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Friday, 20 November 2015

ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Picks 2015 (November 20th)

Group A has proved to be a very frustrating one for me to be honest as a couple of lacklustre performances from the top players helped the underdogs come through on Thursday.

Frustrating, but the week is still in decent shape and I hope that is the worst day left of this tournament with Group B concluding on Friday.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v David Ferrer: Watching Rafael Nadal over the last couple of months of the season has been like watching him at something like his best. He isn't quite up to the level that saw him win numerous Grand Slam titles and reach World Number 1, but the length in the groundstrokes is getting much better and there is no doubting that the confidence is returning.

Nadal is quite an open book with the media and while he was criticised earlier in the year for admitting his confidence isn't where it should be, he has been a lot more positive more recently. Other players have also noticed with Roger Federer telling the press that he is expecting big things from Nadal in 2016 and I am with the 17 time Grand Slam Champion on that.

The Spaniard has already won this Group and now faces compatriot David Ferrer who knows this is his last match of the year. With a match against Novak Djokovic to come on Saturday, I do wonder if we will see a full effort from Nadal in this one, although the competitor in him is unlikely to 'tank'.

Matches between the pair have been gruelling affairs in the past and that will be a worry for Nadal with that match against Djokovic twenty-four hours later in mind. However, I think it will focus him to get this job done and keep the confidence rolling and I think Nadal understands the importance of keeping the wins coming.

One element that has changed recently is that Nadal has been more likely to pick to serve first in his matches and that is a key here. If he gets to serve first, I really do think he wins this one 63, 64, but even if Nadal serves second I do think he will have too much for Ferrer on the form both have shown this week.


Stan Wawrinka + 2.5 games v Andy Murray: The Davis Cup Final was casting a big shadow over Andy Murray's preparations for the World Tour Finals and I think that tournament might be at the forefront of his thoughts on Friday too. While Murray can still qualify for the Semi Final, he suffered what looked a slight niggle against Rafael Nadal at the end of that match on Wednesday and I do wonder if that plays on his mind on Friday.

The fact is that Murray is also going against Stan Wawrinka, a dangerous player who had a very good win over David Ferrer to preserve his chances of qualifying for the Semi Final too. That win was impressive as Wawrinka came from a break down to take the first set and then dominated, but he has to focus from the beginning of this match.

Wawrinka has had the better of his last couple of matches against Andy Murray but this is the first time they have met in over two years which is quite remarkable considering they have been top ten players in that time.

My feeling is that this tournament means a lot more to Wawrinka than it does to Murray and that niggle he felt against Nadal is likely to be in the back of his mind. Murray knows how big the Davis Cup Final is as a tournament he probably never really expected to have a chance of winning and it is easy to think that the focus is on next week considering Murray even talked about pulling out of this one a couple of months ago.

On the other hand, Wawrinka made it clear after the loss to Nadal that this tournament does mean a lot to him and I wouldn't be surprised if the Swiss Number 2 won this match outright. A rematch of the controversial Semi Final against Roger Federer from last season would make great viewing, but I will take the safety of the games from this one.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 6-4, + 2.88 Units (20 Units Staked, + 14.4% Yield)

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