Week 5 of the NFL is set to begin on Thursday Night Football with a huge NFC West Divisional game and I have a selection from that game which can be read below.
I will add to this thread before Sunday when the majority of the Week 5 games are to be played, including the first game in London for two years. Three winning weeks have gotten the 2021 season trending in a positive direction for the NFL Picks and I am looking to keep that going beginning with the Los Angeles Rams trip to the Seattle Seahawks.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The NFC West looked like a Division that could provide multiple PlayOff teams at the end of this season, but some of the recent results for the two teams without a winning record have knocked them down a couple of notches. At least the Seattle Seahawks (2-2) got back to winning ways after an awful first half in Week 4 and that snapped a two game losing run ahead of a big Thursday Night Football game.
They are facing a team off a loss when the Los Angeles Rams (3-1) come to town after a blowout defeat to the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals. You have to wonder how much of that was down to a lack of focus after a win over the Super Bowl Champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3, but the Rams need to show they can pick themselves up by bouncing back on the short week.
You have to feel the match up is a good one for them from an Offensive point of view and Matthew Stafford has been in fine form at Quarter Back since arriving in a trade from the Detroit Lions. He has thrown 11 Touchdown passes with just 2 Interceptions and Matthew Stafford is facing a Seattle Secondary which is so far removed from the days of the 'Legion of Boom'.
Massive amounts of yards have been given up through the air and Stafford has the Receiving corps to fully expose the issues Seattle have in the Secondary. Even Jamal Adams is banged up and Seattle are going to have trouble getting to the Quarter Back who has been well protected by the Los Angeles Offensive Line, which should mean Matthew Stafford is able to have a very strong game.
The Quarter Back will only be helped by the fact that the Seahawks Defensive Line has struggled to contain teams on the ground too so Matthew Stafford can lean on Darrell Henderson to keep the team in third and manageable spots. Opening up the play-action is only music to the ears of Head Coach Sean McVay and I do think the Los Angeles Rams are going to have considerable Offensive success throughout this game.
We didn't really see Russell Wilson at his very best last week in the road win at the San Francisco 49ers, but turnovers helped the Seahawks and their Quarter Back made enough plays to ensure they avoided losing for a third game in succession. He may have things slightly easier in this one with some of the holes that have been evident on the Los Angeles Rams Defensive unit, but much is going to depend on the Seattle Offensive Line.
They have not been able to protect Russell Wilson as they would have liked, but the Offensive Line has paved the way for some strong gains on the ground. Last week the Los Angeles Rams were hammered on the ground by the Arizona Cardinals and even the potential absence of Chris Carson should not limit Seattle's ability to do the same here.
However, they are going to be facing a very productive Los Angeles pass rush and any time the Seahawks are behind the chains, the feeling is that the Rams are going to be all over Russell Wilson who has not been able to scramble away from pressure previously. Last week Russell Wilson was being destroyed by the San Francisco pass rush in the first half and the likes of Aaron Donald are likely going to create havoc in the backfield in this one.
It will also mean Wilson is being forced to throw into his dangerous Secondary under pressure and that could see the Rams stall drives and perhaps even create turnovers to give their powerful Offensive unit the opportunity to win the game.
The Los Angeles Rams have a decent record against the spread off a defeat under Sean McVay and they have won six of the last eight games between these Divisional rivals. That includes a win here in the PlayOffs last season and with an improved Quarter Back, I do think the Rams can win as the road favourite.
Los Angeles are 12-3-1 in their last sixteen against the spread when losing by ten plus points at home, while they are also 10-4-1 against the spread in their last fifteen against Divisional rivals. The Seahawks are 2-9 against the spread in their last eleven following a win and they are also 3-7 against the spread in their last ten against NFC West opponents, spreads that look to back up the Rams being the right side here.
Some of that enthusiasm for the selection has to be countered by noting a couple of strong trends in favour of the Seattle Seahawks- they have won their last nine on Thursday Night Football and Pete Carroll has to be respected for the way he prepares his team on the short week. Russell Wilson also has a 6-2 record against the spread when set as the home underdog.
However, I think the Los Angeles Rams will have the time on the Offensive side of the ball that Seattle won't be able to offer Russell Wilson. At some point that is likely to make the difference and I think Matthew Stafford can lead the Rams to an important road win to avoid falling into a 0-2 Divisional hole.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: It has been a very difficult week for both of these AFC South teams and the Week 5 game between them is a very important one to try and turn some of the negative headlines into positive ones.
The feeling is that the Tennessee Titans (2-2) will be clearer in what they need to do as they look to bounce back from an Overtime defeat to the previously winless New York Jets. That could be a bad defeat in the weeks ahead as the Titans look to push back towards the PlayOffs, but they are still on top of a weak Division and are favoured to move to 2-0 within the Division on Sunday.
It has been a much more difficult week for the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) and not only for the fact they have lost their last nineteen NFL games. Head Coach Urban Meyer had a video going viral which has embarrassed his family and the organisation and the rumours are that he will not be in charge of Jacksonville for much longer.
The players have continued to offer their support to Meyer, but the Head Coach looks out of his depth in the pro ranks and it is unclear whether he has actually lost the respect of the dressing room. While College players may still put in a full shift, pro players can be known for 'downing tools' and even the additional time between the Week 4 game at the Cincinnati Bengals and this one may not be enough time to douse the flames in this part of Florida.
A trip to London is coming up for the Jaguars to further cloud the focus for this game, even against a Divisional rival, and the only real hope for the underdog is that they can keep this close on the spread by exposing what has been a vulnerable Tennessee Defensive unit. However, they will need to rely on Trevor Lawrence's arm to do so and the rookie Quarter Back is going through a difficult time with the losses mounting up.
It is not something that Lawrence has ever had to deal with before and he is not likely to be given a lot of support on the ground with the Tennessee Defensive Line proving to be pretty stout against the run. In saying that, Zach Wilson showed there are holes to exploit in the Secondary and Trevor Lawrence has shown enough to believe he will be able to do the same here against a banged up Tennessee team.
That is the main reason they will have a chance of the cover even if they are likely to lose again, but you do have to wonder if Jacksonville have been prepared enough to do that.
The Titans have had some issues Offensively which may actually be the biggest question when it comes to any potential cover for them in Week 5. A banged up Receiving corps may have a couple of big name players returning this week and that will be important for Ryan Tannehill who was able to lead the Titans down the field in the defeat to the New York Jets, but had to settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns early in the game.
It came back to bite the Titans in the defeat, but AJ Brown looks like he is trending towards a return and the Offensive Line should also be close to full strength. You have to credit the Jacksonville Jaguars for some improvements when it comes to clamping down on the run, but stopping Derrick Henry has been too much for them in recent meetings and I expect the big time Running Back to put the Titans in a position to be in front of the chains more often than not.
Ryan Tannehill may then have a touch more time to make his throws down the field having seen the Offensive Line struggle in pass protection. In short distance Downs, Tannehill could employ play-action to move the ball through the air, while there is not guarantee that the Jacksonville pass rush is good enough to exploit issues on the Tennessee Line anyway.
The Titans have a 6-2 record against the spread in the last eight between these Divisional rivals and they beat the Jaguars by 21 points on the road in 2020.
That is the only cover the Titans have had as a road favourite in their last seven in that spot, but this does feel like a good week to be rolling into Jacksonville to repeat that win and cover. With some key players back, Tennessee should have too much and they can bounce back from a bad loss to keep control of the AFC South with a strong win in this part of Florida.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers Pick: One of the more surprising teams after the first month of the NFL season have to be the Carolina Panthers (3-1) who have the same record as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the top of the NFC South. However, the Panthers have to bounce back from their first defeat of the 2021 season when they were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys, but they will be returning home to take on another NFC East team this week.
This time they are facing the Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) who have dropped a third game in a row and who have given up 40 plus points for a second game in a row. This was always going to be a work in progress for the Eagles in a first season under a new Head Coach and they are not being helped by injury on both sides of the ball.
Jalen Hurts has yet to really convince as the starting Quarter Back for the Eagles and, despite some positives, this is a big season for him to show he can lead the team going forward. He had some big time plays against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4, but the Carolina Panthers Defensive unit have been playing at a higher level than the Chiefs and it is going to be a big challenge for Hurts and the Eagles Offensive unit to keep the ball moving with any kind of consistency.
It does not help that the Eagles are playing behind a banged up Offensive Line which can have some difficulty in pass protection. Even with a mobile Quarter Back, the Eagles have not really protected Jalen Hurts as they would have liked and they will be without a couple of key Linemen this week too.
Handing the ball to Miles Sanders may be the best approach for the Eagles as the Offensive Line have been capable of opening holes for him, while the Panthers Defensive Line is much happier pinning their ears back to get after the Quarter Back than clamping down on the run. They have been able to hold teams to under 100 yards on average this season, but Carolina are giving up 4.5 yards per carry and while this is close it could be a good way for the Eagles to ease the pass rush and give their Quarter Back every chance to have some success.
That may work while they are in the game, but the Eagles have given up some big points in the last couple of weeks and have had to rely on Jalen Hurts throwing the ball. His personal numbers are quite good, but Hurts is going to be attacking a Carolina Secondary that has been bolstered by Stephon Gilmore and who had barely allowed over 150 passing yards on average for the season before his arrival.
It will be a challenge for the Eagles to move the ball consistently and so the pressure is on the Defensive unit to step up and make up for two poor performances. Injuries are not helping the Eagles though and even a Carolina Offensive unit without Christian McCaffrey will feel they can have success in this one.
Sam Darnold looks rejuvenated having arrived in a trade from the New York Jets, while Chuba Hubbard has at least been able to give the Panthers some running game without McCaffrey in the backfield. The Quarter Back is leading the League with rushing Touchdowns and the Panthers will likely have noted the issues the Eagles Defensive Line have had stopping the run ever since Brandon Graham was lost for the season.
Hammering Philadelphia on the ground will keep Sam Darnold in front of the chains and mean the Quarter Back does not have to push himself to make plays when throwing the ball. It will also mean having a touch more time to throw the ball against the Eagles Secondary which has allowed some big plays and Sam Darnold will likely be able to look after the ball considering the struggles Philadelphia have had to turn it over.
This does look a good spot for the Carolina Panthers to bounce back from the loss in Week 4 and they may also be playing an Eagles team that could be distracted with this being the meat in the last two Super Bowl Winning team sandwich. A Thursday Night Football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is likely to be a distraction, despite the three losses in a row, and I think the Carolina Panthers are perhaps still a little underestimated here.
The Panthers are 10-1-1 against the spread in their last twelve home games when playing off a straight up and against the spread defeat to a non-Division opponent. They have already covered as a home favourite against the New York Jets this season and have beaten the New Orleans Saints here and I do think they can expose the Philadelphia Defensive vulnerabilities.
Add in the fact that the Eagles are 1-11 against the spread in their last twelve coming in off a double digit defeat at home and are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine as a Conference underdog following a double digit defeat, and you can see the trends may favour the home team here too.
With the big Thursday Night Football game coming up, Philadelphia may come up short here.
Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There are not going to be too many times I want to go up against Aaron Rodgers, but him and the Green Bay Packers (3-1) look a vulnerable favourite in Week 5 despite the fact they have won three in a row. Wins over the Detroit Lions, San Francisco 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers have got the Packers back on track after the awful Week 1 defeat to the New Orleans Saints, but they have a Divisional game on deck and are facing a surprising opponent.
Joe Burrow showed he could be the franchise Quarter Back for the Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) before injury struck in 2020 in his rookie season and the big question was how healthy he would be coming into the 2021 season. He looks to have answered most of those, although Burrow will be the first to admit that the much improved Cincinnati Defensive unit has been just as important to their start which has taken them to the top of the impressive AFC North.
Bigger tests begin this week against the Green Bay Packers, but this might be an ideal time for the Bengals to host them. A myriad of injuries on both sides of the ball have hurt the Packers and they could be vulnerable to the Cincinnati passing game in this one.
Joe Mixon is likely going to have to sit out for the Cincinnati Bengals, which is a blow, but Joe Burrow can pick up the slack with the Green Bay Packers likely going in without their top Corner Back. Jaire Alexander may be out for multiple weeks and others are banged up on this side of the ball which should be music to the ears of the Cincinnati Offensive players.
Having additional preparation time has not always worked in favour of the Bengals, but it should mean they are healthier than they were in the Week 4 victory over the winless Jacksonville Jaguars. That can't be dismissed and the feeling is that the Bengals can find the balance they will need Offensively, even without Mixon in the backfield. The Packers have struggled to generate a consistent pass rush too so I would expect Joe Burrow to have time without Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith in the Green Bay line up and it should mean the Bengals can score enough points to earn the upset.
However, completing the upset will be down to the Defensive unit and whether they can do enough to rattle Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back for the Green Bay Packers. That is never an easy task, but Cincinnati have been playing well on this side of the ball and they may be able to affect the Green Bay Offensive play-calling, especially with the banged up Offensive Line the Bengals are going to be facing in this one.
There has been an effectiveness to the Cincinnati pass rush this season which should be able to get the better of the Green Bay Offensive Line and at least force Aaron Rodgers to make quicker decisions. The Quarter Back is more than capable of doing that and having considerable success doing that, but drives can be stalled with the pressure the Bengals can get up front and that could be very important in their bid to earn the home upset.
The key to the success may be making sure they keep a close eye on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon when it comes to running the ball and the Bengals Defensive Line has been strong against the run. If they can force the Packers to have to throw from third and long spots, the Bengals should be able to make enough plays against Aaron Rodgers to at least force Green Bay to have drives stalling and I think there is every chance the Bengals can earn the upset.
Cincinnati are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home underdog and the Packers do have an important Divisional game coming up against the Chicago Bears which may take away some of the focus from a non-Conference opponent. No one wants to lose a game at any time, but the Bengals may just take advantage of that and I do think the Bengals have the edge on the Defensive side of the ball which could set up the upset.
MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 3 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Giants + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
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