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Tuesday, 3 November 2015

Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (November 3rd)

The eight players that will be playing at the World Tour Finals have been decided, but the final ATP event of the season prior to that tournament in London is played in Paris this week.

With the week gap between the end of the Paris Masters and the beginning of the ATP World Tour Finals, it means the top players have no excuses for putting in a poor week. The likes of Roger Federer and Andy Murray are both desperate to finish as the World Number 2, while two big tournaments for Rafael Nadal could see him potentially challenge Stan Wawrinka for the World Number 4 spot.

Those are the interesting aspects that will come out of this week as the Tennis 2015 Season begins to come to a close.

Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 games v Edouard Roger-Vasselin: The courts in Paris have traditionally been some of the fastest on the Tour and that makes this a dangerous number for Ivo Karlovic to cover. While his serve will be aided, the limited return ability could be highlighted on this faster surface, although Edouard Roger-Vasselin has to pick up his own play.

Roger-Vasselin has come through the Qualifiers which will have given him confidence, but the veteran is struggling with his World Ranking. That means he is spending more time off the main ATP Tour and I am not sure he will have enough to stay with Karlovic if the latter is serving well.

Even at 36 years old, Karlovic is still producing effective tennis as he is able to maintain his health and stamina with the monster serve he possesses. That produces plenty of scoreboard pressure and Karlovic is able to have a 'swing' at the return of serve and hope he can put together a couple of winners to go with a couple of mistakes from his opponent and earn a break through.

That might be how he is able to earn a big break in this one and Karlovic has shown he is capable of doing that. The faster surface is a concern, but Roger-Vasselin is capable of throwing in a sloppy service game that leads to a 76, 64 win for Karlovic.

Thomaz Bellucci + 6.5 games v Novak Djokovic: The World Number 1 has won three tournaments in a row and was a winner in his last two tournaments in dominating fashion. He will be a big favourite to win in Paris this week, but Novak Djokovic might not have enough to cover such a big number on what is some of the faster courts on Tour.

It isn't as though he has taken care of Thomaz Bellucci easily in the past either and the Brazilian has come through one match here already. Prior to that it had been a difficult end to the season for Bellucci and that has to be a concern for him against someone of the quality of Novak Djokovic, although Bellucci hasn't been blown away in recent defeats.

The lefty serve and the heavy forehand could see Bellucci come through some more games than the layers are expecting and I like this number of games being given to him.

One major concern has to be the fact that Novak Djokovic has covered this number in 8 of his last 10 best of three set matches. However, I think Bellucci will be able to get within the number by perhaps earning a surprise break of serve in one of the first two sets and ending up going down 64, 63.

MY PICKS: Ivo Karlovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thomaz Bellucci + 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

1 comment:

  1. First timer in this blog, glad we agree that karlovic can move on to the 2 rd of pari atp tourney. I put some money on him, hoping he wins. I would like to be a contributor to your blog, for college football and nfl. Please let me know if that would be fine with you. I want to do somewrite ups and what not and share thoughts on games. I'll check back tomorrow to see if you reply. Thank you and gl on karlovic!