Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 28th)

I only had the one Tennis Pick on Wednesday and Simona Halep's strong run of five games in a row to close out the match enabled that selection to be returned as a winner.

On Thursday we have two remaining ATP Quarter Final matches to be played as well as both WTA Semi Final matches on the last really busy day at the Miami Masters. The new surroundings have looked decent on the television of the limited tennis I have managed to see over the last ten days, but I am going to be interested to hear how the players feel and that should be much clearer in the weeks ahead.

There have been some fresh new faces reaching the business end of the tournament, but I am not sure that is down to the conditions as much as how the draw has panned out. Some of those faces are also players that look set to be at the start of very promising careers too, but the breakdown of the Miami event will be there for all to see soon.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: The rain in Miami meant Roger Federer's Fourth Round match against Daniil Medvedev had to be postponed until Wednesday. He did manage to move past the youngster in efficient manner, but Federer is going to have had little rest compared with opponent Kevin Anderson who won his Fourth Round match against Jordan Thompson on Tuesday.

I am not anticipating that being a big problem for Federer and I do think the Swiss player is going to be able to get past Anderson for a place in the Semi Final of the Miami Masters. I also am expecting Federer to do that in relatively serene fashion and backing him to cover a number I thought would potentially be at least one game higher.

The most famous match played between Federer and Anderson clearly occurred at Wimbledon last summer when the South African was able to rally from 0-2 down in sets for a stunning win in the Quarter Final. It was just one of those days for Federer who had the chances to win the match on multiple occasions, and I do think this is a match up that hasn't really bothered him too much.

An element of revenge was exacted by Federer in the ATP World Tour Finals in November when he proved to be an easy winner over Anderson and that also improved his record to 4-0 against the big man on the hard courts. In those matches Anderson has only held serve in 58% of his games which is a remarkably low number for someone used to holding in the high 80's as a percentage.

He has not been able to get into the Federer service games either with the former World Number 1 winning almost 75% of the points behind his own serve. I don't think Anderson is going to improve that much against Federer in Miami considering how well the latter has been serving in 2019 in general and in this tournament, while Federer's return game has been much improved over the last month at Indian Wells and here which gives him every chance of covering this spread.

Kevin Anderson has some impressive numbers in his return to the Tour having not played since the Australian Open, but this is a step up by a considerable margin from having played Jaume Munar, Joao Sousa and Jordan Thompson. With a historically bad match up in front of him, I think Anderson is going to have a hard time keeping Federer off of him and I think the latter will find the breaks of serve he needs to win this match and cover this number.

Federer has broken in just under 25% of the return games played over the last month on the hard courts and his strong performances against Anderson suggests he can make enough balls in play to find those breaks in this one too.


Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: Backing up a big win like the one Ashleigh Barty had over Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final is going to be a tough task, but the Australian has become used to playing and winning matches at the top tournaments and that should put her in a good position to earn a spot in this Premier Event Final.

Recovering from dropping the second set to breeze through a third shows Barty is now very much amongst the best players on the Tour, although the clay court season is going to present a different test for her in the weeks ahead. However Barty has shown an all around improvement in her game over the last twelve months and I fully expect her to crack the top 10 and keep moving up the World Rankings.

Winning the title in Miami would be a huge boost of confidence for Barty and she should have a little too much for Anett Kontaveit who has battled her way through to the Semi Final.

The Estonian has really had to battle after needing three sets to win three matches in the tournament while the other saw Bianca Andreescu forced to retire in the second set. Those wins have been close affairs too and Kontaveit has yet to beat a top 20 Ranked opponent so far in the tournament.

Matches against the top 10 players on the hard courts have been tough throughout her career and I think Kontaveit is going to have to up her level significantly if she is going to win this match against someone soon to join those Rankings. So far Kontaveit has returned very well in the tournament, but Barty has an edge on that side of her game and also seems to be serving at a higher level too.

This is a big number considering the power that Kontaveit has and the ability she has to hit through the court, but Barty's defensive skills should be a frustration to her too. The conditions are generally slower in Miami and I think that will allow Barty to switch from attack to defence and vice versa much better than her opponent and lead to a strong looking win on the day.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Miami Update: 7-3, + 5.82 Units (20 Units Staked, + 29.10% Yield)