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Saturday, 30 October 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 10 Picks 2021 (October 30-November 1)

I'll be honest, I have not watched one minute of football since around 625pm last Sunday when concluding watching my team leave the pitch at Old Trafford.

There really is nothing more to say as we get ready to begin the week which will conclude with the November international break.


Leicester City v Arsenal Pick: The first game of the Premier League weekend sees Arsenal once again in front of the television cameras as both them and their hosts, Leicester City, look to continue what has been a positive run of form.

Both of these teams progressed to the League Cup Quarter Final during the week and both Leicester City and Arsenal have been moving up the Premier League standings after disappointing starts to the season. That will have given the players plenty of belief as they look to produce another big week before the latest international break sees the players jet off to represent their countries.

There is much to like about the performances of both Leicester City and Arsenal over the last month, but I think the home advantage for The Foxes can be important.

They were beaten twice by Arsenal at the King Power Stadium last season, but those were fixtures behind closed doors and it is different with crowds. Leicester City have won their last 3 at home against Arsenal with the supporters inside the King Power Stadium and the recent Arsenal unbeaten run has been built on home form.

Arsenal were fortunate to win at Burnley and to avoid defeat at Brighton, but Leicester City are scoring plenty of goals. Defensively there are questions for Leicester City to answer, but Arsenal have not offered the same attacking threat away from the Emirates Stadium as they have at home.

There is quality and pace in the counter attack which could make Arsenal dangerous, but Leicester City look to have turned a corner. This should be a competitive fixture, but Leicester City's attacking consistency could prove to be the difference on the day and I think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap to earn a vital three points.


Burnley v Brentford Pick: Over the years, this has been the kind of match that Burnley have found a way to win and it is those results which have ensured they have spent a number of seasons in the Premier League.

They have yet to win in the 2021/22 Premier League season, but Burnley have picked up a few points over the last month which has kept them just about in touch with those above them. The fixture list looks to be getting much kinder for Burnley in the weeks ahead, but they did fail to beat Norwich City here and that means they have not won any of their last 14 Premier League games at Turf Moor.

The team are not creating as many chances as they would like and Burnley have not been as intense defensively either. Put that together and it is very difficult to find wins, while it also leaves them potentially vulnerable to a defeat this weekend.

Brentford arrive having won their last 3 away games in all competitions and even the two Premier League losses in recent weeks is not expected to dent the belief of this squad. They deserved a lot more than they got against Chelsea and Leicester City and being able to compete with those clubs means Brentford will feel very confident going into a set of fixtures which look much more winnable on paper.

They have played really well at Wolves and West Ham United in winning efforts there and Brentford look like they are capable of making it three Premier League away wins in a row. David Raya will be a big absentee for Brentford, but the win at Stoke City in the League Cup during the week shows this is a team that will take things a game at a time and will not allow defeats to affect them too much.

Winning at Burnley is never easy, but Sean Dyche's men have lost 6 of their last 8 Premier League games at Turf Moor. The chances that Brentford are likely to create coupled with the pretty decent defensive shape they can produce means the away team look a good team to back on the Asian Handicap to secure a vital three points.


Liverpool v Brighton Pick: Counter attacking at its finest helped Manchester City beat Brighton comfortably at the Amex Stadium last weekend and that has to be a worry for Graham Potter after seeing how efficient Liverpool had been going forward in their big win at Old Trafford.

Unsurprisingly the layers all feel that Liverpool should be big favourites to win this game, but Jurgen Klopp will be reminding his players that it was Brighton who took 4 points out of their two League meetings last season.

Brighton were one of a number of teams who won games at Anfield in the Premier League, but this Liverpool team is flying and it is going to be a challenge to contain them. However, even at their best, Liverpool have not really blown Brighton away at Anfield and this could be a tough fixture if the home team are expecting to just need to turn up and roll over The Seagulls.

I do think recent games involving Brighton have seen the team just struggle when it comes to their defensive assignments and that is something that Liverpool can exploit. They have conceded six goals over the last seven days and I think Liverpool are well rested and they should be able to pick up from where they left off last Sunday.

Liverpool have been creating chances, but they are not nearly as defensively secure as some believe after one victory. Graham Potter may feel the best defence for his team is getting forward and challenging Liverpool, but that could leave them vulnerable here and the feeling is that the home team will win by a couple of goals on the day.

It won't be a straight-forward win, but Liverpool's attacking threat can see them create enough to put Brighton away and earn revenge for the defeat here in February.


Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: There are as many points between 4th place and 10th place in the Premier League as there are between 4th place and 3rd placed Manchester City and the feeling is that the top three Premier League clubs are significantly stronger than the rest of the Division.

That doesn't mean they are going to win every game against those further down the standings, as Southampton proved by drawing here in the Premier League, but it does mean that Crystal Palace are going to have to handle the pressure that Manchester City will exert on them.

Patrick Vieira's style has been pleasing to watch and Crystal Palace have caused problems for West Ham United and Arsenal away from home. Better finishing and better concentration would have seen Crystal Palace operating much further up the Premier League table, but that should not be something that stops Manchester City from showing their class.

Crystal Palace have also been beaten at Chelsea and Liverpool this season and both of those fixtures ended 3-0 in favour of the home team. The new style does leave Crystal Palace a bit more open defensively than they would have been under Roy Hodgson and Manchester City have shown they can create chances and score plenty of goals even without a recognised number nine for many fixtures.

The 1-4 win at Brighton underlined the point and Manchester City should have too much for Crystal Palace here. The key for the visitors has to be trying to stay in the game for as long as possible, but Crystal Palace could not quite get to half time in either of the defeats at Stamford Bridge or Anfield and I think Manchester City are more likely to match those margins of victory than have to settle for a draw like they did when hosting Southampton.

This is a very big margin on the handicap, but Manchester City would have covered it twice in their 4 home League games and also managed to do that in the Champions League win over Leipzig and the League Cup win over Wycombe Wanders. Even in the victory over Burnley it would have been a push and I think the chances being created should see Manchester City produce a strong win on Saturday.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: In the next few seasons, Newcastle United versus Chelsea could be a fixture that has a major impact on the destination of some of the biggest trophies in England and European Football.

However, those days are in the future and right now there is a significant gap between these squads. Newcastle United are in the bottom three and looking to avoid relegation, while Chelsea are top of the Premier League table and amongst the favourites both domestically and in the Champions League and I expect that to show up here.

Graeme Jones did help Newcastle United avoid a defeat last weekend, but they were outplayed by Crystal Palace and this is another leap in terms of quality of opponent. The club may be under new ownership, but that doesn't mean the players are much better and Newcastle United are struggling at both ends of the field.

Better finishing from Crystal Palace would have secured three points last weekend and Newcastle United cannot expect Chelsea to be as wasteful. The absence of both Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner hurts Chelsea, but they did score seven goals against Norwich City without them and they will be encouraged by seeing how easily Tottenham Hotspur scored goals here a couple of weeks ago.

Chelsea have won 2 of their last 3 fixtures at St James' Park and they have already passed tests at tougher teams than the one they will see on Saturday. Defensively they don't give a lot away and I think Chelsea will have enough quality in the final third to be able to secure a comfortable looking victory to maintain their lead at the top of the Premier League table.


Watford v Southampton Pick: One of the main areas in which Claudio Ranieri will be expected to improve this Watford team is the defensive performances, but they have conceded seven goals in the two games under the veteran Italian manager. However, Watford will be heading into this weekend with a spring in the step after scoring four goals inside the final 15 minutes at Goodison Park to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 2-5 win.

It is an important three points for Watford, but Ranieri will be working his squad very hard in training this week to make sure they are harder to play against. The goals being conceded in recent home games is a worry and makes it hard for Watford to pick up the results they are going to need, but they may be playing the right opponent to try and turn that around.

Southampton have been playing some very good football under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they have not had the consistent finishing touch to that football. Danny Ings has moved on, but Adam Armstrong has yet to really convince at this level and it has arguably been the main reason Southampton do not have more points on the board.

In saying that, Southampton might have found someone in Armando Broja who can give them a cutting edge and they did score twice in the home draw with Burnley last week. The manager will know his team deserved more than they earned that day, but he has to be encouraged by the attacking performance and Hasenhuttl will believe it can see the squad turn in a few more positive results.

The two wins over Watford a couple of seasons ago will give Southampton further belief, but I expect the home team to cause problems too and this feels like a game that should feature at least three goals. In the 2019/20 season, both League fixtures between the clubs ended with three or more goals shared out, while 3 of the last 4 at Vicarage Road between Watford and Southampton have ended the same way.

The attacking chances being created has to encourage by teams, but neither has looked that secure at the back either. Southampton may feel more hard done by when looking at recent results, but I think they are playing with confidence and both of these teams may be more effective getting forward than at the back.

It may not be the most appealing game for the neutrals, especially not on paper, but I think Watford and Southampton will produce a fixture with goals here.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: A few weeks ago, fans of both of these clubs may have been expecting to be watching a game between two high-flying teams, but both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United have been involved in miserable runs.

It means both Nuno Espirito Santo and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer are under immense pressure going into the weekend and it really would not be a major surprise if the losing team is searching for a new manager in the near future.

Limp losses to rivals last Sunday links Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United and there is going to be some real confidence issues going into the game on Saturday. Tottenham Hotspur at least won at Burnley in the League Cup Fourth Round during the week to erase memories of the 1-0 defeat at West Ham United a few days earlier, but confidence is not going to be in the best place.

They are at least facing an opponent who might not be able to drop much lower than being humiliated at home by Liverpool and I do think the first goal is going to be massive.

Spurs have won 8 of their last 10 at home, which should be inspire them, but the first goal is going to be massive in this fixture. That goes for both teams as there are questions whether the squads are still behind the manager at the helm and I think we are going to have some big answers in front of the television cameras.

It is certainly the case for the Manchester United squad who spent much of Monday leaking stories about their dissatisfaction with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. The Norwegian manager likely will never be closer to the Sack without being Sacked as he was on Monday after thousands had streamed out of Old Trafford at half time in the defeat to Liverpool, but now we will get to see how the squad will react and whether they have downed tools to remove Solskjaer.

Picking a winner has so much uncertainty about it- I did think Manchester United could bounce back, but Tottenham Hotspur have been a little more organised at home and this may not be the free-scoring game some think.

Manchester United have been messy defensively in their last three games, but Tottenham Hotspur have not found the balance between attack and defence. They have not been creating a lot of chances and I do think this is a fixture which could see one of the teams fail to find the net.

Both teams have scored in 3 of the 4 away Manchester United games in the Premier League, but if the squad is no longer interested, this could be a tough fixture. Tottenham Hotspur have seen 3 of 4 home League games end with one of the teams failing to find the back of the net and I do think both managers may be looking to make sure their team is able to be much more secure defensively than they have shown over the last few games.

One of the teams failing to score is a big price and I do think that is going to be the outcome of this one with neither team looking to give to much away. Neither is good enough defensively to believe in, but there is uncertainty about the motivations of the squads and that could contribute to a tight, low-scoring fixture.


Norwich City v Leeds United Pick: Games against the top clubs are not going to determine Norwich City's future in the Premier League this season, but that should not see anyone ignore the capitulation they had at Stamford Bridge last Saturday. Losing at Chelsea is going to be an experience for many clubs this season, but losing 7-0 just puts Norwich City under the spotlight a little more as they continue to be questioned about their suitability to play at this level.

The club is pretty well run which means they have proven to be too good for the Championship, but Norwich City have not really been competitive in their last couple of seasons in the Premier League. This looks like another season in which they will be relegation without much of a fight and it is up to Daniel Farke and his players to disprove that feeling.

Norwich City have not been that good defensively and that only highlights their struggles at the other end of the field. You are not going to win matches without scoring goals and Norwich City have managed a single strike in 7 games in all competitions.

However, they will be encouraged by back to back clean sheets before the hammering at Chelsea and it is something Norwich City can build on. They did create some decent chances against Brighton, but there is a pressure on the forward players to produce the goods knowing how hard it is for Norwich City to score goals.

They could be playing Leeds United at a good time though and that is because Marcelo Bielsa's team have been struggling for goals too. Leeds United were known for their attacking intent in the Premier League last season, but they have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 9 in all competitions, while Leeds United have not scored a single goal in 3 away games.

Patrick Bamford's absence has been a blow, but Raphinha has been struggling for fitness too and the Brazilian will be a big miss if he cannot take part this weekend. It will certainly offer Norwich City a chance to earn their first win of the season considering Leeds United have not had an away clean sheet in the Premier League in the 2021/22 campaign, and I do think the visitors are plenty short to win here.

I won't deny that I feel Norwich City are the worst team in the Premier League this season, but they have created chances in home games and a single strike may be enough to secure a point. The clean sheets against Burnley and Brighton before the thumping at Chelsea are encouraging and Leeds United may be vulnerable if their key attacking players are absent in the first of two live Sunday games.

Leeds United are a shorter price than Brighton were to win here earlier this month and there is nothing in the performances of the former to suggest that should be the case. The lack of goals gives Norwich City every chance to earn a positive result and I think they can be backed on the handicap to do that.


Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: These two teams both play in claret and blue at home and both Aston Villa and West Ham United would have gone into the season with some big expectations from the fans.

Pundits may have been a little more uncertain, but West Ham United are proving that last season was anything but a fluke and they are looking strong. The 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday has moved West Ham United into the top four and they have been playing really well out of the October international break.

The squad looks deeper than many thought and David Moyes has the players all on the same page, which has led to some very strong performances. West Ham United have been particularly impressive away from the London Stadium and I do think they are capable of backing up their League win here in February.

Selling Jack Grealish did mean there was some uncertainty about how Aston Villa would react, but Dean Smith had reinvested significant sums. The hope was that those players could make up for the sale of their top player, but Aston Villa have struggled for consistency and that is largely down to the porous defensive performances that had not been evident last season.

It has nothing to do with the sale of Jack Grealish, but instead it feels like Aston Villa have been punished for the chances they have been giving up much more than they had been in the 2020/21 season. That has led to setbacks and a number of losses already and I do think West Ham United are the superior team.

You can't really underestimate some of the quality that Aston Villa have, but they have been conceding a lot more chances than West Ham United. If that plays out the same way on Sunday, I think West Ham United have shown they can play away from the London Stadium and produce big results where needed and backing the away team to come through with a win on the handicap looks the play.


Wolves v Everton Pick: Monday Night Football will come from Molineux this weekend and both Wolves and Everton are going to be expecting to challenge for European berths at the end of this season. Neither side really reached the level of expectation last season, but new managers have come in and there have been some positives to hold onto.

Momentum has moved in different directions though.

Wolves started out with some very poor results under Bruno Lage, but the performances had been better than those results indicated. In recent weeks the results have improved markedly and they are unbeaten in 4 Premier League games during which time Wolves have picked up 10 points from a possible 12.

Finding the balance between attack and defence at home is still a work in progress for Bruno Lage, but Wolves did beat Newcastle United here last time out. They have played better in other games, but a win will have just got the team feeling positive about playing here and I think that gives Wolves an edge.

Everton did beat Wolves both at home and away in the Premier League last season, but a positive start to this season has been replaced with much tougher performances. The back to back home losses to West Ham United and Watford would have stung the fans, especially as Everton have looked really messy at the back in those two losses.

It is not what you would expect from a Rafael Benitez team, but injuries are really hurting this team. Richarlison has returned and may have more minutes in the legs this week, but being without both Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a big blow for a team looking to bounce back from two very poor outings.

They have not won any of their last 3 away games in all competitions and Everton may just be vulnerable to the pace and quality that Wolves can produce in the final third. Raul Jimenez looks to be reaching his best levels again and I think he can make the difference between the two teams.

Wolves will not have things easy, but they should be the more confident of the two teams. I expect Rafael Benitez to be working his players very hard after conceding five at home against Watford, and they should have a better defensive shape, but Wolves have put the positive results together and I think they can be backed for the three points.

MY PICKS: Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap
Brentford 0 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Watford-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United Both Teams to Score- NO
Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap
West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap
Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 10
That will teach me for going heart over head.

Mohamed Salah was clearly the right play as the Captain last week, but I could not go against United.

That will be the last time I allow my heart to dictate how I will feel about any GW, at least until Manchester United start to act like a big club. The fact that there were no changes made following the embarrassment of last week just underlines how little the club care, and that means I will have to make sure the head rules the heart going forward.

The Egyptian will be given my Captain armband this week, but I was just as irritated with Kai Havertz who has gone into full troll mode this week.

Not only was he the only Chelsea starter that didn't earn any attacking returns from a 7-0 win over Norwich City, but he scored in the League Cup during the week to put a spotlight on his shithousery. There is almost no doubt that Salah will blank this week and Havertz will score twice at St James' Park, but that is only going to happen if I Captain the former and that has to be the right play.

Last month I did mention that I would like to roll a Free Transfer through the international break, but injuries meant that was not possible. However, I think that is likely to be the case this week with the bench capable of making up for some of the injuries my squad is currently dealing with.

I will post my full team on Twitter on Saturday before the 12:30pm kick off, but I won't be making any transfers and the starting eleven looks like it picks itself.

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