Another week is in the College Football books and there are more changes to the top of the Rankings, although none of the schools pushing for the College Football PlayOffs will feel their race has been run right now.
Two losses won't be good enough, so some teams are already in trouble and with little room for another error, but some of the leading teams are feeling good about themselves. One of the most disappointing teams have been the Clemson Tigers and I am not sure there is a fit replacement for them from the ACC to take what has been an annual place for the Tigers in the PlayOffs.
It means a door is open to another team, but I am not sure which of the other Power 5 Conferences will be offering their Champion into the PlayOff, at least not right now. The Cincinnati Bearcats may be the first from outside that group and Notre Dame that can earn their spot in the PlayOffs, but they cannot afford any slip and have to be very dominant.
Wins over Indiana and the Fighting Irish don't have the same kind of impact as they may have done before the season was played out, but the Bearcats deserve to be spoken about with the elite of College Football.
It is only Week 6 coming up so there are more twists and turns to come.
The Picks have had a run of three winning weeks in succession come to an end, and there is room for improvement. I am hoping the selections from this week can keep the positive momentum going.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: The SEC has long been setting the standards in College Football and the Conference may become even stronger as soon as the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns join the party. This season the Conference looks like it could be producing the two leading contenders to win the National Championship through the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs and those two teams are on a collision course in the SEC Championship Game in December.
There are a couple of other teams that will be looking to spoil that party, but those are not the Tennessee Volunteers (3-2) and the South Carolina Gamecocks (3-2). The Volunteers are 1-1 in the SEC this season, but the South Carolina Gamecocks have dropped both Conference games played and they are considered a big underdog in this game too.
Some of that may be down to the huge win Tennessee put together against the Missouri Tigers in Week 5 and another win would mean the Volunteers are just a couple more wins away from securing a spot in a Bowl Game. Both of these teams have first year Head Coaches and so it was largely seen as a transitional season for the Volunteers and Gamecocks, and both teams also had losing records in 2021, although the Gamecocks have surpassed the two wins last season and Tennessee have matched the three wins they had in 2020.
Momentum is with the Volunteers who look like they may match up with the South Carolina Defensive unit in a stronger way than the Gamecocks will do when dealing with Tennessee's Defensive unit.
That could make all the difference on the day between these Divisional rivals as they bid to finish as high up the SEC East standings as possible. South Carolina will at least point to the fact that the two defeats they have had this season have come against the Georgia Bulldogs and Kentucky Wildcats, two teams with 5-0 records overall, but much is going to depend on how they handle the strong Tennessee Offensive Line in determining whether they can win this one.
The Volunteers have been able to run the ball with considerable success throughout this season and, while there are bigger tests likely to come, they will feel they can bully a South Carolina Defensive Line which has struggled. Having a dual-threat Quarter Back should only help Tennessee, while they have been effective as a team when it comes to the ground game.
As the competition has increased in level, South Carolina have struggled to clamp down on the run and they have allowed 5.3 yards per carry across their last three games. With that in mind, it feels like the Volunteers are going to have some huge successes on the ground which should open the passing lanes for Hendon Hooker who has only thrown a single Interception so far this season.
Tennessee should be able to move the ball with considerable success and so it will be up to the Gamecocks to try and keep up on the scoreboard. That will be far from easy with the Volunteers playing some strong football on this side of the board and the key for the Tennessee Defensive unit has been an ability to make opponents one-dimensional.
At the start of the season, the feeling was that the Volunteers Defensive Line would be the power of this side of the ball and it has proven to be the case so far. They have been able to clamp down on the run and the South Carolina Gamecocks have struggled for consistency on the ground so the battle in the trenches could be key to the outcome of the game.
It will mean the pressure is on Luky Doty at Quarter Back who has 3 Touchdown passes with a single Interception since returning from an injury. His Offensive Line will be under pressure from the pass rush that Tennessee are likely to generate and Doty will be throwing into a Secondary that has been able to turn the ball over and who don't bite on throws to give up big plays.
The Volunteers have won the last two between these schools on a football field and I do think they are capable of winning and covering the spread here. The underdog has had considerable success in the series, but South Carolina are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games when given points.
Tennessee are a work in progress and it will take Josh Heupel some time to really turn the school around having had one winning season in the last four played. However, he has them on the right track and the Head Coach can lean on the Offensive and Defensive Line to display their strength and move the Volunteers in a position to cover this big mark.
Maryland Terrapins @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: There four teams in the Big Ten East Division who have 2-0 records in the Conference and one of those is the Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1). However, the Buckeyes are the only one of those four teams that has a loss on the record and the feeling is that they will need to run the table and win the Big Ten Championship Game if they are going to earn enough votes to return to the College Football PlayOff.
For some teams that pressure may be too much to deal with, but the Buckeyes feel they are still the team to beat in the Conference and they have won three in a row since the defeat to the Oregon Ducks. The Buckeyes look to be getting stronger and it may be a bad time for the Maryland Terrapins (4-1) to face Ohio State having been embarrassed at home by the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 5.
That was a huge step up from the first four opponents faced by the Terrapins and now they have to go on the road to take on an Ohio State team that can be fully focused with a Bye Week coming up.
Taulia Tagovailoa, Tua's younger brother, is coming off a really difficult outing and he is not going to be helped by the fact that Maryland have lost Dontay Demus for the season too. Last week the Quarter Back was Intercepted five times by the tough Hawkeyes Defensive unit and the challenge is no easier for Taulia Tagovailoa in Week 6.
There have been one or two holes in the Ohio State Secondary which have shown up as teams have been forced to throw to try and keep up on the scoreboard and that has to be a little encouraging to Tagovailoa and the Maryland Offensive unit. However, the problem is making sure there is a balance Offensively that keeps teams guessing when it comes to the play-calling, but that may be more difficult to maintain considering how strong the Buckeyes have been on the Defensive Line.
Stopping the run and making Tualia Tagovailoa have to throw the ball could present problems with the Buckeyes Secondary able to create big turnovers. The Ohio State pass rush has all been a big problem for opponents in recent games and having obvious passing Down and distance will make it very difficult for the Terrapins to sustain drives and punch in Touchdowns rather than having to settle for Field Goals or Punts.
Creating short fields through turnovers should also be something the Ohio State Buckeyes are aiming to do and they can then look to an improving Offense to underline their dominance.
CJ Stroud returned at Quarter Back in Week 5 and had a big game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and he will feel he can build on a five Touchdown performance. The Maryland Defensive Line has played well against the run, but the Buckeyes Offensive Line will look to bully them in the trenches and the feeling is that they will help Ohio State find a balance Offensively that will be missing for Maryland.
Their young Quarter Back will also be throwing into a Secondary that allowed Iowa to rack up almost 300 passing yards last week and the Hawkeyes are not as strong in this aspect of their Offense as Ohio State. I expect that to show up here against a Maryland Secondary that has allowed over 250 passing yards on average in their last three games.
The Terrapins have been able to generate pass rush pressure, which is important, but if the Buckeyes are able to run the ball as well as they can, I expect that pass rush to be eased. It should mean CJ Stroud has time to make his plays and I would fully support the quality of the Ohio State Receivers to win the day on the outside over the Maryland Defensive Backs.
I hate looking at a spread and being completely convinced the favourite is being underestimated, but I do feel that with the Ohio State Buckeyes. These schools have met six times since Maryland joined the Big Ten and it is the Buckeyes who have won all six by an average of 36 points per game, while the three wins at home have come by an average of 42 points per game.
Maryland should be better Offensively than they were in the Week 5 blowout against Iowa, but Ohio State will be looking to match that kind of effort with a Bye Week in front of them. The Buckeyes may not have been a great home favourite to back, but they have dominated this opponent and Maryland are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog.
Covering won't be easy, but Ohio State should be able to find a way to create extra possessions and that should see them have every chance of doing so. CJ Stroud should be able to pick up from where he left off in Week 5 and I think the Buckeyes will once again remind the rest of the Big Ten that they are still the team to beat.
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: Plenty of people would have had the popcorn ready in Week 5 when the Mississippi Rebels (3-1) visited the Alabama Crimson Tide, including Head Coach Lane Kiffin. However, a poor first half proved to be costly for the Rebels who lost their unbeaten record and who will now be focusing on improving on the five wins earned in Kiffin's first season in charge in Oxford.
The Rebels will be looking to bounce back against the Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1) who also saw their unbeaten run come to an end in Week 5. Like Mississippi, the Razorbacks were taking on one of the favourites to win the SEC Championship and they were blown out by the Georgia Bulldogs without getting on the scoreboard.
Even then, Head Coach Sam Pittman has to be really happy with what he has seen from the Razorbacks in his second season here. They have already surpassed the three wins earned in 2020 and the Head Coach will be targeting the most wins in a single season since 2016, while also seeing Arkansas return to a Bowl Game for the first time since then too.
Arkansas have already secured two upset wins in 2021, but playing in the SEC is likely going to see them needing to earn a couple more if they are going to earn the six wins needed to secure a Bowl spot. You would not rule out the Razorbacks from getting those wins, especially with the way they have played on both sides of the ball.
The key for the Razorbacks is to cement the ground game and use that to open up the rest of the playbook, but it won't be easy to do that against the Mississippi Rebels. Arkansas struggled to impose themselves against the Georgie Bulldogs and the Rebels have a Defensive unit which has shown signs of being much stronger than the one they ran out onto the field in 2020.
The Rebels did struggle to stop the Crimson Tide on the ground, but they will feel this is a more winnable match up for them in the trenches. Slowing down the Razorbacks by clamping down on the run will give Mississippi a real edge on this side of the ball, especially as it will allow them to unleash a pass rush that can get the better of the Razorbacks Offensive Line which has had some issues in pass protection.
I do think the Arkansas Razorbacks will have some success Offensively and certainly more than they had in Week 5 against the powerful Georgia Bulldogs, but at the same time the Defensive unit is going to have a tough time shutting down the Rebels when they have the ball. Mississippi had a hard time in Week 5, but they have been very productive on this side of the ball under Lane Kiffin and I expect them to bounce back.
While the Arkansas Razorbacks may struggle to impose the run, Mississippi's Offensive Line have been able to open some big holes up front and they are going up against a Defensive Line which has allowed 4.8 yards per carry on average in their last three games. Last season the Razorbacks did beat Mississippi, but they were crushed on the ground in the win and establishing the run here should open things up for Quarter Back Matt Corral.
Being unable to stop the run has meant the Arkansas Secondary has not really been giving up big numbers in recent games, but the schemes that Lane Kiffin can put together makes the Rebels dangerous. Matt Corral is also capable of making quick, short throws and then looking for his Receivers to make plays for him and I do think he will have enough time to read the field.
The Razorbacks have not been able to get the same kind of pass rush pressure as Mississippi and I do think the latter will have more success moving the ball. The Rebels have revenge on their mind after the loss to Arkansas last season and Lane Kiffin has a decent record when playing off a straight up loss too.
I like where Arkansas have been this season, but the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series between these teams. Mississippi are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite and I do think their superiority in the trenches on both sides of the ball may give the Rebels enough of an edge to win this one by around a Touchdown in Week 6 as they get back on track.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Florida Gators Pick: When a team is averaging a little over 31 points per game, it is very difficult to back them to cover a monster spread like the one that is in front of the Florida Gators (3-2). However, it says plenty about the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-3), even though the visitors are coming in off an important win.
The narrow win over the Connecticut Huskies last week will have given the Vanderbilt Commodores a shot in the arm, but the blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs isn't far from the memory bank. Giving up 62 points in a game in which they failed to score shows the level that needs to be made up in the SEC East, although the Commodores will also appreciate that the Bulldogs may be the stand out team in the entire Conference, let alone the Division.
This time they are facing the Florida Gators who are off a defeat to the Kentucky Wildcats which has ended their realistic hopes of making the SEC Championship Game. However, there is plenty of motivation for Dan Mullen and his team who won eight games in 2020 and this is a big chance for Florida to get the Offensive unit back on track.
With a huge spread like this one, Vanderbilt's Offensive output is likely to be the key in covering, but they have struggled for any kind of consistency on this side of the ball. That is underlined by Quarter Back Ken Seals who has thrown 5 Touchdown passes to go with 5 Interceptions, while the Offensive Line has not really been able to open holes for the run game to be established.
The Commodores had some success against the Stanford Cardinal, but they only produced 53 yards on the ground against the Georgia Bulldogs. Now they have to face a Florida Defensive Line which has given up just 4 yards per carry on average in their last three games and that despite facing the Alabama Crimson Tide in the run.
It is highly encouraging for the Gators and they should be able to restrict the Commodores and force Ken Seals to try and beat them through the air. It is an area that the Gators Secondary should be able to win with the struggles that Seals has had all season and I do think Florida can potentially offer up a couple of turnovers to give their Offensive unit the extra possessions they are likely going to need to cover a number such as this one.
This looks the perfect opportunity for Florida to get their entire Offensive unit back on track after scoring just 13 points in the defeat to the Kentucky Wildcats. They should have considerable balance on this side of the ball and it is almost impossible to believe Vanderbilt's Defensive Line will be able to slow down the Gators on the ground considering what we have seen this season.
Emory Jones has not been consistent enough at Quarter Back, but this is a big chance for him to showcase some of his skills with the team likely to be in third and short situations when he is being called on. Add in the play-action opportunities against a Commodores Secondary which has allowed almost 250 passing yards per game even with their struggles to stop the run, and I think Emory Jones can have a big game.
The Gators are going to be dealing with little pressure on this side of the ball and I do think Florida can put in a huge performance as they look to build momentum before another big SEC game against the LSU Tigers in Week 7.
This is a very big spread, but the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series and the Florida Gators beat Vanderbilt by 56 points the last time they hosted them. The Gators are 5-1 against the spread in the last six games following a straight up loss and they are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight at home.
Vanderbilt are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the road underdog and this is a number of points that means the road team have to be respected. However, Georgia were a 36 point road favourite and crushed the Commodores and I think the Florida Gators may take out their frustrations on what is the weakest team in the Conference.
Oregon State Beavers @ Washington State Cougars Pick: After the Oregon Ducks went into Columbus and came away with a win, they would have been a strong favourite to win the Pac-12 North and ultimately the Pac-12 Championship Game. However, the Ducks have fallen already within the Conference and that has opened the door for their rivals, the Oregon State Beavers (4-1).
The Beavers are the only team with an unbeaten record in the Pac-12 North and their 2-0 record in the Conference is built with wins over the USC Trojans and Washington Huskies. Oregon State may be on the road this week, but they are considered favourites to knock off the Washington State Cougars (2-3) who are now 1-2 in the Conference having beaten the California Golden Bears in Week 5.
It should be noted that the Golden Bears have had a miserable start to the 2021 season and this is a big test for the Cougars against a confident Oregon State team. Many would have tipped up the Beavers to be the lowest ranked of the teams in this Division, but Jonathan Smith has an extremely experienced team and they are one win away from matching the highest number of wins in a single season in his four years as Head Coach.
At this point, failing to snap the eight year wait for a Bowl appearance would be seen as a big disappointment, but the Oregon State Beavers cannot look too far ahead. This is not a team that has been at their best when it comes to pushing the passing game, but the Beavers will believe their Offensive Line is capable of setting everything up on this side of the ball.
The Beavers needed very little out of their Quarter Back throwing the ball last week, but over the course of the season they have been able to have some success with Chance Nolan. The Quarter Back did not begin the season as the starter, but he has almost 900 passing yards this season and Chance Nolan has thrown 9 Touchdown passes with just 3 Interceptions.
However, I have already mentioned that the main ambition for the Beavers is going to be running behind this Offensive Line and establishing the run to open up the passing lanes. They should have considerable successes doing that against this Washington State Defensive Line and it will give the Beavers every chance of being very balanced Offensively.
It should lead to a day where Oregon State are moving the ball consistently and putting pressure on the Cougars to keep up on the scoreboard. This is Nick Rolovich's second season as Head Coach of the Washington State team that had won at least six games in each of the last five seasons played under Mike Leach before a 1-3 2020 season.
Under their previous Head Coach, Washington State relied on the Air Raid Offense and that meant struggles to run the ball effectively. This is an area that Rolovich will want to improve, but the Cougars have been struggling to establish the run and they are now facing a Beavers Defensive Line which has clamped down on opponents to the tune of giving up just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground.
Jayden de Laura had a decent outing in the win over the Golden Bears, but the pressure will be on the Quarter Back from third and long spots if the Cougars are not able to get something going on the ground. He showed his quality in Week 5 and de Laura should be very comfortable in the system that Nick Rolovich wants to use with the Cougars, but the Oregon State Defensive unit have been a key to their early successes.
There are one or two holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Jayden de Laura, but the other issue with a spluttering run game is having time to throw. The Washington State Defensive Line has struggled in pass protection at times and they are going to be facing an Oregon State pass rush which has been highly effective at getting to the Quarter Back.
It could be the key to determining the outcome of the game and I like what we have seen from Oregon State so far this season. These two teams had completely different levels of success against the only common opponent they have faced, the USC Trojans, and I do think Oregon State can snap their poor record against the Cougars of late.
The Beavers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the favourite, while they are 10-1 against the spread in their last eleven on the road and I do think the balanced Offensive unit will be the difference for them on the day.
Washington State found a rhythm in the win over California in Week 5, but they have not covered in any of their last six at home and I think the Beavers edge them here to remain unbeaten in the Pac-12.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: A perfect start continues for the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) and they are the clear favourites to win the SEC West Division and once again return to the College Football PlayOff. At the start of the season this may have been seen as arguably their biggest obstacle before the SEC Championship Game, but the Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) were beaten by the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 5 and are really banged up ahead of this Week 6 game.
Back to back losses during which time the Aggies have managed to score just 32 points is not going to give anyone confidence that they can knock off the Alabama Crimson Tide, even with this game taking place at College Station.
Jimbo Fisher may be feeling some of the pressure having led Texas A&M to nine wins in 2020 and they have won at least eight games in each of his three seasons as the Head Coach here. They are likely going to need a couple of upsets if the Aggies are going to reach eight wins this season, but the fans are likely going to give Fisher the benefit of the doubt in 2021 when his Aggies team have been hurt on both sides of the ball.
With that in mind, it is very difficult to know how they are going to compete with the Alabama Crimson Tide who were comfortable winners over the Mississippi Rebels in Week 5. However, the closest game the Crimson Tide have played this season has been played in the only legitimate road game at the Florida Gators, which Alabama won by just 2 points, but the confidence is growing in Tuscaloosa and Nick Saban is surely going to be reminding his team about how close they came to a defeat the last time they played on the road.
It should mean a more focused Alabama team, while the injuries suffered by the Aggies in the Secondary should only open the door for Bryce Young to have a big game at Quarter Back. Texas A&M may feel their Defensive Line can at least make some plays up front to force Young to have to take to the air, but this Alabama Offensive Line loves bullying opponents and they will see this as an opportunity to show the rest of the SEC that the narrow road win at Florida was nothing more than a blip.
Pass rush pressure may slow down some of the Alabama drives, but you have to believe the Crimson Tide are still going to have considerable success Offensively to put the pressure on the Aggies when they have the ball in their hands.
Injuries here mean the Receiving corps is down a couple of key players, while the Aggies continue to play without starting Quarter Back Haynes King. His replacement, Zach Calzada has struggled with his composure behind the Aggies Offensive Line and even what has been a limited Alabama pass rush should be able to get to the Quarter Back and bring him down in the same manner and effectiveness as the Bulldogs did last week.
Running the ball against the Crimson Tide Defensive Line is a massive challenge and I do think Alabama will look to clamp down on the run and dare the back up Quarter Back to beat them. Unfortunately for Texas A&M, Zach Calzada has not really had the belief to make his throws with any consistency and I do think the Crimson Tide could create turnovers.
For me, the spread could easily have been above 20 points for this game- I like the Alabama Crimson Tide to cover here and they should be a comfortable winner for a ninth time in succession against the Aggies. The Crimson Tide are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in the series and they covered as 17 point favourites at College State a couple of years ago.
Alabama are 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen as the favourite, while they are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten against SEC opponents. This should be their best road performance of the season as the Crimson Tide take advantage of all of the injuries that Texas A&M are dealing with and I think they can cover a big number on the road.
MY PICKS: Tennessee Volunteers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 39 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Oregon State Beavers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 17.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)
Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)
Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)
Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)
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