I will be updating the season totals in the Week 10 College Football post, but you can read the selections from Week 9 below.
UCF Knights @ Temple Owls Pick: It has been three seasons since the UCF Knights (4-3) won the American Athletic Conference and it was during a period when they felt really hard done by that they were ignored for the College Football PlayOff. Injury has not really helped their cause in 2021 and there may be one or two envious glances from the fanbase at Conference rivals the Cincinnati Bearcats who could be invited into the PlayOff if they can complete an unbeaten season.
There is nothing the Knights can do about that now, but they are looking to produce a fifth winning season in succession and the remaining schedule certainly gives them an opportunity to do that. You would expect the Knights to be favoured in four of their remaining five games, which should mean another Bowl appearance as well as securing that winning record before playing the final game of the season.
The Knights are big favourites when they head to Philadelphia to take on the Temple Owls (3-4) who have lost two games in a row, but who have bounced back from a tough 2020 season when they finished 1-6. It will be a challenge for the Owls to earn the three wins they will need to become Bowl eligible, but the improvement from 2020 will impress Head Coach Rod Carey.
Losing the starting Quarter Back made things very difficult for the UCF Knights and it is entirely possible that Dillon Gabriel will not return this season, but the Knights match up pretty well Offensively with the Temple Defensive unit even without Gabriel behind Center. Last week the Owls were crushed on the ground and this UCF Offensive Line has shown they can open up some big holes up front, while the Owls have allowed an average of over 285 yards per game on the ground over their last three games.
Unsurprisingly, as Temple have looked to find a way to clamp down on the run, there have been issues stopping the pass in the Secondary when teams to decide to throw against them. This should mean the UCF Knights are able to move the ball with plenty of consistency in this game and I am not that surprised they are such big favourites, even on the road against a team with a decent enough record.
In Week 8, Temple could not stop the South Florida Bulls piling up huge numbers on the ground and it ultimately meant the Owls were also dominated in the time of possession. That put pressure on the Offensive unit to try and make full use of the limited time they had with the ball, but they are facing a UCF Defense which is coming off a hugely impressive performance.
An extra day of preparation as well as rest and recovery should boost the Knights Defensively and they match up well with this Temple Offensive unit. There have been one or two holes up front which has seen teams being able to establish the run against UCF, but Temple have not shown a consistency behind their Offensive Line and the pressure then shifts onto D'Wan Mathis at Quarter Back.
Time is something that Mathis cannot rely upon with the pressure the Knights continue to generate from the strong pass rush and it may be enough for UCF to pull clear of a wide mark.
The Knights are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in this Conference series and the road team has improved to 5-1 against the spread in the last six.
UCF are not a great favourite to back over the last couple of years, but Temple have a rough record as a home underdog and I do think the Knights can get behind the run and pull clear.
Washington State Cougars @ Arizona State Sun Devils Pick: Earlier this season it felt like the Pac-12 would have an opportunity to earn one of the spots in the College Football PlayOffs in December. The Oregon Ducks won at the Ohio State Buckeyes to be considered the favourite, but they have not really been able to back that up and teams have lined up behind them to potentially win the Pac-12 Championship.
The Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2) and the Washington State Cougars (4-4) are in different Divisions, but they have done enough to this point to believe they earn a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The home team are 3-1 in the Pac-12 South, but they were beaten by the Utah Utes a couple of weeks ago and that means Arizona State are going to need some help if they are going to finish above the Utes over the coming weeks.
All Herm Edwards can do is guide his team week to week and they are going to come out of the Bye as big favourites. The pandemic meant Arizona State finished 2-2 in 2020, but they have a winning record in the first two seasons under Edwards and the Sun Devils look like they are capable of finishing up with their best record under this Head Coach.
The USC Trojans are next on deck for the Sun Devils, a huge game within the Division, but they can't afford to overlook the Washington State Cougars who have a 3-2 record in the Pac-12 and who are just a game behind in the Pac-12 North. This was supposed to be a season when Head Coach Nick Rolovich would take the team forward after a 1-3 record, but off field issues, namely refusing to be vaccinated, has meant Rolovich and a number of his staff have been fired.
There had been rumours that Nick Rolovich was going to refuse to take the vaccine and the decision by the State to mandate compulsory vaccination was always going to end one way. The team were right behind the Head Coach until the end and had won three Pac-12 games in a row, but the players showed they refuse to allow off field distractions to dictate how the remainder of the season goes.
Washington State battled hard in their narrow loss to the BYU Cougars in Week 8 and they will be heading into a Bye before the big game with Oregon in a couple of weeks time. That may be the best time for the team to reset after the drama off the field, but Washington State will feel they have control of their own destiny in the Pac-12 and that means trying to keep up with the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers in the Division.
There is a touch more balance in the Washington State Offensive game-plan than we were used to seeing in Mike Leach's Air Raid time here, but the pass is likely going to be a big part of their plan this week. The Cougars have been a little inconsistent running the ball behind the Offensive Line and the Arizona State Sun Devils have been pretty strong up front, but over the last three games the Secondary have given up some big plays.
Some key players could be returning for the Sun Devils in Defensive Back positions, but Jayden de Laura has shown enough at Quarter Back to believe he can find some holes to exploit. The Cougars are averaging over 300 passing yards over their last three games and the Washington State Offensive Line have been strong in pass protection to believe they can give their young Quarter Back some time.
Balance is something that Herm Edwards can rely upon when the Arizona State Sun Devils have the ball and I do think they are going to have some joy establishing the run, which will set up the entire Offense. The Sun Devils have twenty-two rushing Touchdowns this season and they have a number of players who can come in and make some big plays on the ground, while the Sun Devils should be able to get going against the Cougars Defensive Line which has allowed 4.9 yards per carry in recent games.
Running the ball will just ease any pressure on Jayden Daniels who has faced some pass rush pressure with the Sun Devils looking more effective in run blocking than pass protection. The Cougars have actually played the pass pretty well, but being unable to clamp down on the run should mean Jayden Daniels makes some big throws and it should give the home team a real opportunity to win the game.
Even then, I do think this is a very big spread with the Arizona State players having a hugely important Divisional game coming up next. When these teams last met here two years ago, the Sun Devils earned a narrow win and I do think the Washington State Cougars have been given a lot of points this time around.
The Cougars have covered in their last four as the road underdog, while Arizona State are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the home favourite. The Bye will have given the Sun Devils a chance to get healthier, but the spot is not an ideal one and this is a lot of points for a potentially distracted team to cover.
TCU Horned Frogs @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: The Big 12 is going to have a different feel when the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners move to the SEC, but even without those two powerhouse schools, these two teams would be way off the Big 12 Championship Game race.
Only the Kansas Jayhawks are below the Kansas State Wildcats (4-3) and TCU Horned Frogs (3-4) in the Conference and both of these teams have dropped three of four Conference games played. The Horned Frogs are feeling the pressure as they look to avoid a losing season for the third time in six seasons and they are clearly underachieving compared with pre-season expectations, while the Kansas State Wildcats have perhaps surprised as they look to bounce back from the 4-6 record produced in the 2020 season.
Pre-season expectations don't mean much once you get into Week 9 of the regular season and the feeling is that Kansas State are in a much stronger position if they are going to become Bowl eligible. They are likely to be favoured in each of their next three games and need two more wins to reach the six win mark, while the TCU Horned Frogs will likely need to find at least one upset to have an opportunity to play after the regular season is concluded at the end of November.
Injuries have been a factor working against both of these teams, but neither Head Coach is looking for excuses and the players still have some motivation behind them to produce a strong end to the season. That will be encouraging and I do think the Horned Frogs could make this a competitive game as a small road underdog.
Running the ball is always important to teams in College and the in the NFL and this is an area where TCU have continued to have success. Earlier in the season you may have wondered if they could really establish the run in the manner they have become accustomed to against this Kansas State Defensive Line, but the Wildcats have begun to wear down through a heavy part of their schedule and that should aid their visitors.
The Bye Week will have helped in Week 6, but the Wildcats have still been allowing their last three opponents to average 170 yards per game on the ground and those have been given up at 4.9 yards per clip. Those are numbers that will be something that TCU will be looking to exploit having been able to move the chains on the ground all season and I think it is important for Max Duggan at Quarter Back, who made two costly mistakes in the defeat to West Virginia.
Max Duggan should have time in the pocket with the team likely to be in third and manageable spots, but he has not really developed in the manner the Horned Frogs would have hoped. The Wildcats Secondary is one that can step up and make some big plays, but Duggan should be a little stronger than he was in Week 8 and that can put TCU in a position to move the ball and punch in some Touchdowns.
A healthier Kansas State team will be looking for a much stronger start than they made against the Texas Tech Red Raiders last time out and the momentum is with them after the second half rally produced the narrowest of wins. Skylar Thompson will be looking for a strong end to the season as he rebuilds his full health and he should be well backed by the Kansas State rushing Offense against a Horned Frogs team that have underperformed significantly up front.
Under Gary Patterson, the Horned Frogs Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run, but they are giving up 212 yards per game at 5.5 yards per carry this season which are going to be their worst numbers by a huge margin since 2016. Even in recent games, there has been little sign of improvement and the real question has to be whether the Wildcats can exploit those issues having struggled to run the ball as the level of opponent has improved.
Head Coach Chris Klieman has made it clear his team need to be able to run the ball if they are going to find the balance they need and in this game it might be most important of all. Skylar Thompson should be able to have success against the Horned Frogs Secondary, which hasn't been any better than the Defensive Line in stopping the pass as the latter are the run, but becoming one-dimensional is never a good option for any Offensive unit.
I do think the Wildcats will be able to move the ball with considerable success, but TCU have the Offense that matches up well with them and that could lead to a game where there is very little between them. The last three games have been decided by a combined 15 points between these teams, but TCU have won the yardage battle in the last two despite being upset both times by the Wildcats.
This time it is the Horned Frogs who are the underdog and I think that may give them some fire in the belly to try and bounce back from the loss to West Virginia in Week 8. TCU might not be the best road underdog to back, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a straight up loss and they should be able to keep this game very competitive.
Kansas State are 3-4 against the spread as the home favourite under their current Head Coach and they have simply not used to being considered a favourite in Big 12 play. That can add to the pressure of expectation and I think the Horned Frogs can be backed with the points here.
The Wildcats are 2-11-1 against the spread in their last fourteen games set as the favourite of fewer than 20 points and I do think having a little more than a Field Goal worth of points makes the road team appealing in this game.
MY PICKS: UCF Knights - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars + 16 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Vanderbilt Commodores + 17 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
NC State Wolfpack - 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Boston College Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 3 Points @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Virginia Cavaliers + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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