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Wednesday, 4 November 2015

Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (November 4th)

I have to say the number of tie-breakers that have gone against me over the last few weeks is hilarious and Ivo Karlovic was the latest to lose a match winning tie-breaker in the second set and go on and lose the match.

It has been a frustrating season with all things considered, but I still think the criteria is being picked up correctly but has been offered very little fortune.

Anyway, the Paris Masters continues on Wednesday and both of my picks come from matches played later in the evening.

Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Some of the motivation has to have gone from Kevin Anderson at the end of a long season when he has had his best success on the Tour. It shouldn't have completely evaporated as a strong showing in Paris might see him end the year in the Top Ten of the World Rankings which isn't to be sniffed at.

It isn't something Anderson has had the opportunity to do in his career so I expect the big South African is ready to put in one more big effort, even if the World Tour Finals is beyond him. I don't think Anderson has a better chance to end the year in the Top Ten so I do think he will want to end the season in a more positive note than his last two tournaments.

Dominic Thiem is also looking to hold onto a Top Twenty spot in the World Rankings, but the younger players do seem to have a little more taken out of them after a long year out on Tour. That has shown from a number of early exits that Thiem has suffered in the weeks since the US Open and he also has to get over the mental hurdle of being 3-0 down to Anderson on the head to head.

In fact Thiem is yet to win a set against Anderson and will be put under immense pressure from a serve that should be effective on the faster indoor courts in Paris. I also still feel Thiem can be troubled by the scoreboard and has a sloppy service game in his locker which could produce a 76, 64 win for Anderson.

Andreas Seppi + 5.5 games v Roger Federer: Most layers aren't entertaining the thought of Andreas Seppi getting within these numbers in the Second Round match to be played on Wednesday, but some have put their heads over the parapet.

One is offering a very generous price on Andreas Seppi with this many games in hand and it might be too many for Roger Federer to cover considering their matches in the past. The Seppi serve might be a weakness, but Roger Federer perhaps likes to feed off a little more pace on the backhand return than he gets and so forces too much leading to errors.

And while Federer's serve is still a potent weapon, someone like Seppi will get one or two chances to break serve as an effective returner. In the past it might have been more difficult for him to do that, but Federer likes attacking the net and so a low return becomes very effective for Seppi to force errors.

There is no doubting Federer's motivation as he has made it clear he wants to finish as World Number 2 and has every reason to believe he can do that over the last two tournaments. But Federer has also shown he is less likely to push for a second break of serve in sets as he maintains his fitness through a week and covering this number of games hasn't been a real strength for him.

Only once in his last seven matches against Seppi would Federer have got over this number and I don't think it happens in this tournament either.

Roberto Bautista Agut + 3.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: It has not been a great season for Roberto Bautista Agut compared with last season, but he remains an overachiever in my eyes. The Spaniard doesn't have a lot of flash about his game, but he works hard and I think he can give Jo-Wilfried Tsonga something to think about in this Second Round match.

There has to be some disappointment in the Tsonga camp that he has fallen short of reaching the World Tour Finals, but a Top Ten finish in the World Rankings has to be motivation enough. However, I don't think Tsonga is the best returner out there and these courts plus an under-rated Bautista Agut first serve could see the Spaniard perhaps even steal a set as well as staying within the number.

Tsonga was the better player when he won a three setter in Canada earlier this year, but that was still a closer match than needed as Bautista Agut was capable of winning some of the longer rallies. He will look to get Tsonga into those positions again and hope the Frenchman is perhaps looking ahead to the end of the season and perhaps not as willing to dig deep as Bautista Agut usually is.

With a win under his belt and a work ethic that can be hard to match by a flamboyant player like Tsonga, I will take the games being given to Bautista Agut here.

MY PICKS: Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi + 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Paris Masters Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)

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