Indian Wells Masters Day 10 Tennis Picks 2019 (March 15th)

The business end of the Indian Wells tournament has been reached as we are down to the Semi Finals in the Premier Event being played by the girls and we complete the Semi Final line up for the boys.

Two of the biggest names in the history of Tennis take to the court in the Masters event being played as both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are scheduled to go on Friday. Both are considered strong favourites to progress to a potential Semi Final meeting against each other on Saturday and that has to be the match the fans will be desperate to see.

While the majority of players may already have moved across to the East Coast in preparation for the tournament in Miami beginning in a few days time, I am concentrating on finishing this tournament off with a flourish and you can read the Friday selections below.


Bianca Andreescu v Elina Svitolina: The first of the WTA Semi Finals that have been put together features two players who have been in strong form in 2019 meeting.

The performances being produced by Elina Svitolina won't be a huge surprise considering she has been one of the top players on the WTA Tour for a couple of seasons now. Two Semi Final losses and one Quarter Final defeat would be considered strong returns by most players on the Tour, but for some Svitolina might still be considered an underachiever as she plays in her third Semi Final of 2019 on the hard courts and bids for her first Final of the season.

While any player that can put the wins together to reach the Semi Final has to be respected, Svitolina has not had an easy path through the draw. She has shown considerable resilience in winning three of her four matches in three sets and Svitolina has come from a set down in two of those wins which has to give her real confidence.

However the numbers have been far from dominating and the Svitolina serve has been attacked with some success by opponents. The Ukrainian has allowed at least nine break points in each of her matches so far at Indian Wells and the time she has spent on court in the last two Rounds has to be a concern even with the Thursday break from being on the court.

Now she faces the promising youngster Bianca Andreescu who at 18 years old is making hay on the main Tour in 2019. The Canadian turns 19 later this year, but she has showed plenty of maturity in her wins so far at Indian Wells including a stunning 52 minute win over Garbine Muguruza in the Quarter Final.

Strong performances behind the first serve and a successful return have propelled Andreescu through the draw and it will be hard to stop her if she can maintain the standards set. I do think she can drag Elina Svitolina into another battle and at that point Andreescu is going to go into this match with the superior fitness that can be relied upon down the stretch.

It is a big match for the youngster and that could lead to a tense performance, but she has shown plenty of belief in her own game. As long as Bianca Andreescu can stay in the moment, I think she may have a little more in the tank to beat Elina Svitolina in a tight match and backing her as the underdog is the pick here.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Karen Khachanov: I haven't backed Rafael Nadal so far this week, but that is going to change in the Quarter Final despite the Spaniard being asked to cover a big number against talented Karen Khachanov.

I've long felt the conditions in Indian Wells would the most perfect of the hard courts for Rafael Nadal and he is going for his fourth title here over the next few days. It is one of the slower hard courts on the Tour and Nadal does appreciate the bounce he gets off it and also the spin he can generate to put opponents in a tough position.

This match will be a test of the Nadal game as he has previously had a couple of tough matches against Karen Khachanov on the hard courts over the last nine months. One of those matches came at the Canadian Masters and the other at the US Open in 2018 and while Nadal has had strong serving numbers, he has not been able to get on top of the Khachanov serve as he would have liked.

In both matches Khachanov was able to play the big points very well which kept him competitive against Nadal and he is going to have to need to do the same in this Quarter Final on Friday. The 2019 performances have been decent from Khachanov, but he has been in stronger form here in Indian Wells and that has seen him improve his numbers both on the serve and return.

All of those aspects of the Khachanov game are going to be tested by Rafael Nadal who has been in elite form on the hard courts in 2019. He has been loving his time in Indian Wells where he has broken in 50% of return games played and Nadal's new service action has continued to be remarkably successful for the Spaniard.

It will be interesting to see how long Nadal can keep up the service numbers he is producing on this surface, but it certainly gives him a chance to win tournaments on the hard courts. He should believe the serve can give him a real chance to beat out Karen Khachanov who has struggled in his career when it comes to the return of serve against top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface, especially if Nadal is returning as effectively as he is.

There is no doubt this is a big number considering how close their two matches on the hard courts were last summer. However I think Nadal is playing at a very good level at the moment and his return can cause Khachanov enough problems to break down the youngster and move through to the Semi Final.


Belinda Bencic v Angelique Kerber: A tough Quarter Final match could have potentially taken something out of the legs for Belinda Bencic who had to battle hard physically and mentally to see off Karolina Pliskova. On another day it would have been a lot more comfortable, but Bencic was guilty of missing a host of break point chances in the second and third set which left the match on a knife edge until the very end.

Ultimately the 'Swiss Miss' continued her roll to move to 12-0 since the start of February and the confidence is flowing as she is could finish close to the top 10 in the World Rankings if she is able to add the Indian Wells tournament to the one she won in Dubai. It would be a deserved Ranking as Pliskova became the latest player currently in the top 10 of the World Rankings to be beaten by Bencic in the last month and now she has a chance to add yet another from that list to her vanquished list on Friday.

This time Bencic has to take on Angelique Kerber who saw off veteran Venus Williams in straight sets in her own Quarter Final on Thursday. It was another solid win for Kerber, although she may have to step up her game another level when taking on Bencic having had to dig in deep to come through a couple of tough matches already at the event.

The Kerber serve has been working well so far in the tournament which may be a surprise considering the slower conditions. However it is an important part of her game and gives the German confidence to go on the offensive on the return and winning just under 50% of return points will give you the chance to win most matches when serving competently.

I do think it is a different test for Kerber against Bencic though who has been returning wonderfully so far in the tournament. She has won a slightly higher percentage of return points at 51% and the Bencic first serve has been a key weapon for her.

A couple of disadvantages have to be overcome by Bencic and the main one is the time she spent on court on Thursday compared with Kerber. However in general she has not been leaving too much energy out there and I do think she is a worthy favourite in this match and one I am happy to back for a third time this week having gone 2-0 in Bencic matches so far.

I have a lot of time for Kerber too who beat Bencic at Wimbledon last year on her way to winning another Grand Slam, but playing top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts has been a challenge for her over the last twelve months. The three wins here have taken her above 0.500 for those matches at 14-13 in win-loss terms, but Kerber is now playing against someone in great form and she has not really been as dominant in these types of matches as she would like.

Belinda Bencic can be backed to win, although again I will go with a straight win and not worry too much about the manner of her win.

MY PICKS: Bianca Andreescu @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indian Wells Update: 24-19, + 7.10 Units (86 Units Staked, + 8.26% Yield)