Indian Wells Masters Day 8 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 13th)

I won't lie, that is the kind of day I have experience picking matches at Indian Wells for a long time now.

You can't hide from the poor Picks, but when you can see the way others are about to fall down it doubles down on the pain of those poor selections.

Karolina Pliskova waiting until the cover could not be completed before going on and winning the next four games in a row to win the set was annoying.

But Venus Williams was up 5-2 in the first set and couldn't serve it out and also had a match point to earn the cover in the second set and still failed to get it done in what was a comfortable win for her on the day.

And then to really complete the saga it was Elina Svitolina missing what felt like multiple match points at different points of the second and third set which meant she also missed the cover by one game.

On one hand I say well done to the layers who got their marks down perfectly... But on the other I am hoping that kind of disappointing luck at those key moments swing back around for me.


So basically all the hard work done over the weekend has been erased by a miserable Tuesday, although I remain in a positive number for the tournament. It feels like it should be so much better considering I do think I read those three matches I've highlighted above perfectly, but we move on and look for better on Wednesday.


Karen Khachanov v John Isner: The conditions in Indian Wells are certainly not as quick as most of the other hard courts on the Tour, but these two players have monster shots which are going to give them the chance to run through some service games regardless.

2019 has perhaps not been as productive for John Isner as he would like in terms of the results he is putting together, but his numbers have remained strong. His serve is always going to be a shot that produces a very high number of holds, but Isner has been making use of the limited chances he gets to break serve and his break percentage numbers are higher than in previous seasons.

It is still not a number that leaps off the page at 13% on the hard courts, but that is enough when you are holding serve as convincingly as he has done for the most part in 2019. These numbers are certainly going to pose a test for Karen Khachanov who has been a little underwhelming in 2019 so far and who has gone 0-2 in matches on this surface against top 50 Ranked opponents.

The early numbers have taken a dip in both the serve and return aspects of Khachanov's game and it has left him vulnerable to a number of upsets already. However in this one is going to head into the match as the underdog and Khachanov should be confident he can be the one upsetting the odds when you think he has won all three previous matches against Isner.

Two of those were played on the hard courts last year when Khachanov allowed a total of just one break point to Isner across those matches. They did come in faster conditions than we will see in Indian Wells, but Khachanov also holds a clay court win over Isner from the French Open in 2017 and this is a match up he has enjoyed where so many others have not.

The young Russian has yet to be broken by Isner and he has found the two breaks of serve in the three matches which have proven to be decisive. John Isner has been in fine form in his two wins in Indian Wells to move through to the Fourth Round, but this has been a tough match up for him and it feels like another that is going to be decided by a point or two here and there.

Karen Khachanov's serving numbers against Isner could be vital even if the lottery of a tie-breaker is hard to judge and we could easily need a couple of those in this match. The fact he has never been broken by Isner will be on both player's minds at some point, especially if the match gets tight and I do think the underdog could be worth a play in this Fourth Round encounter.

I do think it will be another close match between these players, but Khachanov has made the big plays when the chances have come his way previously and the two wins should have him feeling good this week.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: There has been real signs that Philipp Kohlschreiber is a declining force on the ATP Tour, but the veteran still has the ability to put a really strong week together. That is exactly what he is doing in Indian Wells having beaten Acapulco Champion Nick Krygios and backing that up with an upset of the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic on his way through to the Fourth Round.

Once again Kohlschreiber is going to be an underdog as he faces Gael Monfils.

The enigmatic Frenchman seems to be knuckling down and looking to way winning tennis much more in 2019 than we have seen previously, although Monfils has regularly put together some solid weeks when it looks like he finally wants to win rather than entertain. He won the title in Rotterdam on the indoor hard courts and Monfils has continued to look focused on the court, while the match up with Kohlschreiber has proved to his liking in the past.

Gael Monfils leads the head to head with thirteen wins compared to two losses, while he has won all nine between them on the hard courts. His numbers have been significantly better than Kohlschreiber's and even though they have not played each other for over two years since the Australian Open, it is something that has to be factored in.

Coming off an emotional win is also tough for Kohlschreiber who had to play his Third Round match on Tuesday after poor weather prevented him and Djokovic playing more than one game on Monday. So while he has been out there toiling and earning his biggest win for some time, Gael Monfils would have been resting and I think that plays a part in this one too.

It has been a wonderful tournament for the German to this point and I do think Kohlschreiber will be dangerous, especially if he continues serving as well as he has. However Monfils has a strong break percentage against Kohlschreiber in their previous hard court matches and he is also in fine form in that aspect of his game in 2019 on the hard courts.

As long as Monfils can bring his usually decent serving to the court, I think he will have too much for Kohlschreiber and can beat him and cover the spread to reach the Quarter Final of yet another 2019 tournament.

MY PICKS: Karen Khachanov @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 21-19, + 0.90 Units (80 Units Staked, + 1.13% Yield)