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Friday 1 October 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 7 Picks 2021 (October 2-3)

The next international break is set to begin from Sunday evening through to Saturday 16th October and so it is a big weekend for managers who will want to ease any itchy fingers any owners or boards have over the 'sack' button.

To be fair the majority of the Premier League are likely to be sitting in comfortable seats at the moment, but the two week gap between games is a good chance for any reevaluations to take place. The most concerned may be Daniel Farke at Norwich City, but results can quickly change a mood around the club.

It is how I felt after my worst Fantasy Football GameWeek of the season, but I will discuss that below with two free transfers to be used this week (definitely need to use one or lose one).


Manchester United v Everton Pick: There was a real buzz at Old Trafford at the end of the Champions League win over Villarreal, but the cold light of day shed a different stance on the fixture.

Even the most positive of Manchester United fans would have to accept that they were very fortunate to beat Villarreal with the visitors creating multiple strong opportunities. They could have been out of sight by half time and Manchester United will need to improve massively on that performance with some huge games to come between the October and November international break.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can ill-afford to look too far ahead and has to make sure his team bounce back from the Premier League setback last Saturday. In the same time slot, Manchester United were beaten 0-1 by Aston Villa at Old Trafford and they will need to be better organised and more creative if they are going to earn the three points in this one.

They are facing an Everton team who have earned the same number of points as Manchester United in the Premier League so far this season, but Rafael Benitez' men have not faced too many of the big clubs in the Division. That doesn't take anything away from the 13 points produced, but Everton were beaten 3-0 at Aston Villa two weeks ago and they are potentially going to be without a number of key performers.

Jordan Pickford, Seamus Coleman, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin would all likely be involved in the first eleven, but all could be missing this weekend. As organised as Rafael Benitez will make the visitors, Everton are a team that have been learning what the new manager demands of them and that has seen them concede too many away goals.

Everton do have a good record at Old Trafford in recent years which has to be respected and Manchester United can struggle to break down teams that sit in. However, the ground should be feeling really positive after the win on Wednesday and the fans can inspire the squad to a big performance, one that can give Manchester United something to build upon later this month when bigger tests are to come.

I do think Everton could play their part, but Manchester United should be able to score the goals to secure the three points and end this week with momentum behind them.


Burnley v Norwich City Pick: There are still five teams in the Premier League who are waiting for their first win of the season, but two of those are facing one another on Saturday.

Both Burnley and Norwich City will have likely targeted a fixture like this one for important points in their bid to avoid the drop, but it is the former who have looked stronger this season.

Burnley may not have the points on the board they would have liked, but they have led in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games. Poor finishing and/or game management have let them down at times, but Burnley will feel the opening game is going to be vital in their bid to earn the victory on Saturday.

They have created chances and Burnley were unfortunate to lose to Arsenal in their last League fixture here. A similar level of performance would certainly have Sean Dyche and his players believing they can beat Norwich City, a team who have struggled at this level both in their relegation season in 2019/20 and in the early part of this campaign.

Norwich City have not played too badly at home, but have not been able to negotiate a tough fixture list. However, they have not been so strong away from home and that is where it looks like they could be vulnerable and a poor record at Turf Moor does not really inspire a lot of confidence.

Some believe Norwich City may end up with a new lowest point tally in the top flight since the Premier League was formed in 1992 and there hasn't been much encouragement for them. They have created some chances, but Norwich City have looked seriously vulnerable at the back and Burnley have shown enough going forward to believe they can take advantage of that.

The first goal is likely to be crucial and Burnley have managed to score the opener in 4 of their 6 Premier League games this season. It may just set them on their way to the three points and I think Burnley look likely to earn those this weekend.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: In recent seasons Southampton have matched up pretty well with Chelsea and it has seen them pick up plenty of positive results against this opponent. They may be encouraged by the fact that Chelsea have lost back to back fixtures, although Ralph Hasenhuttl has to also expect there will be a reaction from the hosts.

The early season results had been decent as far as Chelsea were concerned, but there has been this feeling that they have not been playing as well as they would have liked. Thomas Tuchel will certainly not be happy with some of the attacking displays Chelsea have produced and he will be hoping that Mason Mount can return to offer a creative edge.

No one will dispute the talent that Chelsea have and you have to believe they will begin to get things right, but they look plenty short considering the form of the last week.

Southampton have only lost 2 of their last 7 games at Stamford Bridge and they have already secured draws with the likes of Manchester United and Manchester City this season. Two weeks ago they showed plenty of resiliency to earn a point at the Etihad Stadium, but Southampton have given up some big chances in those draws and that should be encouragement for Chelsea.

It might be a tighter match than expected and Southampton are likely to pose problems from set pieces. However, the feeling is that they are going to want to defend deep and try and catch Chelsea on the counter-attack and it may mean The Saints struggle to create enough to win this game.

Chelsea are not likely to win without some drama on the day, but I do think they will do just enough to do that. They have not played well in their last two games, but The Blues should have enough defensive strength to set their team up for a victory, although it may be a tense atmosphere in West London right through to 5pm on Saturday afternoon.

Romelu Lukaku has had a couple of quiet games, but the big Belgian striker could make the difference for Chelsea. Another home clean sheet could be earned too as Chelsea secure three points that may see them top the Premier League table over the next two weeks.


Leeds United v Wolves Pick: The fans still very much believe that Marcelo Bielsa is going to turn things around for Leeds United who have had a hard time with injury early this season.

They are going to be without a couple of key players on Saturday, but defensive reinforcements could be arriving at the right time with Leeds United looking to secure a first League win of the season. Patrick Bamford is a miss, but I do think the style used by Leeds United means they can make up for that as long as they are responsible defensively.

Having a loud Elland Road behind them should be a boost for Leeds United who will have been sickened by the late goal conceded to West Ham United here last weekend. The visitors probably did enough to deserve the points, but Leeds United have played pretty well against Liverpool and The Hammers and they will feel this is a big step down from the level of those two clubs.

No disrespect will be intended for Watford, but this is a team who have struggled away from home and were very fortunate to earn a 1-1 home draw with Newcastle United last time out. They did crush Norwich City a couple of weeks ago, but Leeds United are a much stronger team than that and Watford have some huge defensive concerns that need to be resolved if they are going to consolidate back at this level.

Watford do have a very good recent record at Elland Road, but the last meeting was back in 2015 and Leeds United will feel this current squad is more than capable of turning the tide on that run. The first goal could be very important for either team, but I think Leeds United are creating enough to believe they can become the latest to expose the Watford back line and the home team can secure a vital victory that can ease any tension developing in the fan base.


Wolves v Newcastle United Pick: This is not as easy a game as the layers may think and that is largely down to the fact that Wolves continue to be a very difficult team to read.

They won last weekend at Southampton in a game where continued poor decisions in the final third may have been costly for what has been a wasteful team this season. Defensively Wolves looked sound, but Bruno Lage likes his teams to get forward and score goals and he is still trying to fit in the right players to his forward line to make sure they are more clinical in front of goal.

This certainly looks like a fixture in which Wolves will find spaces to exploit as Newcastle United continue to give opponents plenty of chances. It cost them two points in the 1-1 draw with Watford last week despite an improved performance, but I do think Newcastle United can be dangerous with the pace they have in the final third.

Last time out, Newcastle United created plenty of chances of their own against Watford, but Steve Bruce has not really seen his team produce consistently. They have matched up pretty well with Wolves if 5 straight 1-1 draws is anything to read into, but this is a more forward thinking Wolves and I think that could be important for them.

Failing to score a home League goal has to be a concern in backing Wolves, but I do think this is an opponent that will present chances to them. Add in the creativity that Wolves have shown and I do think they will have every chance to win this game and, like London buses, a home goal may be something the fans have waited so long for that two come at once.


Brighton v Arsenal Pick: The late Saturday afternoon kick off sees Brighton looking to prove they could potentially be a club challenging for European places at the end of this season.

A late Neal Maupay goal salvaged a point against Crystal Palace last Monday and Brighton are a team playing with confidence. Before that draw, Brighton had won 3 in a row in all competitions and they have looked pretty good at both ends of the field.

However, they are not nearly as dominant as they were on the expected goals stat as they were for much of last season and Brighton may see results just dip over the coming weeks and months. Playing at home will be a boost for a Brighton team that have lost 1 of their last 9 games here in all competitions, but Graham Potter's men are going up against a much improved Arsenal team.

Results have picked up over the last month and that has eased the pressure on Mikel Arteta with his Arsenal team winning 4 in a row in all competitions. The first half blitz of Tottenham Hotspur would have been massively enjoyed by the Arsenal fans, but they had been struggling to convert chances into goals prior to that victory.

It may be another tough outing for them in this game, but they showed resiliency in the 0-1 win at Burnley. Arsenal were perhaps a touch fortunate that day and they will need to be a lot better against a Brighton team that will play their football and look to take the game to their visitors.

Last season both games were tight and competitive and I think this one will be no different. 4 of the last 6 between Brighton and Arsenal have ended with fewer than three goals shared out and there is every chance this is going to be another fixture that trends in that direction.

The first goal could be key in deciding the winner, but I am not anticipating a lot of goals between these clubs on their current form. Both are decent going forward, but they are looking to be defensively responsible as much as possible and it could see the managers looking to make life difficult for the other.

One of these teams failing to score would not be a massive surprise and a relatively low-scoring fixture could develop.


Crystal Palace v Leicester City Pick: They may have created the chances to earn a result in Poland on Thursday night, but Leicester City were beaten 1-0 at Legia Warsaw and they have considerable work to do if they are to progress in the Europa League.

It underlines the poor start made to the 2021/22 season as Leicester City have struggled for consistency. They are conceding too many goals and Leicester City have not been as creative in the final third as they have been over the last couple of years under Brendan Rodgers and there has to be some concern about the opening two months of the season.

A big result on Sunday will at least give Leicester City some confidence before they return in two weeks time to take on Manchester United. They were able to rest some key players, but travelling back from Poland is not ideal for a team that has won 1 of their last 6 games in all competitions.

To compound the issue, Leicester City will be taking on a Crystal Palace team who have looked pretty good over the last month and who will have been resting and preparing for this fixture. Patrick Vieira's tactics have been much more eye-pleasing for the neutrals to enjoy and the Crystal Palace players have responded with some strong performances.

It can be argued that Crystal Palace have deserved more than they have gotten from those fixtures, but Vieira has to be encouraged by what he has seen. His team have created chances in their last couple of home games and they can expose what has been a soft underbelly at Leicester City who have yet to build a partnership at the back with injuries hurting them.

Crystal Palace have only lost 1 of their last 5 at home against Leicester City and I do think they are a surprising home underdog this weekend. On current form, Crystal Palace have every chance of earning the upset outright, but I certainly think they can avoid defeat as they look to keep the points ticking over against an opponent lacking confidence and travelling back from Europe.


Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa Pick: An easy home European game on Thursday evening will have been a good chance for Tottenham Hotspur to erase the performance at Arsenal from their minds, but the fans won't have easily forgotten.

It felt like Tottenham Hotspur had waved the white flag very early in the North London derby and they have lost all 3 Premier League games played since the September international break. Even more embarrassing is the fact that Nuno Espirito Santo is known for being defensively well-organised, but Spurs conceded three goals in each defeat to Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Arsenal.

There is a sense of tension around this ground and inside the Stadium and that means there is pressure on the manager to make sure Tottenham Hotspur start much better in this one. They did not play badly in the first half of the 0-3 home defeat to Chelsea, but Tottenham Hotspur are a team lacking confidence and there is a sense of vulnerability when teams get forward and take their chances to attack them.

Dean Smith is likely going to be setting up his Aston Villa team to test this Tottenham Hotspur backline if their performances at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford are anything to go by. They were well beaten at Chelsea in the Premier League, but Aston Villa could have gotten so much more out of that game with better finishing when the game was in the balance.

Last week it looked like poor finishing was going to be costly for Aston Villa again, but a late goal earned them three points at Manchester United. It was another forward thinking system that Dean Smith had Aston Villa playing and I do think they have every chance of matching the win they earned here in May.

This won't be easy if Tottenham Hotspur make a fast start and try and get on top of Aston Villa, but I do think the visitors are being under-rated. They were the better team at Stamford Bridge and the same could be said at Old Trafford, while this is a step down from that level despite the likes of Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane being in the home dressing room.

Beating Mura is a good, confidence boosting result, but Tottenham Hotspur are a little vulnerable. If Aston Villa can score first, I think the home fans could add to the pressure on the Spurs players and it may lead to another big away result for Dean Smith's progressive team.


West Ham United v Brentford Pick: You have to give a lot of credit to both David Moyes and Thomas Frank for not only the results that their respective sides have earned, but the kind of performances that West Ham United and Brentford have put together.

Both of these London clubs may feel there is a big season ahead of them to build on the foundation laid and I do think the fans will have a good game to look forward to.

West Ham United are still trying to find the balance between Europa League and Premier League commitments and I do wonder how they will handle the short turnaround between fixtures. There hasn't been much to worry about in the main, but it could be argued that West Ham United's worst performance of the season came against Manchester United days after Match Day 1 of the Europa League Group Stage.

They were comfortable winners over Rapid Vienna at home on Thursday, whereas the previous Premier League match came after an away game in Croatia, but it is something to consider.

The Hammers are creating chances and they have Michail Antonio in the form of his career leading the line. I certainly think they can challenge a well organised Brentford team who have struggled for goals despite the three they managed against Liverpool.

Brentford have been a breath of fresh air in the top flight and I do think this is a club that is progressing. The development under Thomas Frank makes them a team to be respected and I do think every club in the top flight will have a tough test when visiting the Brentford Community Stadium.

However, I do think home advantage could be key for West Ham United here and that may give them enough of an edge to earn the three points. Nothing will come easy against Brentford this season, but David Moyes' team have been pretty good at the back in recent games and, with Michail Antonio, there is always the quality in the final third which may end up making the difference for the East London club.


Liverpool v Manchester City Pick: The top two in the Premier League table going into this weekend will be meeting one another on Sunday afternoon and it is a big chance for Liverpool and Manchester City to lay down a marker for their title ambitions.

Both teams have made a strong start to the season, but there have been a couple of setbacks too. I do think that raises some questions as to the direction this fixture will take, but for the large part you would expect Liverpool and Manchester City to try and impose their game on the other.

They are heading into this weekend off the back of different Champions League away experiences during the week, but Manchester City may feel hard done by in losing at Paris Saint-Germain. The 0-1 win at Stamford Bridge last weekend shows what kind of level Manchester City are still capable of performing at and I think they are going to cause problems for Liverpool.

The key for Manchester City will be getting through what is likely to be an early Liverpool storm, but they have largely been defending pretty well. It took a couple of special goals to break them down in the French capital, while Manchester City were able to keep Chelsea at arm's distance for much of the fixture last weekend.

Liverpool will believe they can do better than Chelsea, while their own defensive performances have been decent enough. Virgil Van Dijk's return has been a huge boost for the home team and I think this is a fixture which is likely to go against the trend of recent Liverpool and Manchester City clashes at Anfield.

4 of the last 5 between these clubs at this ground have ended with at least three goals shared out, but I don't think either manager will want to give too much away here. Manchester City are still lacking goals, especially away from home, while Liverpool will find it tough to break down their visitor's defences.

A tight game is expected between two confident clubs and the feeling is that we will see fewer than three goals on the day with every chance of the points being shared.

MY PICKS: Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals
Burnley
Chelsea Win to Nil
Leeds United & Over 1.5 Goals
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals
Brighton-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Aston Villa + 0.5 Asian Handicap
West Ham United
Liverpool-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 7
That was a hard week to get through.

My decision to essentially pick Mason Greenwood over Diogo Jota looked a poor one, while Cristiano Ronaldo was not able to extend his run of scoring goals on his return to Manchester United and ended any hopes of my Captain salvaging the week.

Injuries to Luke Shaw and Trent Alexander-Arnold have put their participation in doubt for GameWeek 7, but those two players combined for a monster 1 point last time out.

And all in all, a sub-40 point score is an absolute disgrace, although overall I have pushed over the 400 point mark which is the only positive I can lean on after the horrible scenes.

I did manage to hold a Free Transfer through the week and have two for GameWeek 7, although the feeling is that I am going to hold off making both this week.

Initially the plan had been to bring in Romelu Lukaku and another Chelsea player ahead of what looks to be a very promising run of games for that team, but the disappointing last week means I am going to take a risk and have to deal with any fallout of not picking up the Belgian number nine.

Michail Antonio is too important to drop at the moment, while those injuries to key defenders means I am likely going to spend one transfer in that position of my team. I am actually fairly happy with the options I have in the squad, and might even have rolled through this week if that was going to give me another Free Transfer to hold.

There is no doubting the kind of asset Trent Alexander-Arnold can be in this game, but the Liverpool run over the next several weeks may not result in a lot of clean sheets. His attacking starts are obviously highly encouraging, but the groin injury has to be a concern and I do think I can drop him now and bring him back in a month/six weeks when other areas of my team can be downgraded.

An easy choice here looks to be doubling down on the Chelsea defence before their run of games that could easily see the team put a number of clean sheets on the board. It saves some considerable cash with the Alexander-Arnold move to someone like Antonio Rudiger, who looks the most set of the Chelsea back line with Cesar Azpilicueta, and the risk of two defenders from the same team could pay off.


As mentioned before, I had also planned to move Mason Greenwood from my team this week- I like the young Manchester United player and I think he is going to be a star for the club for years to come, but the last couple of weeks have been difficult for the 20 year old. With Jesse Lingard producing off the bench and with Marcus Rashford expected to return in two weeks time (possibly on the bench this weekend) and I do think Mason Greenwood is going to become a rotation casualty.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will want to look after Greenwood and it could be a time to take him out of the starting eleven with senior players in form and returning from injury. With the games coming up, I do think the decision to move Mason Greenwood and pick up Raphinha from Leeds United looks too much to ignore.

Raphinha is someone who looked underpriced in the game, but his form remains exceptionally high, while the attacker has four very good looking fixtures coming up from which he could truly benefit. He could pay immediate dividends in a home game with Watford and Raphinha should be well rested for what is to come next.


Using both Free Transfers without taking a hit will put some pressure on my team if the international break plays havoc as it can do, but I do like the shape it gives my squad and the huge amount of options I have in GameWeek 8 and further ahead into the fixtures coming up.

I don't want to be in a position where I have to take too many hits, but that's an option for GameWeek 8 which I will discuss in the next thread in two weeks time (if needed).

Hopefully I can have a much better week all around this time after the horrible showing in GameWeek 6.

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