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Monday, 16 November 2015

ATP World Tour Finals Day 2 Picks 2015 (November 16th)

It was a very solid day for the picks on the opening day of the World Tour Finals as both the favourites won their matches in convincing fashion. I think that puts Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in the driving seat in the Group ahead of their match against one another on Tuesday which will likely be a Group winner decider.

Federer will feel he has beaten the 'best of the rest' in the Group with his win over Tomas Berdych, but Novak Djokovic is in such ruthless form at the moment that I am not sure anyone is going to be able to stop him.

On current form, Djokovic is going to go into the Australian Open as a very strong favourite in the first Grand Slam of 2016. That is a Slam he has loved to play at over the years but I haven't seen anyone that looks capable of bridging the gap to him barring playing a once in a lifetime kind of match in the best of five format.

On Monday, Group B opens up the play with the British Number 1 Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal the headline makers. Stan Wawrinka and David Ferrer aren't coming to London with the mentality of making up the numbers either and I think this is the better of the two Groups in terms of competitiveness rather than having the players that are favoured to win the tournament.

Hopefully I will put together another couple of winners after the success of Sunday.

Andy Murray - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: The Davis Cup Final is looming large, but Andy Murray's run at the Paris Masters shows that he is ready to compete in the last couple of events he will be playing. A tie on the clay courts needs some adjustment and Murray has been practicing on that surface in preparation for the World Tour Finals and I do wonder if that will show up on the court, although I am expecting him to see off David Ferrer in his opening match.

These players played a competitive match at the Paris Masters that was eventually won by Andy Murray in straight sets, although David Ferrer could easily have taken the second set.

Both players know what to expect from the other on the slower surface that usually is in play at the O2 Arena and I expect a lot of grinding rallies. Neither Murray nor Ferrer can look at their serve as one that will be protected at all times, but Murray does have a slight edge with the first serve definitely the biggest of the serves in action.

The head to head now leads 11-6 in favour of Murray, but that has a lot to do withe the fact that the British player has won four in a row. He usually has enough to produce a winning set with a couple of breaks of serve which means Murray should have every chance to cover even if this match goes into a third set.

With the spread set as it is for this opening match of Group B, I think Murray will win a battling match in three sets 46, 62, 64.

Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: There have been some solid tournaments for Rafael Nadal since his surprising defeat at the US Open to Fabio Fognini and he will be looking to consolidate his World Number 5 Ranking. The match with Stan Wawrinka has looked the best one of the opening Group games especially after seeing how competitive their match was at the Paris Masters.

It could be the key match for both players in this Group with the losing player knowing they would likely have to win their last couple of games including against home favourite Andy Murray. That could increase the tension for both Nadal and Wawrinka and I think this could be one spectacular match to watch.

Stan Wawrinka got the better of Nadal in Paris, but the Spaniard will know he let his opponent off the hook. Nadal served for the first set an inexplicably missed a smash that would likely have seen him win the set before going down in two tie-breakers, while Wawrinka will be confident having won three of the last four in the head to head.

That includes a win on the clay courts earlier this season so Wawrinka won't mind the slower conditions in London as it allows him to set up his shots and crack winners. However, I do think Nadal has really improved his confidence in recent weeks and he did crush Wawrinka for the loss of three games in Shanghai.

Both players should have their moments in this one and Monday might prove to be a day where both matches end up going three sets compared with the straight set wins we saw on Sunday. However, it is after some tough work that I think Nadal earns a very important win on Monday and one that gives him a great chance to reach the Semi Final.

In three sets, I expect Nadal to come through 64, 67, 64.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 2-0, + 3.60 Units (4 Units Staked, + 90% Yield)

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