I won't lie, I absolutely hate this week's slate of games in the NFL.
We have some huge favourites and there are a number of teams out on a Bye Week and that means there are not too many Picks from the Week 7 schedule.
I can't easily back teams with double digit spreads to cover, but the three selections I have made feel pretty good to me. I am looking to bounce back from the first losing Week for the NFL Picks since Week 1, and getting back on a good run of form is important.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: It isn't that long ago that a trip to Foxboro would have been an incredibly difficult test for any team in the NFL, but the New England Patriots (2-4) have lost all four games played here. The last couple of defeats would have really stung the Patriots who lost by 2 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and former Quarter Back Tom Brady, before the Overtime defeat to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.
At least the Patriots will be playing one of the teams they have already beaten in 2021 when they play the New York Jets (1-4) in another Divisional game. The Patriots crushed the Jets on the road earlier this season, but New York are coming in off a Bye Week and I expect them to be a little more aware of what they can do on both sides of the ball when they face New England in Week 7.
The New York Jets were beaten in Week 5 in London, but they are well rested and there have been some positive signs for them, although those are not expected to really manifest until the 2022 season. Playing with a rookie Quarter Back is always going to be a challenge for teams and especially for a first year Head Coach, and it is up to Zach Wilson to show what he has learned from the first meeting with the New England Patriots.
It doesn't help the Quarter Back that the team is unable to establish the run and they have continued to struggle in that aspect of their Offense throughout the season. In recent games the Jets Offensive Line have only opened holes for 3.1 yards per carry and less than 58 yards per game on the ground, and that puts unreasonable pressure on Zach Wilson who is being asked to throw from third and long spots.
He isn't helped by poor Line protection and Zach Wilson is likely going to be under pressure in this game too, while Bill Belichick likely has a couple more tricks up his sleeve to confuse the young Quarter Back.
With New York likely to struggle to move the ball with any kind of consistency, the New England Patriots are rightly strong favourites to win this game. Their own rookie Quarter Back, Mac Jones, has had some strong outings, but the Patriots are a transitioning team despite the money that has been invested in the team this off-season.
They need to make sure they give Mac Jones better opportunities and having an inconsistent running game is just as much of a problem for the Patriots as it is for the Jets. It means the Quarter Back has to try and move the ball from obvious passing spots and the problem is that the New England Offensive Line is not protecting him as well as they would like, which is a problem considering the pressure the New York Jets Defensive Line has managed to get up front.
However, the difference between the teams may be that Mac Jones has a few more weapons in the passing game which has allowed him to move the ball with some success through the air. He is going to be throwing into a New York Secondary which has given up some big plays and I do think New England will have enough scoring to overcome this spread.
The Jets are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six as the underdog, while they failed to cover against New England at home earlier this season and are now 2-6 against the spread in the last eight in this series.
New England have not exactly thrived as the home favourite, which reduces some of the enthusiasm for this pick, but I think Bill Belichick will bamboozle Zach Wilson into a couple of mistakes and it should mean the Patriots are able to win this one by double digits again.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The last three meetings in this Divisional rivalry have been very one-sided in favour of the Baltimore Ravens (5-1), but the Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) will feel they are a much different team now. The top of the AFC North is on the line when these teams meet in Week 7 and every Divisional Game means that much more in what could be a very tightly run contest to decide which team will be moving into the PlayOffs as the Divisional Winner.
The Bengals will feel they are little unfortunate to have two losses on the board, while the Baltimore Ravens have bounced back from a Week 1 loss to win five in a row. The blowout of the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 6 will have given the Ravens flock plenty to be encouraged about, while Lamar Jackson has dominated this opponent.
Injuries are a little concerning for the Baltimore Ravens, but they have managed to keep the wins going through those and this is a litmus test for the Cincinnati Bengals to show how good they actually are.
The Defensive side of the ball is where Cincinnati have impressed this season, but they are going to have a huge test on the Defensive Line. For much of this season the Bengals have been able to clamp down on the run, but past history against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens suggest it could be a tough day for them on the ground.
Baltimore have gotten the run game going with the consistency we have come to expect and I do think they will find a way to establish the run. However, the Offensive Line has suffered a couple of injuries and that may at least give the Bengals a chance to making some big plays and try and force Jackson to beat them through the air too.
Lamar Jackson may not be an elite thrower of the ball, but he is plenty good enough to have his way with this Secondary and there are some key Receivers that can make plays for him. I think that will give Baltimore a chance to find some balance in their Offensive play-calling and I think they will be able to score points as the Ravens have proven capable of doing all season.
The key in determining how the spread will effect the game is wondering how good the Cincinnati Bengals can be on the Offensive side of the ball. I think they will need to score between 20-24 points to have a chance of covering, but it is a number Joe Burrow and the Bengals can reach judging by what we have seen so far in 2021.
Joe Burrow looks healthy and he has been given some strong Receiving talent that can help him pick up some huge gains through the air. There have been some holes in the Baltimore Secondary and I think Joe Burrow can have success, but he has to hope Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati Offensive Line can also keep Burrow in third and manageable spots to have the time to make his throws.
The Offensive Line have not played as well as they would have liked in opening running lanes or in protecting their Quarter Back, but this Ravens team are not as strong Defensively as they have been in previous seasons. There have been some running lanes against them, and I think Joe Mixon can have a good game which will give the Bengals every chance of staying with their hosts.
The Bengals are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games played in Baltimore and before the blowout here last season, Cincinnati have pushed their Divisional rivals.
You can only respect how strong Baltimore have been when playing against the rest of the AFC North and they are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite. However, this does feel like enough points being given to the road underdog to keep it close and I like the Bengals to do that.
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Both of these teams have played in London over the last two weeks, but there is going to be a different feeling in the camps as they have returned to the United States. Two weeks ago the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) beat the New York Jets at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and they were given a Bye on their return to America, while last week the Miami Dolphins (1-5) were disappointingly beaten by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Unlike the Falcons, Miami have not been given a Bye and there are some serious questions about the direction in which the team are heading. They were expected to build on last season when they barely missed out on the PlayOffs, but the Dolphins look a mess right now as injuries are piling up on both sides of the ball and with rumours intensifying that they will finally make a move to trade for Deshaun Watson.
It really doesn't help the confidence of Tua Tagovailoa, who played well in the Week 6 defeat to the Jaguars in the United Kingdom capital. The Quarter Back only just returned from an injury, but there are doubts whether he is the franchise Quarter Back that the Miami Dolphins have long been searching for and Miami are hurting.
Brian Flores has been a good Head Coach here, and I think the Dolphins will stick with him, but he has to be thinking about making changes. The dual Offensive Co-Ordinator situation is simply not a good one for the Dolphins and there are so many holes still remaining despite the huge amount of high Draft Picks and Salary Cap space this team have had over the last two seasons.
The Offensive Line continues to be a big concern for the Miami Dolphins and they have not been able to get the run going in the manner they would like. Now they have to face an improving Atlanta Defensive Line which has been stronger up front in recent games than their overall season success and the Falcons will believe they can force Miami into third and long spots often enough to try and put Tua Tagovailoa under pressure.
I do think the Quarter Back showed enough last week to believe he can have some successes throwing the ball against this Secondary, but Miami have a banged up Receiving corps. Tua Tagovailoa should be able to have a decent enough showing, but I am not sure the Dolphins are all on the same page at the moment.
Last season they could rely on the Defensive unit to keep them in games and create some short fields for the Offense, but this has not been the case in 2021. Byron Jones and Xavien Howard could both be missing and that hinders the Miami Secondary considerably, something that Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons should be able to expose.
Calvin Ridley should be ready to play having missed the trip to London and Kyle Pitts is proving his worth as a high First Round Draft Pick, which will all be very encouraging for Matt Ryan and the passing game. Over the last three games, Miami have allowed an average of almost 320 passing yards per game and they are not likely to get a lot of pressure on Matt Ryan who has been well protected in recent games by his Offensive Line.
Miami don't help themselves by struggling to stop the run and even the Atlanta Falcons and their pedestrian rushing Offense can have some joy moving the ball ahead of the chains on the ground. That should only make it that much more comfortable for Matty Ice and I think the Atlanta Falcons are worthy of being a road favourite this week.
The trends show that Atlanta have been a really poor road favourite to back and Miami have been a solid home underdog since Brian Flores took over as Head Coach. However, the Dolphins are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games and I do wonder if this team have lost some faith in the Coaching staff.
The rumours around Tua Tagovailoa cannot be helping anyone and Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons should be well rested and ready to expose the problems the Dolphins are having in the Secondary.
Atlanta do have back to back Divisional Games to be played after this one, but the spot doesn't bother me as much as they are coming in off a Bye. The Falcons are a team that can be hard to trust with their ability to play down to the level of an opponent, but I think they will have too much for the struggling Miami Dolphins who look to have taken a step back from where they were last season.
MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)
Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment