The Week 4 of the NFL is not a pivotal time of the season as far as the Super Bowl Winner will go, but it is a time teams can blow chances to earn post-season spots.
That may sound dramatic, but history has shown falling into 1-3 and 0-4 holes have been almost impossible to overcome. We do have an expanded PlayOff this season, but I still think it is difficult to overturn those starts, so it is a big week for some big name teams.
I should have a much fuller thread in Week 5 of the NFL season which will begin next Thursday.
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Playing on a short week is never ideal for any team in the NFL, but back to back wins will have given the Dallas Cowboys (2-1) plenty of confidence. The spot is a little concerning with this Week 4 game being played between two Divisional games, but the Cowboys have momentum and they are not expected to overlook an opponent that is unbeaten.
The Carolina Panthers (3-0) have been one of the more surprising teams to open the season, but they have taken advantage of a very soft schedule and this is a big step up for them. To make matters worse, the Panthers are going to be without some key players on both sides of the ball and that leaves them vulnerable, even though they have had additional time to prepare for this game having beaten the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
Christian McCaffrey is the big loss for the unbeaten Panthers and that may mean they are going to have to lean on Sam Darnold even more. The young Quarter Back has not played badly at all for his new team and he is going up against another Defensive unit that is perhaps not up to the standard of the top units in the NFL.
Running the ball may be an issue for the Carolina Offensive Line as they have struggled to get McCaffrey going and now will have to do something for a back up Running Back. There has been one or two holes up front for the Dallas Cowboys so the Panthers may have some success, but the feeling is that this could potentially develop into a shoot out and that means needing to lean on the pass more than usual.
Sam Darnold has produced some very positive performances for the team, but Dallas Defensive Co-Ordinator may be a little more aware of what the Panthers want to do than most. His Secondary have given up some big plays, but Dallas are also a ball-hawking team that will create turnovers, even with some issues they have had putting pressure on the passer.
Giving up extra possessions to Dak Prescott and the Dallas Offensive unit is not going to be ideal for the Carolina Panthers even though the Defensive unit have played above expectations so far this season. Beating Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston and Davis Mills is not exactly a list of a 'who's who' of the NFL Quarter Backs and Dak Prescott has looked like he has never been away despite a serious injury early in the 2020 season.
With an Offensive Line which is looking to pave the way for big gains on the ground and with a Quarter Back making the right decisions and the big plays, I do think Dallas can move the chains against this tough Carolina Defensive unit. The trenches are going to be key, but Tony Pollard is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield and I do think the Dallas Receivers can pick up from where they left off in the dominant win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3.
As I have said, the spot is not exactly ideal between two Divisional games, but I do think the Cowboys will be focused and they should have too much for the improved Carolina Panthers team. I have to respect the fact that the Panthers have covered in their last eight road games, but they are without their top Offensive player and this may be the most pressurised spot for Sam Darnold so far early in his Panthers career.
The bigger plays should come from the Dak Prescott arm and I think he will lead the Cowboys to a third straight win and a fourth cover of the season.
MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New York Giants + 7.5 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
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