We are not too far away from the first international break in the 2019 calendar year as the Euro 2020 Qualifiers begin in their new slot just fifteen months before that tournament gets underway.
Before that break in the middle of March we are going to find out the final eight teams that will compete in both the Champions League and Europa League competitions. The Second Legs of the Last 16 Champions League ties begin three weeks after the First Legs were completed and there are a number of ties that look settled already.
Both Tottenham Hotspur and Paris Saint-Germain have big leads going into the four Last 16 Second Legs to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, while Real Madrid won in Amsterdam but looked to have entered a crisis since then.
The best of the ties this week could be seeing how Roma get on defending the narrow lead in Porto, but those are two of the weaker teams left in the Champions League and I think the winner is going to be significantly overmatched in the Quarter Final regardless of who they are paired with.
This week we also have the First Legs of the Last 16 ties in the Europa League as teams chase a second entry point into the Champions League. The competition looks to be developing nicely with some decent teams involved and the majority of the favourites should be able to work their way through the ties they have been given.
Arsenal and Chelsea will be really keen to make sure they have a second chance into the Champions League which they are balancing with a strong effort to finish in the top four in the Premier League.
Borussia Dortmund v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of people in England have been looking at the Tottenham Hotspur stumbles in the last two weeks and been left to shake their head at a 'Spursy' turn of events for the club.
They have fallen off the Premier League title race thanks to back to back defeats at Burnley and Chelsea, while the home draw in the North London derby may have the fans looking over their shoulders rather than at trying to scale the top of the mountain in the Premier League.
It would be the most 'Spursy' of things if Tottenham Hotspur were to blow a 3-0 lead in the Champions League Last 16 on Tuesday and fail to make it through to the Quarter Final of the competition for the first time under Mauricio Pochettino. Even the defeat to Juventus as the favourites in the Last 16 Second Leg last season would be considered a far better loss than this one if Tottenham Hotspur were to go out.
While some would not be surprised if it happened, I have to admit I would be because they are facing an opponent going through arguably an even stickier patch than themselves.
Borussia Dortmund are not exactly firing on all cylinders with a single win from their last 7 in all competitions and in that time they have exited the German Cup, blown a big lead in the Bundesliga and capitulated in the final ten minutes at Wembley Stadium in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 tie.
At home Borussia Dortmund continue to score goals, but defensively they have looked a mess and it is hard to think they can earn a fourth consecutive clean sheet in the Champions League having finished with one in all of their Group Stage matches. That inability may prove to be the fatal blow on the day to their chances of progressing, but Dortmund have been showing a real attacking intent and face a Tottenham Hotspur team that have conceded twice in 4 away games in a row and lost every one of those.
In the Group Stage Borussia Dortmund also beat Monaco 3-0 and Atletico Madrid 4-0 so the fans will be fully behind their team to win this Second Leg and I think they can do that at odds against.
My only concern for Dortmund winning this Leg is that they may end up chasing the tie on aggregate late into the second half and could leave themselves vulnerable to a Tottenham Hotspur counter attack. If it is a narrow lead going into the final twenty minutes I would be worried about the backdoor recovery from Tottenham Hotspur if they are able to exploit the spaces that Dortmund would have to leave behind.
You've got to remember if Tottenham Hotspur score one, Borussia Dortmund will have to score five to progress and it could play into the way the game ends.
However on current form I have to think Spurs will just want to get through by hook or by crook and it may mean a nervy night in Germany. I dread to think how the fans and players will be feeling if they fall 2-0 behind, but at some point I think Tottenham Hotspur will get the goal to effectively end the tie although Borussia Dortmund may be able to record a win for the home fans on the evening.
Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: Losing the home tie is a big blow for the team that was considered a big underdog when the draw was made for the Champions League Second Round, but Ajax will feel they showed enough in the First Leg to believe they can cause problems for Real Madrid here.
They might be getting Real Madrid at a vulnerable time too as the home team have lost 3 in a row in front of their fans who are clearly very unhappy with how things are going in the Spanish capital. Back to back home defeats to Barcelona have angered and embarrassed the club and Real Madrid have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 games here which will give Ajax some confidence.
This young Ajax team have been able to go to places like Lisbon and Munich and expressed themselves very well and they clearly have goals in the side. The chances created in the First Leg will have encouraged the Ajax players, while the absence of Sergio Ramos for Real Madrid makes an already shaky defence that much weaker.
Keeping Real Madrid out at the other end may be the biggest challenge in front of Ajax who had not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games in all competitions before the stunning 0-3 win in Rotterdam against Feyenoord last week. Ajax have also conceded in 12 of their last 13 away Champions League games so their best bet to win here is to try and outscore Real Madrid and see if away goals can earn their place in the Quarter Final in huge upset fashion.
It is a big ask of Ajax who could be picked off by Real Madrid if they begin chasing the game, but they will be confident against a home team that will know the fans are ready to get on their backs if they are not performing. Real Madrid don't lose too many games at home in the Champions League though and I think Ajax may ultimately come up a little short not for the lack of trying.
The attacking intentions of the visitors should at least contribute to a good game of football and I do think we will see goals on Tuesday. Backing Real Madrid at short odds in a fixture they don't have to win to go through seems a poor decision, but they have got goals in the side while they are conceding plenty too.
It wouldn't surprise me if Real Madrid hit Ajax with a sucker punch late on to win this game, but I expect Ajax to play their part here. They have scored at Benfica and Bayern Munich in the Group Stage and Real Madrid are missing leader Sergio Ramos so I do think the visitors will get at least one, while also fancying Real Madrid to score on the day.
I can see a situation where a late goal contributes to this fixture producing at least four goals on the night and that is going to be my selection from this Second Leg. A 3-1 Real Madrid win or a 2-2 draw really wouldn't shock me here and I will back goals to be shared out by two teams who may be happier going forward than defending on the night.
Paris Saint-Germain v Manchester United Pick: In the last couple of years we have seen some astonishing comebacks in the European Knock Out Rounds either in the Qualifiers or the final stages of those competitions.
There have been some memorable comebacks in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds too and the most notable may be the Paris Saint-Germain capitulation at the Nou Camp when they somehow blew a four game lead from the First Leg.
That was only two years ago, but the importance of that fixture was that Barcelona were at home in the Second Leg. Those big comebacks have been made by teams that have hosted the Second Leg and we have yet to see a team win by a wide margin away from home and blow the tie in front of their home fans.
Paris Saint-Germain did make history in the defeat to Barcelona by becoming the first team in European Cup history to lose a tie in which they had a four goal lead after the First Leg. That is the kind of thing that will still worry the fans despite the big win at Old Trafford as they look to avoid making history for a negative reason for the second time in three seasons.
However this time they are not facing a really good team like Barcelona and an injury hit Manchester United don't look to have the quality they need to overturn the events from the First Leg. Paul Pogba's suspension adds to the issues and a likely midfield of Scott McTominay, Fred and Andreas Pereira won't be worrying the Paris Saint-Germain players too much, if at all.
It is up to Paris Saint-Germain to make sure Manchester United are offered no encouragement though and they have all the advantages in this one as far as I am concerned. Home form has been good in recent weeks and the return of Thomas Meunier and potentially Edinson Cavani only makes them stronger than the First Leg when I thought they were well worth their win on the day.
Manchester United will employ the counter attack which has seen them win 8 away games in a row in all competitions and score two or more in 6 of those wins, but the absences are just racking up. Paul Pogba's loss will be huge in the midfield and I think Paris Saint-Germain will control the ball and ultimately put enough quality together in the final third to win this game and potentially make a statement to the rest of the contenders in the Champions League.
Paris Saint-Germain beat Liverpool comfortably in the Group Stage here under a lot of pressure and they have won big games against some of the top names in European Football in the last couple of years here.
I would love to be very much wrong with my pick for this fixture, but I can't help seeing anything but another comfortable win for Paris Saint-Germain who can do it by two or more goals on the night.
Porto v Roma Pick: The tie that stands out the most in the Champions League this week as being the one most on a knife edge clearly comes from Porto where the home team will host Roma 1-2 down from the First Leg. The late away goal earned by Porto could be critical to the outcome of the Last 16 tie where the winner is going to be arguably the most sought after opponent from those left in the draw.
That is no disrespect to Porto or Roma, but neither club looks capable of going on and winning the Champions League and there are going to be some huge names left in the Quarter Final stage.
Neither will actually care about that ahead of the Second Leg of this Last 16 tie though and I think it is a very close one to call. Porto have won 5 of their last 6 Champions League games at home including all 3 in the Group Stage, while Roma have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the competition including all 3 in the Knock Out Rounds last season.
That may indicate it is not as close as I am suggesting, but Roma are a team that have scored plenty of away goals of late and I do think they can erase the away goal conceded in the Italian capital last month. With that in mind Porto will have to score at least twice to force Extra Time, but they could also be vulnerable to the counter attack and I do think Roma can cause plenty of issues for the home team to deal with.
The return of Moussa Marega is very important for Porto considering he scored five goals in the Group Stage of the Champions League and this really feels like it could be a game filled with goals. No matter who scores first it is going to potentially really open up this Second Leg and I think both teams are capable of scoring at least once.
Picking a winner on the night isn't easy even if I am leaning towards the home team to do it, but my overriding feeling is that at least three goals will be shared out on the night.
10 of the last 11 Roma Champions League games have seen at least three goals shared out, while it has happened in 8 of their last 9 on their travels in this competition. At the same time the last 5 Porto Champions League games have featured three or more goals, and 6 of their last 7 at home in the competition have done the same.
The situation from the First Leg leaves this potentially becoming an open Second Leg too and both clubs have shown they can score goals as well as being vulnerable at the back and seeing three or more goals looks the most likely outcome.
Rennes v Arsenal Pick: The draw for the Europa League gave both London based clubs a First Leg at home and the decision was made by UEFA that they had to switch one of the ties around.
That tie was the one between Rennes and Arsenal who will now meet in the First Leg in France rather than in North London.
It might be ideal for Rennes who have been given a weekend off by the French FA to prepare for this fixture. They will know the Home Leg is very important to give them a chance to progress to the Quarter Final despite beating Real Betis 1-3 in Spain in the last Round, and they could be facing Arsenal at a very good time.
The Gunners are in decent form, but this game is the meat in a Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United sandwich for them and Arsenal are firmly in the top four race to believe those fixtures are very important to them. With a Home Leg to come next week, Arsenal might have a much changed team starting this fixture for them and it could give Rennes an opportunity for a surprise result.
It certainly makes Arsenal feel a short price at close to odds on to win here with that Manchester United game likely to in their minds. Rennes have been good at home this season too and they score enough goals to make me believe a vulnerable Arsenal backline is going to be tested here.
Arsenal have good attacking players though and Rennes have conceded in 3 of their 4 home games in the Europa League. It should mean the visitors have their chances here too and I think the best play may be backing at least three goals to be shared out.
Rennes have scored two or more goals in 5 straight at home in all competitions, but have only kept a couple of clean sheets in that time. With their best chances of earning a place coming from having a First Leg lead I expect Rennes to take some risks and I feel the game could come together to be one of the entertaining ones from the First Legs taking place.
Sevilla v Slavia Prague Pick: There is no doubt that Sevilla have fallen off a cliff when it comes to their form in Spain, but this is a club that has a real affiliation with the Europa League and the two wins over Lazio in the Last 32 underlines their status as one of the favourites to win the competition this season too.
Five Europa League wins in thirteen years is an incredible achievement and it is beginning to look like Sevilla's best route back into the Champions League. Sevilla have been dominant at home in Europe, especially at the Europa League level, and they will believe that form can take them through to the Final in Baku in May.
In this season's competition Sevilla have won all 7 home Europa League games and 6 of those have come by at least a two goal margin. In recent weeks they have won 3 of their last 5 at home in all competitions and Sevilla have scored at least twice in each of those games which suggests they could have too much firepower for their visitors on Thursday.
Slavia Prague have to be respected as the leaders of the Czech top flight and after working their way through to the Last 16. This is their best run in any European competition for a number of years, but I can't ignore the fact that Slavia Prague have had their issues away from home in Europe already this season.
In fact Slavia Prague have lost 3 of their 5 away European ties in the 2018/19 season and 2 of the defeats suffered have come by two goal margins.
I do think that is the most likely outcome of the First Leg which will put Sevilla in control of the tie and I will back the Spaniards to cover the Asian Handicap.
Zenit St Petersburg v Villarreal Pick: Balancing out European and domestic competitions can be a real challenge for clubs who have big goals to achieve in both.
In this situation I do feel that both Zenit St Petersburg and Villarreal may actually feel the Europa League could be a long-term distraction with their main ambitions being successes domestically.
For Zenit St Petersburg the final 12 games in the Russian Premier League will be all about trying to win a first League title since 2015. They are leading the way at the moment and that is their favoured avenue back into the Champions League.
It is a slightly different story for Villarreal who are battling to avoid relegation in the Spanish Primera Division and winning the Europa League won't make up for playing outside the top flight next season.
With that said I do think both clubs will be motivated to reach the Quarter Final and they have both been playing some of their better football in the Europa League. Zenit St Petersburg have a really strong record here in the last few years in Europe and they go into this one having won all 11 of their last 12 home games in the Europa League including all 6 played here this season.
Villarreal have yet to be beaten in the Europa League despite their poor domestic form and they did win at Sporting Lisbon last month. However Villarreal had to ride their luck to earn a 3-3 draw in Spartak Moscow in the Group Stage and this may feel like another step up for them.
I imagine it is going to be a tight First Leg and I do think all will be to play for when they meet again in Spain next week. However I have to give the slight edge to a Zenit St Petersburg team who have been very strong at home all season and who are facing a Villarreal side that have to be lacking some confidence despite forging a path through to the Last 16.
You can find odds against quotes backing the Russian leaders to have a lead to take into the Second Leg and that looks the way to go.
Chelsea v Club Brugge Pick: We are not at the stage of the season when clubs in Western Europe begin to prioritise the Europa League over domestic commitments, but the carrot of a place in the Champions League Group Stage for the winner of the competition has certainly made it a more appealing tournament.
For the likes of Chelsea they will want to keep two avenues back into the Champions League open for as long as possible and this looks to be a tie they can win, although the Second Leg will be problematic in terms of weather conditions and travel.
It makes the First Leg that much more important for Chelsea who will want to take a healthy lead to the Ukraine and have every chance of doing that. For all the negative stories around Stamford Bridge there is still a real belief that Chelsea can be very good at home and 7 wins from 8 games in all competitions underlines that point.
Chelsea have scored plenty of goals in those games and they have also won all 4 Europa League games at Stamford Bridge despite the rotation made to the starting eleven. The side have scored at least three goals in their last 3 here in the Europa League and I do think Maurizio Sarri will be looking to take a strong advantage to Kiev when he can afford to give a couple of key players more of a rest.
Dynamo Kiev beat Olympiacos in the Last 32 and they are not looking to make up the numbers but instead will want to replicate what other Eastern European clubs have done in the recent past in the Europa League. The last few years have seen Spanish clubs dominate, but Zenit St Petersburg and Shakhtar Donetsk have won the Europa League in the last twelve years and the chance to get back into the Champions League Group Stage should be a real inspiration for the visitors.
They have come out of their Winter Break in good form and Dynamo Kiev have lost just 1 of their 6 away European ties this season. Dynamo Kiev have scored in each of those away ties so they could be dangerous for Chelsea on Thursday, but my feeling is that a strong team is going to be selected by the home club and they can head into the Second Leg with a decent lead.
With the goals being scored at home, Chelsea can win and cover the Asian Handicap in this one, although I would not be surprised if Dynamo Kiev give themselves some hope by producing an away goal.
MY PICKS: Borussia Dortmund @ 2.05 Bet Fred
Real Madrid-Ajax Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Rennes-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor
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