It was a mixed day for the Tennis Picks to open the Indian Wells tournament, but the way it has worked out is that I did manage to return a very small profit on Day 1.
Now we get the opening First Round matches in the ATP Masters event being played in California over the next eleven days as well as the conclusion of the opening Round of the WTA Premier Event.
Conditions will continue to be something that has to be factored in and the remainder of this week looks like it could be a tough time to play tennis with some wind in the area and much cooler temperatures in the days ahead. It is going to be an adjustment period for the players over the next four or five days before it heats up again considerably and it will be something to factor into your plays.
Despite a pretty big schedule of matches set to go on Thursday, I have only found four that have hit my criteria and those selections can be seen below.
The tournament will pick up on Friday with the start of the WTA Second Round and the arrival of the biggest names onto the court and the ATP Masters Second Round will begin on Saturday as we will begin to get into the meat of the tournament.
Pierre-Hugues Herbert-Philipp Kohlschreiber over 22.5 games: These two players look to be moving in opposite directions in terms of their World Ranking on the ATP Tour, but Philipp Kohlschreiber has a chance to turn his declining numbers around in this First Round match.
While it is clear that the veteran is not the player he once was, Pierre-Hugues Herbert is beginning to find his feet as a Singles player having long been considered one of the top Doubles players in the world. Strong runs in tournaments throughout the opening two months of the 2019 season has seen Herbert reach a career high Ranking last month and his numbers are showing improvement.
It is the serve that has really been working very well for the Frenchman and it is a weapon that has long been a strength for him, but it is on the return where the real improvements can be seen.
The break percentage has just increased in each of the last three seasons and that has helped Herbert put more wins together on the hard courts. This season Herbert has been very good at taking the break point chances that have come his way and it is going to be something that Kohlschreiber has to be aware of despite some strong serving numbers of his own.
Philipp Kohlschreiber is actually serving pretty well, but his issue has been on the return of serve and it leads me to believe that we are going to see another tight match between these players much like we did when they met at Indian Wells twelve months ago. On that occasion neither player got a lot of joy from the return of serve, but it was Kohlschreiber who was a little more clinical with the limited chances that came his way as he earned a 6-4, 7-6 victory over Herbert.
The loser on the day has improved to think he can keep this one close and perhaps even overturn the result, but it has the feeling of a serve dominated match and I would not be surprised to see another tie-break being played. An early break could see this selection put in a lot of trouble early on and need a deciding set to earn the cover, but I don't think we are going to see a lot of break points in this match and it does feel like a match that will go deep into the first two sets.
Both players have strong service numbers on the hard courts in 2019 and neither has a great returning statistic which suggests we could get a tight, long match here.
Sam Stosur - 1.5 games v Madison Brengle: There was a time when Sam Stosur was someone who could be considered a threat to win Singles Grand Slam titles but at 34 years old her best days look to be behind her. Now it looks like the Australian is slipping down the World Rankings to the point where she will have to Qualify for some of the biggest events on the Tour and I do have to think that Stosur is perhaps considering her future in the sport.
In the first couple of years of this decade Stosur reached the Final of the French Open and won the US Open and I do think her hard work has been rewarded by overachieving the expectations most would have had of her.
The decline in the last couple of years has been evident, but Stosur may just be able to put a win on the board in the First Round in Indian Wells as she faces Madison Brengle.
This is an opponent that Stosur has beaten in all three previous matches and Brengle is another one of the players who looks to have had their best years on the Tour. Hard work has been the key for Brengle, but her game is pretty average and one that is hard to really imprint on opponents which means she is regularly put under the cosh.
Madison Brengle's last twelve months on the hard courts have seen her produce a lot more wins than Stosur and you can't ignore how much of a mental affect that can have on players. However a deeper look shows she is just 1-7 against top 100 Ranked players on the Tour in that time and Brengle has been struggling to really challenge those opponents.
Stosur is not playing like a top 100 player despite the Ranking, but her numbers have been stronger when facing players outside of the top 50 in the World Rankings. With her previous wins over Brengle as well as having the serve that can provide a few more cheaper ways through games, I think Stosur will find her way to a win here although the veteran is not someone I will be backing too many times going forward with a severe decline clear to see.
MY PICKS: Pierre-Hugues Herbert-Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 2-2, + 0.20 Units (8 Units Staked, + 2.5% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment