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Thursday, 19 November 2015

ATP World Tour Finals Day 5 Picks 2015 (November 19th)

The ATP World Tour Finals continue on Thursday and we will know the first two Semi Finalists and where they have finished in the Group. Of course Roger Federer has moved through to the final four once again in London after a surprising win over Novak Djokovic, but all three other players in the Group are still alive.

It is Roger Federer versus Kei Nishikori up first before Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych take over the night session.

Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Kei Nishikori: After a convincing couple of wins over Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer will feel very confident he can complete the sweep in the Group. That would allow him to finish as winner of the Group and mean he will play either Andy Murray or Stan Wawrinka in the Semi Final on Saturday.

It isn't a meaningless match for Kei Nishikori either having bounced back from his defeat to Novak Djokovic to beat Tomas Berdych in three sets. That performance against Berdych would have given Nishikori some confidence, but the Japanese player has struggled the last couple of times he has played Roger Federer including a fairly comprehensive defeat to him in the Group Stage of the World Tour Finals at the end of 2014.

Federer has looked very focused in his two matches and barring the opening sloppy service game against Tomas Berdych, he has rarely been troubled on serve with only one other break of serve given up. That confidence should give him a clear edge against Nishikori who is still struggling a little with a shoulder issue and who has given up quite a lot of energy to see off Berdych two days ago.

As long as Federer can serve well, he will have the edge over Nishikori who is likely going to give up opportunities to break his serve. I think the latter is more competitive than in his defeat to Djokovic, but I do think Federer is playing too well for him at the moment and is able to come through 75, 63.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Depending on what happens in the first match, Tomas Berdych might still have a chance of progressing through to the Semi Final with a win over Novak Djokovic. Any kind of win for Roger Federer earlier in the day would mean a 2-0 win for Tomas Berdych is enough to get through to the Semi Final, but beating Djokovic in straight sets is far from an easy task.

Novak Djokovic was a little dismissive of the loss in the Group to Roger Federer and felt he 'handed it to (Federer)' in the second set, comments that didn't go down too well with Federer. The World Number 1 admitted he had an off day and that could be a big problem for Tomas Berdych who has been dominated by Djokovic in the past.

This is potentially the last match of the 2015 season for Tomas Berdych so you have to think he will put in a big effort to try and extend his season. However, Berdych will be out if he drops a set in this one regardless of a Federer win and I think that might be a reason he perhaps drops his form in this match.

He is also playing Djokovic who is going to have a lot to prove back on the court after a disappointing loss to Federer. The World Number 1 has been in dominant form prior to that loss although Berdych is one player who got to two tie-breakers against him and was certainly close to an upset at the Paris Masters.

However those courts play faster than the ones in London and Djokovic has protected his serve very well against Berdych in their last couple of matches here. Last season Djokovic crushed Berdych for the loss of just four games and he has won over 40% of points against the Berdych serve while giving up less than 30% on his own serve in the last two matches against him on these courts.

After taking a tight first set, Djokovic may be able to run away with this match as Berdych begins to think about his off-season with his own chances to qualify for the Semi Finals gone. I like Djokovic to win this one 64, 62.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 6-2, + 6.88 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)

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