Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (March 25th)

So I haven't made any Tennis Picks since the end of Indian Wells and that is very much down to being away from the United Kingdom and just taking a bit of time to reset.

I can't really complain about the performance of the Tennis Picks as another winning week was put on the board and it honestly felt like being my first winning tournament from Indian Wells in forever

The decision to get away between Indian Wells and the second week in Miami beginning was made a long time ago and very much down to one simple factor- the international break in Football which meant not missing any Manchester United games.

I've a patient partner to say the least.


This week is going to be a busy one for the blog- there should be Tennis Picks daily from the remainder of the Miami tournament and I am going to update season totals before the clay season begins in Charleston next week and kicks into overdrive heading towards the French Open at the end of May.

I will also be posting the next Fantasy Football post and thoughts from the weekend Premier League action on Friday as we hit the first Double GameWeek of the season. Plenty of points are up for grabs so mini-Leagues are not lost for those playing and I've been on a pretty good roll when it comes to selecting key players.

And finally the week is going to be rounded off with the next set of Boxing selections.


First things first is the Tennis from Miami and the continuing rise of Bianca Andreescu is creating headlines for the WTA as she backs up her title win in Indian Wells with a strong run here. It is a loaded field entering the Fourth Round which is completed on Monday, while the ATP Masters Fourth Round line up is completed on the same day.

The shift to the clay courts will then be welcomed by some of the players on the Tour and others less so, but it is one of my favourite times of the season and I am hoping to have a strong part of the year to really set 2019 up to becoming a top one for the selections.


Below you can read the analysis of a couple of the matches being played on Monday and full selections can then be seen in the 'MY PICKS' section.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: I am going against one of my more recent rules on Monday in the ATP Masters Third Round and that is backing Roger Federer to cover more than a four game handicap in a best of three set match on a hard court.

The spot has to be very much the reason for it and I do think it is a good place for Federer to continue the roll from Indian Wells and especially after coming through a tough Second Round match. The former World Number 1 needed three sets to get past a much improved Radu Albot and it is clear that Federer is not the force of old, especially when it comes to the return of serve.

That makes this kind of spread a difficult one for him to cover in my opinion, although Federer is playing an opponent who had difficulty holding serve against him in their two meetings on a hard court in 2018. The second match was much tougher for Federer, but the latter has been serving at a very high level throughout 2019 and it is the ability to break the Filip Krajinovic serve that should give him a chance to win and cover.

It won't be too long before Krajinovic is back approaching his peak World Ranking of Number 28 which was achieved eleven months ago, but injuries have knocked him out of the top 100. That hasn't stopped him producing some strong results and the run to the Indian Wells Fourth Round coupled with winning two matches in Miami will have built the confidence.

There is no doubting what a dangerous player Krajinovic can be and his numbers are strong on the hard courts for 2019 and very similar to the level he was producing in 2017 before an injury hit 2018. However this is a step up to a level he has not been used to playing and last week we saw Krajinovic struggle to get into the Rafael Nadal service games in Indian Wells.

Now he has to face an opponent holding almost 95% of the service games played on the hard courts in 2019 and that is going to make it very difficult for the Serbian to get his teeth into this match. I do think he has the talent to test Federer, but this could be a comfortable match up for the latter in terms of the type of tennis he is facing from the other side of the net.

Over the last two weeks Federer has shown a little more out of his return game too and I think that can see him cover this number at odds against. I would not back him at odds on with these kinds of spreads because so much is determined by the coin toss at the start of the match, but Federer should have the majority of break point chances and the superior serving should give him a chance to put pressure on Krajinovic and find the breaks of serve needed to cover.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Two of the bright young talents of the ATP Tour meet in the Miami Masters Third Round on Monday and it has the makings of being a really good watch.

The higher Ranked player going into this match is Denis Shapovalov who is getting close to reaching a new career high World Ranking and eyeing up a spot in the top 20. His game is a dynamic one, although there is no doubt the teenager is still looking for the consistency to challenge the very best out there.

He faces Andrey Rublev who had been close to dropping out of the top 100 of the World Rankings thanks to a series of injuries that had seen his form drop away from levels he had displayed on the Tour. Coming through two Qualifiers is always a confidence booster and Rublev has also upset Marin Cilic on his way through the Miami draw, while the hard court numbers have improved with a run to the Indian Wells Final in a Challenger event at the same site as the Masters event is played.

Rublev is the superior returner in this match, but there have been definite signs that Shapovalov is improving that side of his game all the time. A better conversion rate of the break points will help the young Canadian, but he should also have a real edge when it comes to the serve and I feel that is going to make the difference on the day in what looks a close match to call.

In the last month Shapovalov has been creating more break points than he has been allowing and Rublev's 73% hold percentage on the hard courts at the main ATP level is not really going to be good enough. He might have more success playing a returner like Shapovalov, but the improvement mentioned means Rublev will have to deal with the pressurised moments if he is going to earn the upset.

Confidence that has been built up by Rublev can't be ignored and he did win their previous head to head. That caame in the ATP Next Gen Finals at the end of 2017, but the rules are different and even on that day Shapovalov had a host of break point chances that slipped through his fingers.

As long as he can be a little more clinical when the chances come his way, I think Shapovalov can win and cover in this one.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Qiang Wang - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)