More winners have been put into the books at Indian Wells on Monday and that is keeping the week moving in a positive direction.
On Tuesday the Third Round of the ATP Masters event is completed, while the entire Fourth Round of the WTA Premier Event is set to be played on one day. The temperatures look like they are going to take an upswing and that is going to change the conditions in Indian Wells for the players who have been used to playing in a much cooler environment.
It could have a real impact on how much the players are able to hit through the court in the days ahead and it is something to consider when you make you picks for the remainder of this tournament.
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: In each passing week you can see the improvement that Daniil Medvedev is making in his game and it is important for him to keep racking up the World Ranking points ahead of the clay court portion of the season. The young Russian player is yet to produce his best on the clay, but he can put himself into a position to be Ranked highly at the big events coming up which in turn should place him in a strong position to have a real go when it comes to Wimbledon and the US Open later this year.
He has reached a career high World Ranking last month and Medvedev is continuing to edge closer to a top ten Ranking for the first time, but this Third Round match should be a challenge for him. Injuries have hurt Filip Krajinovic over the last twelve months, but the Serbian is playing with real confidence at the moment and should offer up some real resistance to Medvedev.
It is never easy to face a Qualifier like Krajinovic who is very happy in the conditions, especially as he was also playing in the Challenger event held here last week. He has managed to put four wins on the board already at this Masters event which should see Krajinovic return to the top 100 in the Rankings, and he has produced back to back strong wins over top 50 Ranked opponents including another over David Goffin having already beaten the Belgian earlier this season.
Filip Krajinovic is producing some solid numbers and it is the return of serve which has proven to be very important for him. In each of the last four years he has shown improvement on the return and in 2019 he is breaking in just under 30% of the return games played on the hard courts which will give anyone a strong chance of putting a run of wins together.
You would imagine those numbers take a dent when playing the higher Ranked opponents, but that has not been the case and so Krajinovic has to be respected here.
However, Daniil Medvedev has been playing at a very high level and even a couple of back to back losses in Rotterdam and Dubai have not dented the numbers he is producing. His serve has remained strong with an almost 85% hold rate on the hard courts in both 2018 and so far in 2019, but Medvedev has upped the break percentage and that makes him a player that could take the next step in his career as he continues to improve.
It should prove to be the difference in this match too as Medvedev holds serve a little more regularly than Krajinovic and can actually match the return numbers that the latter has produced. This could be a rare hard court match with a few more breaks of serve between two ATP players as the slower conditions in Indian Wells does make it a little more difficult for the servers, but Medvedev should have the edge.
All credit to Krajinovic for putting the wins together, but the run could end here.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: In recent years Marin Cilic has been one of the top players on the Tour and in the last couple of years he has come very close to adding to the US Open Grand Slam title he has won. A couple of Grand Slam Final defeats and deep runs in others have seen the Croatian come close to becoming a multiple time Grand Slam Champion, but 2019 has begun with a little more difficulty for him.
His numbers are down across the board in 2019 compared with 2018 heading into this Third Round match at Indian Wells, but Cilic remains a strong server and that does put pressure on opponents. There is a real will to win that still burns inside of Cilic and that is why he is still producing a winning record, but he could be more vulnerable in matches like this one than he has been in previous years.
The service numbers are slightly down on last season, but Cilic has still been holding at a strong rate and I think those will improve if he can get his returning back on track. While still winning plenty of points off the opponent's serve, Cilic has perhaps not been as clinical at finishing off the break points as he has been in previous years and I do think that is going to be something that can be worked out by the Croatian.
On Tuesday he faces the young star Denis Shapovalov although I think the Canadian is going to have to up his game if he is going to challenge someone as good as Cilic can be.
Denis Shapovalov has been in mixed form on the hard courts in 2019 and I do think that is something of a surprise as you would feel this is one of his better surfaces. The court in Indian Wells is arguably one of the tougher courts for Shapovalov to play on, but he did have a solid win over Steve Johnson in the Second Round which may give him a boost of confidence to take into this match.
His overall numbers on the hard courts have been solid in 2019, but Shapovalov has not really been able to pick it up when he has faced a top 50 Ranked opponent. Before this week he had lost all four matches in that situation and his service hold percentage drops from 83% down to 75%, while his break percentage falls from 19% to 15%.
Those numbers are not too dissimilar to his 2018 ones and I do think this is a tough match up for Shapovalov with Cilic's long levers meaning he can get a few more balls back in play than the youngster may think. When they met on an indoor hard court at the end of 2018 Cilic dominated on the return and I think he is going to have the edge in this one too.
I really thought he would have been a game bigger favourite on the handicap so I will back Cilic in this spot to move through to the Fourth Round.
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 games v Radu Albot: Any player who comes through the Qualifiers and can work their way to the Third Round in these ATP Masters events has to be respected, but Radu Albot's confidence may be even higher than those who have done that previously.
You would say the draw has been pretty kind to Albot so far this week, but it is up to players to take advantage and he has backed up what has been a strong 2019 so far. The Moldovan hit a career high World Ranking at the end of February which came about after he won the Delray Beach title, while Albot has already reached the Semi Final in Marseille.
Those wins have come in tournaments that have featured some big names and I do think Albot deserves the respect he is being given by the layers. The numbers are up on the serve and that has been important for Albot as it has given him a chance to put his decent returning skills to good use instead of trying to play catch up in matches.
However I do think you have to note the performances against the top 50 Ranked opponents even though Albot has a 3-2 record on the hard courts in those matches. His service numbers dip closer to his general numbers from previous seasons and Albot has not returned as effectively as he would have liked and I do think think both elements of his game will be tested by Kyle Edmund.
The British Number 1 took a few weeks off after the Australian Open as he was perhaps suffering with a knock or two that needed to be shaken off. A lack of competitive tennis would have been a concern going into the Indian Wells Masters, but a good decision to take in the Challenger event here last week has paid off with Edmund going on to win the title.
Confidence should not be a problem and that was evident in his Second Round match against Nicolas Jarry when Edmund dropped just two games on his way through to this match. Improving the return of serve is the key for Edmund if he is going to take the next step in his career, and so far he has been strong on that side of his game in 2019 although Edmund has yet to really play some of the top names on the Tour.
The serve could be a big weapon for Edmund and he has solid hold numbers over the last couple of years which I think can be used to pressure Albot in this Third Round match. It could open up some chances on the return, although I don't like dismissing Albot easily with the way he has been playing in the last six weeks.
However I do think Edmund is comfortable in the conditions and he has shown an ability to play on the slower surfaces which should not frustrate him in Indian Wells. The wind has died down somewhat from earlier this week and the temperatures should not be too bad, while the humidity is something Edmund has dealt with in his time here over the last couple of weeks.
It is going to be tight on the numbers, but I do think Edmund can keep his Indian Wells run going and just edge out Albot over the course of this match.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: I wanted to write very few words about this match rather than placing it in the 'MY PICKS' section below.
I know I've wrote about Roger Federer and not wanting to back him to cover at 4.5 games and higher because of a return game that has been lacking the kind of punch you would want, but coming down one game is more reasonable for him.
In that situation he might not have to break as many as three times as he may have to do for a 4.5 game handicap if the coin toss goes against him. Now it is a chance for Federer to cover with a single break of serve, especially against someone who is serving as big as Wawrinka has been in 2019.
The problem for Stan Wawrinka is the awful head to head with Federer on the hard courts while his own return of serve numbers have not really recovered to the level he had prior to his injury. A couple of loose service games, which can be a feature of a Wawrinka performance, may be enough for Federer to win and cover in this Third Round match and I think the former World Number 1 can do that.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: The first thing I have noticed about Anett Kontaveit this week is that she looks to be in about as good a physical shape as I remember. At first glance I didn't even recognise her and it could see Kontaveit become a player that begins to fulfil the obvious potential she has with a big game that can be tough for opponents to deal with when she is in form.
Inconsistencies need to be erased if Kontaveit is really going to get in amongst the very best players on the Tour, but she looks like being in a position to reach a new career high World Ranking at the end of Indian Wells. Putting another win on the board by upsetting Karolina Pliskova would almost certainly see her break inside the top 20 of the World Rankings but beating players already in those positions has not been something the Estonian has been able to do with any kind of regularity.
In very simple terms Kontaveit has not returned as well as she would have liked in those matches against the top players on the WTA Tour and it puts a lot of pressure on her to produce big serving days to stay competitive. The retirement of Anastasija Sevastova on Monday means Kontaveit is 4-7 in matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but the numbers indicate that the defeats have tended to be a little one-sided and the wins have been very tight.
Now she has to face Karolina Pliskova in the Fourth Round and this is a player that has enjoyed strong runs at Indian Wells in the last few years visiting. The Czech player has yet to go on and win the title, which would represent the biggest of her career, but Pliskova is going to be very difficult to stop this year as she has bounced back from an underwhelming 2018 on this surface.
A strong 15-3 record on the hard courts is impressive and the numbers have been good, although there is a slight concern about the fact that Pliskova has been involved in so many three set matches. While she has won a large majority of those, it is a tough way to continue to make a living and hope to win big titles.
It also makes it hard to really be confident in backing a player to cover more than a 2.5 game spread when they are being asked to win matches in the final set. However in this case I do think the Pliskova serve is going to be a huge weapon for her when you consider the problems Kontaveit has had in returning against top 20 Ranked players over the last twelve months.
If Pliskova can get enough first serves in play I do think it will be difficult for Kontaveit to really get her teeth into this match. It is especially tough if Pliskova can start to get a read on the Kontaveit serve and I think we will see the Czech player find a way to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve attached to it.
That could be enough for her to cover here and I will back her to do that against a player who has lost seven matches to top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts in the last twelve months. Six of those losses would have seen her fail to earn a cover with this start and I will look for the same to happen here.
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Is this a passing of the torch moment between two players going in opposite directions as far as their careers go? That may be a touch harsh on 31 year old Angelique Kerber who has shown she can bounce back and win big titles even when off form and who is currently the defending Wimbledon Champion, but it does feel like Aryna Sabalenka is marching towards the top of the women's game.
There are some talented players ahead of the Belarusian in the Rankings and her window for success may not be that wide if she doesn't continue improving with some huge talents breaking through. Aryna Sabalenka went into the Australian Open as one of the favourites to win the title and was dismissed emphatically by one of those young talents, but she is young and looks to be improving all the time.
You can see those improvements from the numbers when you split up the last twelve months into three parts. Early on Sabalenka was not quite putting it all together, but by the back end of 2018 she was flying and has only seemingly gotten better in the first couple of months of 2019.
One concern for Sabalenka fans has to be the fact she has yet to beat a top 20 Ranked player on the hard courts in 2019 and the two losses suffered have seen her fall away after dropping tight opening sets. That indicates the first set in this Fourth Round match is going to be very important for the younger player just to make sure she keeps her belief going.
Angelique Kerber is a superb defender and she can frustrate Sabalenka in their first match against each other, although the German has looked far from assured herself. Her general numbers on the hard courts have actually been strong, but Kerber has struggled when the competition has ramped up and I think that could be the case again.
Where Sabalenka has a winning record against top 20 players she has faced on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Kerber is 3-6 in those matches. She has not returned nearly as well as she would have liked and is capable of and that has put pressure on Kerber whose own serve can be a vulnerability when she is facing these kinds of big hitters like Sabalenka.
At her best Kerber could frustrate the life out of Sabalenka with an ability to get plenty of returns in play and defend the big hitting groundstrokes. I just don't think we have seen enough of Kerber at her best in these big matches over a prolonged period now and I will look for Sabalenka to record her biggest win of 2019 by edging out Kerber over three sets.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Qiang Wang @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 19-12, + 11.08 Units (62 Units Staked, + 17.87% Yield)
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