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Tuesday, 17 November 2015

ATP World Tour Finals Day 3 Picks 2015 (November 17th)

It has been a very positive start to this tournament for the favourites as all four have won the Singles rubbers played and all while covering the handicap that has been set out for them.

On Tuesday we have the second round of matches from Group A as we get to see the first player that is likely eliminated from the tournament and also who is likely to end up being Group winner. The tournament schedule sees the two losing players from Sunday and the two winning players on the same day play one another and so all the attention will be on Novak Djokovic versus Roger Federer, a potential match that could be replayed later in the week in the Final.

First off Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori look to get back into the mix in a very difficult Group having both been beaten comfortably by Federer and Djokovic respectively.

Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Both Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori are looking for a vital win on Tuesday following opening day losses and the losing player will likely be out of the tournament by the evening. That puts pressure on both players, but I have to favour Tomas Berdych to get the better of Kei Nishikori simply because the latter is having a serious problem with his shoulder that is clearly bothering him.

That issue has perhaps taken more of the shoulder, but this is the last tournament of the season for Nishikori and I still expect him to give it his all this week in London. Unfortunately I am not sure how much Nishikori has in the tank and superior head to head with Tomas Berdych might not mean anything in this match.

If Nishikori is struggling to serve, Berdych should earn plenty of chances to break serve, but he will have to serve well himself to keep Nishikori from fighting back and winning the match. I think Berdych will be the more disappointed with his performance on Sunday than Nishikori because he had no excuses for being dismissed so easily by Federer.

It does make it difficult for Berdych to qualify knowing he faces Djokovic in his last match and the conditions perhaps don't suit the Czech player. It is more difficult to hit through opponents on this surface and someone like Nishikori can frustrate him. However, I think Nishikori might already be looking ahead to finishing off the 2015 season and I like Berdych to win this one 64, 64.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Roger Federer: It has been a long time since Novak Djokovic was beaten on an indoor hard court and he really enjoys the conditions at the O2 Arena. His recent form has been so spectacular that you would do well to ignore the handicap mark in this one despite the fact he is going up against Roger Federer who certainly has pushed Djokovic in the two Grand Slam Finals they have competed in in 2015.

However, Roger Federer hasn't been in the best form since the US Open and I think he will do well to keep this one close against Djokovic. Neither player will want to show off any surprises they can spring on the other in a Group match, but Novak Djokovic is certainly the more consistent player.

The slower conditions will make it that much more difficult for Federer to hit through Djokovic in this one and it has to be noted that recent Federer wins over the World Number 1 have come on very quick surfaces.

We have yet to see a three setter and this is a match that might be one that some believe will go all the way. Not for me though and I am of the belief that Novak Djokovic's level is going to be very hard for Federer to match through this contest and the World Number 1 will underline his position by winning this one 75, 64.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 4-0, + 7.06 Units (8 Units Staked, + 88.25% Yield)

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