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Saturday, 2 March 2019

Boxing Picks 2019- Brian Carlos Castano vs Erislandy Lara (March 2nd)

The first Boxing night of the season did not go the way I expected, but it was still a fascinating evening with cards from three different venues.

One losing fighter confirmed his retirement over the last few days after James DeGale released a statement that the defeat to Chris Eubank Jr would be the last of his professional career. It definitely feels like the right decision after DeGale made all his dreams come true over the last twelve years and it was clear last Saturday night that he is not the same fighter as the one that became World Champion on two occasions.

I think DeGale will get the chance to join old rival George Groves for some verbal sparring in the future as I believe he will be picked up by the television companies in the future. It's the end of the era for that generation of Super Middleweights now that both Groves and DeGale have headed into retirement, but the win for Eubank Jr has opened the doors for some big fights for him over the next couple of years.

There has been some talk of a rematch with Billy Joe Saunders either at 160 or 168, while Callum Smith is the man to beat in this Division and a fight between him and Eubank Jr would sell out a big Stadium in the North West.


On the same night Anthony Dirrell won a Technical Decision to become the WBC Super Middleweight Champion to prolong his career, but Brandon Rios was beaten in yet another war and has to be contemplating joining DeGale in retirement. Before the defeat to Humberto Soto Brandon Rios had spoken about fighting for a World Title, but he is miles away from the Champions and I don't see the point of him taking unnecessary punishment at this stage of his career when the reflexes and body are not where they once were.


This week we are going to see a couple of Cuban veterans return to the Boxing ring as Luis Ortiz and Erislandy Lara are both in action in the United States, while a showcase card is being shown on television in the United Kingdom headlined by Jordan Gill.

Both Ortiz and Lara are hoping to get back into the mix of fighting for World Titles, while Jordan Gill is making his way to that level. All three will be hoping 2019 will be a big year for them, but that also depends on them winning on Saturday and being able to move forward.


Richard Riakporhe vs Tommy McCarthy
There is definitely some hype behind Richard Riakporhe who is being mentored by Dillian Whyte and thus getting himself a strong platform to perform on.

The Cruiserweight is being fast tracked up the Rankings and he is now taking a step up in level when he meets up with Tommy McCarthy who is trying to get back into the British Title mix himself.

This is the first time Riakporhe is back in the ring since November when he was on the Tony Bellew-Oleksandr Usyk undercard. That underlines the kind of backing he has and Riakporhe showed some real heart to stop Sam Hyde in a fight he looked to be losing.

Looking at the scorecards after the fight showed that feeling was right, but Riakporhe is an improving fighter and has shown he carries his power through a fight. The damage was done to the Hyde eye which forced a corner stoppage which shows Riakporhe has decent pop in his shots and seven stoppages from his eight wins help.

Stopping Tommy McCarthy won't be easy and this is an opportunity of importance that is not lost on McCarthy. His one sole loss came against former British Champion Matty Askin who had knocked McCarthy down twice in the Fourth Round before winning on points, but he has since recovered to win four fights in a row although the standard of opposition has to be questioned.

He will feel his the better all around boxer in this fight, but the power of Riakporhe could be a difference maker. I think the promotion is behind Riakporhe and I believe he would have learned from the Hyde fight and can perhaps just use his power to make McCarthy a little timid in this one.

Tommy McCarthy did get Eight Rounds in the bank last month when beating Jiri Svacina, but I think Richard Riakporhe's power is going to be telling and I want to back him as the underdog to win this fight and keep moving towards the fight he wants most with Lawrence Okolie.


Anthony Sims Jr vs Mateo Damian Veron
There is no doubting the kind of talent Anthony Sims Jr has, but his career had been flagging before he decided to allow Eddie Hearn to guide him.

Anthony Sims Jr won all three fights he had in 2018 and is looking to be even more active in 2019 as he makes his way up the Light-Heavyweight Rankings. At the moment he is still somewhere between the 168 and 175 pound limits so his future may actually be at Super Middleweight, although Sims Jr may also be working out which Division is going to see him reach a World Title shot the quickest and also has the biggest fights for him.

He is scheduled to be back out in the ring next month, but this will be a sticky night for him if he does not give Mateo Damian Veron the respect he deserves.

Veron is a journeyman, but he has shown toughness at times and the Argentinian is off a big win over Lolenga Mock last month. Mock was only one win away from fighting for a vacant title in the Super Middleweight Division so the win for Veron was an impressive one, but this feels like nothing more than a tick along fight for Sims Jr who won't want to work too long knowing he will have another fight scheduled for less than seven weeks time from now.

I expect the American to have a relatively early night, but Veron may give him a couple of Rounds before being caught. Having a small interest in Sims Jr winning this fight in either Round Three or Four is the play even though fourteen of Sims Jr's seventeen fights have ended before the Third Round.

However his three fights in 2018 ended in Round Four, Round Six and Round Two and I think Veron has shown enough toughness to get past the first couple of Rounds.


Luis Ortiz vs Christian Hammer
Luis Ortiz might have actually enhanced his reputation in his wild defeat to Deontay Wilder when he fought for the WBC Title twelve months ago and King Kong is trying to earn another shot for a belt.

Since losing to Wilder there have been a couple of stoppage wins for Ortiz, but the fight with Christian Hammer represents a step up from the competition he has fought in his last couple of bouts.

Christian Hammer is entering his thirtieth fight as a professional and he has won twenty-four of his previous twenty-nine. There a couple of decent wins on his record with the most notable being the stoppage of David Price, but Hammer has come up short when going up against the best fighters as he was forced to quit against Tyson Fury and was beaten by a Unanimous Decision by Alexander Povetkin.

Much of the outcome of this fight is going to depend on how much punishment Hammer is willing to take as I do think he is going to end up eating some solid shots from Ortiz the longer the fight goes on. I do have a feeling that Ortiz can sometimes fight down to the level of a opponent if he feels comfortable and this is a Ten Rounder which could see Ortiz coasting to an easy points win if he so desires.

However I think Ortiz is going to want to put the foot down and make sure he gets Hammer out of there. The Romanian has shown some durability which makes me think he can last through the first half of the fight before Ortiz starts picking him apart in the second half of the fight as fatigue and the accumulation of the punches begins to take affect.

Hammer has been stopped in three of his five defeats and two of those have come after the Fifth Round. He did go the distance with Alexander Povetkin, but I believe Ortiz is the bigger puncher and he can find a way to earn the stoppage in the second half of the fight to make a statement to the big names in the Heavyweight Division.


Brian Carlos Castano vs Erislandy Lara
An eleventh month lay off following a narrow, tough defeat to Jarrett Hurd may have given Erislandy Lara the chance to recharge his batteries as he returns to the ring this Saturday.

Throughout his career Lara has been able to give some of the best names in the sport a tough going over and his last bout with Hurd was no different. A knock down in the Twelfth Round was the difference on the night and Lara is very much hoping a win in this bout will set him up for a chance to have a rematch with Swift.

The WBA Title is on the line as Brian Carlos Castano defends the belt for the first time in a bid to announce himself in the Division. The Argentinian is unbeaten through fifteen fights, but this is clearly a significant step up for him and he is fighting someone who can match his amateur experience and in a lot of respects surpass his achievements.

He might be the shorter man, but Lara has the significant reach advantage and he is still the boxer who can use all of his experience and skills to win this one by a comfortable points margin. There are questions to answer as Lara is off a brutal loss which would have been very tough on anyone, let alone someone with a 35 year old body and I do have to wonder if he is going to be the same fighter he was going into the Unification with Jarrett Hurd.

A long lay off is always a concern, but his opponent has actually been out of the ring for longer having last fought back in March 2018. Of course Castano is not quite as battle worn as Lara who has had some tough, tough fights in his career already, but he is going to have to step up a couple of levels if the Cuban is anywhere near his best.

The risk here may be banking on Lara to have left something in the ring in the defeat to Jarrett Hurd, but I believe Lara is back because the fire is still burning within. He has been the victim of some controversial scoring in the past, but I think Lara will make it clear that he is the boxer most in control of this fight and he can use his skills to earn a Decision and move back into contention in the loaded 154 Light Middleweight Division.

MY PICKS: Richard Riakporhe to Win @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Anthony Sims Jr to Win Between 3-4 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Luis Ortiz to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Erislandy Lara to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2019: 0-4, - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield)

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