There was a time when the tournament coming up in Miami was considered the unofficial fifth Grand Slam, but that title seems to be taken by the tournament in Indian Wells these days.
Both the ATP and WTA Tours come together for the next month with the back to back North American hard court Masters/Premier Events scheduled to be played. These events are the same length as the Grand Slam tournaments but one of the key differences for the top Seeds is that they are given a Bye through to the Second Round. The big names return to the Tour after taking in very little competitive tennis between the Australian Open and this event beginning.
You have to factor in the conditions in Indian Wells which has regularly been considered one of the slower hard courts on the Tour, but the outside factors do make the ball fly through the air. It is something to consider as most of the players are coming into the tournament playing in very differing conditions in Europe (lots of indoor tennis) and in the Middle East where the conditions tend to be that much faster than you will find in the two North American hard court events coming up.
It is something you should be looking at this week and factoring into the selections although the men's tournament have been dominated by the big names as you would expect in recent years. In something of a surprise Roger Federer has been very good in the conditions, while Juan Martin Del Potro is the defending Champion and that suggests the desert air does give players the chance to really hit through the court.
Naomi Osaka won the women's event here in 2018, although the recent winners have been a mixed bag on the WTA side of things. However that is very similar to the way the Grand Slams have been shared out by a number of different names in the last couple of years.
The First Round of the WTA event in Indian Wells begins on Wednesday and the ATP First Round is set to begin on Thursday for a tournament that will take twelve days to complete before the players have to make the move to East Coast and begin the Miami event.
In the last week of the Tennis Picks I added some positive numbers to what has been a very good 2019 season, but I will admit I have had very little success in the month of March over the last few years. It was actually this time last year when I decided to take a break for the entire month and work out a way to just straighten out my criteria for making Picks after what had been a difficult fifteen months.
That has seemingly worked, but this time I want to be in front of the evolution as we begin a new game at a new tournament to see if I can keep the positive numbers coming.
Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Pauline Parmentier: The Indian Wells tournament and the one coming up in Miami are two of the slower hard courts on the Tour and it does feel much like a 'horses for courses' kind of event. This is one of the big events outside of the Grand Slams so motivation for all of the big names will be high, but conditions in the desert on the West Coast of the United States have been difficult for players to deal with, especially in relation to what is considered to be the slowest hard court on the Tour.
The problem for players is balancing out the overall conditions which sees the ball fly off the racquet in Indian Wells and it means a lot of unforced errors can be in play. Players are pushing to hit the ball through a slow court, but timing can be an issue and that is what players will have to face here.
Johanna Konta is a big favourite to beat Pauline Parmentier in the First Round of the WTA draw, but she has not had a memorable time in Indian Wells in the past. Her best run is reaching the Fourth Round in 2016, but Konta has won just one match in her last two visits to this tournament although I would expect her to get the better of her opponent in this one.
There is no doubt that there is room for improvement in the Konta game as she has struggled to reach the heights she did on the hard court in 2016. Her numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons including in her opening matches in 2019, but Konta is still a dangerous player when she can get herself going.
Pauline Parmentier is going to have to really raise her level if she is going to force Konta to have to dig deep and perhaps earn an upset in this one. If the Frenchwoman can put some pressure on Konta there is a chance she can do that, but it has been a difficult 2019 for Parmentier who is 4-6 on the hard courts overall and sees that record drop to 1-5 when she has faced top 100 Ranked opponents.
The serve has been attacked and Parmentier has not really returned as well as she would have liked and that doesn't bode well in a match against someone like Konta who reached the Quarter Final in Acapulco last week. It has been a struggle against the top 100 Ranked opponents Parmentier has faced on the hard courts in the last fifteen months and her numbers reflect that which is why I am leaning towards Konta in not only winning, but covering what is a big number on paper.
In that time Parmentier is 4-17 on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and she has failed to cover this number in twelve of those losses. Johanna Konta is 17-3 in the same timespan when playing against someone Ranked outside the top 50 and she has found a way to cover this number in twelve of those wins and I will look for her to break the Parmentier serve enough times to earn a cover here too.
Dayana Yastremska - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There are a number of bright young talents coming through on the WTA Tour and the highest Ranked teenager on the Tour is Dayana Yastremska. The Ukrainian moved into a career high spot of Number 34 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Hua Hin at the end of January/early February and Yastremska has looked very impressive in the matches she has played.
She is going to be a big favourite to see off Daria Gavrilova in the First Round in Indian Wells as the Australian has made a miserable start to 2019. Daria Gavrilova has lost all six matches she has played on the hard courts and those have largely been uncompetitive losses which always knocks the confidence a lot more.
In those six losses, Gavrilova has only managed to win a single set and even getting this number of games would not have been enough to 'win' any of those matches by covering the handicap. The serve has always been a shot that can be attacked by opponents and her numbers have not really dipped on that front, but Gavrilova has struggled on the return of serve and she is winning a lot fewer points than she has been doing.
At some point I would expect Gavrilova to recover her form and start putting some wins on the board, but this could be a tough match for her. Dayana Yastremska has been serving pretty well for the most part, but she is backing it up with some big returning and my only fear for the Ukrainian is that she gets a little bamboozled by the conditions and begins to make a lot more unforced errors as she struggles to control the ball off the strings.
The speed around the court should help Gavrilova use her defensive skills effectively in this First Round match and confusing the youngster or forcing her to go too close to the lines will give her the chance of the upset. However I do think Yastremska will be able to push the Australian back behind the baseline and I am anticipating her getting into a position to force a number of breaks of serve.
Yastremska has been very strong playing opponents Ranked outside the top 20 so far this season and has won eleven of thirteen in that spot. In those eleven wins Yastremska would have covered this mark eight times and I think she will be in a position to do that here against an out of sorts opponent.
MY PICKS: Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jennifer Brady - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Season 2019: + 42.52 Units (427 Units Staked, + 9.96% Yield)
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