The first couple of days at the Indian Wells Masters has been tough work for the Tennis Picks and I am partly to blame for overthinking one of my selections.
I had shortlisted Philipp Kohlschreiber to beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert but made a mistake in being intrigued by a different angle and ultimately that was the reason I dropped into a losing position for the week.
It's not a major concern at this stage, but it has been a difficult tournament for me to read in the past and I am going to keep a close eye on how events turn out here. Two years ago I had some of the most ridiculous of luck at this tournament with players consistently blowing winning conditions and I do tend to believe that the players are not always at their most comfortable in the unique conditions you tend to find in Indian Wells.
We are into the Second Round of the WTA Premier Event in Indian Wells on Friday and I am hoping the tournament can begin to move into a positive position for these selections.
It has been a relatively slow couple of days, but I've had a few more matches hit the criteria to be selected on this day and you can see those below.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: When these two top tennis players last met in the Final of the Indian Wells Premier Event in 2016 it was Victoria Azarenka who came out on top and took home one of the bigger titles of her career. Back then it looked like Azarenka would be able to go on and challenge Williams at the major events as she snapped a five match losing run against the American and Azarenka was going to enjoy her best year on the Tour on the hard courts.
In 2016 Azarenka finished up with a 22-1 record on the hard courts and she won the Indian Wells/Miami double which has proven to be incredibly difficult to do, but injuries prevented the Belarusian from taking to the courts later that year at the US Open.
That was the beginning of a two year difficult run for Azarenka who faced those injuries and then a custody battle over her son which meant she could not leave California to play in tournaments like she would have wanted. Her return to the Tour has proved to be a little difficult as Azarenka is playing well, but not reaching the heights of 2016 and you can see she is struggling with that after her defeat at the Australian Open.
Victoria Azarenka is a talented player, but it has been very hard to compete with the very best players on the Tour and there is no doubt that Serena Williams remains one of those. However over the last twelve months Williams has not really hit the same levels as she was doing a couple of years ago after her own return to the Tour and this is her first match back out since her surprise Quarter Final defeat to Karolina Pliskova at the Australian Open.
The defeat alone and the lay off from the Tour is not a concern because Serena is someone who can use her aura to intimidate opponents on her return. However that is not going to be the case here and there are one or two questions about her health having rolled an ankle in the third set of the defeat to Pliskova in January.
A break between the Australian Open and Indian Wells has been standard practice for Williams in recent years and I think she can produce a sold win in this primetime Second Round match. Despite not being as strong as a couple of years ago, Williams maintains a dominant serve and her return should put Azarenka's serve under severe examination and this has been a weapon that has struggled for the latter.
The second serve in particularly could be taken advantage of by the Williams return and I think that will be the key to her success in this one. I really hope Victoria Azarenka can rediscover her best, but she is still searching for that right now and Serena Williams can come through with a win and a cover.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Barbora Strycova: Tiredness may have been a factor in Simona Halep's relatively early defeat in Dubai in her last tournament, but the Romanian continues to be a player that is there or thereabouts on any surface the Tour moves onto.
She now makes her bow at the Indian Wells Premier Event on Friday in the Second Round as a former winner of the tournament and someone who tends to enjoy the conditions a little more than in Miami. That has seen her stronger results in March tend to come in this event and Simona Halep should be someone who enjoys the match up with Barbora Strycova in this Second Round encounter.
That is no disrespect to Strycova, but the Czech player is somewhat short of the results that took her to a career best World Ranking in January 2017. Barbora Strycova has won a match here to get into the Second Round and the familiarity with the Indian Wells conditions could give her a chance for the upset, but her previous matches with Halep have quickly gotten away from her as her game is very similar, but not as consistent as the one the former World Number 1 can bring to the court.
It has been a difficult twelve months on the Tour for Strycova when it comes to hard court tennis and she is just 2-10 in matches against top 50 Ranked opponents in that time. She has found it difficult to protect the serve and she is not returning well enough against those opponents to challenge them and it is not a big surprise she has taken some one-sided defeats in that time.
Now Strycova has to face an opponent like Halep who has an underrated serve and one that can be very effective at players outside of the elite on the WTA Tour. The first serve in particular can set Halep up for success in those matches and her return is one that should be able to hurt Strycova throughout this match especially when Halep gets to see the second serve.
They have not played each since 2017, but that was at a time when Strycova would have been playing with a lot more confidence. However it is Halep who has dominated their last four matches and three of those have come on the hard courts. In those matches the Strycova second serve has been attacked relentlessly and she has not been able to get enough joy from the return of serve and I would not be surprised if this Second Round match goes in a similar direction on Friday.
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 games v Tatjana Maria: One of the most improved players on the Tour over the last couple of years is Ashleigh Barty who has gone from strength to strength having returned to tennis following some time spent playing professional cricket.
The Australian is a very talented player and while she is still searching to breakthrough against the elite on the WTA Tour, Barty's consistent performances have taken her into her career best World Number 12 Ranking.
After taking some time out from the Tour, Barty returns in Indian Wells and will be looking to be a Seeded player that avoids the pitfalls which come with a first competitive match against someone who has been playing a lot in recent weeks. Tatjana Maria is in her fourth tournament since playing at the Australian Open compared with Barty who has had two Fed Cup matches between the first Grand Slam of the season and early March.
The German player has to be respected as she is willing to battle on the court, but Maria has struggled when she has been asked to compete with some of the better players on the Tour. Over the last twelve months Maria is 2-9 when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and that number drops to 0-4 when you narrow it down to top 20 Ranked opponents.
Tatjana Maria's service numbers and return numbers take a severe dent in those matches and now she faces someone like Barty who has improved her Ranking by making sure she wins the matches she should be. In the same timespan I measured for Maria, Barty has gone 23-2 on the hard courts when facing a player that is not Ranked inside the top 20 and her numbers reach some very strong levels in those matches to underline her dominance.
I will have to point out one of those losses for Barty came here in Indian Wells twelve months ago against Maria Sakkari and the lay off is a slight concern for me. However in the most part Barty has dominated those opponents and won matches very comfortably and Maria's struggles against the better players on this surface suggests we will see more of the same on Friday.
This is a big number, but Barty has shown she is more than capable of covering it and I expect her to earn the breaks of serve to do that.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Darya Kasatkina @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Radu Albot - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mikhail Kukushkin @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennys Sandgren @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Indian Wells Update: 4-4, - 0.60 Units (16 Units Staked, - 3.75% Yield)
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