We are past the halfway mark of the College Football season for many of the schools playing around the nation and now the focus may begin to turn to the College Football PlayOff.
It is key for teams to not get too far ahead of themselves if they are going to avoid the banana skins that are littered on the schedule for every team, but you also have to acknowledge that players can just begin to get excited about possibilities in front of them.
Things can change quickly in College Football though and it will be fun to see how the remainder of the regular season pans out.
Tulane Green Wave @ SMU Mustangs Pick: Some of the biggest schools in College Football have already fallen from the ranks of the unbeaten and that may have paved the way for a team from outside the Power 5 Conferences to earn a spot in the PlayOff at the end of the regular season. Most of that attention is focused on the Cincinnati Bearcats, but the SMU Mustangs (6-0) are also unbeaten in the American Athletic Conference and Head Coach Sonny Dykes has to be given a lot of credit for the role he has played in improving the Mustangs.
The SMU Mustangs have had one winning season in six, but the last two seasons under Sonny Dykes have seen the school produce a 17-6 record and they have been perfect halfway through their regular season schedule. However, we are going to learn plenty about the SMU Mustangs in the weeks ahead with the team set to face their biggest rivals for the American Athletic Conference Championship and with three of their hardest games being on the road.
With that in mind it could be a spot where the Mustangs overlook an opponent that has a losing record, but Sonny Dykes has usually got them to focus even when playing teams they are expected to beat. Under this Head Coach, SMU have won all eight Conference games at home when facing a team with a losing record in the Conference and, more impressive, they have produced a 7-1 record against the spread in those games.
The Mustangs will be hosting the Tulane Green Wave (1-5) who have dropped both Conference games played this season and will be hoping that the Bye Week has given them a chance to turn things around. Willie Fritz has led the Green Wave to three consecutive Bowl Games and they have not had a losing record since 2017, but they may not be able to avoid that this season with the next three games looking incredibly tough.
Work will have to have been done to make Tulane more effective on the ground and at least provide some balance to their Offensive play-calling which has been lacking. The Offensive Line have not been able to open consistent holes on the ground and they are not likely to get a lot of change from the Mustangs Defensive Line which is going to put pressure on Michael Pratt at Quarter Back.
Michael Pratt has not played badly, but his Offensive Line has struggle to contain the pass rush and being in obvious passing Downs should give the Mustangs a chance to get after the Quarter Back in this game. Rushing the passer will mean Michal Pratt is likely going to have to get the ball out of his hands quicker than he would like, and that could lead to turnovers and drives stalling.
He should have some success throwing the ball against the Secondary, but the Mustangs are capable of making enough plays to get the ball back in the hands of their powerful Offensive unit.
Unlike the Green Wave, the SMU Mustangs should be able to have success moving the ball on the ground and that is going to be very important for them if they are going to end up the surprise American Athletic Conference Champions. Sonny Dykes has made it clear that teams are likely to load the Secondary and force the Mustangs to have to be patient, but the Green Wave Defensive Line is not one you would feel is good enough to clamp down on the run.
In recent games, Tulane have given up over 215 yards per game on the ground at a very healthy 5.2 yards per carry and it should mean Tanner Mordecai is in a position to have another big outing at Quarter Back. The Mustangs want to be stronger at running the ball, but they have been good all season and I do think Tanner Mordecai will find himself in third and manageable spots on the field.
The SMU Offensive Line have protected the young Quarter Back very well and the time given to Tanner Mordecai has seen 26 Touchdown passes thrown. The Green Wave Defensive unit have not been able to have much success slowing the run, but the Secondary have seen some huge plays made against them too and it feels like the balanced Mustangs can have a lot of success in this one.
Tulane have a decent record against the spread, but they were beaten by 17 points in their last visit to Dallas in 2019.
The Green Wave are also 3-7 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog and I think the SMU Mustangs can return from their Bye with a good looking win before the big games coming up for them.
Cincinnati Bearcats @ Navy Midshipmen Pick: There are most definitely some schools out there that may decide to pack in a season if they have made the same kind of start as the Navy Midshipmen (1-5), but players at this school are likely going to fight until the end. This almost certainly going to be a third losing season under Ken Niumatalolo, but the Midshipmen have been competitive in some of their losses to the better teams they have faced.
An eight point loss to the unbeaten Houston Cougars and a seven point loss to the unbeaten SMU Mustangs backs that up, but Navy were blown out by the Memphis Tigers in Week 7. This is now the fifth tough game in a row and you do have to wonder if the players are feeling a little wear and tear.
They may also be playing a potential College Football PlayOff team this week when hosting the Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0) and it is going to be very difficult to slow down a team who are playing with style points very much on their mind. The Bearcats know merely being unbeaten may not be enough to earn a place in the PlayOff, although the longer the Houston Cougars and SMU Mustangs can maintain their own unbeaten runs will be a boost for whoever can win the American Athletic Conference Championship as an unbeaten team.
Head Coach Luke Fickell will know only too well that a single defeat will be costly and the Cincinnati Bearcats showed how strong they can be by blowing out the UCF Knights at home in Week 7. Road games are naturally much more difficult, but Cincinnati look like they have the schedule to not only win games, but win by such margins that the PlayOff Committee will find it hard to ignore them.
Desmond Ridder and the Offensive unit will always get the headlines, but the Cincinnati Bearcats have really impressed from a Defensive standpoint and now have a chance to lay down a marker to the rest of the Conference. Playing the triple-option is a challenge and it does mean games can feel like they are being shortened with the clock moving all the time, but Cincinnati did blow out the Navy Midshipmen in 2018 having lost on their last visit here in 2017.
It will be the reminder that the Coaches will lay out for the players to make sure they are focused and I do think the Bearcats are capable on the Defensive Line to contain Navy. So far this season this Midshipmen Offensive unit have struggled to match the standards that have been set by the triple option Offense on the ground and they are only picking up 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games.
That has been a season long problem for Navy and they are not expected to get a lot of change from the Bearcats Defensive Line which has prided itself on being able to clamp down on the run. There has not been a lot of confidence in Navy when they have been forced to throw the ball so the key for the Bearcats will be to also put up plenty of points and make the home team move away from the game-plan.
The expectation is that Cincinnati will be able to do that with plenty of success and the signs that Navy may be feeling the intensity of a very tough run of games was clear to see as they allowed the Memphis Tigers to score early and often in Week 7. The Bearcats will be looking to pummel the ball right at the Navy Defensive Line and this Offensive Line will feel they can win in the trenches judging by what we have seen all season.
Establishing the run has made life very easy for Desmond Ridder at Quarter Back and he should be faced with little pass rush pressure as he looks to move the ball through the air. It should give the Bearcats the balance on both sides of the ball to put up some big points and I am not sure Navy will be able to stay with them here.
You have to respect the effort you are likely to get out of the Navy Midshipmen, but Cincinnati are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road and I think they are a team on a mission. It is unlikely that Cincinnati will take their foot off the gas as they look to keep their name in the headlines and I think the Bearcats can cover a huge mark on the road.
Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: Neither of these teams are likely going to push for the Big 12 Championship Game, but that will not reduce the motivation for Conference opponents. The Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2) have not played this opponent very well and they are looking for some momentum before they take on the Oklahoma Sooners next time around, while the Kansas State Wildcats (3-3) have dropped three games in a row.
Those defeats have just made it a slightly more difficult path to become Bowl eligible, but Kansas State have dominated the head to head and will feel they can win on the road. Two seasons ago they were able to win by 3 points on the road in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders have not really been able to use the motivation of losses to this opponent to turn things around.
It has been tough for the Red Raiders playing in the Big 12 and they have not had a winning run in this Conference for a long time. At 2-2 in the Conference, Texas Tech have an opportunity and they will feel they have made enough improvements on both sides of the ball which can give them every chance of winning this game.
A big question for the Texas Tech Red Raiders is whether backup Quarter Back Henri Colombi can continue operating at the level he has been. The team have also been moving ahead with a backup Running Back, but the Red Raiders have not really missed a beat through those injuries and they will certainly feel they can get the better of the Kansas State Defensive unit.
Balancing the Offense is key to a lot of teams and the success they can have and I do think Texas Tech are able to do that here. The Red Raiders have been able to establish the run and the Wildcats Defensive Line has struggled to clamp down on the run as the strength of opponent has improved through the course of the regular season.
It has just paved the way for teams to be able to have success moving the ball through the air and I do think Henri Colombi is going to continue his strong run at Quarter Back. The Wildcats Secondary have given up some big plays, while they have generated very little pass rush which should mean the Red Raiders are able to move the ball up and down the field and score plenty of points.
At the same time, I do think Kansas State are going to have Offensive successes even if Skylar Thompson is banged up. There is plenty of respect for the Quarter Back on the other sideline and Skylar Thompson should be able to have more chances of throwing the ball down the field if his Offensive Line can just pave the way for strong gains on the ground.
Over the last three games it has become a little more difficult for Kansas State to establish the run, but they are facing a struggling Texas Tech Defensive Line. It should give the Wildcats more of an opportunity and I think Deuce Vaughn may have one of his better games running the ball, which should in turn make it more comfortable for Skylar Thompson behind Center.
The Red Raiders Secondary have played pretty well in recent games, but that might be partly down to their inability to stop the run. A limited pass rush should mean Kansas State have plenty of time to throw the ball down the field if they can find themselves moving on the ground and I do think this will be a close game.
Ultimately it may be a slightly more balanced Texas Tech team that can finally see them get the better of the Wildcats. They have the consistency and better momentum than the sliding Kansas State team and that may be enough for the home field advantage to pay off for Texas Tech.
In recent years Kansas State have been a hard team to oppose when they are set as the underdog, but this has become a pick 'em spread and I think Texas Tech edge to the win.
Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: The Big 12 Conference is going to look very different in the years to come and if the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns were to leave today, these two schools may end up being the ones that compete for the Championship Game on an annual basis.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0) remain unbeaten in 2021, but it says all you need to know about their performance level when they are such a considerable underdog to the Iowa State Cyclones (4-2). A couple of disappointing setbacks have hurt the Cyclones, but they have a 2-1 record in the Conference and the Cowboys are at 3-0 and so a win for the home favourite will see them move into the inside lane when it comes to the race for the Championship Game.
It means there is a lot of pressure on both of these teams as they prepare to meet in the biggest game in the Conference this week and I think the upturn in performance level of the Cyclones on both sides of the ball means Iowa State are right to be set as the favourite in this game.
Strong Defensive performances have been the key to the successes the Cowboys have had this season, but Iowa State have looked dominant in their last two games and they will feel that, coupled with home field advantage, gives them a real edge. The Iowa State Defensive unit have just picked up their own level of play and that may see them stifle what has been a relatively low-key Oklahoma State Offense.
The key to the game will be in the trenches and the Iowa State Defensive Line have certainly found a way to clamp down on the run and make it very difficult for opponents to strike the kind of balance they would want. They should be aided by what has been an inconsistent Oklahoma State Offensive Line which has only opened holes for 3.8 yards per carry and clamping down on the run will shift the pressure onto the passing game.
Jaylen Warren may take some issue with the comment about the running ability of the Cowboys considering the improvement he has made, but it won't be easy to find a lot of running lanes against this stout Iowa State Defensive Line. It will likely be up to Spencer Sanders to have to make plays with his arm to just weaken the amount of effort the Cyclones are putting into stopping the run, but the home team have to be favouring their Secondary over the Oklahoma State Receivers too.
They are not the most effective pass rush, but the Cyclones have been confident in stopping teams having consistent success throwing the ball by keeping them in third and long. The Secondary have only allowed an average of 154 passing yards per game this season and I do think Cowboys are going to have some real difficulties moving the ball with any kind of consistency.
It will mean turning to the Defensive unit which has only allowed a little under 20 points per game this season, but that is a side of the ball that Head Coach Mike Gundy is going to believe in. The problem is they are facing Brock Purdy and the Iowa State Offensive unit which has finally found their groove having underachieved earlier in 2021.
Brock Purdy has nine Touchdown passes in his last four games and he is being well backed by Breece Hall and the powerful Iowa State Offensive Line which has been able to more than simply establish the run. The Cyclones have been wearing teams down up front and Hall has been able to punish them by bursting through the holes that have been created and it is going to be the big test for both of these teams.
All season the Cowboys Defensive Line have made it very difficult to run the ball against them, but if Breece Hall and the Cyclones can establish this aspect of their Offense, I do think the entire team is going to very tough to stop.
Brock Purdy will need the running game to just slow the Cowboys pass rush and give him time to make plays against this tough Secondary. Oklahoma State have allowed just 183 passing yards per game over their last three games, and that is a big improvement over the early season performances which will be encouraging for the road underdog.
However, Brock Purdy will be the best Quarter Back they have faced and he has gotten himself going after a slow start to the season. It is his plays, coupled with the Offensive Line's bullying performances, which suggest the Cyclones can produce a big win. I just don't think the Cowboys have the Offense to keep up with the home team here and eventually it will lead to a double digit win for Iowa State against this unbeaten opponent.
I have nothing but respect for Mike Gundy and the Oklahoma State Cowboys who tend to thrive in the underdog role, but my feeling is that the Cyclones are too good on the trenches and that can make the difference for them on the day.
MY PICKS: SMU Mustangs - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 27.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Iowa State Cyclones - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars + 4.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 19.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Week 7: 5-4, + 0.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.56% Yield)
Week 6: 3-3, - 0.27 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)
Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)
Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)
Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)
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