do think both managers may be looking to make sure their team is able to be much more secure defensively than they have shown over the last few games.

One of the teams failing to score is a big price and I do think that is going to be the outcome of this one with neither team looking to give to much away. Neither is good enough defensively to believe in, but there is uncertainty about the motivations of the squads and that could contribute to a tight, low-scoring fixture.

Norwich City v Leeds United Pick: Games against the top clubs are not going to determine Norwich City's future in the Premier League this season, but that should not see anyone ignore the capitulation they had at Stamford Bridge last Saturday. Losing at Chelsea is going to be an experience for many clubs this season, but losing 7-0 just puts Norwich City under the spotlight a little more as they continue to be questioned about their suitability to play at this level.

The club is pretty well run which means they have proven to be too good for the Championship, but Norwich City have not really been competitive in their last couple of seasons in the Premier League. This looks like another season in which they will be relegation without much of a fight and it is up to Daniel Farke and his players to disprove that feeling.

Norwich City have not been that good defensively and that only highlights their struggles at the other end of the field. You are not going to win matches without scoring goals and Norwich City have managed a single strike in 7 games in all competitions.

However, they will be encouraged by back to back clean sheets before the hammering at Chelsea and it is something Norwich City can build on. They did create some decent chances against Brighton, but there is a pressure on the forward players to produce the goods knowing how hard it is for Norwich City to score goals.

They could be playing Leeds United at a good time though and that is because Marcelo Bielsa's team have been struggling for goals too. Leeds United were known for their attacking intent in the Premier League last season, but they have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 9 in all competitions, while Leeds United have not scored a single goal in 3 away games.

Patrick Bamford's absence has been a blow, but Raphinha has been struggling for fitness too and the Brazilian will be a big miss if he cannot take part this weekend. It will certainly offer Norwich City a chance to earn their first win of the season considering Leeds United have not had an away clean sheet in the Premier League in the 2021/22 campaign, and I do think the visitors are plenty short to win here.

I won't deny that I feel Norwich City are the worst team in the Premier League this season, but they have created chances in home games and a single strike may be enough to secure a point. The clean sheets against Burnley and Brighton before the thumping at Chelsea are encouraging and Leeds United may be vulnerable if their key attacking players are absent in the first of two live Sunday games.

Leeds United are a shorter price than Brighton were to win here earlier this month and there is nothing in the performances of the former to suggest that should be the case. The lack of goals gives Norwich City every chance to earn a positive result and I think they can be backed on the handicap to do that.

Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: These two teams both play in claret and blue at home and both Aston Villa and West Ham United would have gone into the season with some big expectations from the fans.

Pundits may have been a little more uncertain, but West Ham United are proving that last season was anything but a fluke and they are looking strong. The 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday has moved West Ham United into the top four and they have been playing really well out of the October international break.

The squad looks deeper than many thought and David Moyes has the players all on the same page, which has led to some very strong performances. West Ham United have been particularly impressive away from the London Stadium and I do think they are capable of backing up their League win here in February.

Selling Jack Grealish did mean there was some uncertainty about how Aston Villa would react, but Dean Smith had reinvested significant sums. The hope was that those players could make up for the sale of their top player, but Aston Villa have struggled for consistency and that is largely down to the porous defensive performances that had not been evident last season.

It has nothing to do with the sale of Jack Grealish, but instead it feels like Aston Villa have been punished for the chances they have been giving up much more than they had been in the 2020/21 season. That has led to setbacks and a number of losses already and I do think West Ham United are the superior team.

You can't really underestimate some of the quality that Aston Villa have, but they have been conceding a lot more chances than West Ham United. If that plays out the same way on Sunday, I think West Ham United have shown they can play away from the London Stadium and produce big results where needed and backing the away team to come through with a win on the handicap looks the play.

Wolves v Everton Pick: Monday Night Football will come from Molineux this weekend and both Wolves and Everton are going to be expecting to challenge for European berths at the end of this season. Neither side really reached the level of expectation last season, but new managers have come in and there have been some positives to hold onto.

Momentum has moved in different directions though.

Wolves started out with some very poor results under Bruno Lage, but the performances had been better than those results indicated. In recent weeks the results have improved markedly and they are unbeaten in 4 Premier League games during which time Wolves have picked up 10 points from a possible 12.

Finding the balance between attack and defence at home is still a work in progress for Bruno Lage, but Wolves did beat Newcastle United here last time out. They have played better in other games, but a win will have just got the team feeling positive about playing here and I think that gives Wolves an edge.

Everton did beat Wolves both at home and away in the Premier League last season, but a positive start to this season has been replaced with much tougher performances. The back to back home losses to West Ham United and Watford would have stung the fans, especially as Everton have looked really messy at the back in those two losses.

It is not what you would expect from a Rafael Benitez team, but injuries are really hurting this team. Richarlison has returned and may have more minutes in the legs this week, but being without both Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a big blow for a team looking to bounce back from two very poor outings.

They have not won any of their last 3 away games in all competitions and Everton may just be vulnerable to the pace and quality that Wolves can produce in the final third. Raul Jimenez looks to be reaching his best levels again and I think he can make the difference between the two teams.

Wolves will not have things easy, but they should be the more confident of the two teams. I expect Rafael Benitez to be working his players very hard after conceding five at home against Watford, and they should have a better defensive shape, but Wolves have put the positive results together and I think they can be backed for the three points.

MY PICKS: Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap

Brentford 0 Asian Handicap

Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Watford-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Both Teams to Score- NO

Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap

Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 10

That will teach me for going heart over head.

Mohamed Salah was clearly the right play as the Captain last week, but I could not go against United.

That will be the last time I allow my heart to dictate how I will feel about any GW, at least until Manchester United start to act like a big club. The fact that there were no changes made following the embarrassment of last week just underlines how little the club care, and that means I will have to make sure the head rules the heart going forward.

The Egyptian will be given my Captain armband this week, but I was just as irritated with Kai Havertz who has gone into full troll mode this week.

Not only was he the only Chelsea starter that didn't earn any attacking returns from a 7-0 win over Norwich City, but he scored in the League Cup during the week to put a spotlight on his shithousery. There is almost no doubt that Salah will blank this week and Havertz will score twice at St James' Park, but that is only going to happen if I Captain the former and that has to be the right play.

Last month I did mention that I would like to roll a Free Transfer through the international break, but injuries meant that was not possible. However, I think that is likely to be the case this week with the bench capable of making up for some of the injuries my squad is currently dealing with.

I will post my full team on Twitter on Saturday before the 12:30pm kick off, but I won't be making any transfers and the starting eleven looks like it picks itself.

NFL Week 8 Picks 2021 (October 28-November 1)

It was a bounce back week for the NFL Picks and I am looking to put some momentum behind the selections in what has been a very good start to the 2021 season after overcoming the Week 1 nightmare.

There is plenty of the regular season to go to change the view of the season all around, so it is important to not get too far ahead of ourselves, but there are positives.

I will be adding to this post before the Sunday games, but I do have a Thursday Night Football selection this week when two of the top NFC teams meet out West.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Thursday Night Football has been a little disappointing over the first seven weeks of the NFL season, but this is a genuinely important game between two of the top teams in the NFC. Make no mistake, the game between the Arizona Cardinals (7-0), the last unbeaten team in the NFL in 2021, and the Green Bay Packers (6-1) could have massive PlayOff Seeding implications down the line.

You won't normally talk too much about Seeding in Week 8 of the NFL season, and especially not with the additional seventeenth game on the regular season schedule in 2021, but the NFC does have a feeling of being a Conference involving the 'haves and the have nots'.

The Cardinals and the Packers will feel they have the quality to win their Divisions, although there is perhaps a tougher path for the Arizona Cardinals to tread in the NFC West. They have beaten the Los Angeles Rams, but this is a team that will push the Cardinals, while the Green Bay Packers do not have to deal with another team with a winning record in the NFC North.

A few days ago this certainly did week like a really big game, but the Packers have been hit hard by Covid-19 issues and they are likely going to be without Allan Lazard and Davante Adams. The short week doesn't help and those Offensive absences are a blow to the team, while Green Bay have injuries in the Secondary and will also be without their Defensive Co-Ordinator.

It certainly means planning for this game has become all the more difficult, but the Packers will roll into the desert knowing they still have Aaron Rodgers and have won six in a row. Aaron Rodgers may be one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL, but he could be forced to lean on the Running Back corps in this one without his top Wide Receiver.

That would normally be a blow for the Packers, but I think the Offensive Line will be able to give Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon some room on the ground which can be exploited. In recent games there has been an improvement with the way the Cardinals have been able to clamp down on the run and that despite facing teams like San Francisco and Cleveland. This will be encouraging for them and the Defensive Line will be bolstered by the return of Chandler Jones this week too, meaning Arizona should be able to put Aaron Rodgers under pressure if they are able to force Green Bay into obvious passing Downs.

Aaron Rodgers would normally be someone I would be happy to rely on to make his plays even under duress, but without Adams at Wide Receiver it may be more difficult for the Quarter Back. Even the 6-0 record Green Bay have without Davante Adams is not one that Rodgers is pushing too hard and I do think the pass rush will get to the Quarter Back if the Cardinals continue to play the run as hard as they have over the last few games.

The Cardinals do look healthier and they had a comfortable win in Week 7 which should mean they are ready to 'prove themselves' again on Thursday with the nation focused on this one game. Kyler Murray continues to play at a really high level, but he will be hoping his own Number 1 Receiver, DeAndre Hopkins is able to suit up having failed to practice so far this week.

Kyler Murray is also capable of moving the chains on the ground and stopping the run continues to be a big effort for the Green Bay Packers. The Cardinals should be able to hand the ball off to Chase Edmonds and ask the Running Back to keep the team in third and manageable spots and I do think he will be able to couple up with the Quarter Back to establish the run.

There is a real possibility that Edmonds will be given plenty of touches in this game with the addition of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and I do think he is going to be a key player for the Arizona Cardinals. If there is no DeAndre Hopkins there will be some challenges moving the ball through the air, but the injuries in the Secondary that the Green Bay Packers are dealing with makes it difficult to believe they can completely shut off the Cardinals from being able to throw the ball on them.

I do think this is a big spread and Aaron Rodgers is someone who will be heading into Thursday Night Football knowing that many are ruling out the Green Bay Packers with all of the issues they are dealing with. He could easily secure a backdoor cover, but I do think the Cardinals will be able to make enough plays up front that could see them just stall enough drives to help them remain unbeaten and also cover this mark.

The public are backing the road team, but the sharps seem to be on the Cardinals with the spread ticking up over the last couple of days. Arizona have not been a great home favourite to back in recent years, but they are 2-1 against the spread in that spot this season and I do think the short week will hinder the preparation that the Green Bay Packers can do to cover holes on both sides of the ball.

I am expecting a fun game, but I think the Arizona Cardinals can win and do enough to cover the spread as they remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL this season.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: They have a two game lead at the top of the AFC South and the Tennessee Titans (5-2) will be heading into this Divisional game with plenty of swagger having knocked off the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in back to back weeks. Some may feel the Titans are the team to beat in the AFC after those wins, while a win here would likely mean they have one foot in the PlayOffs even with more than half of the regular season remaining.

The Titans have already held serve at home against the Indianapolis Colts (3-4), but their hosts look to have come out of an early storm and back to back wins have them moving in the right direction again. Wins over Houston and San Francisco may not be anything to write home about, but Indianapolis look healthier now than when they were beaten by the Titans in September and there is much to like about them.

The public are behind the Titans as a road underdog, which is not going to surprise many considering the wins we have seen in the last couple of weeks. However, it is the sharps who have gotten behind the Indianapolis Colts and that has seen the spread move very much in favour of the home team.

I do think the spot is a tough one for the Titans and even playing a Divisional opponent may not be enough to see them motivate themselves having beaten what many have considered to be the top two teams in the AFC. The dominant win over the Kansas City Chiefs will inspire, but Tennessee and Indianapolis have challenged each other significantly in recent seasons and I do think they match up well with each other.

Carson Wentz and the Colts were struggling Offensively when they were beaten at Tennessee, but the Quarter Back looks like he is playing with a lot more confidence now. This is the player that the Colts felt they were trading for and he should be able to have a stronger outing against the Titans.

The Indianapolis Offensive Line is getting stronger and they have begun to bully teams in the trenches which has seen the team establish the run very effectively. It is so important for the Colts to be able to do that as it sparks the entire Offensive game-plan and the feeling is that the Colts will have a big outing from Jonathan Taylor both running the ball and catching out of the backfield.

Over their last three games, the Titans have given up some big runs on the ground and the Colts should be able to keep Carson Wentz in third and manageable spots. It should mean the Quarter Back is given time in the pocket when he does drop back to throw, while the play-action is going to be a real threat for the home team against a Tennessee Secondary which have given up some big numbers even accounting for the three points allowed to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7.

With the Colts expected to have success, Tennessee's best option may be trying to control the clock with Derrick Henry who continues to be one of the top Running Backs in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, the Titans have been very good at getting Henry going, but they are facing a Colts Defensive Line which have improved and really begun to clamp down on the run.

They couldn't quite fully contain Derrick Henry when they met earlier this season, but the Colts have looked better up front in recent games and the key for the team is trying to force Ryan Tannehill to have to beat them with his arm. Ryan Tannehill has played well as the Tennessee Quarter Back, and there are some strong Receivers on which he can rely, but the Titans roll through Derrick Henry.

Taylor Lewan could be back to offer Tannehill more protection on the Offensive Line, but the Colts were able to rattle him in the first game between these AFC South rivals and I do think the home team can 'upset' the public.

Both teams should be able to move the ball, but the Colts are the more desperate team and may be able to make a few more plays against the run which could see them eventually pull clear.

The favourite is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten between these Divisional rivals. Indianapolis have not been the best home favourite to back and they do play on Thursday Night Football, but that is against the lowly New York Jets and the Colts are desperate to get back into the Division race by winning this game.

Opposing the public is a bonus, while the Titans are just 3-17 against the spread when playing on the road against a Divisional opponent with a losing record. That might just be one of those awkward trends that come up in the NFL, but the Indianapolis Colts look like they are playing with real Offensive balance that can see them beat a team off the back of consecutive emotional wins over top AFC rivals.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets Pick: Disclaimer out of the way first- this is a horrible spot for the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) who are playing a third road game in a row having blown out the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens to earn the top Ranking in the AFC after seven weeks of the 2021 season. The win over a Divisional rival in Week 7 means this is a perfect sandwich spot for the Bengals who will be playing the Cleveland Browns next, so why would they be focused on playing an awful non-Division opponent?

However, I think even a 50% effort from the Bengals may be enough to beat a short-handed New York Jets (1-5) who were embarrassed last week in a blow out loss to the New England Patriots. They lost Zach Wilson for up to a month and that means the New York Jets are going to have to give the Quarter Back spot to Mike White who has never started in the NFL before.

Mike White came in and threw for over 200 yards in the loss to the Patriots, but the two Interceptions have to be worrying for a Jets team who have been really poor Offensively all season. They also also having to play on Thursday Night Football this week and it could see a really ugly performance produced in front of their own fans in what is a huge rebuilding job.

The Jets will look at the Cincinnati Bengals for inspiration as to how quickly things can turn around in the NFL if making the right Draft decisions, but in Week 8 of the 2021 season this is a huge mismatch.

As long as Cincinnati are focused and not overlooking this team anyway.

You have to believe Cincinnati are going to be able to do whatever they like Offensively with a healthy team heading to New Jersey for this game. They have a good balance on this side of the ball and skill players like Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon have been contributing all over the field.

In recent games the New York Jets Defensive Line, which has been the strength of the entire team, have been struggling and I do think Joe Mixon can keep the Cincinnati Bengals in manageable Down and distance throughout the game. The Bengals Offensive Line have also given Joe Burrow time to make his plays from Quarter Back and the Jets Secondary don't really look up to the task of slowing down the Bengals.

Those skill players will be getting plenty of headlines, but the reason I feel the Cincinnati Bengals can cover a huge spread on the road is because of the level being produced by the Cincinnati Bengals Defensive unit. A Quarter Back who may be considered a third choice by most teams will find it difficult to make consistent plays against Cincinnati and I do think Mike White is not going to help the Jets score many more points than the 13 points they are averaging in 2021.

It all starts up front for the Jets who have not been able to run the ball efficiently and that has put pressure on the inexperienced Quarter Backs they have been trotting out onto the field. They are not likely to get much out of the Cincinnati Defensive Line either and I do think Mike White will find himself under duress in third and long spots with the Offensive Line offering very little in pass protection.

Teams have had some success throwing against the Bengals as they have been forced to play catch up, but the Cincinnati Secondary have been up to the task and they have only allowed 18 points per game. You have to believe that the Bengals should be too strong for the Jets even with a little bit of focus on the game and they should have too much Offensive firepower for their hosts.

There is an opportunity for a backdoor cover for the Jets, and they have played well enough as a home underdog. However, the overall trends have shown that the New York Jets are a bad team as they have not been very good at the window either and Cincinnati can improve their 4-1 record against the spread in their last five games as the road favourite.

Cincinnati have won by big margins on the road already at Pittsburgh, Detroit and Baltimore this season and they look to be meeting the Jets at the right time.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: It is going to be incredibly difficult to peg back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South this season and the defending Super Bowl Champions look like a team on a mission to win back to back Championships. However, for the likes of the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) and the Carolina Panthers (3-4) may still believe there is a possibility to earn a Wild Card spot and the two games they will play against one another are going to be vital.

The momentum is with the Atlanta Falcons who are hoping to use the feel-good factor in the City to help them in Week 8. The Falcons have won back to back games with their Bye sandwiched in-between, and the players have spoken about the World Series being played over this weekend in Atlanta as helping the fans arrive at the Stadium feeling really good about their teams.

Atlanta will be hosting a Carolina Panthers team that have lost four in a row and who have seemingly begun to lose faith in Quarter Back Sam Darnold. The former New York Jet came to the Panthers in a trade this off-season, but a fast start has been much replaced by signs of Darnold regressing to the player they will recognise in Gotham.

The continued absence of Christian McCaffrey does not help the cause, but Carolina have been able to run the ball with limited success. They will need to do that if they are going to test this Atlanta Defensive unit, especially with the Defensive Line showing better signs of being able to clamp down on the run.

It is so important for the Falcons to try and limit the Carolina Panthers up front, and it will expose Sam Darnold who will have begun to 'see ghosts' again as the Offensive Line have failed to keep the pressure from getting in and around the young player. The Falcons don't have the same kind of pass rush as some of the top Defensive units in the NFL, but making Sam Darnold throw from third and long spots should see Atlanta make enough plays to slow them down.

The passing game has really been struggling and the Panthers have to deal with the improving Atlanta Offensive unit.

Matt Ryan is playing at a much higher level than Sam Darnold and over the last three games the Falcons are averaging 314 passing yards per game. It has largely been down to Matty Ice considering the lack of a run game that the Atlanta Falcons have generated, but the Panthers Defensive unit have been wearing down after beating up on some of the worst teams in the League.

Carolina are struggling in both stopping the run and the pass and I do think the Falcons will be the more confident Offensive unit taking to the field which could see them do enough to win and cover.

The Falcons do have an important game with the New Orleans Saints on deck, but this is a Divisional game in front of a fanbase that is likely to be heading off to support the Braves later in the evening. That should mean there is plenty of positive support for the home team to keep them motivated and focused on a big Divisional game.

Atlanta are 5-1 against the spread in the last six at home against the Carolina Panthers.

They are also 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen against a team with a losing record.

I have to respect how well the Panthers have played when set as the road underdog, but they look short of confidence and I think the home team can pull clear for a win and a cover.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: A loss in Week 6 would have hurt the Buffalo Bills (4-2), but they are the only team in the AFC East with a winning record and there will still be a real feeling that this team is going to be able to finish with the top Seed in the AFC. Coming out of a Bye Week, the Buffalo Bills are looking to bounce back when they play a Divisional opponent they have begun to dominate in recent years.

The Bills have already smashed the Miami Dolphins (1-6) on the road and things have gotten bad to worse for the Dolphins since that defeat. It has been the spark for the six game losing run for the Miami Dolphins who look way off the team that finished 10-6 in 2020 and there are some questions about the Coaching.

Tua Tagovailoa remains the Quarter Back despite the rumours that have been linking the Dolphins with a move for Deshaun Watson. He arguably produced his best ever NFL performance in the narrow loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7, but it was not enough to lead the Dolphins to a win and the last two games have been against Defensive units that are not up to the level of what he will be facing in Week 8.

Having two Offensive Co-Ordinaters working together has not really been a good idea, but Miami will persist with that. It has meant the Offensive plans have not been working as they should and I am not sure they match up that well with the Buffalo Bills Defensive unit.

In recent games it has been possible to run the ball a little more effectively against the Bills, but some of that is down to the level of opponent they have been facing. The Kansas City Chiefs are a team that most will look to load the Secondary and that leaves them light when it comes to defending the run, while the last game for the Bills was against the powerhouse Derrick Henry a couple of weeks ago.

Miami simply are not up to those levels and I am not sure the Bills will respect this passing game- that should mean forcing the Dolphins into third and long spots and trying to rattle Tua Tagovailoa as they did in the Week 2 game when they knocked the Quarter Back out and left him on the sidelines for a few weeks.

The Quarter Back may have DeVante Parker back this week, but it is hard to believe the Dolphins are going to have consistent success throwing the ball against this tough Buffalo Secondary. I expect Miami will be able to score this week, unlike Week 2, but it may not be enough to get within this spread, even at the number it is sitting at.

Injuries have really hurt the Miami Dolphins on both sides of the ball, but being without both starting Defensive Backs has been a huge blow for them. It allowed Trevor Lawrence and Matt Ryan to have strong performances against them over the last couple of weeks and now the Miami Dolphins have to deal with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Offensive unit looking to bounce back from a loss.

They have had the Bye to sort out some issues, but Dawson Knox will be missing. The Bills will need Knox back to have a deep run in the PlayOffs, but in this game there is enough talent for Josh Allen to hit and keep the ball moving.

The Bills should be able to keep the team in front of the chains with their ability to hit some big plays on the ground and the Quarter Back is able to help in that regard. However, I expect Josh Allen to have a really big day throwing the ball against a Secondary that has allowed too many big plays in recent games. Josh Allen is looking like he is getting back to the level he produced in 2020, and I do think he will be able to hurt the Dolphins like he has since being Drafted by Buffalo.

Miami are not putting up the pass rush pressure to give Josh Allen something to think about and I think Buffalo are going to find a way to blow past this Divisional rival again.

The Bills have won six in a row against Miami and four of those wins have come by 17+ points. The last two wins have been by 30+ points and I think the Bills can cover what is a huge number on paper in a Divisional game.

Buffalo are now 7-2 against the spread in their last nine at home against Miami and they are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six out of a Bye Week. The Bills are also 9-3 against the spread in the last twelve as the home favourite and I do like their chances of coming through with a big win in Week 8 to get back on track.

I love how competitive Brian Flores has tended to make Miami and their record against the spread as an underdog has to be respected under the Head Coach. However, Miami look like they are not as focused this season and I think it could see Buffalo put up a very big win.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: There is a lot of respect from the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) and their Coaching staff for the job that Pete Carroll has done on the other American coast. Urban Meyer and his team will be looking to back up the win they earned in London two weeks ago when they travel to the Seattle Seahawks (2-5) who have lost three games in a row.

They have been competitive against the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints, but the Seahawks have come up short without Quarter Back Russell Wilson. Injury is keeping Wilson on the sidelines, but he is hoping to return after the upcoming Bye Week and the Seahawks need to find a way to win this game to at least give themselves a chance to surge back towards the Wild Card spots when Wilson returns.

Both the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals are dominating the NFC West and it is unlikely that the Seahawks will catch either of those teams barring a huge slump in form. However, the added places in the post-season means there is some room for Seattle to fight back and they will need Geno Smith to produce more than he has in the last couple of weeks.

There is an opportunity for Smith to do that and that is largely down to the fact that he is facing a much weaker Defensive unit than the one has seen in his last two starts. Geno Smith does have some talented Receivers that can see him expose a Jacksonville Secondary which have been struggling to stop the pass all season, while the Jaguars Defensive Line have had some issues stopping the run too.

It is hard to trust Geno Smith considering what we have seen from him over the last couple of games, but the Quarter Back may get a little more time in the pocket than he has in those previous starts. The Seattle Offensive Line have really not been able to protect Geno Smith, but Jacksonville are not known for the effectiveness of the pass rush and it should mean Seattle are able to have better Offensive success than they have shown without Russell Wilson.

While I am expecting Seattle to have a stronger Offensive showing, there are still concerns with the way they are performing Defensively and Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are coming in off a Bye and with a win under their belt. Trevor Lawrence has shown enough to believe he can help the Jaguars turn things around in the years ahead, but this team is a work in progress and their development is happening before our eyes.

James Robinson has really taken over at the Running Back position and he has been hugely important to the successes the Jaguars have been having on this side of the ball. In the last month we have seen Seattle having more success at stopping the run, but the Jaguars have been able to open holes for some huge runs from Robinson and keeping the team in third and manageable spots is the key for the road underdog.

It will mean the Jaguars can give Trevor Lawrence a bit more time and an open game-plan to attack a Seattle Secondary which has been having issues throughout the season. The Quarter Back should have enough time to go through his progressions and I think Trevor Lawrence can have a strong enough showing to keep the Jaguars in the game, especially if he can limit the mistakes like he has been.

With the hook on the spread, I think the Jaguars have enough familiarity with the Seattle Seahawks to keep this one close. The Coaching staff and a number of players know the system that Pete Carroll and the Seahawks like to run and with a Bye Week I expect the Jaguars to be well-prepared even if I don't think Urban Meyer is the best Head Coach.

The Seahawks are just 1-4 against the spread in the last five games as the favourite, while Jacksonville are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games as the road underdog. Having more than a Field Goal worth of points with the road team looks enough to keep this one close and I think they can be backed here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints (4-2) have dominated the NFC South in recent years and they have won the last four Divisional crowns. However, it is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1) who are leading the way this season and they also won the last game between these rivals when beating the Saints in the PlayOffs in 2020 and ending Drew Brees' career.

That means there is a double revenge game here- the Saints will be looking to make up for their season ending loss to the Buccaneers, while their Quarter Back, Jameis Winston was jettisoned by the Buccaneers when they had the opportunity to sign Tom Brady.

After a narrow win on Monday Night Football, the New Orleans Saints have two in a row on the road and now will be returning home for the first time since their loss to the New York Giants. Unsurprisingly the Saints are a home underdog against a Tampa Bay team who blew out the Chicago Bears in Week 7 and will be fully focused before heading into their Bye Week.

Even at 6-1, Tampa Bay are looking to show improvement and Bruce Arians has highlighted the fact that the team have been considerably stronger at home than they have been on the road. That has been the case in all facets of the Buccaneers game, but Tom Brady and company have shown they can win in the SuperDome and the motivation to take control of the entire Division with a win should keep them focused.

We all know about Tom Brady and the passing threat that the Buccaneers pose, but they have been getting the run game cranked up and finding the balance is key to their performance on this side of the ball. The New Orleans Saints Defensive Line have shown a real appetite to stop the run, but there has been a couple of cracks in recent games which can be exploited by Tampa Bay as they look to open up the field.

Ultimately it is going to come down to Tom Brady and the strong Receiving corps he has at his disposal, one that will be bolstered by the likelihood of a returning Rob Gronkowski this week. The Tampa Bay Offensive Line have been very effective at giving Tom Brady time in the pocket and he will be throwing into a Saints Secondary which have allowed some big plays through the air.

It should mean the Buccaneers can move the ball with considerable success throughout this game and I think it will put some pressure on the New Orleans Saints who have been inconsistent Offensively.

I can never be sure what we are going to see out of Jameis Winston- he is a Quarter Back that can be very, very good at his best, but he never seems to be far away from a multiple Interception outing that can sink his team before they have a chance. In recent games the Saints Offensive game-plan does not look like it matches up that well with the Tampa Bay Defensive unit and I do believe it will make it difficult for the Saints to keep up with the Buccaneers if the road team are even close to their best.

It has been possible to run the ball against the Tampa Bay Defensive Line, but they are looking healthier this week and New Orleans have not been successful at getting Alvin Kamara going as they would like. A decision has been made to bring back Mark Ingram to help out and make sure the team are in third and manageable spots to aid Winston at Quarter Back, but throwing the ball without Michael Thomas has been a challenge for the Saints.

With an improving Tampa Bay Secondary capable of making some plays even with injuries hurting them, I do think the Buccaneers can find a way to win and cover a big mark on the road.

Tampa Bay were 10 point winners in the NFL PlayOffs when these teams last met here and the road team has improved to 5-2 against the spread in the last seven between these Divisional rivals.

The Buccaneers have not been a very good road favourite to back, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five Divisional games as they look to exert their dominance over their rivals.

New Orleans have been a very good underdog to back under Sean Payton and they are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine when given points at home. However, the Saints are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games against a team with a winning record and I think Tampa Bay can prove themselves as the team to beat in the Division with a very good road win in a tough Stadium.

MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals - 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

NFL Week 7 Picks 2021 (October 21-25)

I won't lie, I absolutely hate this week's slate of games in the NFL.

We have some huge favourites and there are a number of teams out on a Bye Week and that means there are not too many Picks from the Week 7 schedule.

I can't easily back teams with double digit spreads to cover, but the three selections I have made feel pretty good to me. I am looking to bounce back from the first losing Week for the NFL Picks since Week 1, and getting back on a good run of form is important.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: It isn't that long ago that a trip to Foxboro would have been an incredibly difficult test for any team in the NFL, but the New England Patriots (2-4) have lost all four games played here. The last couple of defeats would have really stung the Patriots who lost by 2 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and former Quarter Back Tom Brady, before the Overtime defeat to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.

At least the Patriots will be playing one of the teams they have already beaten in 2021 when they play the New York Jets (1-4) in another Divisional game. The Patriots crushed the Jets on the road earlier this season, but New York are coming in off a Bye Week and I expect them to be a little more aware of what they can do on both sides of the ball when they face New England in Week 7.

The New York Jets were beaten in Week 5 in London, but they are well rested and there have been some positive signs for them, although those are not expected to really manifest until the 2022 season. Playing with a rookie Quarter Back is always going to be a challenge for teams and especially for a first year Head Coach, and it is up to Zach Wilson to show what he has learned from the first meeting with the New England Patriots.

It doesn't help the Quarter Back that the team is unable to establish the run and they have continued to struggle in that aspect of their Offense throughout the season. In recent games the Jets Offensive Line have only opened holes for 3.1 yards per carry and less than 58 yards per game on the ground, and that puts unreasonable pressure on Zach Wilson who is being asked to throw from third and long spots.

He isn't helped by poor Line protection and Zach Wilson is likely going to be under pressure in this game too, while Bill Belichick likely has a couple more tricks up his sleeve to confuse the young Quarter Back.

With New York likely to struggle to move the ball with any kind of consistency, the New England Patriots are rightly strong favourites to win this game. Their own rookie Quarter Back, Mac Jones, has had some strong outings, but the Patriots are a transitioning team despite the money that has been invested in the team this off-season.

They need to make sure they give Mac Jones better opportunities and having an inconsistent running game is just as much of a problem for the Patriots as it is for the Jets. It means the Quarter Back has to try and move the ball from obvious passing spots and the problem is that the New England Offensive Line is not protecting him as well as they would like, which is a problem considering the pressure the New York Jets Defensive Line has managed to get up front.

However, the difference between the teams may be that Mac Jones has a few more weapons in the passing game which has allowed him to move the ball with some success through the air. He is going to be throwing into a New York Secondary which has given up some big plays and I do think New England will have enough scoring to overcome this spread.

The Jets are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six as the underdog, while they failed to cover against New England at home earlier this season and are now 2-6 against the spread in the last eight in this series.

New England have not exactly thrived as the home favourite, which reduces some of the enthusiasm for this pick, but I think Bill Belichick will bamboozle Zach Wilson into a couple of mistakes and it should mean the Patriots are able to win this one by double digits again.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The last three meetings in this Divisional rivalry have been very one-sided in favour of the Baltimore Ravens (5-1), but the Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) will feel they are a much different team now. The top of the AFC North is on the line when these teams meet in Week 7 and every Divisional Game means that much more in what could be a very tightly run contest to decide which team will be moving into the PlayOffs as the Divisional Winner.

The Bengals will feel they are little unfortunate to have two losses on the board, while the Baltimore Ravens have bounced back from a Week 1 loss to win five in a row. The blowout of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6 will have given the Ravens flock plenty to be encouraged about, while Lamar Jackson has dominated this opponent.

Injuries are a little concerning for the Baltimore Ravens, but they have managed to keep the wins going through those and this is a litmus test for the Cincinnati Bengals to show how good they actually are.

The Defensive side of the ball is where Cincinnati have impressed this season, but they are going to have a huge test on the Defensive Line. For much of this season the Bengals have been able to clamp down on the run, but past history against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens suggest it could be a tough day for them on the ground.

Baltimore have gotten the run game going with the consistency we have come to expect and I do think they will find a way to establish the run. However, the Offensive Line has suffered a couple of injuries and that may at least give the Bengals a chance to making some big plays and try and force Jackson to beat them through the air too.

Lamar Jackson may not be an elite thrower of the ball, but he is plenty good enough to have his way with this Secondary and there are some key Receivers that can make plays for him. I think that will give Baltimore a chance to find some balance in their Offensive play-calling and I think they will be able to score points as the Ravens have proven capable of doing all season.

The key in determining how the spread will effect the game is wondering how good the Cincinnati Bengals can be on the Offensive side of the ball. I think they will need to score between 20-24 points to have a chance of covering, but it is a number Joe Burrow and the Bengals can reach judging by what we have seen so far in 2021.

Joe Burrow looks healthy and he has been given some strong Receiving talent that can help him pick up some huge gains through the air. There have been some holes in the Baltimore Secondary and I think Joe Burrow can have success, but he has to hope Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati Offensive Line can also keep Burrow in third and manageable spots to have the time to make his throws.

The Offensive Line have not played as well as they would have liked in opening running lanes or in protecting their Quarter Back, but this Ravens team are not as strong Defensively as they have been in previous seasons. There have been some running lanes against them, and I think Joe Mixon can have a good game which will give the Bengals every chance of staying with their hosts.

The Bengals are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games played in Baltimore and before the blowout here last season, Cincinnati have pushed their Divisional rivals.

You can only respect how strong Baltimore have been when playing against the rest of the AFC North and they are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite. However, this does feel like enough points being given to the road underdog to keep it close and I like the Bengals to do that.

Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Both of these teams have played in London over the last two weeks, but there is going to be a different feeling in the camps as they have returned to the United States. Two weeks ago the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) beat the New York Jets at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and they were given a Bye on their return to America, while last week the Miami Dolphins (1-5) were disappointingly beaten by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Unlike the Falcons, Miami have not been given a Bye and there are some serious questions about the direction in which the team are heading. They were expected to build on last season when they barely missed out on the PlayOffs, but the Dolphins look a mess right now as injuries are piling up on both sides of the ball and with rumours intensifying that they will finally make a move to trade for Deshaun Watson.

It really doesn't help the confidence of Tua Tagovailoa, who played well in the Week 6 defeat to the Jaguars in the United Kingdom capital. The Quarter Back only just returned from an injury, but there are doubts whether he is the franchise Quarter Back that the Miami Dolphins have long been searching for and Miami are hurting.

Brian Flores has been a good Head Coach here, and I think the Dolphins will stick with him, but he has to be thinking about making changes. The dual Offensive Co-Ordinator situation is simply not a good one for the Dolphins and there are so many holes still remaining despite the huge amount of high Draft Picks and Salary Cap space this team have had over the last two seasons.

The Offensive Line continues to be a big concern for the Miami Dolphins and they have not been able to get the run going in the manner they would like. Now they have to face an improving Atlanta Defensive Line which has been stronger up front in recent games than their overall season success and the Falcons will believe they can force Miami into third and long spots often enough to try and put Tua Tagovailoa under pressure.

I do think the Quarter Back showed enough last week to believe he can have some successes throwing the ball against this Secondary, but Miami have a banged up Receiving corps. Tua Tagovailoa should be able to have a decent enough showing, but I am not sure the Dolphins are all on the same page at the moment.

Last season they could rely on the Defensive unit to keep them in games and create some short fields for the Offense, but this has not been the case in 2021. Byron Jones and Xavien Howard could both be missing and that hinders the Miami Secondary considerably, something that Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons should be able to expose.

Calvin Ridley should be ready to play having missed the trip to London and Kyle Pitts is proving his worth as a high First Round Draft Pick, which will all be very encouraging for Matt Ryan and the passing game. Over the last three games, Miami have allowed an average of almost 320 passing yards per game and they are not likely to get a lot of pressure on Matt Ryan who has been well protected in recent games by his Offensive Line.

Miami don't help themselves by struggling to stop the run and even the Atlanta Falcons and their pedestrian rushing Offense can have some joy moving the ball ahead of the chains on the ground. That should only make it that much more comfortable for Matty Ice and I think the Atlanta Falcons are worthy of being a road favourite this week.

The trends show that Atlanta have been a really poor road favourite to back and Miami have been a solid home underdog since Brian Flores took over as Head Coach. However, the Dolphins are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games and I do wonder if this team have lost some faith in the Coaching staff.

The rumours around Tua Tagovailoa cannot be helping anyone and Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons should be well rested and ready to expose the problems the Dolphins are having in the Secondary.

Atlanta do have back to back Divisional Games to be played after this one, but the spot doesn't bother me as much as they are coming in off a Bye. The Falcons are a team that can be hard to trust with their ability to play down to the level of an opponent, but I think they will have too much for the struggling Miami Dolphins who look to have taken a step back from where they were last season.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)