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Friday, 6 November 2015

Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (November 6th)

The tennis season has proved to be a frustrating one for me as players continue to fall off when I am not expecting them to do that. Bad luck coupled with some bad picks haven't helped the cause, but hopefully the 2016 season is going to be a lot better and get back to the profits that were coming out of the tennis seasons in previous years.

On Friday we have reached the Paris Masters Quarter Finals and a number of matches that we could potentially be seeing at the World Tour Finals next week in London. It is also a chance for Andy Murray to really put together the points that will see him confirm his place as the World Number 2 for the season following Roger Federer's early exit to John Isner.

Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Andy Murray has been playing like a man on a mission this week as he fine tunes the end of his season to ensure he is at full strength for the Davis Cup Final. He has beaten both Borna Coric and David Goffin without breaking a sweat and has a strong recent record against Richard Gasquet.

You won't want to underestimate Gasquet who has all the skills to match Murray on the court, while also looking a little stronger mentally in the last couple of years. However, he will have to serve very well to keep up with the way Murray has been playing this week and that might not be possible if the World Number 2 plays to the level he has been.

Gasquet did beat Kei Nishikori, but he did allow seven break points in that match and someone like Murray is unlikely to pass up those opportunities. Murray has been taking his chances when they have come his way this week and I do think he will be a little too good both on the serve and return.

After some tough rallies, I am looking for Murray to move through 75, 63.

David Ferrer - 1.5 games v John Isner: The big test for John Isner is backing up his big win over Roger Federer by beating an opponent he has struggled against in the past. However the only time Isner has beaten David Ferrer was at the Paris Masters so he might appreciate the conditions and venue here.

It is a big test not only because Isner has to pick himself up from an emotional win, but the fact that Ferrer has been playing at a very high level at the back end of the season. Since the US Open, Ferrer has won two titles and it is only a long absence in the middle of the season which has seen the Spaniard drop down the World Rankings, although still good enough to make the Tour Finals.

The faster conditions should give Isner a chance to dominate behind serve and that might allow him to take a swing on the return. That is where Ferrer has to be careful, but Isner has had difficulties backing up his big wins through his career.

I think that might be the key to this match and I like Ferrer's chances of getting the better of Isner over three sets. However, I think it is the Spaniard who will earn a vital break of serve that proves to be the difference maker in the contest and allows him to cover this small number of games.

Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: I can't imagine this match will be as one-sided as when Rafael Nadal dismissed Stan Wawrinka in Shanghai last month, but I do think Nadal is on the way back up the World Rankings for the right reasons.

The consistency is not quite at the level that saw Rafael Nadal reach the World Number 1 position and clearly become the best player on the Tour. However, the last few weeks have definitely seen an improvement in his performances even if he is still not quite as close to Novak Djokovic as he would like.

It does give some positives for Nadal to take into the 2016 season and I am sure the Spaniard wants two big tournaments to end the current year. Stan Wawrinka has given him trouble in the last few meetings before Shanghai and he had won two in a row against Nadal, but I think he has been a little less focused down the stretch.

His own inconsistencies will give Nadal plenty of chances in this one, but this could be the match of the day in the Quarter Finals. After a battle, I do like Nadal coming through and winning this one 63, 36, 63 to move into another Semi Final since the US Open.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-4, - 6.34 Units (10 Units Staked, - 63.4% Yield)

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