Another week of College Football action is set to begin and I am looking for a fourth winning week in succession.
The last couple of weeks have been close run things, but I am hopeful a big week for the College Football Picks is just around the corner.
Texas Longhorns @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: I am never a big fan of being on the same side as the public play and especially not when you think of how poor the Texas Longhorns (3-1) record is against the TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) since the latter joined the Big 12 Conference. The Longhorns have bounced back from a setback against the Arkansas Razorbacks, but they will likely need to run the table in the Big 12 and win the Championship Game if they are going to have any chance of being involved in the College Football PlayOff.
They have begun in a positive manner by absolutely dismantling the Texas Tech Red Raiders, but the TCU Horned Frogs is a different kind of test. Texas have also been boosted by the form that the Razorbacks have continued to produce and it will be a defeat that will largely be ignored if Arkansas are able to beat the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 5.
However, that won't mean anything if the Texas Longhorns cannot win this game before they face the Oklahoma Sooners next week. The performance last week is encouraging and the Longhorns will feel they have finally identified their starting Quarter Back, which should also help with the consistency moving forward.
Hudson Card had begun the season at Quarter Back for Texas, but it was Casey Thompson who dominated the Texas Tech Secondary in Week 4 and he will believe he can pick up from where he left off. The benefit for the Quarter Back is the strong Offensive Line the Longhorns are running onto the field and that has seen Texas pummel teams into submission on the ground.
Bijan Robinson had another huge outing for Texas and he can certainly make life easier for Casey Thompson by establishing the run behind this Offensive Line. The Longhorns are picking 6.1 yards per carry this season and Robinson will be going up against the Horned Frogs Defensive Line which was just trampled by the SMU Mustangs in an upset home loss.
It would be a big surprise if Texas are not able to establish the run and that should put the team in third and short spots at the very least. It is a position that Casey Thompson will be looking to exploit as the Longhorns try and extend their run of drives without the need for a Punt and Texas should have considerable success moving the chains in this game.
Even with that in mind, this is going to be a far from easy game for the Longhorns against the TCU Horned Frogs who have matched up well with them. Gary Patterson will be extremely upset with the way his team played in the defeat to the Mustangs in Week 4 and I do think the Horned Frogs will be a lot stronger all around in this one.
While they may not be able to stop the Texas Longhorns regularly, the TCU Offensive Line has been impressive when setting up the run themselves and we saw Texas struggle to contain that aspect of the Arkansas Offensive unit in the loss earlier this season. The Horned Frogs will look to pound the ball right at the Longhorns and that should give the experienced Quarter Back, Max Duggan, an opportunity for a big showing too.
Both teams should be moving the ball and it may come down to a turnover or two to determine the outcome of this one, but I also think the Texas Longhorns have something to prove which should motivate them plenty. This is the toughest team the TCU Horned Frogs will have faced in 2021, but they are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven against Texas and that really can't be ignored easily.
Texas are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games as the favourite and although they laid an egg in the defeat in Arkansas, I think they can put some momentum behind their performances before the big game with the Oklahoma Sooners. This is a spread where the sharps look to be on the TCU Horned Frogs, but I think the Texas Longhorns may have enough Offensive power and in the Secondary to cover the mark in the road win.
Louisville Cardinals @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: A perfect start to the season for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-0) and that includes winning their opening two ACC Divisional games. With the Clemson Tigers struggling, the Demon Deacons may be a surprising contender to not only win the ACC Championship, but perhaps even earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff.
Dave Clawson has to be demanding his players focus on just getting through to their Bye Week with an unbeaten record and he won't want the Demon Deacons overlooking the Louisville Cardinals (3-1). Wake Forest have already matched the same number of wins recorded in the 2020 season, but it would still be a remarkable achievement for them to win this Division and take part in the ACC Championship Game despite the strong form shown.
Their visitors are also overachieving early in the season. but back to back road games is a tough ask for a Louisville team that had lost some key players on both sides of the ball between the 2020 and 2021 season. Head Coach Scott Satterfield may have been wondering how his future with the Cardinals would shape up as he sat on the hot seat before the season began, but he is Coaching a team that is also being very unfortunate with injuries and so the performances have to be respected.
This is another tough test for the Cardinals, but they have upset their last two opponents as the underdog and it has to be encouraging for Louisville. Malik Cunningham has not really reached his potential at Quarter Back for the Cardinals and the challenge for him this week is how confident he is with his throws rather than his legs.
Malik Cunningham is a dual-threat Quarter Back, but the Wake Forest Defensive Line has been stout against the run and they are looking to force opponents to become one-dimensional when it comes to their Offensive play-calling. The Cardinals Offensive Line has been a little inconsistent in the trenches and I do think Wake Forest can force Cunningham to try and beat them with his arm.
There are one or two holes in the Demon Deacons Secondary so Malik Cunningham can have a big game, but he is likely going to be under pressure from the pass rush. Add in the ball-hawking ability of the Demon Deacons and there is every reason to believe Wake Forest can make enough big plays on this side of the ball to give the unbeaten team a chance of making it five in a row to open the 2021 season.
It feels like the Wake Forest team are going to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball and I do think they are going to be able to establish the run in this one. The Demon Deacons have picked up some big gains on the ground already this season, but they could be further encouraged to run the ball at the Louisville Defensive Line considering they have given up 5.5 yards per carry this season.
Sam Hartman is then able to have success from the Quarter Back position and I do think he will have another decent outing for Wake Forest. You can't underestimate the Louisville Secondary, but if the Demon Deacons are running the ball as effectively as they can, they should be able to open up the Secondary for Hartman.
The Cardinals are 3-11-1 against the spread in their last fifteen as the road underdog and they are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven against Wake Forest, who will also be looking for revenge after losing to this opponent in 2020.
Wake Forest are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite, and they are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven against Divisional opponents. This is a big spread, but I do think the unbeaten Demon Deacons have the will in the trenches to take the game away from the Louisville Cardinals and cement their position as a big threat to upset the odds and win this Division.
Syracuse Orange @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: There is no doubt that this was going to be a transitional season for the Florida State Seminoles (0-4) in Mike Norvell's second season as Head Coach. They finished with a 3-6 record in 2020, but the Seminoles have been even worse than advertised and you have to serious worry about the Head Coach and his chances of avoiding being fired.
Three of the losses could be somewhat excused, but the Seminoles have also fallen to the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and that might not be the lowest point of the season either. The toughest portion of their schedule comes the other side of their Bye Week and it is imperative for Florida State to make the plays to win this game.
They will be hosting the Syracuse Orange (3-1) who may be benefiting from giving Head Coach Dino Babers an opportunity to improve a team that finished with a 1-10 record in 2020 in his fifth season in charge. A lot of people thought that record would end Babers time in Syracuse, but the Orange have earned a couple of upset wins already and that has seen the team triple the win number from last season and with the majority of the schedule still in front of them.
Opening up in the ACC should see the challenges intensify for Syracuse and the focus in Week 5 will be on Sean Turner who has been identified as a key piece of the Orange Offensive unit even before the season began. The Running Back has lived up to the hype in the first four games and Sean Turner will feel his Offensive Line can help him establish the run in this game.
You have to credit the Seminoles for largely being a strong team against the run, but this is going to be a tough battle for them in the trenches and it will be where Syracuse will be trying to win the game. Running the ball is the main focus, but it will also be key to opening up the Secondary where the Seminoles have made some very questionable decisions as they have tried to stop teams moving the ball up and down the field.
Florida State can have success on the Defensive side of the ball, but I am still surprised to see them set as such a big home favourite considering the limitations they have displayed when they have the ball in their hands. While we don't know how good the Syracuse Defensive unit can be without seeing them against better teams, they will believe they can at least restrict the Florida State Offense and that will make it very difficult for the home team to cover the spread here.
The Orange Defensive Line looked like a potential strength for the team before the season began and they have been incredibly stout up front. Making Florida State one-dimensional would be a massive win for Syracuse and would allow them to take advantage of the Seminoles Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection.
Syracuse have had an effective pass rush all season and they can give McKenzie Milton some questions at Quarter Back, even if Milton is massively experienced in College Football and also a story that most neutral fans can easily get behind. The lack of a real pass protection has hurt the McKenzie Milton Quarter Back numbers and this Orange Secondary have also thrived by the pressure being brought up front which is taking time away when players are throwing at them.
Slowing down the Florida State Offensive unit will give the Orange every chance of the upset, but they should certainly be good enough to keep this one close as long as Sean Turner can establish the run.
Playing Florida State has been very difficult for Syracuse in recent years, but this Seminoles team may be the worst one they have seen in Tallahassee in a long time. The Seminoles are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games as the home favourite, while Syracuse are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog.
You may expect a big reaction from a 0-4 Florida State team, but they are 1-7 against the spread following a loss under Mike Norvell and I simply don't think they are capable of blowing out this Divisional rival.
Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: There are some incredibly high hopes surrounding this Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) team, but an unbeaten start to the season has not really matched those expectations. No one would have realistically expected the Sooners to lose any of their first four games, but they have been struggling Offensively and it is actually the loaded Defensive unit which has proven to be the difference maker for them.
Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma Sooners have averaged at least 42 points per game in each of his four years as Head Coach here, but they are just shy of 39 points per game this season. Even that does not tell the full story with Oklahoma blowing out an overmatched FCS team, but only managing 39 points in total in their last two wins over the Nebraska Cornhuskers and West Virginia Mountaineers.
An expected push for a National Championship was based on the fact that the Sooners would now have a Defensive unit that could make the Offensive powerhouse they have been, but only the Defensive side of the ball has stood up so far. The Sooners are likely going to need that unit to have another big outing when taking on the Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) who are looking to bounce back from a defeat to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Week 4.
Kansas State will be encouraged by the fact that the Oklahoma Sooners have lost four times over the last two seasons and it is the Wildcats who have produced half of those defeats. However, it is hard to really be excited about a hat-trick of upsets in favour of the Wildcats considering they are without Skylar Thompson, the starting Quarter Back, and have been struggling on the Offensive side of the ball without him.
A committee at Quarter Back is far from ideal, and that is only made worse by the fact that the Kansas State Offensive Line are unlikely to have an opportunity to bully what has been a very stout Oklahoma Defensive Line. Clamping down on the run will put a lot of pressure on Will Howard and Jaren Lewis with their limited experience at this level.
The Wildcats have not been as confident throwing the ball without their starting Quarter Back, while struggles to run the ball is likely going to see the Oklahoma pass rush get the better of the Wildcats. It will likely mean a tough afternoon moving the ball with consistency and it may give the Sooners an opportunity to produce their best win of the season to underline their hopes of becoming a National Champion.
Spencer Rattler will be feeling the pressure and the Quarter Back has not really come close to matching the Heisman Trophy levels that many believed he would be operating at. The fans have gotten on his back at times with the lack of consistency making their patience wear thin, but the Sooners are still behind Rattler.
It may be on Spencer Rattler to win this game because the Kansas State Defensive Line has been very stout against the run and they may be able to contain the Sooners, even though the Offensive Line has been bullying in the trenches. There may be some pressure on Spencer Rattler if the Sooners are not able to establish the run in the manner they have been able to do in the first four weeks of the season.
However, there are issues in the Wildcats Secondary and this is a big chance for Spencer Rattler to show why so many believed he might even be the top Quarter Back to move into the NFL. Kansas State have been able to turn the ball over, but I do think the Wildcats could struggle Offensively which may give the visitors the chance to cover the spread.
The Sooners are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road favourite and I do think this spread would be much greater if Oklahoma had matched the expectations. Kansas State have long been an underdog that is worth giving plenty of respect, but they were beaten by double digits by the Oklahoma State Cowboys and I am looking for the Oklahoma Sooners to show off their National Championship aspirations with a big win.
Mississippi Rebels @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: This is a game that many would have been looking forward to after the meeting between these schools in Oxford in 2020, and the spread is much tighter this time around compared with the one we saw last year. The hype will not have slowed down after both the Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) and Mississippi Rebels (3-0) have begun this season unbeaten.
The winner of this game may feel that the SEC West is a Division they can go on and win, but neither team can afford to look beyond their opponent in Week 5. The Mississippi Rebels are coming in off a Bye Week and extra preparation time for Lance Kiffin as Head Coach can only be beneficial for the Rebels.
He will know what to expect from the Alabama Offensive unit, but the Mississippi Rebels have not played anyone of the level of the Crimson Tide. Bryce Young has underlined his status as one of the top Quarter Backs in College Football and I do think the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to challenge the Rebels Defensive unit way more than the other schools they have faced.
There was an expectation that the Mississippi Defensive unit would be much stronger in 2021 compared with 2020 with nine starters back on this side of the ball. The Defensive Line has been playing really well and the Rebels have been able to generate a strong pass rush, but beating on the Alabama Offensive Line is a huge challenge for any team in the nation.
Having Bryce Young at Quarter Back also means Alabama have a genuine threat against the Rebels Secondary which has given up some plays to weaker Quarter Backs faced so far this season. It is certainly an Alabama Offensive unit that will have learnt a lot from the film when they racked up 63 points against the Mississippi Rebels in 2020, although the Rebels managed to score 48 points of their own last season.
Matt Corral gave Alabama plenty to think about in that game last season and he has opened this season like a leading contender for the Heisman at the end of the season. Beating the Crimson Tide on the road would be an achievement that could almost wrap up that individual trophy for the Quarter Back, but this is one of the best Defensive units in the nation.
Lane Kiffin's experience with the Crimson Tide and his Offensive mind should give Matt Corral plenty of chances to be placed in positive positions on the field. However, the Quarter Back is not likely to have the same kind of support on the ground that he has experienced so far in 2021 and it could be a big test of the Rebels Offensive Line that has had one or two difficulties when it comes down to the pass protection.
Even then, Matt Corral is likely to have a decent showing and he can make the Rebels competitive and I think Mississippi are right to be excited about this opportunity. However, I also think this is a game that Nick Saban would have been circling before the season began and he is going to be pushing his team to put down a marker for the rest of the 2021 regular season.
The Rebels have been a very good road underdog to back, but Alabama are 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven games as the home favourite. Despite the huge performance from Mississippi in their game last season, they were still beaten by 15 points and I think Alabama will be much more prepared and with a stronger Defensive unit going into this season.
It won't be easy and the backdoor cover may be open for the Rebels right down to the end of the Fourth Quarter, but the Alabama Crimson Tide look powerful and they will be much more prepared for this test this time around. Covering won't be easy, but being at home should see Alabama have enough of an edge and I will back them to do that.
Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal Pick: A big road win at the Ohio State Buckeyes means the Oregon Ducks (4-0) are going to be very high up on the list of potential College Football PlayOff teams as long as they remain focused on games as they come. They are the favourites to win the Pac-12 and if they can do that unbeaten, Oregon are surely going to be playing in the final four of the 2021 season.
The next challenge in front of them is a game against the Stanford Cardinal (2-2) who have been very hard to read from week to week and who are coming in off a defeat to the UCLA Bruins. They have upset the USC Trojans already this season and that is the kind of result that has to give the Ducks plenty of reason to be focused on the task at hand.
They have earned fewer yards than their opponent in three of the four games played this season though and Stanford are going to find it very difficult against the Ducks, even though they are hosting this game. It does feel like the Cardinal do not match up Offensively with the Oregon Defensive unit and that is going to be an issue for them in Week 5.
It is clear that the Cardinal need to run the ball effectively if they are going to set up the rest of their Offensive game plan, but Stanford's Offensive Line will struggle against Oregon up front. The Ducks, on the other hand, have had issues defending the pass as teams have been forced to play keep up with them, but I am not convinced that Tanner McKee has the consistency to expose Oregon in this one.
The Quarter Back will likely have some pressure around him if the Cardinal are not able to establish the run and I think that will give Oregon an opportunity to put another statement road win in the books.
Moving the ball should be something that Oregon are able to do throughout this game and that is because they are likely to have a lot more balance with their Offensive play-calling. The key is the Oregon Offensive Line which has opened up some big holes up front and this Stanford Defensive Line is not of the level we have come to expect from this school.
The Ducks have been moving the ball on the ground really well and they should be able to get CJ Verdell going against a Stanford team that have allowed 5.4 yards per carry. Being set up in third and manageable spots is the key for the Oregon Ducks who can then use play-action to expose the Secondary and continue putting up some big Offensive numbers.
With little pass rush pressure, Oregon should be able to have a very strong day on the Offensive side of the ball and they can maintain their unbeaten start to the 2021 season.
The favourite has covered in five in a row in this series and I do think the Oregon Ducks can extend that run even with this big spread in mind.
You would think there will be plenty of motivation in the Stanford Cardinal locker room when they see how much they have been written off by the oddsmakers, but they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog. That includes dropping a game in that spot last week against the UCLA Bruins and Oregon should have enough here.
MY PICKS: Texas Longhorns - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)
Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)
Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)
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